david revell, phd and others… csbpa coastal conditions...
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David Revell, PhDAnd others…
CSBPA Coastal Conditions 2018Bodega Bay, CA
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Beach front homeowners ask what will my house be worth in 30 years?Beach communities ask what will my beach look like in 30 years?Politicians ask how can I make everyone happy?
What if…?
How much does it cost?
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Do Nothing Accommodate
Protect Inland Relocation
Hybrid
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� Public vs Private perspectives� Typically sector focus � Green versus gray� Modeling of human management decisions� Often lack of economics to inform long term decisions� Needs evaluation of Maladaptation
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� Construction Costs� Escalating Maintenance Costs� Ecology� Recreation� Views� Aesthetics
Seawalls destroy beaches and views
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� Developed/ Yard – Private – structure / land value� Beach – Public - towel space, sand castles, tourists, locals� Intertidal – Public – surf fishing, beach walking� Subtidal – Public - Surfing, diving, kiteboarding,
� $ - willingness to pay, businesses, taxes, avoided costs� Natural defenses/ ecology – birds, marine mammals, water
filtration, erosion protection, aesthetics, human health
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� House = $3 million, armoring is $500K� Beach recreation= $? � Ecology= $? � Human Heath= $?� $ = too hard, don’t know = $0� So existing coastal management results� $3million> $500,000 + $0+ $0 +$0 = save the houseCCC Staff - Identify shortcomings, Recommend conditions, CCC approves
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� Beach Width vs Upland – Physical modeling (assumes erosion caused by accelerated erosion rates, not direct storm impacts)
� Physical and Economics over multiple horizons
� Recreation yes but not habitat valuation
� Narrow versus wide beach
For each Adaptation Strategy:• Armor• Relocate• Groins• Nourishment• Dune / Cobble Restoration
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• Upland protected• Dry sand beaches disappear 2050 - 2075• Only damp sand beaches by 2035 - 2065
• Upland 2-3 houses gone• Beaches remain
Revell Coastal et al 2016
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� Evaluated Armoring, Dune Restoration, Accommodation and Managed Retreat
� Beach Width vs Upland – Physical modeling (assumes erosion caused by accelerated erosion rates, and annualized 100 year storm impacts)
� Recreation but not habitat valuation
Rincon, Phil King, Everest, and Revell Coastal et al 2017
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Site Yearly Attendance Source %
surfers Value of SurfingTotal Recreational
Value
Rincon La ConchitaMussel ShoalsHobsonRincon Parkway NorthFaria CountyRincon Parkway SouthMandosEmma WoodC StreetSan BuenaventuraOxnard ShoresSilver StrandPort HuenemePoint Mugu
Total
350,000.00 BEACON 75%40,000.00 BEACON 25%10,000.00 BEACON 90%90,000.00 Interviews 76%
100,000.00 BEACON 30%100,000.00 Interviews 46%30,000.00 BEACON 55%
210,000.00 BEACON 80%240,000.00 CA State Parks 43%400,000.00 BEACON 97%500,000.00 CA State Parks 4%50,000.00 BEACON 15%
410,000.00 BEACON 33%50,000.00 BEACON 25%
470,000.00 CA State Parks 20%
3,050,000.00
17,062,500$ 20,562,500$ 650,000$ 1,850,000$ 585,000$ 625,000$
4,446,000$ 5,310,000$ 1,937,000$ 4,745,000$ 3,003,000$ 5,155,000$ 1,072,500$ 1,612,500$
10,920,000$ 12,600,000$ 6,676,800$ 12,168,000$
25,116,000$ 25,660,000$ 1,300,000$ 20,500,000$
487,500$ 2,187,500$ 8,794,500$ 19,782,500$
812,500$ 2,312,500$ 6,110,000$ 21,150,000$
88,973,300.00 156,220,500.00
Revell Coastal in review
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� Most cases, managed retreat wins typically between the mid to late century (+ 50 years) in the long term� Narrower beaches or higher erosion faster� Exception was Oxnard Shores (highest urban density)
� Habitat valuation still difficult CCC input would help� Various implementation mechanisms need evaluation� Beneficial in community adaptation discussions
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� Think about a more holistic evaluation of our coastal resources and community identity
� Need data – Citizen scientists, graduate students� How many people, when, what are they doing?� How much do they spend?
� Changes to the coastal system over time
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� All Adaptation is local, but solutions need regional and technical perspectives� Coordination� Lack of authority
� Language and Communication issues� Managed retreat� Hybrid structural solutions
� How to monetize non market benefits?� Funding resources
� Limited dollars for adaptation planning