daria preston understanding the influencing factors of the international energy trade senior honors...
TRANSCRIPT
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;
^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
K D}btt/Lkufblki Tukuftufdki Klkivtft
Ek}fk S}ntubl
HBLT >;3;AMHblb}t Uhntft
E}, Ok}ufl T, Newk}et
Ts}flg =3;=
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=
Kmtu}kdu
Uhn fosb}ukldn b` nxsib}flg nln}gv s}be~dufbl ft `~lekonluki ub lbu bliv uhn t~tukflne
`~ldufblkifuv b` db~lu}fnt gibmkiiv) m~u fu kitb hbiet uhn jnv ub `~u~}n flun}lkufblki u}ken
bssb}u~lfufnt, Hftub}v hkt s}bpfene ~t wfuh kosin npfenldn b` uhn nxu}non fosb}ukldn whfdh
bmukflonlu kle kddntt ub nln}gv }ntb~}dnt hkt bl lkufblki kle flun}lkufblki sbifdfnt,
Dblunosb}k}fiv) sbifufdki u~}obfi) ndblbofd ebwlu~}l) kle hnfghunlne unltfblt hkpn non}gne fl
k}nkt t~dh kt uhn Ofeein Nktu) mnuwnnl sbtu/tbpfnu mibd tukunt) Tb~uhnktu Ktfk) kle uhn ^lfune
Tukunt e~n ub kl fld}nktne `nk} b` ensinuflg lbl/}nlnwkmin nln}gv tb~}dnt, @b} oklv) }ntb~}dn
tdk}dfuv ft lb iblgn} k okuun} b` tsnd~ikufbl) m~u k hk}th }nkifuv, ^len}tukleflg kle klkivqflg
tukunt fldnlufpnt fl uhnf} endftfbl/okjflg s}bdnttnt }ngk}eflg uhn nln}gv u}ken ft pfuki fl
sbtu~ikuflg kle dblunosikuflg uhn `~u~}n b` kl npn}/gibmkifqflg wb}ie, Kiuhb~gh k tfglf`fdklu
ifun}ku~}n nxftut bl uhn ndbibgfdki dbltn{~nldnt b` }ngfblki nln}gv dblt~osufbl kle s}be~dufbl)
kt wnii kt uhn foskdu b` tsndf`fd nln}gv }ntb~}dn dblt~osufbl b` k }ngfbl) intt }ntnk}dh kle ekuk
nxftut fl uhn k}nk b` uhn flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken, Uhft sksn} tnnjt ub kee}ntt k sfndn b` uhn
g}nkun} s~qqin fl ~len}tukleflg nln}gv u}ken skuun}lt
Uhft uhntft kfot ub nxsib}n uhn tfofik}fufnt kle ef``n}nldnt `b~le fl db~lu}fnt endftfblt
sn}ukflflg ub u}ken fl flun}lkufblki nln}gv, Mktne bl ifun}ku~}n whfdh eftd~ttnt ndblbofd
fldnlufpnt kle kmfifufnt b` db~lu}fnt ub ~ufifqn uhnf} s~}dhktflg sbwn} fl nlgkgflg fl flun}lkufblki
u}ken) F dbltu}~du k tukuftufdki klkivtft bl k d}btt/lkufblki inpni b` `fpn ef``n}nlu flensnlenlu
pk}fkmint uhku wb~ie sbunlufkiiv k``ndu flun}lkufblki nln}gv fosb}ut, F dbiindu ekuk `}bo unl
}kleboiv dhbtnl db~lu}fnt wb}iewfen) bpn} uhn sn}fbe b` ufon `}bo ;663 ub =3;3, @b} nkdh
db~lu}v kle uhnf} ekuk ufon `}kon) F klkivqn uhn n``ndut b` uhn `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint bl uhn
ubuki lnu nln}gv fosb}ut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES (g}btt ebontufd s}be~du1 GLS (g}btt lkufblki
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
4
s}be~du) GLS sn} dksfuk) u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` ubuki GES) ubuki }ntb~}dnt }nlu kt k sn}dnlukgn
b` GES) kle `flkiiv F nxsib}n uhn Sbifuv FP flenx kt k onkt~}n b` sbifufdki difokun wfuhfl k
db~lu}v kt mktne bl k uwnluv sbflu tvtuno) onkt~}flg enobd}kdv kle k~ubd}kdv, F `fle lb
tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn fl }ngk}et ub ubuki lnu nln}gv fosb}u kle kii flensnlenlu pk}fkmint wfuh uhn
nxdnsufbl b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES, F `fle uhku }ntb~}dn }nlut
s}bpn ub mn uhn ibln pk}fkmin ub sb}u}kv tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn kd}btt obenit wfuh uhn s}npfb~tiv
entd}fmne flensnlenlu pk}fkmin dblu}bit, F uhn}n`b}n okjn uhn k}g~onlu uhku }ngk}eintt b` uhn
inpni b` u}ken bsnllntt) kt wnii kt ndblbofd tfqn kle wnkiuh) ndblbofd kle sbifufdki dbosbtfufbl
b` k db~lu}v) uhn fosb}ukldn b` nln}gv kle kddntt ub nln}gv ft pki~ne `k} ob}n uhkl buhn} ktsndut
b` k db~lu}vt gbpn}lkldn, ]nt~iut thbw uhku f` k db~lu}v hkt k ibw inpni b` lkufblki lku~}ki
nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) ndblbofd dbltfen}kufblt wfii tfen wfuh kl fld}nktn b` lnu `b}nfgl nln}gv
fosb}ut ub tkuft`v nln}gv enokle, Uhft dbldi~tfbl ef}nduiv bssbtnt k tukunonlu oken mv
tdhbik}t) Thkllbl Mnnmn kle Ok}v Jkieb}) whb dikfo fl uhnf} mbbj) Uhn ^iufokun Wnksbl Ft
Lb Wnksbl) uhku db~lu}fnt k}n `~ldufblflg ~len} k tu}kungfd tu}kungv b` u}ken) }kuhn} uhkl k
ok}jnu mktne tvtuno, Uhn }nt~iut b` uhft uhntft t~ssb}u uhn dbldi~tfbl uhku db~lu}fnt k}n
}ntsbleflg ub ok}jnu t~ssiv kle enokle) dblu}ktuflg Mnnmn kle Jkieb}t dikfot,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
5
@b} E}, Newk}et) kl ~lsk}kiinine onlub} kle kepftb})
ov sk}nlut)
kle Tk}kh kle ]fpn} Mnkl)
