dartmouth business journal: fall 2008
TRANSCRIPT
Fall Edition 1
Published in Hanover, NH
--- Table Of Contents ---
Business - The Evolution of Subprime: The Politics of Home Finance
By Kunal Arya
p. 1
- Staying Afloat: Small Business’ Struggle to Keep its Head Above Water
By: Alex Gonzalez
p. 3
International - An Untapped Source of Wealth
By John Spradling
p. 4
- Monetary Reform Needed to End Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation
By Sonny Kung
p. 5
- Japanese EVs
Giulia Siccardo
p. 6
Investment - Investing Ideas in Turbulent Times
By Kareem Halim
p. 8
Interviews - Andrew Ervin, Tuck '09
Yunxi (Tony) Deng '11
p. 9
- Giacomo Sonnino, Tuck '09
Interview by Yunxi (Tony) Deng '11
p. 11
Fall Edition 2
Published in Hanover, NH
--- Business ---
The Evolution of Subprime: The Politics of Home Finance
By Kunal Arya
The burgeoning downfall of the credit market has brought the American economy and worldwide banks to its knees. Massive cri;cism of corporate greed and misguided policies have le= many ci;zens wondering about the health of the once vaunted American capitalist system.
The evolu;on of the credit crisis was a result of a set of growing trends in poli;cal and financial thought. Although there is considerable dissent among economists as to how large a role the subprime market played in the financial collapse, it was clearly responsible for the failure of Bear Stearns’ hedge funds and the erosion of general business confidence that has led to current market vola;lity. Thus, an examina;on of the policies that the Clinton and Bush presiden;al administra;ons set into place is cri;cal to fully understand the current economic crisis.
In a recent ar;cle, Joseph R. Mason, a Senior Fellow at the Wharton School, explained the poli;cal concept that drove pro‐homeownership mortgage credit policies. For Bill Clinton, poli;cs was all about “the economy, stupid,” and promo;ng homeownership was the way to show Americans how hard he was figh;ng for their standard of living. When President Bush came into office, he brought along the ideological framework of an American “Ownership Society,” into which encouraging homeownership fit perfectly. Therefore, the poli;cal framework for the housing boom was bipar;san in nature.
Based on these poli;cal mo;ves, the Clinton administra;on began a policy push to increase homeownership. In 1994, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) under the direc;on of Secretary Cisneros, devised the “Na;onal Homeownership Strategy,” an unprecedented coopera;on between government and a myriad of par;cipants in the housing market, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Its goal was to achieve “an all‐;me high level of homeownership in America within the next 6 years” (Rosner 2001). A central component of the strategy was “crea;ve financing,” which would allow borrowers to purchase homes even if they lacked income to make the payments. The strategy lauded recent strides to reduce down payments for low‐income homebuyers, who o=en had insufficient saving pa]erns impeded them from accumula;ng enough cash to cover the down payment.
Those who formulated the plan realized the possibility for the abuse of its s;pula;ons. Therefore, they created a list of over a hundred ac;on items that contained prerequisite warnings of possible ill effects and advice on preventa;ve measures to combat them. Unfortunately, the coali;on of public and private firms that finance, service and sell mortgages ignored these sugges;ons. Despite the warning of poli;cians, the “siren song of homeownership” and its poli;cal benefits seduced the lenders into ignoring the safeguards (Mason 2008).
To be fair to the poli;cians, on the surface it looked like the strategy was working perfectly. Homeownership was booming: up to 67% in 2000, well on its way to reaching the record highs seen in 2007. However, the Strategy created three categories of borrowers. The first category was the one it was originally aimed at: renters who could now afford their dream of homeownership. The two other categories, however, were abuses of the strategy. Some used the lax regula;on to misrepresent loans and defraud the system, showing that stricter oversight was clearly necessary. Perhaps more importantly, homeowners would use the financial leverage present in the new crea;ve financing tools to either supplement their income with a cash‐out refinance or trade up to a larger house before they could actually afford it. (Mason 2008) This trend was a large demand driver for the housing bubble that would form in the late 1990s and eventually burst in 2008.
As demand for housing grew due to the availability of mortgages, the housing sector boomed. When the Federal Reserve under Greenspan further cut interest rates to avoid a deep recession a=er the tech bubble burst, a first or larger home became an even more appealing investment for many Americans. This massive growth in demand prompted innova;on in finance markets to be able to supply capital to all of these homeowners, some of who were not exactly tradi;onal low‐risk borrowers (Goldfarb and Klein 2008). With demand outstripping available capital, along with lax regula;ons and the desire of lower‐income Americans to avoid down payments, the subprime market was born.
The idea was to sell home loans to people at higher interest rates who would not be eligible for tradi;onal prime rates, then package large amounts of loans together and sell them as securi;es on Wall Street in order to raise the necessary capital. Mistakes in the valua;on of these assets were partly due to a lack of informa;on about borrowers, caused by looser regula;on, and par;ally due to corporate conflicts of interests in the ra;ng agencies. These mistakes along with lack of oversight led to massive write‐downs when their values were corrected and the market for subprime securi;es collapsed (Mason and Rosner 2007). Since these securi;es leveraged other debts, lenders were le= with a significant amount of subprime mortgage backed debt they were unable to valuate. Thus the hedge funds that invested heavily in subprime debt had to be bailed out by their investment banks. For Bear Stearns, this sapped its cash cushion to the point that lenders became fearful. Its credit ra;ng was downgraded and investors made a run on the bank, promp;ng its sale to J.P. Morgan with a government guarantee on its debt (Goldfarb and Klein 2008).
