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Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

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Page 1: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Date 08 October 2013

SC Economic Development:Electrification Programme

Ms Ayanda NoahGroup Executive

Distribution

Page 2: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Content

2

Orientation on the Electricity Value Chain

Current Network Status

Electrification Backlog

Risks and Challenges

Planning Principles

Progressing Towards Universal Access

Page 3: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

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Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation

Transmission Transmission Lines Lines

(400/275 kV)

Distribution LinesDistribution Lines

ResidentialResidential

Reticulation HV LineReticulation HV Line(11 & 22kV)(11 & 22kV)

ReticulationReticulationLV LineLV Line

(380/220V)(380/220V)

Distribution SubstationDistribution Substation

Transmission SubstationTransmission Substation

The Electricity Supply Chain

POWER POWER STATIONSSTATIONS

Industry, Mining &

Large Metros

Commercial/Small industry/

Farming/Small Munics

High voltage

Medium voltage

Lowvoltage

Page 4: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Customer Services

• Total electricity sales of 216 561GWh and 5 million customers (including transmission customers) as at 31 March 2013

• Supplies approximately 95% of South Africa’s electricity supply• Two main types of customers:

• Redistributors: Mainly municipalities that sell electricity to end customers.• Direct customers: Industrial, commercial, mining, agricultural and residential consumers

• Key Sales and Customer Service unit deals with customers using ≥100GWh of energy per year• As at 31 March 2013, Eskom had 5.0 million customers accounting for electricity revenues of R126.7

billion• One customer has a supply contract indexed to commodity prices• A member of Southern African Power Pool (“SAPP”)

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Key figures year end to 31 March 2013

Gross Electricity Revenue SplitTotal: 126.7 billion

Number of customersTotal: 5.0 million

Electricity sales by customer for year ended 31 March 2013

Page 5: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Distribution: Division Profile

To service the customer through provision of reliable electricity by building, operating and maintaining distribution assets, while also acting in the national interest by actively partnering with the wider industry in resolving distribution industry issues and enhancing stakeholder relations

Scope and mandate

67 488km of distribution lines269 535km of reticulation power lines6 960km of underground cables3 580MVA of new transformer capacity15 350 employees

Asset base Organisation structure

• Implemented several safety initiatives, which saw an improvement in most of the safety indicators• Sustained improvement of the system average interruption duration index (SAIDI) and the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI)• Electrification connections exceeded target and also created 4 320 job opportunities• Since inception of the electrification programme in 1991, a total of more than 4.3 million (2012: 4.2 million) homes have been electrified

Highlights and output

• Employee and, in particular, contractor safetyperformance and lost-time injuries• High levels of theft of equipment andelectricity, including illegal connections, affectnetwork and service performance, increasingEskom’s costs• Ageing networks, making maintenance achallenge

Key challenges and priorities

• 5.0 million customers nationally• Nine provincial operating unit Structures are now in place,with fully functional management.

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Page 6: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Distribution Network Planning Process

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• Electrification Plan • Land use study • Demographic study • Econometric study • Zoning exercise • Load forecast - geo-based - trend-based • Demand & energy forecast • Scenario creation

Gather & Verify Network & Load

Information

• Geographical background data • Network asset information • Load (MD) profiles • Reports, Guides, Standards, etc • Customer data • Electrification data • Performance KPIs • Transmission plans • Refurbishment plans • Environmental issues

Identify &

Evaluate Alternatives

Capital Plan

& Financial Evaluation

Reporting, Approval

& Project Initiation

• Formulate alternatives • Map alternatives • Technical evaluation - load flow - fault studies • Reliability analysis • Life cycle costing • Economic evaluation • Integrated plans - transmission - sub-transmission - reticulation

• Select Preferred Alternatives • Capital Requirement Plan - Phasing • Financial Evaluation - cash flow - income - tariffs

• Reporting - conceptual plan - geographical presentation • Approval - NMP / NDP • Project initiation - DPA’s / CRA’s • Environmental assessments - SEA’s (EIA’s) • Long lead-time equipment • Servitude acquisition

Analyse Existing

Network Capability

& Define Problem

Statement

• Build network models • Analyse existing network capability - present loads - future loads • Analyse plans - refurbishment - electrification - environmental • Analyse reliability requirements • Define problem statement

Study Objective

& Review of Study Area

•Define study objective •Compile map showing existing NMP/NDP boundaries • Map showing existing networks • Prepare network SLD’s • Review/redefine Study Area boundaries

Compile Load

Forecast & Strategic

Study

Integration of Electrification, Refurbishment, Transmission and Environmental Plans

• Comprehensive Network Planning process - Supported by appropriate Network Planning criteria/standards

• Network Development Plans reviewed every three years (license condition)

• Distribution Master Plans reviewed every 5 years

• Ensure integrity of the design base – compliance assessed by Group Technology

Page 7: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Eskom Electrification Planning Principles

-

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Page 8: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

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Universal Access Workstream

Page 9: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Distribution Network Constraints

91421 of a total of 8310 MV feeders fail Network Planning criteria (feeders in Red)

February 2013 (as is network)

Planning Criteria assessed:-Voltage limits-Thermal limits-Maximum customer numbers-Maximum line lengths

Estimated cost to addresscapacity constrainednetworks R42.7bn

Page 10: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Distribution Current CAPEX

R54 BN BUDGET Grand Total

Strengthening 24,506Refurbishment 12,857Reliability 2,930

Dx Wires m_report Dec 2012.pt 10

R43 Bn BUDGET 1st CUT Grand Total

Strengthening 19,317

Refurbishment 9,363

Reliability 2,766

R39 Bn BUDGET 2nd CUT Grand Total

Strengthening 16,088

Refurbishment 9,579

Reliability 1.513

Page 11: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

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Electrification Highlights Since Inception