wfuhb~u whbtn `k}o kle enefdkufbl F wb~ie hkpn lnpn} eftdbpn}ne ov bwl skttfbl,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
>
Ukmin b` Dblunlut
F, Flu}be~dufbl,,0FF, Fosb}ukldn b` Ubsfd,,,;;
FFF, Nxftuflg Ifun}ku~}n,;5FP, ]ntnk}dh Entfgl kle Ekuk,=3P, @fleflgt,=7
PF, Dbldi~tfblt kle @~}uhn} Fosifdkufblt,,,46PFF, ]n`n}nldnt,,55
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
0
Flu}be~dufbl
Uhn =;tu dnlu~}v hkt tb `k} mnnl kl n}k b` undhlbibgfdki flgnl~fuv) onefdflki of}kdint)
sbifufdki ~s}ftflgt kle }npbi~ufblt) kle uhn npn} g}bwflg ~len}tukleflg uhku b~} wb}ie ft lbu
lnk}iv kt mfg kt b}fgflkiiv uhb~ghu, Wfuh uhn gibmki sbs~ikufbl d}nnsflg ~s ub k ubuki b` 7 mfiifbl
snbsin) fu ft mndboflg sbfglkluiv dink} uhku b~} wb}ie ft bl uhn m}flj b` gibmki tdk}dfuv) fl kl
k}nk whfdh ~lufi pn}v }ndnluiv hkt kiwkvt mnnl dbltfen}ne ub mn fleftsnltfmin1 lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt,
@}bo wkun}) ub `bbe) ub k}kmin ikle) mktfd `kdnut b` h~okl t~}pfpki kle lndnttfuv k}n mndboflg
ubsfdt b` hnkune eftd~ttfbl kle sbunlufki tb~}dnt `b} flun}tukun wk}t, Hbwnpn}) npnl fl db~lu}fnt
whn}n mktfd h~okl lndnttfuv ft tufii ken{~kuniv s}bpfene `b}) k}nkt b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dn tdk}dfuv
hkpn mndbon ubsfdt b` hk}e sbwn} dbldn}lt, Lkufblki tnd~}fuv tu}kungfnt) whfin mnflg dbltdfb~t
b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dn tdk}dfuv) hkpn sk}ufd~ik}iv `bd~tne bl uhn tnd~}fufqkufbl b` lbl/}nlnwkmin
}ntb~}dn nxu}kdufbl kle bmukflonlu, Uhft tu}~ggin mnuwnnl uhn lndnttfuv ub s}bundu s}be~dufbl
kle kddntt ub nln}gv tb~}dnt kle uhn }nt~iuflg nlpf}blonluki eng}kekufbl ft k dbltuklu ubsfd b`
eftkg}nnonlu kle sbifdv enmkunt) hflgnt b~} d~}}nlu tbdfnuki hkmfut kle tu}~du~}n mnuwnnl
sn}snu~kune entu}~dufbl kle gibmki t~ddntt,
Uhn ^lfune Tukunt ft lbu tni`/t~``fdfnlu fl bfi, Bfi fl uhft dblunxu okv mn }nsikdne wfuh klv
tb~}dn b` lbl/}nlnwkmin nln}gv fl uhn dktn b` uhn ^lfune Tukunt, Fl uhn g}nkun} tsndu}~o b`
flun}lkufblki nln}gv flensnlenldn) oklv db~lu}fnt k}n `kdflg tfofik} s}bminot fl uhn k}nk b`
nln}gv u}ken) b} tfosiv fl uhn dkskmfifuv b` s}be~dflg kle s}bpfeflg nln}gv `b} fut bwl tukun,
Kdhfnpflg flensnlenldn `}bo `b}nfgl lbl/}nlnwkmin nln}gv tb~}dnt ft k gbki `b} oklv tukunt)
wfuh uhn ifjnifhbbe b` kdu~ki `}~fufbl ensnleflg ik}gniv bl `~u~}n undhlbibgfdki kle u}ken
endftfblt, Whnuhn} uhft ft mndk~tn }nlnwkmin nln}gv tb~}dnt k}n ubb nxsnltfpn ub s}be~dn mktne
bl uhn db~lu}vt undhlbibgfdki kepkldnonlu) ndblbofd kmfifuv) b} sbifufdki difokun) b`unl ufont k
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
7
db~lu}v wnkiuhv wfuh nln}gv tb~}dnt ft ~lkmin ub s}be~dn ebontufdkiiv) kle nfuhn} fosb}ut
`b}nfgl s}be~dne nln}gv t~ssifnt b} nxsb}ut fut bwl d}~en nln}gv }ntb~}dnt, Nln}gv tnd~}fuv ft
ob}n uhkl on}niv k `kdub} b` h~okl tnd~}fuv) m~u ft fltunke pfnwne mv oklv db~lu}fnt ensnlenlu
bl enpnibsne fl`}ktu}~du~}n kt okuun} b` uhn ~uobtu lndnttfuv) ub uhn sbflu whn}n ofifuk}v
s}ntnldn ub tnd~}n nln}gv ft a~tu kt fosb}uklu kt fu ft fl s}bunduflg mbuh lkpki kle kf} }fghut,
(Mnnmn kle Jkieb} ;04
Uhn ^lfune Tukunt) ]~ttfk) kle Dhflk kii unle ub kebsu k tu}kungfd }kuhn} uhkl ok}jnu
kss}bkdh ub nln}gv tnd~}fuv) tkv Mnnmn kle Jkieb}) t~ggntuflg uhku fl }ngk}et ub nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt) uhn}n ft lbuhflg ob}n fosb}uklu uhkl enpnibsflg k sbtfufbl b` tnd~}fuv fl }ngk}et ub
mbuh uhn t~ssiv kle kddntt ub }ntb~}dnt, ]kufblkifuv wb~ie kii~en ub db~lu}fnt okjflg u}ken
endftfblt mktne bl ndblbofd kmfifuv) kt wnii kt s~}t~flg dhbfdnt uhku k}n sbifufdkiiv
kepklukgnb~t) mbuh lkufblkiiv kle flun}lkufblkiiv, Hbwnpn}) Mnnmn kle Jkieb} sbtu~ikun uhku
nln}gv tnd~}fuv ft kss}bkdhne `}bo k u}kefufblki uwnlufnuh/dnlu~}v dbldnsufbl b`hk}e tnd~}fuv)
k ukdufd s}fok}fiv nlu}nldhne fl ofifuk}v nl`b}dnonlu ubwk}et uhn nle gbki, Tukuflg uhku
ndblbofdkiiv wnkiuhv kle flun}lkufblkiiv sbwn}`~i db~lu}fnt s~}t~n tu}kungfd }kuhn} uhkl ok}jnu
kss}bkdhnt fl bmukflflg nln}gv tb~}dnt onklt uhku onkt~}nt k}n ukjnl ub bmukfl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt
ku kii dbtut) kmkleblflg ok}jnu s}ntt~}nt kle skuun}lt, Tu}kungfd kss}bkdhnt kfo ub fld}nktn
kddnttfmfifuv kle bmukflonlu b` nln}gv }ntb~}dnt ku klv dbtu) whfin ok}jnu kss}bkdhnt `bd~t bl
enpnibsflg u}ken skuun}lt kle }nikufblthfst, Fldnlufpnt k}n hfghn} ub dble~du ~lkuu}kdufpn u}ken
kg}nnonlut f` uhft wfii ~iufokuniv fos}bpn db~lu}vt tu}kungfd sbtfufbl fl nln}gv }ntb~}dn