The impact the housing bubble had on segng off the crisis of business confidence that stopped the flow of capital into the economy remains a point of debate, but the subprime crisis is
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undeniably largely responsible for the current economic problems and financial meltdown. While many people can be blamed, from unscrupulous lenders to Greenspan to borrowers who did not fully
understand the loans they were taking, the root cause of the subprime crisis traces back to the Clinton era “Na;onal Homeownership Strategy,” and Bush’s con;nued support for it.
Fall Edition 2
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Staying Afloat: Small Business’ Struggle to Keep its Head Above Water
By: Alex Gonzalez
Today’s headlines are dominated with news of the collapsed housing market, an auto industry in shambles, and the death of some of Wall Street’s most famous investment banks. Investors have grown nervous, with a mass sell‐off of assets as a result, causing the stock market to take a record‐breaking plunge. Even ins;tu;ons with large endowments, such as Dartmouth College, are feeling the impact of this crisis, and are cugng spending where possible. With so many large companies and banks failing, there is one sector that has been almost completely neglected in the media: small businesses.
Small businesses, by defini;on, have fewer than five hundred employees, but represent approximately 99% of all employer firms and create more than half of nonfarm private gross domes;c product (GDP). Such small companies are also responsible for paying nearly 45% of the total U.S. private payroll. With over 27 million small businesses in this country, their importance to our economy is cri;cal, but right now many are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy (SBA).
Due to their extreme abundance, the failure of a single small business rarely makes headlines. However, the financial crisis is having an enormous impact on the way that they operate. These businesses rely heavily on bank loans for financing, and have therefore suffered deeply as credit has ;ghtened severely. Many of these banks have failed, or are in danger of failing, making it much harder for business owners to acquire the capital they need to grow. Banks have grown hesitant to extend credit to such small customers due to heightened risks, which makes it very difficult for small businesses to pay exis;ng loans.
If small businesses do not have sufficient funds to operate, they may be forced to operate on low profit margins, and may eventually fail. The $700 billion bailout and the subsequent lowering of interest rates was expected to s;mulate lending and increase liquidity, but so far has failed to achieve those goals. John Hole, the 32‐year owner of John’s Tile Center, is worried that he may have to use his personal savings to keep his business from failing. He said, “At my age, the last thing that I want is to be injec;ng funds into my business,” he said. He hopes to keep his
four staff members, but says “I’m taking it day by day” (AFP). Banks have used bailout money to bail themselves out, but have been unsuccessful thus far at using that money to rejuvenate small businesses.
The financial problem that small businesses face has been further exacerbated by the $700 billion bailout. Although the bailout was intended to s;mulate banks into gran;ng new loans, it has largely failed to do so. For small businesses that are not able to a]ain necessary loans, any increased taxes on the businesses’ exis;ng assets are remarkably painful. For example, a developer may have bought several pieces of land before the financial crisis with the inten;on of building homes or a mall. Now, with the economy in recession, banks won’t give money to fund the building projects on the land because they know that fewer people will be spending on new homes and luxury items. This presents the developer with a significant problem: he/she cannot develop the investment, but at the same ;me must pay significant property taxes on the land. Instead of the land genera;ng profits, it now faces taxa;on and thus nega;ve cash flow. Eventually, the developer may choose to sell his land at a loss and close his small business to avoid losing more money.
A development firm is just one example of a small business type strained by the current financial crisis. Restaurants, retail stores, architecture firms, hotels, and entertainment venues are all suffering, or even failing, due to the severe drop in consumer spending. Nick Economos, owner of the Fishbone Grille in Fort Mill, NC had to close his restaurant because, “People just quit coming.” He said, “People just got scared with their 401(k), and during that ;me it was just bad news… [the] stock market dropped like a rock and here we couldn’t get gas. That was everyone’s first priority. It added to the anxiety” (Fort Mill Times).
Because small businesses employ so many people and are responsible for such a large percentage of our GDP, the failure of these companies will only con;nue to hurt the economy. Un;l consumer confidence returns, many small businesses will con;nue to spiral downward toward bankruptcy.
Fall Edition 3
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--- International ---
An Untapped Source of Wealth
By John Spradling
Due to high gas prices, consumers have paid more a]en;on to the price per barrel of crude oil, as well as the Islamic communi;es that are reaping the benefits. The massive amounts of wealth stemming from the high price of oil have tremendously impacted Islamic communi;es. Places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi have come to epitomize the explosion of available capital within the Middle East. As Islamic communi;es begin to use their capital to invest with other non‐Islamic communi;es, principles of Islamic law come into play and issues become much more complicated.
In 2007, es;ma;ons reported that the American Islamic community, the Muslims living in the U.S. who govern their investments according to the laws of the Sharia and the Quran, “had over $170 billion in purchasing power” (Elshinnawi). This niche in American society has recently become a major player in the world of banking and finance due to this enormous wealth.
While firms are scrambling to access this largely untapped resource, they must first overcome Islamic laws that restrict the usage of their capital. Islamic banking operates with the same inten;ons as standard Western banking, except for one caveat: finance must follow the rules set forth by the Quran. Under the laws of the Quran, Muslims are prohibited from collec;ng any form of interest. The problem this created for the tradi;onal banking world has led to the introduc;on of Islamic banking techniques into the Western world. The following is an examina;on of three techniques used today to help avoid the zero‐interest‐payments rules of the Quran.