• Added ~4.3 million households to the grid since 1990

• Electricity access has significantly increased from 1994 to-date:

– Nationally from 36% to 83%– Rural electrification from 12% to 57%

• Government’s target of 1.75 million connections between 1994 and 2000 exceeded through a self-funded and managed programme

• Massive delivery– A connection every 30 seconds– A pole every 10 seconds– 200 metres of cable every minute

• Eskom and Shell Joint Venture connected around 6,000 solar home systems between mid-1990s and mid-2000s

• Nearly 32,000 systems have been installed by Non Grid Service Providers granted concessions by the DoE in 2003

There have also been a limited number of off-grid connections

Eskom has made significant strides in connecting South Africans to the grid +

SOURCE: Eskom

Page 12: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Electrification Success : Cumulative Connections

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Page 13: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Stats SA FiguresStats SA Figures

National Electrification Backlog (2012)

PROVINCE CONNECTION BACKLOG

Free State 200 435

Limpopo 270 877

Gauteng 878 725

Western Cape 212 552

Northern Cape 44

397

Mpumalanga 214 409

North West 157 419

Kwa-Zulu Natal 829 737

Eastern Cape 613 113

TOTAL3 421 664

The national backlog, including municipal backlog is 3,3-million households, of which Eskom’s backlog in proclaimed areas is 1,8-million households, including estimated growth in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Free State. Eskom’s backlog in proclaimed and un-proclaimed areas is 2,3- to 2,5-million households (DoE figures).

The national backlog, including municipal backlog is 3,3-million households, of which Eskom’s backlog in proclaimed areas is 1,8-million households, including estimated growth in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Free State. Eskom’s backlog in proclaimed and un-proclaimed areas is 2,3- to 2,5-million households (DoE figures).

5% 20%

1.5%

6%

24%

5.5%21% 6.5%

10.5%

Page 14: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

The Household Back Log (Including Sub- letting residents)

 Operating Unit

Households with electricity

Households without electricity

Sub-letting

Free State 726 696 81 397

Limpopo 1 243 642 182 011

Gauteng 3 416 361 492 644

Western Cape 1 525 979 108 017

Northern Cape 257 253 44 152

Mpumalanga 929 372 146 136

North West 892 424 169 560

KwaZuluNatal 1 977 260 562 059

Eastern Cape 1 265 759 421 625

TOTALS 12 234 746 2 207 601 1 214 064

TOTAL 3 421 665

Census 2011/12 FiguresCensus 2011/12 Figures

Sub-letting refers to units constructed on a property in addition to the main home or primary dwelling and are not on an individual plot or stand in the title scheme/cadastre, and can be located within, attached to, or separate from, the principal dwelling.

Sub-letting refers to units constructed on a property in addition to the main home or primary dwelling and are not on an individual plot or stand in the title scheme/cadastre, and can be located within, attached to, or separate from, the principal dwelling.

Page 15: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Estimated Cost To Eradicate Backlog Per Province

Census 2011/12 results 15

PROVINCE

2011/12 Cost per Connection

Provincial Connection

backlog

Cost to Connect Backlog

Free State 7 383.00R 200 435 1 479 814 108.32R

Limpopo 7 655.00R 270 877 2 073 566 687.86R

Gauteng 8 867.00R 878 725 7 791 654 322.99R

Western Cape 9 508.00R 212 552 2 020 939 946.44R

Northern Cape 9 954.00R 44 397 441 927 554.80R

Mpumalanga 10 366.00R 214 409 2 222 560 600.68R

North West 12 711.00R 157 419 2 000 954 817.76R

Kwazulu Natal 19 935.00R 829 737 16 540 813 145.79R

Eastern Cape 22 157.00R 613 113 13 584 750 625.03R

TOTAL/AVERAGE 3 421 665 48 156 981 809.66R

Page 16: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Challenges To Achieving Universal Access

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Increase of the cost per connection due to long Medium Voltage line (11 and 22KV )

Project management & design skills shortage;

Sparsely populated rural areas;

Infrastructure projects in support of other implementing agents;

Municipal upgrades for After Diversity Maximum Demand (ADMD)

Constrain due to reduced Eskom Capex expenditure;

• Refurbishment (Eskom funded)

• Network Upgrade (Eskom funded)

• Strengthening projects (Eskom funded)

• New build (Funded by DoE 70/30 principle applies)

Page 17: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

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Grid & non-grid, Master Plan (DoE & Eskom working on a Master Plan);

Agreed service levels of the non grid to be similar to grid;

Harmonization of government initiatives e.g. electrification and housing programmes

Aligned policies to facilitate implementation process (e.g. un-proclaimed, land usages);

Installation of two meters in double stand dwellers;

Increase fund allocation to cater for infrastructure projects:

Refurbishment of constraint networks related to electrification.

Upgrading of the networks.

70/30 principle in new builds networks to be continued.

Some Opportunities To Facilitate UAP Achievement

Page 18: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Single homestead in a mountain(High cost per connection)

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Page 19: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Cost per connection in Densely populated area is low

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Page 20: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

The burden falls disproportionately on women and girls

TThe girl child & her mom are still fetching wood

to cook & keep warmBrussels, April 21, 2023 page 20

The elect. challenge is Real & Material

Page 21: Date 08 October 2013 SC Economic Development: Electrification Programme Ms Ayanda Noah Group Executive Distribution

Universal Access Programme

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Thank you