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<ul><li><p>Bationo A., Dougbedji F., Kapran </p><p>I.; Vlek P., Naab J., Zougmore R., </p><p>Ouattara M., Tabo R., Mando A., </p><p>Agricultural risks linked to soil, water </p><p>and climate in Sub-Saharan Africa </p></li><li><p>Contents </p><p> Introduction </p><p> Risk: links to inherent low soil fertility and low use of inputs </p><p> Risk: links to water and climate </p><p> Risk mitigation </p><p> Conclusion </p></li><li><p>The Gloomy Picture </p><p> Number of Africans living below the poverty line (</p></li><li><p>Low Investment by Banks </p></li><li><p>Growth in yields </p><p>0</p><p>1</p><p>2</p><p>3</p><p>4</p><p>5</p><p>6</p><p>7</p><p>8</p><p>9</p><p>10</p><p>1866</p><p>1871</p><p>1876</p><p>1881</p><p>1886</p><p>1891</p><p>1896</p><p>1901</p><p>1906</p><p>1911</p><p>1916</p><p>1921</p><p>1926</p><p>1931</p><p>1936</p><p>1941</p><p>1946</p><p>1951</p><p>1956</p><p>1961</p><p>1966</p><p>1971</p><p>1976</p><p>1981</p><p>1986</p><p>1991</p><p>1996</p><p>2001</p><p>yiel</p><p>d in</p><p> ton</p><p>/ha</p><p>USA SSA L America China</p><p>Low in Africa due to inability of farmers to mitigate risks </p></li><li><p>Cereal production per capita in SSA </p><p>Source: FAOSTATS (2010) </p><p>y = -0.6484x + 176.83 R = 0.3695 </p><p>100</p><p>120</p><p>140</p><p>160</p><p>180</p><p>200</p><p>220</p><p>196</p><p>1</p><p>196</p><p>3</p><p>196</p><p>5</p><p>196</p><p>7</p><p>196</p><p>9</p><p>197</p><p>1</p><p>197</p><p>3</p><p>197</p><p>5</p><p>197</p><p>7</p><p>197</p><p>9</p><p>198</p><p>1</p><p>198</p><p>3</p><p>198</p><p>5</p><p>198</p><p>7</p><p>198</p><p>9</p><p>199</p><p>1</p><p>199</p><p>3</p><p>199</p><p>5</p><p>199</p><p>7</p><p>199</p><p>9</p><p>200</p><p>1</p><p>200</p><p>3</p><p>200</p><p>5</p><p>200</p><p>7</p><p>Pro</p><p>du</p><p>cti</p><p>o (</p><p>Kg</p><p>) </p></li><li><p>Africa is spending 50 billion </p><p>dollars annually on food import </p><p>Afr</p><p>ica P</p><p>opula</p><p>tion (</p><p>Bill</p><p>ion) </p></li><li><p>0.30</p><p>0.35</p><p>0.39</p><p>0.44</p><p>0.48</p><p>77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88</p><p>Arable Land and Land in Permanent Crops Per Capita</p></li><li><p> The yield gap and limiting factors </p><p>Potential yield </p><p>(Experimentation) </p><p>Actual yield </p><p>Yield gap </p><p>Biophysical limitations - Soil fertility - Water - Germplasm -etc Which inputs are lacking? </p><p>Socio economic and policy limitations - Knowledge - Credit Availability - Input/output Market access - Policy, e.t.c Why inputs are not used? </p></li><li><p>The Yield Gap: Some observations from sub-Saharan Africa </p><p>0 </p><p>1 </p><p>2 </p><p>3 </p><p>4 </p><p>5 </p><p>6 </p><p>7 </p><p>8 </p><p>On-farm On-station Commercial </p><p>Gra</p><p>in y</p><p>ield</p><p> (t </p><p>ha </p><p>-1 ) </p><p>Zambia Tanzania </p></li><li><p>Risk: link to inherent low soil fertility and low use of </p><p>fertilizers </p></li><li><p>12 </p><p>Land degradation </p><p> Africa loses equivalent of $4b per year due to soil nutrient mining </p><p> An estimated $42b in income are lost and 6 million hectares of productive land threatened every year due to land degradation </p><p> Despite about U$ 20b of commercial imports and U$ 2b of food aid, 26% of the people are undernourished </p><p> Unsustainable soils for crop production occupy 55%, prime 9.6%, high potential 6.7% and medium and low potential 28.3% </p></li><li><p>Vent de sable </p></li><li><p>Macronutrient application versus loss in Africa </p><p>4.4</p><p>0.5</p><p>3.0</p><p>0.8</p><p>0.3 0.2</p><p>0.0</p><p>0.5</p><p>1.0</p><p>1.5</p><p>2.0</p><p>2.5</p><p>3.0</p><p>3.5</p><p>4.0</p><p>4.5</p><p>5.0</p><p>N P KNutrients</p><p>Mil</p><p>lion</p><p> ton</p><p>s p</p><p>er y</p><p>ear</p><p>Loss</p><p>Applied</p></li><li><p>202</p><p>175</p><p>146</p><p>102</p><p>98</p><p>93</p><p>84</p><p>80</p><p>78</p><p>72</p><p>69</p><p>61</p><p>60</p><p>59</p><p>20</p><p>20</p><p>8Sub-Saharan Africa</p><p>Eurasia</p><p>Africa</p><p>Oceania</p><p>Central America</p><p>South Africa</p><p>North Africa</p><p>West Asia</p><p>Latin America</p><p>Eastern Europe</p><p>South America</p><p>World</p><p>North America</p><p>South Asia</p><p>Asia</p><p>Western Europe</p><p>East Asia</p><p>Per Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets, 2002/03 </p><p>(kg/ha)</p><p>Developing Markets Developed Markets</p><p>Transitional Markets World</p></li><li><p> Depleted soils reduce payoffs on </p><p>agricultural investments and ecosystem services </p><p> Efficiency of fertilizer and water inputs is reduced </p><p> Profitability and returns on labour are reduced </p><p> Vegetative cover is reduced </p><p> Water quality is reduced </p><p> Natural habitats are encroached upon </p><p> Above and below ground biodiversity is reduced </p><p> Carbon storage is reduced </p></li><li><p>Risk: Link to water and climate </p></li><li><p>19 </p><p>-10</p><p>-5</p><p>0</p><p>5</p><p>10</p><p>15</p><p>20</p><p>1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997</p><p>GDP g</p><p>row</p><p>th (%</p><p>)</p><p>-2.5</p><p>-1.5</p><p>-0.5</p><p>0.5</p><p>1.5</p><p>2.5</p><p>3.5</p><p>Rain</p><p>fall v</p><p>ariability (%</p><p>)</p><p>GDP growth (annual %) Rainfall</p><p>Climate vulnerability is already high and will </p><p>worsen with climate change </p><p>Rainfall variability &amp; GDP growth </p><p>Zimbabwe 1979-1997 </p><p>Global Food Markets Food Supply </p></li><li><p> -250</p><p>-200</p><p>-150</p><p>-100</p><p>-50</p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>1960 1970 1980 1990 2000</p><p>Years</p><p>Nati</p><p>on</p><p>al </p><p>rain</p><p>fall</p><p> in</p><p>dex: </p><p>Vari</p><p>ati</p><p>on</p><p> fro</p><p>m t</p><p>ren</p><p>d (</p><p>mm</p><p>)</p><p>-800</p><p>-600</p><p>-400</p><p>-200</p><p>0</p><p>200</p><p>400</p><p>600</p><p>800</p><p>To</p><p>tal </p><p>cere</p><p>al </p><p>pro</p><p>du</p><p>cti</p><p>on</p><p> - V</p><p>ari</p><p>ati</p><p>on</p><p> fro</p><p>m t</p><p>ren</p><p>d (</p><p>'000 t</p><p>on</p><p>s)</p><p>National rainfall index</p><p>Cereal production</p><p>Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production </p></li><li><p>Country Rainfall (R </p><p>- mm) </p><p>Potential </p><p>Evapotranspira</p><p>tion (PET - mm) </p><p>R/PET (%) Average Annual </p><p>Temperature </p><p>(oC) </p><p>Niamey </p><p>(Niger) </p><p>580 2046 