The first of these techniques is called Mudharabah. This technique u;lizes the principle of profit sharing. While the lender
does not charge interest, they do share in the profits and successes of the entrepreneur, similar to venture capital. The second technique is called Wadiah. With this technique, Islamic banks u;lize depositors’ funds at their own discre;on, and will o=en reward the depositor with gi=s of cash payments for allowing the bank to use the funds. These cash gi=s are similar to interest payments, but are not always guaranteed and do not have a set rate of payment. Recently, there has been some controversy in the Islamic community over the issuance of these Sharia‐compliant Islamic bonds, as some religious scholars ques;on whether these bonds adhere to the religious laws outlined by the Sharia. Consequently, the issuance of Islamic compliant bonds has plummeted recently, falling to “$14 billion this year from up to $50 billion last year” (sukuk.net). The third technique is called Ijarah. This prac;ce essen;ally rents an asset that corresponds to the principal and interest that conven;onal Western financing would use. In other words, Ijarah is a sale‐leaseback, where the seller begins leasing the asset back and makes rental payments that correspond to the Western concepts of interest payments.
Islamic banking is s;ll in its infancy and has yet to be fully refined. The vast amount of available capital throughout the Islamic communi;es has created a niche in the banking world that will con;nue. Large banking firms and even countries like Japan, England, and Malaysia, are catering to these communi;es by pledging Islamic‐compliant‐banking‐services. Banks will certainly not forego the opportunity to enter into this
compe;;ve market, as the wealth held by oil‐rich American Islamic communi;es is a perfect target for Western banks looking to u;lize their available capital. Islamic banking should con;nue to be a major factor in the world economy in the future.
Fall Edition 4
Published in Hanover, NH
“The combined power of each of the over 27 million small businesses in this country is massive, and right now many are close to failure.”
Monetary Reform Needed to End Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation
By Sonny Kung
The Interna;onal Monetary Fund e s ;ma t e d t h a t b y J a n u a r y, Zimbabwe’s infla;on rate had escalated to 150,000%. The Z imbabwean government has refused to release infla;on figures in an effort to keep prices down since last June (Mugari). That plan has failed as businesses have used infla;on es;mates to set prices.
The Zimbabwe Reserve Bank decided to increase the money supply to ease
the cash crisis. Yet this will only worsen the problem. The Reserve Bank is considering issuing a new currency of a lower denomina;on. However, if Zimbabwe is unable to implement monetary reform along with the new currency, infla;on will con;nue to spiral out of control.
Zimbabwe’s raging hyperinfla;on is a result of a lack of revenue to cover expenditures. The Zimbabwean government has been unable to reduce spending, subsequently racking up a very large fiscal deficit. A government can finance its spending in three ways: by taxing the public, selling government bonds, or prin;ng money.
Due to exis;ng economic woes in Zimbabwe, it is not feasible for the government to raise more revenue by increasing taxes. Zimbabwe already has one of the highest tax rates in the world, as the average ci;zen is subjected to a 35% income tax. However, despite these high taxes, the Zimbabwean government provides very few social benefits for its people. Many people in Zimbabwe barely have enough money to afford basic necessi;es like transporta;on, food and rent, let alone fund their government’s fiscal expansionary policies. (Mpofu)
Zimbabwe is unable to raise revenue through the sale of government bonds because there is no public demand for them, stemming from a lack of faith in the Zimbabwean government.
Contrarily, every year the U.S. government raises billions of dollars of revenue by selling bonds and securi;es to the public. The U.S. has established a reputa;on as a creditworthy ins;tu;on, and has never defaulted on its debt obliga;ons. Zimbabwe on the other hand, has been plagued with poli;cal unrest and financial insecurity. Investors are unwilling to risk their money in a precarious poli;cal environment in order to finance a government with ques;onable credit history. The Zimbabwean government is handicapped by their inability to raise revenue by issuing debt.
Unable to levy taxes or sell bonds, the Reserve Bank has resorted to prin;ng money as a solu;on to their fiscal woes. The infla;on rate has dras;cally increased from 3,700% in April of 2007 to 66,000% in December of 2007 to 150,000% in January of 2008 (Mugari). Zimbabwe used to be one of Africa’s most prosperous
na;ons, however, poor monetary policy has destroyed the economy and unleashed hyperinfla;on.
The central bank’s loosening of monetary policy not only finances the fiscal and trade deficits, but also targets Zimbabwe’s past decade of nega;ve GDP growth (World Bank and IMF). In 2000, Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, enacted land reform that
severely hurt the country’s maize produc;ons. The produc;on of this staple crop, dropped by as much as 75% as a result of the reforms. This had a strong nega;ve impact on rural incomes, exports, and food securi;es. Unemployment reached 80%, manufacturing fell 51% from 1997 to 2005, and exports declined by a half from 2001 to 2005 (Clemens). As a result, aggregate demand and the economy’s total output decreased significantly. The Reserve Bank’s policy theore;cally could shi= aggregate demand back to long run output. However, increasing money supply has only resulted in hyperinfla;on and an exacerba;on of the Zimbabwe’s economic recession.
Historically, countries that have suffered from hyperinfla;on have resolved the problem by restoring faith in their currency and by enac;ng strict monetary reform. Zimbabwe must end its economic misrule by beginning to deal with its hyperinfla;on.
Fall Edition 5
Published in Hanover, NH
“While firms are scrambling to access this largely untapped r e sou r c e , t h e y mu s t fi r s t overcome Islamic laws that restrict the usage of their capital.”
Japanese EVs
Giulia Siccardo
Green cars that are widely available, reasonably priced and profitable to build? A Tokyo dealership is where to find them. To meet the demand for clean‐air vehicles, Japanese car companies across the board are accelera;ng produc;on of their fully electric concepts. The goal: electric vehicles available to the public by 2010, just over a year away.