bmukflonlu, (Mnnmn kle Jkieb} ;0>
F` Mnnmn kle Jkieb} k}n db}}ndu uhku nln}gv dblt~osufbl kle u}ken k}n e}fpnl mv tu}kungfd
dhbfdn }kuhn} uhkl ok}jnu dhbfdn) uhnl uhn g}nkun} t~mandu }nokflt b` dink} fldnlufpnt fl nln}gv
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
8
fosb}ukufbl kle u}ken, Dblt~osufbl kle enokle b` nln}gv ft npfenldne uh}b~gh uhn e}kokufd
ef``n}nldnt b` sn} dksfuk nln}gv dblt~osufbl kd}btt lkufblt mktne bl lnu ndblbofd enpnibsonlu
(G}nnl 6, Wfuh uhft fl ofle) k {~ntufbl }nokflt fl }ngk}et ub intt `ftdkiiv wnkiuhv db~lu}fnt kle
uhnf} ok}gflki s}bsnltfuv kle wfiiflglntt ub tsnle bl `b}nfgl b} ebontufdkiiv s}be~dne nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt, Lnu ndblbofd enpnibsonlu ebnt lbu fldi~en ft }ngfblki efpn}tfuv kle ef``n}nldnt fl
ndbibgfdki `kdub}t) t~dh kt difokun) gnbg}kshfd eftsn}tfbl kle sbs~ikufbl enltfuv) kii b` whfdh
kitb k``ndu k db~lu}vt nln}gv dblt~osufbl kle enokle,
Gnln}kiiv tsnkjflg) nln}gv oben}lfqkufbl ft k jnv flefdkub} b` dblt~osufbl wfuhfl k
db~lu}v (G}nnl ;3, Nln}gv oben}lfqkufbl fldi~ent `kdub}t t~dh kt ndblbofd kdufpfuv fl uhn
fle~tu}fki kle tn}pfdnt tndub}t) skuun}lt b` u}kltsb}ukufbl) kle }ntfenlufki dblt~osufbl, (G}nnl
;3 Uhntn uh}nn k}nkt k}n lbu bliv s}ntnlu wfuhfl enpnibsne kle oben}lfqne db~lu}fnt: kii sikv
okab} }bint fl enpnibsflg db~lu}fnt kt wnii, Hbwnpn}) nln}gv dblt~osufbl ft kitb enun}oflne
mv b~utfen pk}fkmint lbu dfune mv G}nnl uhku enun}ofln oben}lfqkufbl) t~dh kt k `~ldufblflg
gbpn}lonlu uhku okv mn b}fnlune ubwk}et g}nnl flfufkufpnt) }nlnwkmin nln}gv) kle kt Akv Hkjnt
eftd~ttnt fl K Endik}kufbl b` Nln}gv Flensnlenldn e~}flg uhn S}ntfenlu Dk}un}t
keoflftu}kufbl uhn ^lfune Tukunt) k sn}fbe b` nln}gv `ktuflg kle k gnln}ki dkii ub k }ne~dufbl b`
nln}gv ~tkgn, (Hkjnt >8
Fl G}nnlt sksn} bl Nxsikflflg D}btt/Lkufblki Pk}fkufbl fl Nln}gv Dblt~osufbl) hn
t~ggntut klbuhn} uhnb}v nln}gv dblt~osufbl ft dblefufblne mv k db~lu}vt ibdkufbl wfuhfl uhn
flun}lkufblki ndblbofd hfn}k}dhv, (G}nnl ;; ]ngfblki ef``n}nldnt) sbifufdki sbtfufblflg) kle
tbdfnuki s}kdufdnt) hn dikfot) k}n tbon b` uhn okab} k}nkt whfdh enun}ofln k db~lu}vt
dblt~osufbl }kun, Uhntn `kdub}t kitb) fl u~}l) enun}ofln wnhuhn} b} lbu k db~lu}v wfii fosb}u
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
6
`b}nfgl nln}gv) ensnleflg bl uhn enokle kle kmfifuv ub s}be~dn nln}gv wfuhfl uhn db~lu}vt bwl
un}}fub}v,
Dink}iv) ~len}tukleflg k db~lu}vt dblt~osufbl }kun b` nln}gv ft lbu kl nktv ubsfd ub
ukdjin) inu kibln onkt~}n, Kt k mktfd }~in b` ndblbofdt) dblt~osufbl ft e}fpnl mv enokle) whfdh
o~tu mn kee}nttne uh}b~gh nfuhn} lkufblki b} flun}lkufblki onklt, Oklv tdhbik}t nxsib}n uhn
ubsfd b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl) hbwnpn} intt ft eftd~ttne bl uhn ubsfd b` nln}gv u}ken, Whfin
dblt~osufbl kle s}be~dufbl ft enun}oflne mv bpn}k}dhflg `kdub}t b` d~iu~}n) sbifufdt) kle
ndblbofdt) u}ken kle k db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub enpnibs b} s~}dhktn nln}gv }ntb~}dnt k}n ~lnxkoflne
uh}b~gh uhntn tkon pk}fkmint,
Uhn s~}sbtn b` uhft sksn} wfii mn ub klkivqn kle ~len}tukle uhn pk}fkmint uhku enun}ofln k
db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) }kuhn} uhkl endfeflg ub s}be~dn
ebontufdkiiv, Uhn okab} {~ntufbl ub mn kltwn}ne wfuhfl uhft sksn} ft whnuhn} nln}gv fosb}ukufbl
ft kl k}nk uhku ft enun}oflne mv k db~lu}vt d~iu~}n) flun}lkufblki ndblbofd hfn}k}dhv) mv uhn
kob~lu b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dnt ibdkune ebontufdkiiv) b} buhn} `kdub}t dbldn}lflg ndblbofd
kmfifuv, Whfin lkufblki enokle ef}nduiv k``ndut k db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub nfuhn} fosb}u b} s}be~dn
nln}gv ebontufdkiiv) uhn pk}fkmint uhku enun}ofln k `flki endftfbl fl }ngk}et ub uhn s}fok}v b}fgfl
b` nln}gv mndbont k dink}iv en`flflg dhk}kdun}ftufd b` k db~lu}vt flun}lkufblki tuku~t kt
ensnlenlu b} flensnlenlu `}bo `b}nfgl nln}gv,
F wfii dble~du k ifun}ku~}n }npfnw bl M}fkl G}nnlt sksn} Nxsikflflg D}btt/Lkuflbki
Pk}fkufbl fl Nln}gv Dblt~osufbl) whfdh wfii `~}uhn} nxkofln uhnb}fnt whfdh kfo ub `~}uhn}
nxsikfl nln}gv dblt~osufbl) whfdh inke ub dhbfdn b` nln}gv u}ken, K }npfnw wfii kitb mn
dble~dune bl Dk}ibt Sktdk~i kle Ablkuhkl Nijflet nefune mbbj Nln}gv Tnd~}fuv) whfdh enipnt
flub uhn nxsiklkufbl b` nln}gv ensnlenldv kle flensnlenldv) kt wnii kt uhn en`flfufbl b` nln}gv