28 29 </p><p>Lome </p><p>(Togo) </p><p>927 1243 75 28 </p><p>Kumasi </p><p>(Ghana) </p><p>2788 1216 229 26 </p><p>Paris </p><p>(France) </p><p>607 538 113 12 </p><p>Sources: (1). Agroclimatologie de l'Afrique de l'Ouest: Le Niger. M. V. K. Sivakumar et al. 1984. ICRISAT Buletin d'information No 19 </p><p>(2). Analyse pluviometrique du Togo pour une planification a long term (3). Cartograhie de l'evapotransporation potentiel: son utilisation pour la determination des besoin en eau d'irrigation. A. Darlot et C. Lecharpentier </p></li><li><p>Good soil </p><p> ECEC (nutrient reserves): 15 </p><p> Five times more water stored </p><p>Typical soil of Sahel </p><p> .ECEC (nutrient reserves): 1.0 </p><p> Low water storage </p><p>Soil B: 33% Clay and 5% </p><p>Organic Matter </p><p>Soil A: 3% Clay and 1% Organic Matter </p><p>Low Water Storage Capacity of Most African Soils </p></li><li><p>Risk of recurrent drought </p><p> Endemic droughts &amp; floods: 5%-25% GDP losses </p><p> High temporal rainfall </p><p>variability and high spatial soil nutrient heterogeneity </p><p>Africas natural legacy: extreme rainfall variability which reduces hydrological security </p></li><li><p>KENYA </p><p>Floods 1997-1998 : $2.39 billion infrastructure damage </p><p> Droughts 1998-2000 : $2.41 billion losses (16% of GDP) </p><p>Annual rainfall in Kenya 1956 1982 Variability of 35-40% around the </p><p>mean </p></li><li><p>IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA </p><p> CO2 enrichment </p><p> Temperature rise of 1.5 to 4 C this century </p><p> Fewer colder days and nights </p><p> Frequent hot days and nights </p><p> Arid areas will get drier, humid areas wetter </p><p> Increase in droughts and floods </p><p> Sea-level rise </p><p> Major desertification and soil salinization in some countries </p></li><li><p>Risk mitigation and adaptation </p></li><li><p>Conclusion </p><p>Our dream is to have a continent where children do not go to bed on empty stomachs </p></li><li><p>0500</p><p>1000</p><p>1500</p><p>2000</p><p>2500</p><p>3000</p><p>1960 1970 1980 1990</p><p>Grain</p><p> yield</p><p> (kg/h</p><p>a)Control</p><p>Fert + Manure</p><p>Fertilizer</p><p>Sorghum grain yield as affected by </p><p>mineral and organic fertilizers over time.</p></li><li><p>Grain yield (GY) and water use efficiency (WUE) for millet in Niger </p><p>Improved soil fertility enhances the water use efficiency of crops in the Sahel </p><p>4.25 1700 4.14 1570 +Fertilizers </p><p>2.04 780 1.25 460 - Fertilizers </p><p>WUE GY WUE GY </p><p>DOSSO SADORE Treatments </p></li><li><p>Signs of Hope: </p><p>Rehabilitation, Prevention, </p></li><li><p>Water-nutrient interactions: Zai example </p><p>Technology Sorghum yield (kg/ha) </p><p>Only planting pits </p><p>200 </p><p>Pit + cow dung </p><p>700 </p><p>Pit + Mineral fertilizers </p><p>1400 </p><p>Pit + Dung and fertilizers</p><p>1700 </p></li><li><p>Field multiplying of hybrid sorghum seeds </p></li><li><p>P fertilizer use: </p><p>- SSA: 1.6 kg P/ha </p><p>- Latin America: 7.9 kg P/ha </p><p>- Asia: 14.9 kg P/ha </p><p>About 80% of SSA soils are short of P </p></li><li><p>Phosphate rock deposits in SSA </p><p>80% of World Reserves </p></li></ul>