Over the past few years, the increase of consump;on in the emerging economies of China and India, combined with higher extrac;on costs, have contributed to skyrocke;ng prices of fossil fuels in the US and abroad. There are a few diverging opinions about the concept of “peak oil,” but everyone agrees that oil produc;on will decrease steadily over ;me. Even taking into account the recent drop in crude oil prices, the cost of fuel has grown more than 560% over the past ten years (Energy Informa;on Administra;on), which has le= consumers itching to find a be]er, budget‐friendly alterna;ve to current transporta;on (Interna;onal Herald Tribune). Clearly, every car company wants to be the first to provide a solu;on. The race to an ideal state of energy efficiency has begun, and at the moment, the contenders at the forefront are all based in Japan.
The idea of the fully electric vehicle, or EV, is not a new one in Japan. In fact, Keio University has been experimen;ng with electric technology for several years. The university’s work culminated in the development of Eliica, a fully electric concept car powered by a long‐las;ng ba]ery, which can reach speeds up to 240 mph (EV Laboratory of Keio University). The Eliica was introduced at the Tokyo Motor Show in 2005 as the first “high performance” fully electric vehicle. At the ;me, the Eliica team saw their work as a step towards the crea;on of a commercial line of similar vehicles.
Mitsubishi is clearly one of the major players in the push for electric vehicles. The company is working on comple;ng their “iMiEV,” a fully electric model reminiscent of a Smart Car, on track for the projected launch date of 2010 (AutoWeek). Ini;ally, the release will be limited to the Japanese market, but Mitsubishi has plans to sell the car in the US and Europe as well. The price for this vehicle, which runs 93 miles per charge and reaches a top speed of 90 mph, will be equivalent to roughly 19,000 USD (MSNBC). The technology and lithium ion ba]eries used to power the car will be supplied by Lithium Energy Japan, a joint venture set up by Mitsubishi itself (J‐Cast Business News).
Nissan, also at the forefront of the race to spearhead the EV market, plans for fleet sales of its car in the US and Japan to commence in 2010, with worldwide marke;ng beginning in 2012. “The first produc;on vehicles will be for regional areas like California," Nissan's Manager of Advanced Vehicle Engineering Masahiko Tabe explained. "We will later expand the EV all over the world." This tall, boxy four‐seat vehicle, modeled on the gasoline‐powered Nissan Cube currently for sale in Japan, will have a daily range of 100 miles, a top speed of 75 mph and a
recharge ;me of just 8 hours (AutoWeek). Automo;ve Energy Supply Corp, a joint venture set up by Subaru, Nissan and electronics mogul NEC Corpora;on, will provide the ba]ery pack to power the car. Nissan officials have high aspira;ons for the car’s success, hoping that its release will bring them “zero emissions vehicle leadership” (Interna;onal Herald Tribune).
The automo;ve designers of Subaru share a similar vision. Subaru has scheduled the release of Stella, a four‐seat lithium‐ion ba]ery‐powered electric for 2009 (AutoWeek). This vehicle, traveling only 50 miles on an 8‐hour charge, is much less heavy duty than its rival counterparts and caters most directly to the needs of city commuters. However, Subaru currently has no plans to market the car outside Japan (AutoWeek). The ba]eries for this EV will also be provided by Automo;ve Energy Supply Corp.
Lastly, Toyota is also preparing for the release of its own version of an electric vehicle. The ultra‐compact E‐Com which has been on the drawing board since 1999, will seat only 2 passengers and feature a small gasoline engine to recharge the ba]ery. According to Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe, the car will be adequate for limited distance travel only.
With so many Japanese companies producing electric vehicles, it is easy to see that anyone who demands an energy‐efficient car worldwide will look to Japan. But why is Japan, of all places, the birthplace of this new market?
First of all, strong economic mo;ves will encourage consumers to consider the purchase of an EV. In a country where gasoline pump prices average 150% higher than in the US, a $19,000 MiEV will be in high demand.
In addi;on, Japanese companies are known to have a strict reverence for customer sa;sfac;on. In recent years, this conven;on of serving the customer in the best possible way has become closely associated with “having a developed sense of
Fall Edition 6
Published in Hanover, NH
social responsibility and valuing environmentally friendly prac;ces.” (The Economist). For instance, the Daily Yomiuri reported in July that Toyota was publically funding reforesta;on endeavors in the Philippines to augment its image as a “green” business (Japan Environment News).
Another important factor that has contributed to Japan’s primary role in the budding EV industry is the availability of the complex technology required to efficiently manufacture lithium‐ion ba]eries for automo;ve use. This technology, which was largely referred to as “untested” and “unproven” as recently as five years ago, was assumed to be expensive and imprac;cal (Wall Street Journal). Today, however, each major Japanese car company has its own in‐house produc;on of EV ba]eries, with the excep;on of Subaru and Nissan, which share the same technology.
Lastly, the Japanese people and market have a profound willingness to accept the electric car into their lifestyles. With the knowledge that fully electric cars will be launched in Japan as early as 2009, Japanese supermarket chain Aeon Co. is preparing to install car‐charging ports at prime loca;ons in its shopping malls. The ports Aeon plans to set up will be powerful enough to charge EVs in just an hour, a frac;on of the ;me employed using a household socket (The Japan Times).
Together, high fuel prices, Japan’s cultural mores, the availability of advanced technology and the enthusiasm for a more
environmentally conscious lifestyle have created the perfect situa;on for the rise of the EV market. This cons;tutes a posi;ve step for Japan and the world as a whole, but are EVs really the ideal answer to pollu;on that environmental advocates play them up to be?