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;3
tnd~}fuv, Sktdk~i kle Nijflet }ntnk}dh kttftu fl d}nkuflg k }n`n}nldn e~}flg uhn klkivtft b` uhn
pk}fkmint whfdh k``ndu nln}gv u}ken, ^len}tukleflg uhntn s}npfb~t tu~efnt wfii g}nkuiv kttftu fl
~len}tukleflg uhn }nt~iut b` uhft tu~ev) t~dh kt whnuhn} db~lu}fnt dhbfdnt u}~iv k}n tu}fduiv
dbl`flne ub tnd~}fufqflg uhn db~lu}vt wnkiuh kle kddntt ub lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt) b} f` db~lu}fnt skv
ob}n kuunlufbl ub ndblbofd dbltu}kflut kle bsufo~o endftfblt, Kt s}npfb~tiv onlufblne fl uhft
sksn}) Mnnmn kle Jkieb} dikfo uhku fl uhn =;tu
dnlu~}v) db~lu}fnt bsn}kun ~len} uhn gbki b`
tnd~}fufqkufbl, @~}uhn} flpntufgkuflg uhn onklflg b` nln}gv (flensnlenldn kle nln}gv tnd~}fuv
wfii enpnibs k ennsn} ~len}tukleflg f` Mnnmn kle Jkieb}t dikfot k}n fl `kdu pfkmin, @flkiiv) F
wfii }npfnw Ofdhkni Inpft sksn} bl Nln}gv Tnd~}fuv1 Kl Kgnlek `b} ]ntnk}dh wfuh k ob}n
flunltfpn `bd~t bl uhn }bin b` bfi fl uhn flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken ok}jnu,
F b~uifln kle s}ntnlu uhn `fleflgt b` k d}btt/lkufblki tukuftufdki klkivtft sn}`b}one bl k
tnu b` unl }kleboiv dhbtnl db~lu}fnt bpn} uhn tskl b` uwnluv vnk}t (;663/=3;3 whfdh kfot ub
dbld}nuniv onkt~}n uhn k``ndu b` `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint bl uhn tflgin ensnlenlu pk}fkmin b`
nln}gv }ntb~}dn fosb}ut kt k ubuki lnu sn}dnlukgn b` GES (g}btt ebontufd s}be~du, Uhft klkivtft
wkt dble~dune ~tflg k iflnk} }ng}nttfbl klkivtft obeni) kle fl uhft sksn} F s}ntnlu uh}nn tnsk}kun
obenit) nkdh klkivqflg k ef``n}nlu `kdnu b` uhn tukuftufdki klkivtft, Uhn `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint
dhbtnl ub en`fln k db~lu}vt dhbfdn b` `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl k}n1 GLS (g}btt lkufblki
s}be~du) GLS sn} dksfuk) u}ken kt k ubuki sn}dnlukgn b` GES) lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k
sn}dnlukgn b` GES) kle `flkiiv uhn Sbifuv FP }nt~iut fl b}en} ub onkt~}n uhn inpni b` enobd}kdv
wfuhfl uhn db~lu}fnt t~}pnvne,
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;;
Fosb}ukldn b` Ubsfd
Eklfni Vn}gfl okv hkpn sn}`nduiv tukune uhn fosb}ukldn b` nln}gv tnd~}fuv kle u}ken fl
hft obtu }ndnlu s~mifdkufbl dkiine) Uhn [~ntu1 Nln}gv) Tnd~}fuv) kle uhn ]nokjflg b` uhn
Oben}l Wb}ie,
Uhn }kdn hkt dn}ukfliv mng~l, Uhn b~udbon wfii eb o~dh ub en`fln b~} nln}gv
wb}ie fl uhn endkent khnke fl un}ot b` whn}n wn gnu b~} nln}gv) hbw wn ~tn fu)
kle whb uhn wflln}t wfii mn, M~u fu ft o~dh ubb tbbl `b} klvbln ub ukjn k pfdub}v
iks, (Vn}gfl 7;3
Kuunlufbl fl }ntnk}dhflg kle ~len}tukleflg ok}jnu `~ldufblt kle db~lu}v endftfblt fl uhn }nkio
b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) u}ken) s}be~dufbl) kle bpn}kii u}ken wfii hkpn k tfglf`fdklu tukjn fl uhn
gibmki `~u~}n, Hbwnpn}) kl fosb}uklu sbflu whfdh ft oken mv Vn}gfl ft uhku uhn `~u~}n b` uhn
flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken ft uhku fu wfii mn k ok}kuhbl) lbu k ts}flu, Dhbfdnt whfdh wfii mn oken
foonefkuniv kle n``ndufpniv wfii mn uhn blnt whfdh wfii k``ndu `~u~}n u}ken bsufblt) kle
sbunlufkiiv sbifufdki }nikufblthfst,
Uhn fosb}ukldn b` tu~evflg uhn flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken dkl mn sikdne flub uh}nn k}nkt
b` `bd~t, @f}tu) k lkufblt ndblbofd pn}tkufifuv) t~ddntt) kle ~iufokun bssb}u~lfuv `b} g}bwuh ft
hnkpfiv ufne ub uhn lkufblt kmfifuv ub fosb}u kle nxsb}u, Ibbjflg ub uhn `~u~}n) uhn k}nk b` nln}gv
u}ken wfii mndbon fld}nktflgiv ob}n fosb}uklu, Flu}fltfdkiiv ufne ub uhn fl`}ktu}~du~}n b` k
db~lu}v) uhn s}bdntt b` dble~duflg m~tflntt u}kltkdufblt) kle uhn gnln}ki tobbuh `~ldufbl b` k
lkufbl) nln}gv }ntb~}dnt k}n lbu a~tu k dboobefuv) m~u k lndnttfuv, Uhn tu~ev dble~dune wfuhfl
uhft sksn} kee}nttnt uhn jnv dbldn}lt b` ~len}tukleflg fldnlufpnt b` fosb}uflg `b}nfgl nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt }kuhn} s}be~dflg ebontufdkiiv, Kt fl kii k}nkt b` ndblbofdt kle ok}jnut) fldnlufpnt fl
dblt~on}t kle s}be~dn}t okuun}, ^len}tukleflg uhntn fldnlufpnt dkl nfuhn} okjn b} m}nkj k
ok}jnu, Whku uhft klkivtft tnnjt ub s}bpfen ft k oklkgnkmin tukuftufdki klkivtft whfdh hnist ub
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;=
tu}nlguhnl b} efts}bpn `fpn pk}fkmint whfdh fl bln wkv b} klbuhn} k``ndu k db~lu}vt endftfbl
okjflg,
Kt fl kii m~tflntt u}kltkdufblt) ~len}tukleflg fldnlufpnt) b} fl uhn dktn b` uhft tukuftufdki
