davy jones consultancy what’s driving the changes to our public services davy jones horsham...
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Davy Jones Consultancy
What’s Driving the Changes to Our Public
Services
Davy Jones
Horsham District Community Partnership Annual Conference
16th April 2012
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Main drivers for change• Reduce public deficit
• Shrink the state
• More Localism
• More power to local people – Big Society
• Climate change & greener government
• Demographic social changes
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Davy Jones Consultancy
World economic crisis – biggest since 1930s –who
caused it?
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Bankers !
Percentage of people in UK who think banks are well run has fallen from 90% in 1983 to 19% in 2009 – the largest change in public attitudes ever recorded in the British Social Attitudes series.
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Bankers !
Percentage of people in UK who think banks are well run has fallen from 90% in 1983 to 19% in 2009 – the largest change in public attitudes ever recorded in the British Social Attitudes series.
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• Councils revenue loss – grant, benefits & other changes (Brighton & Hove losing 33% of income over 4 years)
• Councils “can expect 5-7% real term reductions per year till at least 2016/17” (Tony Travers in LGC) – 214,000 jobs gone
• New responsibilities – Public Health, Benefits. Localism Act – & big changes to key partners (health/police)
• Localism Act changes, NHS Act, Police Act • Impact on workforce – job losses, pay freezes, regional pay,
pension contributions up• Impact on service users – service cuts at same time as
living standards falling for most • Cannot be achieved by “salami-slicing” - what to do ?
Davy Jones Consultancy
Impact for public services
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Impact for public services
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Solutions ?• Strategic review of all major services – “blank sheet”
• Work across boundaries with all partners
• Unlock knowledge/skills of staff in service re-design
• Involve service users in improving services
• Take local citizens/users with you:
• service/budget literacy work
• setting priorities/budgets
• involvement in tough decisions
• Equalities Impact Assessments vital !
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Public sector deficit mythDeficit not same as spending – it is the difference between income and spending, so if income from taxes goes down…
Deficit as % GDP is lower than for most of 20th century
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Shrinking the state•Western economy desperate for new markets
•Public sector biggest opportunity
•Explicit “privatisation” of NHS & Education is politically unacceptable
•But one step at a time, extending choice…. opening up services to market forces…..
•50% secondary schools now Academies
•NHS, Schools, Benefits, Roads…
•New Open Public Services Paper – new right to choice legislation proposed
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Example: the NHS
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Davy Jones Consultancy
• Conservatives’ explicit election pledge for no top-down reorganisation & no cuts to NHS
• 33,000 NHS jobs gone already, according to ONS
• 3 layers of management has become…7 layers !
• Costs estimates vary – most believe at least £2bn
• Every health body/union opposes the NHS Bill
• Only 12% GPs think it will improve patient care
• Examples of hospitals in Cambridge & Warwickshire already seeking full privatisation
• Up to 49% of services can go to private sector
• Monitor “watchdog” run by private health experts
• DH has refused to issue risk registers on changes
My concerns on the NHS
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• Number of people aged 85 in UK will double in next 20 years - impact on adult social care
• Migration patterns – labour shortages
• Pensions example shows need to separate fact from fiction !
Davy Jones Consultancy
Challenge of changing demographics
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• Average public sector annual pension – less than £5,000pa (£100pw)
• Average FTSE Director annual pension - £2.8m (nearly 500 times higher)
• Cost of tax relief on pensions of top 1% earners (pensions of £150k pa) greater than entire savings in pension reform
• Hutton report shows cost of public sector pensions set to fall as % of GDP for next decades
Davy Jones Consultancy
The great pensions myths
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Davy Jones Consultancy
The great pensions myths
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Climate change
• 57 months to “point of no return” - New Economics Foundation doomsday clock
• “Greenest government” ever ?