First of all, if a large frac;on of the cars that used to run on gasoline start running on electric power, power systems might not be able to cope with the addi;onal demand for energy, especially if the switch happens too quickly, and the capacity margin for electricity genera;on might disappear (Global Dashboard).
Secondly, electric cars are only as green as the kind of genera;ng capacity used to charge them up. If the power does not come from wind or nuclear sources and instead comes from oil or coal, then EVs might be even bigger pollutants than gasoline cars. So if electric cars do result in increased demand on power grids, governments and power companies will need to focus on crea;ng low carbon genera;ng capacity in order for these cars to be a blessing rather than a curse (Global Dashboard).
The world will have to wait a few years before the true effects of the EV can be fully observed. What is clear today, however, is that the electric car’s debut into the global market is as much a ques;on as an answer.
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--- Investing ---
Investing Ideas in Turbulent Times
By Kareem Halim
When Jim Cramer says, “Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now,” people tend to listen. Within that statement is the reason why stocks and the economy are currently faring so poorly. The problem is a crisis of confidence, possibly even severe enough to triumph over intrinsic American
greed and capitalism.
We are in a ;me of unprecedented vola;lity; funds in investors’ porzolios are swinging wildly, which is very unnerving. But investors must remember to buy low and sell high, and some argue that there may never in our life;mes be another opportunity to buy so much at such low prices. Consider the basics of our economy: the government is doing everything it can to capitalize financial ins;tu;ons, the housing market is falling towards a bo]om, oil prices are half what they were a few months ago and world leaders are convening to reach a global resolu;on. The underlying problem is uncertainty and fear. For the brave and discerning, there may be profit opportuni;es out there.
Even though the market as a whole is down, there are sectors that are able to profit from the downturn (Tracy 2004). A prime example of a smart stock choice would be a firm that produces consumer staples, corpora;ons like Pepsi, Colgate‐Palmolive, Johnson & Johnson, and Proctor and Gamble. The products these companies produce o=en cannot be cut out of an individual’s budget or subs;tuted.
For those ;mid about pugng their money in stocks, a rela;vely safe op;ons is money market securi;es. Money market funds invest in debt securi;es including treasury bills, municipal notes, commercial paper and bonds, and the investor gains interest on the money they have loaned to a corpora;on; these almost never lose value, but offer low returns.
Index funds take a broad approach and try to mirror the performance of major stock, currency or commodity index. Because of low interest rates in Europe and ques;ons about emerging economies abroad, the dollar index is one possible
investment op;on, even if our own economy con;nues to struggle (Forex 2008). Gold is considered to be the safest commodity holding in ;mes of crisis, and its index has ventured into unseen territories recently (Ryniec 2008).
For those with the stomach to con;nue inves;ng in stocks, one of the most important features of a stock is its dividend. A dividend in its most common form is cash or stock issued to a stockholder, just for having stock in the company. As part owner of the corpora;on, the investor is en;tled to a por;on of the earnings. The yield is a measure of how large the dividend is, rela;ve to the stock price. If a stock priced at $10 a share issues a $0.50 annual dividend, then the ra;o of the two (5%) is its yield. This is crucial when the economy is not doing well because some stocks will decline in price even though they are s;ll fundamentally strong. Assuming the dividend remains the same, if the same $10 stock drops to $5, the yield becomes 10%. Most savvy investors will tell you to con;nually reinvest dividends into the stock; some corpora;ons will even offer you a dividend in the form of addi;onal stock. Now consider what happens if you owned 10 shares of the stock at $10 a share, it drops to $5, you reinvest the dividend, and it eventually climbs back to $10. You were able to buy an addi;onal share at $5, and you end up with $110 worth of stock, even though the share price is exactly where it started. However, stocks with yields above 6‐7% may reflect a depressed stock price that may be jus;fied, and a dividend that may be in jeopardy of being cut.
But for those with a real appe;te for inves;ng, there are some stocks that con;nue to push their 52 week lows down almost daily and may offer incredible discounts to their intrinsic values. There a number of methods to finding these stocks; sectors that have lost large corpora;ons present a good opportunity for smaller corpora;ons in that sector to gain market share. Iden;fying well capitalized corpora;ons with high liquidity and low debt that are rela;vely unaffected by the lack of access to credit and will be able to flourish when condi;ons improve may present tremendous opportuni;es in these ;mes. Finally, though crude prices have gone down again, alterna;ve energy should con;nue to be a source of high growth in the future as the world’s energy consump;on should remain high in the long‐term.
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--- Interviews ---
Andrew Ervin, Tuck '09
Yunxi (Tony) Deng '11
Biography
Mr Andrew Ervin is currently a MBA '09 candidate at the Tuck School of Business. A>er a?ending Penn State University, he worked as an actuary for research and development (R&D) at Liberty Mutual Group, one of the largest insurance companies in the naNon. A>er coming to Tuck, he spent his last summer at The Parthenon Group in their Boston office, a management‐consulNng firm and will be returning there full‐term as a Principal.
Interview
Why did you choose to go into business and consulNng? How did you break into the field?
I've always been an analy;cal‐quan;ta;ve person and so I wanted to work with numbers. I like the problem solving aspect of business in general, and the strategic nature of it as opposed to a career like law, for example. The world of business is constantly changing: there are always problems to deal with and there is always a need for people to solve them. Although my tenure at Liberty Mutual involved less of a strategic role than Parthenon, it did have strategic element in seeing how the market is changing, or how we approach something differently versus a compe;tor.