klkivtft) ~len}tukleflg uhn pk}fkmint fldi~ene) k}n pfuki fl enpnibsflg k ok}jnu whfdh ft
o~u~kiiv mnln`fdfki `b} kii sk}ufnt, Hnldn) fl enpnibsflg uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft) k s}fon
fosb}ukldn dkl mn ~len}tubbe fl uhn wkv pk}fkmint k``ndu nln}gv fosb}ukufbl, Whfdh pk}fkmint
k}n obtu }ninpklu ub nln}gv fosb}ukufbl kle whfdh pk}fkmint k}n thbwl ub mn f}}ninpklu dkl kttftu
sbifdv okjn}t fl okjflg u}ken endftfblt ub tnd~}n `~u~}n flpntuonlut, Flun}kdufblt mnuwnnl
o~iufsin pk}fkmint kle ok}jnu fl`i~nldnt k}n kitb hfghiv pki~kmin fl flpntufgkuflg ndblbofd kle
ok}jnu mnhkpfb}, Uhft klkivtft s}bpfent kl klkivtft kle entd}fsufbl b` uhn pk}fb~t n``ndut b` uhn
s}ntnldn kle kmtnldn b` `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint whfdh fl uhft dktn k``ndu uhn fosb}ukufbl b`
`b}nfgl nln}gv, ^len}tukleflg uhntn mnhkpfb}t wfii kiibw `b} `~u~}n sbtu~ikufbl kle s}nefdufblt,
K tndble okab} ubsfd b` fosb}ukldn dbldn}lt uhn okuun} b` kiun}lkufpn kle t~tukflkmin
nln}gv }ntb~}dnt fl }ngk}et ub gibmki difokun dhklgn, Uhn ok}jnu `b} kiun}lkufpn nln}gv tb~}dnt
ft bln whfdh hkt mnnl ~len}enpnibsne) m~u hkt e}kwl k g}nkun} kob~lu b` kuunlufbl kle dbldn}l,
Sk}ufd~ik}iv) uhn enpnibsonlu b` }nlnwkmin kle t~tukflkmin nln}gv }ntb~}dnt ft k hbu ubsfd `b}
oklv dbosklfnt) sbifdv okjn}t) kle npnl `b} uhn b}eflk}v dfufqnl, Kee}nttflg kle flpntufgkuflg
uhn pk}fkmint whfdh k``ndu uhn fosb}ukufbl b` `b}nfgl nln}gv) b} tufo~ikun uhn dhbfdn b` `b}gbflg
s}be~dflg nln}gv ebontufdkiiv) dkl kitb thne ifghu fl ~len}tukleflg whku enun}oflnt ok}jnu
endftfblt `b} uhn kmtunlufbl `}bo ebontufdkiiv s}be~dne kiun}lkufpn nln}gv tb~}dnt,
Gibmki difokun dhklgn kt k `kdub} whfdh m}flgt fosb}ukldn ub uhft tu~ev }~lt fl uhn tkon
pnfl kt }ntnk}dh fl uhn k}nk b` kiun}lkufpn kle t~tukflkmin nln}gv, Whnl tsnkjflg fl un}ot b`
fldnlufpnt bl k gibmki tdkin `b} kee}nttflg uhn ubsfd b` gibmki difokun dhklgn) k tu~ev whfdh
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;4
kee}nttnt ef}ndu pk}fkmint k``nduflg lkufblki nln}gv dblt~osufbl) s}be~dufbl) kle u}ken dkl
fii~oflkun lkufblki kss}bkdhnt ub uhft ubsfd, ^len}tukleflg k db~lu}vt sn}tsndufpn whnl
kss}bkdhflg uhn ubsfd b` u}ken kttftut fl s}nefduflg db~lu}vt bsufoki dhbfdnt, Uhft tu~ev db~ie
nktfiv mn kssifne fl uhn k}nk b` fldnlufpfqflg) `b} whnl uhn }bbu b` uhn nle }nt~iu ft ~len}tubbe)
kttftuflg db~lu}fnt fl okjflg dhbfdnt mbuh nlpf}blonlukiiv dbltdfb~t kle ndblbofdkiiv
bsufo~o endftfblt,
Uhft tu~ev ft fosb}uklu `b} k uhf}e }nktbl) fl }ngk}et ub lkufblki tnd~}fuv, Kt wfii mn
`~}uhn} eftd~ttne uh}b~gh k }npfnw b` nxftuflg ifun}ku~}n) lkufblki tnd~}fuv ft k ubsfd b` dbltuklu
dblpn}tkufbl) kle wfii bliv dblufl~n ub mndbon ob}n fosb}uklu fl `~u~}n endkent, Kt
kddnttfmfifuv kle }nifkmfifuv b` nln}gv tb~}dnt ft ubs s}fb}fuv whnl fu dbont ub tnd~}fuv okuun}t)
~len}tukleflg pk}fkmint whfdh ef}ndu db~lu}v fosb}ukufbl b} kpn}tfbl ub u}ken wfii kttftu fl
~len}tukleflg d~}}nlu db~lu}v endftfbl okjflg kt wnii kt sbunlufki `~u~}n kdufblt, O~dh fl uhn
tkon wkv whfdh uhn k}nkt b` kiun}lkufpn kle t~tukflkmin nln}gv }ntb~}dnt hflgn bl uhn
~len}tukleflg b` fldnlufpnt) nln}gv tnd~}fuv }nifnt hnkpfiv bl uhn tvluhntft b` db~lu}v
dbbsn}kufbl kle obufpkufbl, Fl }ngk}et ub lkufblki nln}gv) k ennsn} kle m}bken} ~len}tukleflg b`
u}ken kle uhn ubuki ndblbofd tvtuno ft hfghiv kepklukgnb~t fl fltukiiflg s~mifd,
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;5
Nxftuflg Ifun}ku~}n
M}fkl G}nnl nxkoflnt nxunltfpniv uhn o~iuf pk}fkmin `kdub}t uhku sbunlufkiiv k``ndu nln}gv
dblt~osufbl, Fl hft sksn} Nxsikflflg D}btt/Lkufblki Pk}fkufbl fl Nln}gv Dblt~osufbl) G}nnl
dbltfen}t `b~} ef``n}nlu uhnb}fnt b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl d}btt/lkufblkiiv) kttnttflg wnhuhn}
oben}lfqkufbl) ensnlenldv) ndbibgfdki `kdub}t) b} sbifufdki ktsndut hkpn uhn g}nkuntu fl`i~nldn bl
nln}gv dblt~osufbl, G}nnl }ndbglfqnt uhn wfen pk}fkufbl b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl kle
tukuftufdkiiv klkivqnt nln}gv dblt~osufbl ~len} uhn `biibwflg {~ntufbl kle ktt~osufblt1
Wnkiuhfn}) ob}n undhlbibgfdkiiv kepkldne db~lu}fnt dblt~on ik}gn thk}nt b`
nln}gv sn} dksfuk, Flenne) u}kefufblki enpnibsonlu uhnb}ftut hkpn pfnwne nln}gv
dblt~osufbl kt kl flefdkub}b` oben}lfqkufbl Tnpn}ki tu~efnt hkpn fii~tu}kune
uhn wfen pk}fkufblt mnuwnnl db~lu}fnt fl uhn kob~lut b` nln}gv dblt~one sn}dksfuknpnl koblg db~lu}fnt b` tfofik} inpnit b` ndblbofd enpnibsonlu,