• Government Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) “ a fiasco” (CBI)
• Carbon budgeting & behaviour change – West Sussex CC & Brighton
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• Raised expectations ! Yet contradictory• NHS Act – is it localism ?• Police Reform Act – Elected Commissioners
….but over very large areas• Localism Act: General Power of Competence• Neighbourhood planning • Community right to challenge• Community right to buy• Directly elected mayors• Council tax referendum – is it needed ?• But is it a bit of a damp squib…?
Recent legislation
Davy Jones Consultancy
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Doesn’t localism imply control of local finances ?
• Council Tax – one of few levers to affect services
• Parishes able to raise precepts
• Business rates remain centralised
• Recent Council Tax freeze
• Was it a “bribe” / threats
• Response of We Love Local Government website
• 3.5% “cap” – referendum trigger
• Surely councils should set council tax levels, not Government !
Davy Jones Consultancy
Localism & local taxation
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Michael Heseltine (2012): “The idea that we have
local government in England is a fiction”
Davy Jones Consultancy
Localism
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Freedom stirs……• LGA & Graham Allen MP pamphlet• Local authorities should be created in law as independent & their duties codified• Political independence must mean financial independence: central Government must be removed from financing councils• Half income tax take returned to councils through independent redistribution commission & other tax-raising powers
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Big Society
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Big Society• Some good elements – greater public self reliance,
more say over local area, more community spirit• Beyond that? Still not understood despite relaunches• New Big Society Bank – but commercial terms only• Consultation to be launched on extending
neighbourhood councils• Communities First local funds being distributed • Combined with huge cuts in budgets / services &
support infrastructure, public cynicism is not unreasonable…….
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Big Society
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• People expect services to be responsive, available 24/7, with appropriate choice
• People expect to have a say – 72% want to influence local decisions, 32% feel they can
• But they feel powerless – changes done “to them”• “Consultation” almost a dirty word – little trust in
“engagement” either !• All parties seem the same – no choice (Bradford West -
maverick alternatives) • How do we break out of this vicious cycle ?
Davy Jones Consultancy
Public expectations
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• Budget cuts: it makes sense to get citizens to help
• Government “community budgets” programme• PB increasingly popular round the world – New
York – $6m from city councillors’ delegated funds• Over 150 UK areas now experimented• Adur’s “Pot of Gold”, Brighton youth PB event,
Gosport 6 PB events, Kent councillor budgets
Davy Jones Consultancy
Involve public in “tough choices” - Participatory
Budgeting
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Contact
Davy Jones
07932 [email protected]
k www.davyjonesconsultancy.co.uk
Twitter:@davyjones2
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Do you trust these people to tell the truth ?
Judges 80%Senior police 73%TV journalists 58%Top civil servants 41%Ministers 26%MPs in general 26%Tabloid journalists 16%
Two-thirds think politics is corrupt** Sunday Times poll 1/4/12
Davy Jones Consultancy
Trust in Politicians
Committee on Standards in Public Life, 2011
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Getting things in perspective
Bank bailout figure of £1.3trn taken from Bank of England website
Tax and fraud evasion by rich variously estimated at between £80-120bn
Benefit fraud figure of £3.3bn taken from DWP report on 2009/10
Billions of pounds
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Davy Jones Consultancy
Where has all the money gone ?
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* Wall Street Journal, May 31 2011** John Lanchester – Whoops 2010*** Sunday Times Rich List 2011**** UNICEF/WHO report September 2011
• World: 12.5m millionaires (less than 0.2%) own 39% wealth ($47.4 trillion)*
• Developed countries:, the top 1% of households own estimated 70-90% of all private financial and real estate wealth **
• UK: 0.3% of the population owns two thirds of the land** • UK: 1000 richest millionaires (less than 0.002%) have assets of
almost £400 billion***• Income gap between top and bottom 10% multiplied 14 times in
UK/USA in last 25 years• “Only” 21,000 children die EVERY DAY from preventable diseases,
hunger, lack of water****
Davy Jones Consultancy
Where has all the money gone ?