A=er gradua;ng college, I started work as an R & D actuary for the Liberty Mutual Group, where I worked on managing new pricing structures for auto insurance, which was basically a technical role with a strategy element. A few years went by and I realized I didn’t want to be in insurance forever, so I applied to business school and ended up coming to Tuck mainly because of the small size. For business school, I wasn’t just interested the classroom stuff but also wanted to develop my leadership and teamwork skills as well.
I wanted to work on management consul;ng because it would give me a feel for different industries so I would get a be]er sense of what I want to go into in the long‐term. A=er my first year at Tuck, I went through recrui;ng and ended up accep;ng an offer at the Parthenon Group for many of the same reasons that I chose Tuck ‐ an in;mate, entrepreneurial environment and a great culture.
Are you planning to pursue this as a full‐Nme career or are you tesNng the waters in a variety of different opNons?
Right now, I expect to be at Parthenon for about 5 years. At that point, I'll decide whether I like consul;ng enough to stay there long‐term, or whether I'd rather move into a general management career. If I choose the general management route, I expect to move into a fairly high‐level management role in an industry that I am interested in.
What does an average day in the office entail for you? If your job doesn't really have an average day, what would be examples of projects that you work on?
I was working on a case for a client in the for‐profit educa;on industry (e.g., University of Phoenix or Princeton Review) in which we helped them revise their pricing strategy, increase revenues, and become more profitable. We found that there really wasn’t an established pricing strategy in the industry, so no one had a grasp on how to set pricing and no one really knew what students were willing to pay to a]end different schools. We conducted a big research study among prospec;ve students for the school and through it we gauged how students viewed price when choosing to a]end a school. One result we found that was striking was that students viewed the cash they had to pay out of pocket at a much higher rate than they will value loans: a dollar of cash today is a lot more valuable than a dollar of loans they have to take out. We were able to quan;fy the consumer tradeoff between cash and loans, with those numbers we were able to turn to our client and tell them how to restructure financial aid packages in order to improve how a]rac;ve they were to students.
I think the most interes;ng part is when we conducted focus groups with students at the school, and put together a guide of different ques;ons and informa;on based on the groups. It is interes;ng to look at numbers but there is more credence behind them when you are talking to someone face‐to‐face.
How would you respond to criNcisms of strategic consulNng firms that they are o>en too rigid and dependent on frameworks and models in analysis?
When I was interviewing, I was a li]le turned off by the frameworks that strategy consul;ng firms follow and I personally feel that that does inhibit thinking out of the box. Structured frameworks aren’t always the best ways to approach things‐ especially a new type of problem. At Parthenon‐, we tended not to use many rigid frameworks, which was good, although it could have been the uniqueness of the project we worked on. We laid out a general layout of the project based on projects and pricing in
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the past but when we dug into the components there wasn’t prior frameworks to fall back on. I think that frameworks and models are good as a star;ng point but not something to rely on.
How has the credit crisis affected you and your day‐to‐day work, and if it hasn't, how has it affected your colleagues? In light of the crisis, do you think students would be be?er served working in another field for a few years before trying to break into financial services?
The banks coming to campus are taking fewer people, so there are a lot more people are looking for other jobs like consul;ng, so it made compe;;on a lot greater and harder for people to find posi;ons. There are a decent number of people who tried at gegng a consul;ng job but were unsuccessful. There are s;ll a lot of general management, venture capital, and private firms recrui;ng here. It is too early to tell if my colleagues are going to struggle for a job generally but they may not be gegng their first choice now.
How do you think Obama’s recent elecNon will impact the financial situaNon?
I get the sense that people are excited for the change aspect that he brings, and the hope is that the new administra;on can calm the financial crisis. Tuck students are op;mis;c, and the majority of students are suppor;ng Obama. The ques;on is whether that will happen in ;me for the people who will be searching for jobs next summer. Personally, I don’t think any changes he brings to the administra;on are going to have a whole lot of impact by the ;me we enter the job market. The Street and investors out there think that he will bring changes to the industry. If vola;lity calms down, that will send a signal to the banks and especially VC and PE firms that the environment is gegng be]er and they may return to their normal hiring capacity. Overall, there are s;ll opportuni;es but they require that much more work. If you want to go into these industries you need a lot of work but also a plan b.
ConsulNng/finance tends to have a reputaNon as a very stressful and Nme‐consuming career path. How have you balanced your work and social lives?
It was pre]y difficult ‐ it was definitely a demanding summer and I was working long hours. Fortunately, Parthenon also made sure we had a good ;me ‐ I had a number of friends from Tuck working at Boston but I didn’t see them as much not only because I was
working long hours but because Parthenon would take us out and show us a good ;me during off hours. As a result, I got to know the other interns very well.
Parthenon tends to have less travel ‐ about two days a week for Full‐Time Principals. As opposed to other consul;ng firms, Parthenon (and Bain) consultants are working on 2 cases simultaneously, so you need to balance needs of two different clients, so you travel only when you need to because you need to be in the office for the two clients.
Many of my friends have expressed that Dartmouth is doing students a disservice by emphasizing consul;ng and finance as the most desirable paths out of college at the expense of other fields like non‐profit, environmental sustainability, poverty allevia;on and development, educa;on, art, etc. How do you feel about this issue, and why do you think so many students want to break into these two fields when many don't even know exactly what the work entails?