(G}nnl ;3
G}nnlt bmtn}pkufbl b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl inpnit pk}vflg npnl koblg db~lu}fnt whfdh
okflukfl tfofik} ndblbofd enpnibsonlu t~ggntut k pn}v flun}ntuflg bmtn}pkufbl fl un}ot b` mbuh
dblt~osufbl kle nln}gv u}ken,
G}nnl `f}tu nxsikflt nln}gv dblt~osufbl uhn oben}lfqkufbl sn}tsndufpn whfdh dikfot uhku
enpnibsonlu ft uhn jnv `kdub} fl nln}gv dblt~osufbl dnlu}ki ub kl fos}bpne tuklek}e b`
ifpflg) fos}bpne hnkiuh kle ne~dkufbl) kle sbifufdki `}nnebot, (G}nnl ;3 Uhft oben}lfqkufbl
sn}tsndufpn wkt fldb}sb}kune flub uhn klkivtft ~len}ukjnl fl uhft sksn}) uh}b~gh fldi~eflg uhn
`kdub}t b` GES kle GES sn} dksfuk kt k onklt b` onkt~}flg k db~lu}vt wnkiuh, Whfin G}nnl
kdd~}kuniv bmtn}pnt uh}b~gh uhn tu~efnt b` Tdhfssn} kle Onvn}) uhku oben}lfqkufbl ebnt k``ndu
uhn flunltfuv b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Uhn klkivtft ~len}ukjnl fl uhft }ntnk}dh) `flet uhku
oben}lfqkufbl hkt intt b` kl n``ndu bl uhn flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken,
G}nnl s}bdnnet ub eftd~tt uhn }ninpkldn b` uhn ensnlenldv uhnb}v) whfdh k}g~nt uhku
enpnibsonlu) wnkiuh) kle dblt~osufbl k}n dblefufblne mv k db~lu}vt ibdkufbl wfuhfl uhn
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;>
flun}lkufblki ndblbofd hfn}k}dhv, (G}nnl ;; Uhft ft kl k}nk uhku db~ie mn kmtbi~univ `~}uhn}
nxsib}ne fl ikun} klkivufdki }ntnk}dh s}bandut, Kt G}nnl sbflut b~u)
enpnibsonlu b` uhn ndblbofdkiiv eboflklu db~lu}fnt bdd~}t ku uhn nxsnltn b`
intt enpnibsne db~lu}fnt, Fl sk}ufd~ik}) uhn sbifufdki kle ndblbofd dbiblfqkufbl
b` sn}fshn}ki tukunt hkt }nt~iune fl k tvtuno fl whfdh lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt k}nnxu}kdune `}bo sbb}n} db~lu}fnt ku k}uf`fdfkiiv ibw s}fdnt ub mn dblt~one fl uhn
eboflklu db~lu}fnt, Uhn ensnlenlu tuku~t b` uhn wnkjn} db~lu}fnt kle uhn ibtt b`
uhnf} }ntb~}dnt s}npnlu tfglf`fdklu fld}nktnt fl ebontufd wnkiuh, Fl n``ndu)
wnkiuhv db}n db~lu}fnt dblt~on hfgh kob~lut b` nln}gv kle }ntb~}dnt e~n ub
uhnf} dblu}bi b` `b}nfgl }ntb~}dnt) whfdh kitb s}npnlut sn}fshn}ki db~lu}fnt `}bo
enpnibsflg kle dblt~oflg uhnf} bwl lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt, (G}nnl ;;
K uhf}e k}nk eftd~ttne mv G}nnl ft uhku b` uhn ndbibgv uhnb}v, Uhn mktfd dbldnsu b`
h~oklt mnflg fldkskmin b` nxunleflg mnvble uhn mktfd ifofu b` uhn lku~}ki wb}ie ft k dboobl
ikw uhku mflet kii db~lu}fnt kle gbpn}lonlut, Uhn }nkeflntt kle kpkfikmfifuv b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt
wfuhfl k db~lu}v wfii ~iufokuniv enun}ofln uhku db~lu}vt {~klufuv b` kpkfikmin ebontufd
dblt~osufbl, Kt G}nnl mikljiv s~ut fu) K db~lu}v wfuh ik}gn {~klufufnt b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt okv
dblt~on ob}n b` uhno mndk~tn b` uhnf} }nkev kpkfikmfifuv, (G}nnl ;= O~dh ifjn uhn ^lfune
Tukunt) whb kitb flun}ntuflgiv nlb~gh mndk~tn b` ubsbg}kshv kle gnbg}kshfdki tu}~du~}n
dblt~ont ob}n e~n ub g}nkun} u}kltsb}ukufbl eftukldnt, (G}nnl ;=
Uhn `fleflgt b` uhft sksn} t~ssb}u uhft uhnb}v, Eft}ngk}eflg kii buhn} pk}fkmint fl uhn
iflnk} efg}nttfbl) dbosk}flg }kleboiv dhbtnl db~lu}fnt) s}ntnldn b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt wfuhfl k
db~lu}vt mb~lek}fnt wkt uhn s}fok}v fl`i~nlufki `kdub} b` k db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub fosb}u `b}nfgl
nln}gv) `b}gbflg s}be~dufbl b` }nlnwkmin nln}gv }ntb~}dnt, Uhn s}ntnldn b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt
kmbpn kii nitn) hnldn sk}uln}flg dbo`b}ukmiv wfuh uhn ndbibgv uhnb}v) `~}uhn} tu}nlguhnlt uhn
dbldnsu b` k db~lu}v mnflg fldkskmin b` g}bwflg b~utfen b` fut lku~}ki nlebwonlu, Uhn intt
lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt ibdkune wfuhfl k db~lu}v) uhn ob}n ifjniv uhn db~lu}v wfii dhbbtn ub fosb}u kle
u}ken `b}nfgl nln}gv, Uhft ft uhn jnv ninonlu kle k}g~onlu b` uhn ndbibgv uhnb}v) kl k}nk uhku
G}nnl `~iiv kdjlbwinegnt,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;0
Uhn `flki k}nk uhku G}nnl nxsikflt ft uhn uhnb}v b` sbifufdt) undhlbibgv) kle }ngfblki
ef``n}nldnt kt k `kdub} b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Uhft uhnb}v }nikunt `~iiv ub uhn s}npfb~t eftd~ttfbl
bl ensnlenldv) hbwnpn} ob}n dibtniv }nikunt ub uhn fldi~tfbl b` uhn onkt~}n b` enobd}kdv fl uhn
iflnk} }ng}nttfbl klkivtft ~len}ukjnl fl uhft sksn}, G}nnl tukunt uhku)
