dash talk contrarians may2010

8/9/2019 DASH Talk Contrarians May2010

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5/2/10 Copyright Jan W. Dash 1

The Climate Contrarians

Who are they?

What are their goals and tactics?Why are they wrong?

Jan W. Dash, PhDDirector Climate Initiative, Unitarian Universalist UN Office


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Who are the contrarians and

what are their goals? Contrarians mostly not climate scientists

Example: news weathermen are not climate scientists

Contrarians mostly a U.S. phenomenon Increasingly powerful; dominate US right-wing agenda Supported by fossil fuel, libertarian think tanks

Exxonsecrets.org Greenpeace has details

Contrarian goals

Stop climate legislation and regulation Stop mitigation of global warming


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Four Levels of Contrarianism

and why they are wrong There is no global warming GW

Fundamental distortion of the facts

There is GW, but we are not causing it Irrelevant ancient data + ignore science and models

There is GW + we are causing it, but there areno bad consequences Ignore expert warnings from many different fields

There is GW + we are causing it + there are badconsequences, but its too expensive to mitigate Outlier economics, ignore green energy benefits


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The Nature of Science

Science is knowledge, a web of facts and theory,together very strong But, science is not mathematics

Mathematics: one chink or a missing fact or minor error invalidates a proof

Science: never proves, only degrees of certainty

Scientists are already skeptics, need persuasion BUT once persuaded, need good reasons to change

Scientists in the field publish in journals Peer review acts as a good (not perfect) filter


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Contrarian Distortion of Science,

Tactics, Attacks Contrarian claims are not science

Wrong, misinformed, irrelevant, distorted, cherry-picking Ex: Sun responsible for recent global warming = wrong

Good description = Cargo-Cult pseudoscience (Feynman)

Common contrarian tactics are not scientific Use mass media (not peer-reviewed journals) Copy Big Tobacco doubt on smoking danger tactic Nitpick, turn molehills into mountains, falsely generalize Try to put science in the courtroom, with lawyers

Swift-Boat attacks on science and scientists Contrarian op-eds, right-wing politicians and blogs Some extremist threats of violence to scientists


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Solar Fluctuations did NOT cause

global warming since 1980 Suns output is just Oscillating: NO trend

Contrarian conjecture recent solar influence: False

Data: GISS/NASA


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Contrarian Attacks

Wrong, Irrelevant, Cherry-picking Contrarian Global Cooling Conjecture => Wrong

Cherry-picks the starting date 1998, indefensible 1998 high temperature due to huge El Nio weather effect

Hacked emails => Irrelevant to science results Investigations exonerate Professors Jones, Mann Climate science results, existence of global warming, climate

data, models, projected impacts are NOT affected

Himalayan glaciers => Cherry-pick attack IPCC

2007 IPCC reports, summarize work, 3000 pages One paragraph wrong. Nothing is perfect. Glitch. Used as unwarranted excuse to attack / discredit IPCC

Ref: Realclimate.org , exhaustive AP email review


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Shoe is actually on Other Foot Contrarians distort data

Medieval warming period was NOT global

Contrarians distort meaning of global warming

Does NOT mean warming everywhere, every day Contrarians distort uncertainty

Demand unattainable 100% certainty from scientists Contrarian conjectures - just wrong

Contrarians distort funding Salaried scientists in it for the money - ridiculous Contrarians hide funding by fossil fuel, libertarians

Known: $100,000 for one contrarian; $11,000 fee for lecture


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What About The Contrarians?

www.digitaluniverse.net/uuuno

dash talk contrarians may2010

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