I've heard the same feelings from people at Tuck as well, and I think the truth is that banking and consul;ng firms have the money to spend on very comprehensive recrui;ng efforts, so they are more than willing to be up here on campus as much as possible because they have the resources to do that and it pays off in the end. From the point of the students, I understand that those who don’t want to go into consul;ng or banking might become a bit overwhelmed and I think it would be great if something Dartmouth could do to increase the prominence of less popular tracts. However, it is tough to get other firms and other industries to spend the money on recrui;ng efforts because they don’t have quite the resources of banking or consul;ng firms. I think that gegng other op;ons on campus involves gegng alumni in other fields to help out, get up here on campus, tell students how to pursue these strategies and tracks, and step up the visibility of some of the other industries.
I think that students want to go into consul;ng or banking because they aren’t sure what they want to being doing a few years from now. I think all alumni of consul;ng or banking firms would agree you get a lot of exposure to a variety of different industries. These careers are basically a plazorm to the business world, and it allows people to put off the decision of what they want to do specifically. A=er working in finance or strategy consul;ng, you can go into a lot of different industries, whether its financial services, consumer packaged goods, or anything else.
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Giacomo Sonnino, Tuck '09
Interview by Yunxi (Tony) Deng '11
Biography
Mr Giacomo Sonnino is currently a MBA '09 candidate at the Tuck School of Business. Hailing from Rome, Italy, he holds a Master of Science in Engineering from the University of Rome "La Sapienza". There, he rowed on the crew team and conducted research on Internet wireless networks. A=er college, he worked for three years in the strategy and internal consul;ng department at the Italian aerospace, defense, and energy conglomerate, Finmeccanica. At Tuck, he is studying general management and spent his last summer as a Summer Associate at the consul;ng firm McKinsey & Company, where he will return a=er comple;ng his ;me at Tuck.
Interview
Why did you choose to go into business and consulNng?
At Finmeccanica, I worked on corporate strategic planning, mergers and acquisi;ons (M & A), and internal consul;ng. During my tenure, I was able to work constantly with high‐level directors, managers, and C‐level execu;ves. This exposure to leadership led me to look into business and management.
When I came to Tuck, I wanted to go into consul;ng because I was looking for a dynamic, fast‐paced career with opportuni;es to face very different and diverse business problems in different industries. I applied to a bunch of consul;ng firms, and I ended up choosing McKinsey at their Mediterranean office.
Are you planning to pursue consulNng as a full‐Nme career or are you tesNng the waters in a variety of different opNons? What are the usual exit opNons for management consulNng?
Looking back at my summer experience, I would probably do it for two or three years. I want a family in three to four years, and four to five days on the road is not always sustainable. When I was working at Finmeccanica I had a more balanced life and most projects were based in Rome, where I lived. It was easy to balance work and a social life because I was home four or five nights a week. However, when I worked as a consultant I was on the road four to five days a week. You can only have a life over the weekend, and that is the reason why the average turnover rate in consul;ng is three years.
Most consultants follow two main paths a=er their s;nt ‐ internal work for a corpora;on, such as a management or vice president posi;on, or private equity, which is less travel‐based but requires more risk. It basically depends on what skills you develop, and most of the ;me you will end up working for a client that you did consul;ng for. Going into consul;ng, I was exposed to many corporate func;ons from marke;ng to opera;ons to finance so I'm aiming at specializing in one of the func;ons in the future.
At McKinsey, what did an average day in the office entail for you? If your job doesn't really have an average day, what would be examples of projects that you work on?
At McKinsey, I worked in the Rome office, where I was working on a project in Istanbul, Turkey with a Fortune 500 company. During the week, I was flying out Sunday nights to Istanbul and spending
two days there with the client company. Either Thursday or Friday I was flying back Rome for Friday in the office. Usually, McKinsey consultants spend most of their ;me on the client side.
I was working on a high‐level team with two directors, one partner, two associate principles, one engagement manager, and one associate ‐ me. Two to three ;mes a week I was working with the team on problem solving. Probably the most thrilling part of working here was that a=er only month in the firm I was expected to challenge directors and partners. They were asking me for advice in my field, and I was as important as they were.
In terms of the work, I was doing performance transforma;on, which is a strategic review and cultural review of the corpora;on. The client went through drama;c changes in the last few years, when the plant doubled from 2000 to 8000 employees in two years. They had a huge intake of workers who hadn't assimilated into the corporate culture and the fric;on among old and new works were impac;ng the ability of the companies to deliver solu;ons. We came in to analyze company strategies, pick the best one and looks at the cultural obstacles that were threatening its implementa;on.
Did your college educaNon help you in your day‐to‐day acNviNes in your job?
Absolutely. When you study engineering, you learn how to solve problems in a structured way, so how to take a big problem, decompose it in smaller problems, and solve them one by one in terms of priority. This approach goes beyond technologies or math‐ you basically learn how to address problems and this applies to any job, and I think that’s why engineering is helpful in so many careers.
A downside to engineering is that engineers are o=en too rigid and don’t think out of the box, but that’s why we go to business school.
Describe some of the most challenging projects that you have worked on.
At Finmeccanica, I worked on one project I enjoyed a lot, in which we basically built a mobile operator (something like Verizon or Unicel) from scratch. We had to implement a network, access it, establish a marke;ng plan, a phone plan, and basically launch a
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business from the ground‐up. I was signg with the CEO of the company at a table, and discussing how to launch a business that was targe;ng 2 million consumers. It was crazy because I was only 25 years old.
How has the credit crisis affected you and your day‐to‐day work, and if it hasn't, how has it affected your colleagues? Do you think as a result more/less students will try to enter your field? In light of the crisis, do you think students would be be?er served working in another field for a few years before trying to break into investment banking, trading, private equity, or hedge funds?