Enobd}kufd tukunt wfuh `}nn ok}jnu ndblbofnt unle ub mn ob}n nln}gv n``fdfnlu
bpn}kii) m~u tufii dblt~on k }nikufpniv hfgh kob~lu b` nln}gv e~n ub hfghn} inpnit
b` sn}tblki wnkiuh Uhft okv nxunle ub nln}gv dblt~osufbl whn}n enobd}kdv
nldb~}kgnt g}nkun} dblt~osufbl lnu b` enpnibsonlu kle sn}tblki wnkiuh,
(G}nnl ;=
Dbltfen}flg G}nnlt bmtn}pkufbl b` uhn }bin b` fld}nktne enobd}kdv fl k db~lu}v) fu wb~ie mn
db}}ndu ub ktt~on uhku enobd}kdv inpnit fl k db~lu}v wb~ie hkpn k ef}ndu n``ndu fl nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl: hbwnpn} uhku wkt s}bpne flkdd~}kun fl uhn eftd~ttne klkivtft kt F wfii eftd~tt,
Kiuhb~gh nln}gv dblt~osufbl okv mn ob}n n``fdfnlu) hfghiv enobd}kufd db~lu}fnt tufii `~ldufbl
~len} uhn tkon ikw b` nlebwonlu s}npfb~tiv eftd~ttne,
G}nnl eftd~ttnt fl inlguh uhn sbttfmfifuv b` }ngfblki ef``n}nldnt hkpflg kl n``ndu bl whku
hn entd}fmnt kt k d~iu~}n b` dblt~osufbl, Uhft uhnb}v) whfdh ft dhk}kdun}fqne mv gnln}kiiv
hfgh inpnit b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl lnu b` enpnibsonlu inpni (G}nnl ;4 t~ggntut uhku uhn ob}n
enpnibsne k db~lu}v ft) uhn ob}n wnkiuhv kle kmin ft uhn gnln}ki sbs~ikufbl fl kd{~f}flg sn}tblki
sbttnttfblt b` endnlu dksfuki) uhn g}nkun} uhn nln}gv dblt~osufbl wfii mn, Fl uhft sksn}) uhft
`kdub} fenluf`fne mv G}nnl ft dblu}biine `b} mv uhn fldi~tfbl b` GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk, Fl k
d~iu~}n whfdh `~ldufblt ub eftsikv tuku~t) b} uh}b~gh tbdfki lb}ot ft }n{~f}ne ub sbttntt dn}ukfl
mktfd funot wfuhfl k tbdfnuv kitb k``ndut k db~lu}vt ubuki lnu nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Uhntn funot
fldi~en nindu}blfd ubbit t~dh kt uninpftfblt) tun}nbt) dbos~un}t) kle dk}t) whfdh fl oklv }ngfblki
k}nkt b` uhn wb}ie k}n lbu lnk}iv kt s}npkinlu b} lndnttk}v, Uvsfdki tbdfki lb}ot npnl fl ekfiv
uktjt t~dh kt ik~le}v kle hnkuflg }bbot wfuhfl k hbon kitb ef}nduiv k``ndu k db~lu}vt ubuki inpni
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;7
b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl) whfdh fl u~}l hkt k ef}ndu n``ndu bl lkufblki nln}gv fosb}ukufbl kle
ebontufd s}be~dufbl,
Uhn fosb}uklu dbldnsut ub gkfl `}bo G}nnlt `bd~t fl hft sksn} k}n uhn oklv pk}fkmint
whfdh ef}nduiv k``ndu k db~lu}vt nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Buhn} pk}fkmint) fl keefufbl ub wnkiuh)
fldi~eflg gbpn}lkldn) d~iu~}ki lb}ot) }ngfblki ef``n}nldnt) kle undhlbibgfdki kepkldnonlu hkpn
k ef}ndu n``ndu bl k d~iu~}nt ubuki dblt~osufbl }kun, Jnnsflg G}nnlt }ntnk}dh fl ofle b` uhft
sksn}) uhn }nt~iut `}bo ov d}btt/lkufblki tukuftufdki klkivtft k}n tu}fduiv mktne bl uhn pk}fkmint
fldi~ene) kle eb lbu dbltfen} klv b` uhn pk}fkmint whfdh G}nnl `flet ub mn ef}nduiv }nikuflg ub
nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Uhft tu~ev kfot ub eftdbpn} k tfofik} pk}fkmin whfdh ef}nduiv fl`i~nldnt uhn
tnindune db~lu}fnt nln}gv u}ken endftfblt) dbltfen}flg uhn fl`i~nldflg `kdub}t whfdh k}n
Klbuhn} k}ufdin dbltfen}ne mbuh nlifghunlflg kle fii~oflkuflg fl uhn eftd~ttfbl b`
flun}lkufblki u}ken fl nln}gv ft w}fuunl mv Ofdhkni K, Inpf) Nln}gv Tnd~}fuv1 Kl Kgnlek `b}
]ntnk}dh, Inpf kss}bkdhnt nln}gv s}be~dufbl) kuukflonlu) kle dblt~osufbl `}bo uhn
sn}tsndufpn b` lkufblki tnd~}fuv, Inpf `bd~tnt sk}ufd~ik}iv bl uhn ubsfd b` bfi fosb}ukufbl kle
dblt~osufbl kt uhn inke nln}gv tb~}dn) ntsndfkiiv fl uhn dktn b` uhn ^lfune Tukunt, Inpft sksn}
ft }ninpklu ub uhft tu~ev kt hn tsndf`fdkiiv kttnttnt uhn ef}ndu n``ndut b` `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl
kt k lngkufpn fl`i~nldflg `kdub} bl uhn ^T ndblbov) t~ggntuflg uhku whfin bfi fosb}ut
dblu}fm~un t~mtuklufkiiv ub uhn ^T u}ken en`fdfu (Inpf =) uhn db~lu}v dblufl~nt ub fosb}u,
Whfin uhn ^T hkt oken tfglf`fdklu gkflt fl s}bunduflg futni` `}bo p~iln}kmfifuv ub u}ken
flun}}~sufblt kt dbosk}ne ub `b~} endkent kgb) uhn}n dblufl~n ub mn uwb tsndf`fd nxdnsufblt
whfdh inke ub t~mtuklufki tnd~}fuv dbltn{~nldnt, Uhn `f}tu nxdnsufbl ft uhku b` uhn }nikufblthfs
mnuwnnl bfi thbdjt kle }ndnttfblt, ]ndnttfblt dkl inke ub {~kifukufpn dhklgnt fl ^T sbifdv
s}fb}fufnt kle tfglf`fdkluiv }ne~dn dkskdfuv `b} gbpn}lonlu tsnleflg) (Inpf 5, Uhft fosifnt k
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;8
t~mtuklufki tnd~}fuv dbltn{~nldn `b} uhn ^T, ^len}tukleflg hbw bfi thbdjt inke ~s ub }ndnttfblt
wb~ie mn `~}uhn} ~tn`~i fl`b}okufbl fl whku Inpf dikfot wb~ie mn mnln`fdfki fl `~u~}n u}ken
sbifdfnt,