I think this crisis is absolutely affec;ng everybody, both consciously and unconsciously. It has really reduced working opportuni;es and career prospects. Right now, I think I was very lucky to have a job and most of my colleagues are struggling to find a job when most companies are looking for one or two new people and they are going through a stack of resumes.
It is higng banks the hardest right now, but the crisis will start to affect other businesses, including consul;ng. For example, Finmeccanica has reduced hiring and investments and other firms are doing the same. This will affect their ability to invest in other new projects as well. It will take one or two years for the market to get be]er.
I recommend to juniors and seniors who can't find a job in finance or consul;ng now to try to look for alterna;ves that are construc;ve towards one in the future. For, example if someone wants to enter an investment bank an alterna;ve would be working for a private equity firm or in the corporate finance division of a company. Someone interested in consul;ng should look at working for strategy with a corpora;on, or try to start their own entrepreneurial project. A crisis doesn’t mean the world is stopping ‐ there are opportuni;es to build up your opportuni;es and skillsets.
What advice would you give for students who are interested in breaking into consulNng, finance, or related fields? What do you want to tell them about the work that you didn't know but would have appreciated knowing going into the field?
In the recrui;ng process there is really no room for margin of error, so students need to prepare very carefully for the interview, because compe;;on is tough and the bar is set very high. You may not get many opportuni;es so you need to take advantage of those that you are given.
For McKinsey, I applied through the website in which I had to send in a resume, a cover le]er, and fill out an online applica;on. In 2‐3 weeks, you either receive a rejec;on or an invite to the first‐round interview. I was invited for the first round, which is 2 interviews, usually with an engagement manager or an associate principle.
Each one is 45 minutes long and is divided into background ques;ons and a case. McKinsey cases tend to be a bit more structured than other consul;ng cases. In 24‐ 48 hours you get feedback on your performance, and if you make the second round, the firm will fly you to the office and you will have two to three interviews with partners of the office. These tend to be
longer ‐ about an hour ‐ but are similar to the first round interviews otherwise. A=er that, the company either extends you an offer or politely declines you.
My advice for nailing an interview is just be yourself, because at the end of the day they are evalua;ng who you are, and you are evalua;ng them. The important ques;on to ask yourself is whether or not you will have a good ;me working with them. When I worked at McKinsey, I had an amazing ;me ‐ the people were very approachable. The McKinsey stereotype is that they tend to be more rigid personali;es, but I didn't find that at all. I had a lot of fun working there and I developed a really good rela;onship with my co‐workers.
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“I was expected to challenge directors and partners. They were asking me for advice in my field, and I was as important as they were.”
--- Works Cited ---
The Evolu5on of Subprime: The Poli5cs of Home FinanceR. Mason, Joseph, “A Na;onal Homeownership Strategy for the New Millennium”, Market Commentary by Criterion Economics, Feb 26 2008.
Rosner, Josh, “Housing in the New Millennium: A Home Without Equity Is Just a Rental With Debt”, GrahamFisher Porzolio Manager Report, June 29 2001.
Mason, Joseph R. and Josh Rosner, “Where Did the Risk Go? How Misapplied Bond Ra;ngs Cause Mortgage Backed Securi;es and Collateralized Debt Obliga;on Market Disrup;ons”, May 3 2007.
Goldfarb, Zachary A., and Alec Klein , “The Bubble: Day 2: Bust”, The Washington Post, June 16, 2008.
Staying Afloat: Small Business’ Struggle to Keep its Head Above WaterSBA Office of Advocacy. SBA Advocacy. September 2008. h]p://www.sba.gov/advo/stats/sbfaq.pdf (accessed October 31, 2008).
AFP. Small businesses struggle under weight of slowdown. November 2, 2008. h]p://www.afp.com (accessed November 5, 2008).
Overman, Jenny. Fishbone Owner Blames Economy for Closing. November 4, 2008. h]p://www.fortmill;mes.com (accessed November 5, 2008).
An Untapped Source of WealthElshinnawi, Mohamed. "US Companies Aim Adver;sing at Muslim AmericansVoices of America (2007), h ] p : / / www. v o a n ew s . c om / e n g l i s h / a r c h i v e / 2 0 0 7 ‐ 0 9 / 2 0 0 7 ‐ 0 9 ‐ 1 9 ‐ v o a 3 1 . c f m ?CFID=55196607&CFTOKEN=61400416. (accessed October 20, 2008).
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Clemens, Michael. "Costs and Causes of Zimbabwe’s Crisis." July, 2005. www.cgdev.org/files/2918_file_Zimbabwe_Crisis.pdf
Mugari, Shakeman. "Zimbabwe: IMF Es;mates Infla;on At 150 000 Percent." January 18, 2008. h]p://allafrica.com/stories/200801180772.html
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--- The STAFF ---
Current Officers Contributors Content Editors
President - Alex MartinianVice President - Blair Randall
Treasurer - Danny KimSecretary - Christine SouffrantHead of Business Section - Alex
GonzalezHead of International Section - Rubin
SrimalHead of Investment Section - Alex Bao
Head of Interviews - Tony DengHead Content Editor - Bryon Alston
Layout Editor - Jason LasterWebsite Development - Jack Liu
Business Manager - Ahmad Nazeri
BusinessWilliam Mergner
Kihyun KimIrfan Mulic
Alexander VillarRay LeoniKunal Arya
InternationalYu Xi Su
Michael C. JosephGiulia Siccardo
InvestmentsAlexander D. LuceyJohn W. Spradling
David E. KellenbergerKareem Halim
InterviewsShanel BallooPaola Murcia
Kathryn ArffaSisi Yao
Mike NovoselNathaniel Kanefield
Michael Joseph
Fall Edition 14
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