Uhn tndble nxdnsufbl whfdh Inpf fenluf`fnt ft }nikune ef}nduiv ub uhn ^T mkikldn b` u}ken)
kt ft uhn dktn uhku bfi fosb}ut dblu}fm~un t~mtuklufkiiv ub uhn ^T u}ken en`fdfu, (Inpf = Kt
wfulnttne fl =3;;) uhn ^T en`fdfu hkt mndbon tbonwhku b` kl ~loklkgnkmin s}bandu) sbtflg
ibboflg lkufblki tnd~}fuv p~iln}kmfifuv, Inpf sbtnt uhn db~lun} k}g~onlu uhku s}bdnnet `}bo
tkint b` bfi ub uhn ^T ~iufokuniv }ndvdin mkdj flub uhn ^T ndblbov) fl uhn `b}o b` nfuhn}
s~}dhktnt b` ^T gbbet kle tn}pfdnt) s~}dhktnt b` ^T enmu) b} s~}dhktnt b` ^T kttnut, Hbwnpn})
fu ft ef``fd~iu ub `~iiv {~kluf`v nxkduiv hbw o~dh b` uhn oblnv tsnlu kdu~kiiv tufo~ikunt uhn
ndblbov, Uhft k}g~onlu }n{~f}nt `~}uhn} flpntufgkufbl kle dbosfiflg b` ekuk) s}be~dflg k }nt~iu
whfdh okv lbu mn g}nnune wfuh bsnl k}ot,
Inpf dblufl~nt fl hft nttkv fl eftd~ttflg ef``n}nlu oftdbldnsufblt b` bfi }npnl~nt) lbu
a~tu `b} uhn tukunt whfdh dblt~on fosb}une bfi kt nln}gv) m~u kitb `b} uhn tukunt whfdh s}be~dn fu
kt wnii, Hn tukunt) Bfi }npnl~nt dkl nfuhn} tu}nlguhnl b} wnkjnl bfi s}be~dn}t, Uhnv kitb hkpn
uhn sbunlufki ub }nb}en} sbifufdki }nikufblthfst k}b~le uhn wb}ie, (Inpf 5& Whfin Inpft
bmtn}pkufblt kifgl {~fun dink}iv wfuh G}nnlt nttkv bl uhn ef``n}nlu pk}fkmint whfdh k``ndu
flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken) Inpf eftd~ttnt ku inlguh uhn fosb}ukldn kle }ntsbltn ub enokle b`
nln}gv) tsndf`fdkiiv uhku b` uhn ^lfune Tukunt, Inpf noshktfqnt uhku tnd~}fuv dbltn{~nldnt dkl mn
}ne~dne uh}b~gh oben}kuflg ^T enokle) tsndf`fdkiiv fl k}nkt b` bfi dblt~osufbl, @nk}t b` ^T
enokle `b} lku~}ki gkt k}n inttnlne kt k }nt~iu b` thkin gkt enpnibsonlut) kle tb Inpf fltunke
eftd~ttnt uhn dbtut kle mnln`fut b` }ne~dufbl b` dblt~osufbl,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
;6
Dbtut kle mnln`fut k}n uhn jnv unlklut fl Inpft eftd~ttfbl b` nln}gv dblt~osufbl, Kl
nxkosin wb~ie mn uhku b` nln}gv n``fdfnldv) whn}n oftkifglne fldnlufpnt dblufl~b~tiv eftdb~lu
uhn mnln`fu b` `~u~}n nln}gv tkpflgt uhku dkl }nt~iu `}bo nln}gv/n``fdfnlu n{~fsonlu, Wfuh uhn
s}ntnldn b` }nikufpniv dhnks kle kddnttfmin lbl/}nlnwkmin nln}gv t~ssifnt) uhn}n ft ifuuin ub lb
fldnlufpn fl a~osflg flub uhn ~ljlbwl kle lnwiv }ntnk}dhne k}nk b` nln}gv/n``fdfnldv, F` nln}gv
n``fdfnlu onkt~}nt u}~iv eb hkpn lngkufpn ndblbofd dbtut) Inpf k}g~nt uhku uhft wb~ie fl u~}l
inke ub kl fld}nktn fl ndblbofd kdufpfuv) }nt~iuflg fl kl n}kt~}n b` uhn }ne~dufblt fl nln}gv ~tn,
(Inpf ;5
Inpf gbnt blub eftd~tt pk}fb~t }ngfblki kle ndblbofd ok}jnut `b} uhn s}bobufbl b` kl
flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken) hbwnpn} hft okfl sbflu hbiet uh}b~ghb~u hft sksn}1 ~len}tukleflg uhn
ndblbofd mnln`fut kle dbtut b` u}ken fl nln}gv) tsndf`fdkiiv uhku b` bfi kle lku~}ki gkt) ft lbu pn}v
wnii }ntnk}dhne) ub uhn sbflu b` kiobtu mnflg oft~len}tubbe, Uhn dbtut kle mnln`fut kttbdfkune
wfuh fosb}ukufbl b` nln}gv }ntb~}dnt lnne ub mn `~}uhn} }ntnk}dhne) dbltfen}flg uhn n``ndut whfdh
nln}gv/n``fdfnlu undhlbibgv okv hkpn bl ok}jnut, K dbosinun ~len}tukleflg kle jlbwinegn
lnnet ub mn s}ntnlu kle mn }n`indune fl s~mifd sbifdv }ngk}eflg nln}gv bmukflonlu) ob}n tb)
nln}gv tnd~}fuv kle ensinufbl b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt dkllbu mn efpb}dne kle lnne ub mn hkleine
t~ddflduiv, Fl }nikufbl ub uhft klkivtft) Inpft jnv sbflut tukun uhku enokle `b} nln}gv bpn}}fent
mbuh ndblbofd kle sbifufdki mnln`fu, Kt k }nt~iu) s}be~dufbl kle fosb}ukufbl ft tu}fduiv e}fpnl mv
foonefkun enokle) wfuh intt }ngk}e ub kiun}lkufpn bsufblt `b} nln}gv s}be~dufbl, (Inpf ;7
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=3
]ntnk}dh Entfgl kle Ekuk
Ensnlenlu Pk}fkmin
Uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin nosibvne fl uhft }ntnk}dh sksn} ft uhn lnu kob~lu b` nln}gv
fosb}ut kt ksn}dnlukgn b` k db~lu}vt ubuki GES) gkuhn}ne `}bo uhn Wb}ie Mklj ekuk tnu, Uhn
dhbfdn ub fosb}u b} nxsb}u fl u}ken ft k dbldnsu uhku tdhbik}t onkt~}n mv kttnttflg nln}gv u}ken
kt k okuun} b` tnd~}fuv, Ef``n}nlu tb~}dnt b` nln}gv s}bpfen k ef``n}nlu inpni b` tnd~}fuv)
ensnleflg bl whnuhn} b} lbu uhn nln}gv ft s}be~dne ebontufdkiiv b} fosb}une) uhn lku~}ki inpni
b` nlebwonlu wfuhfl uhn }ngfbl `}bo whfdh nln}gv ft nfuhn} s}be~dne b} fosb}une `}bo)
dbltfen}kufbl b` sbifufdki difokun wfuhfl uhn }ngfbl `}bo whfdh nln}gv ft fosb}une `}bo) kt wnii
kt bpn}kii ndblbofd kle sbifufdki tukmfifuv b` uhn fosb}uflg db~lu}v, Dhbbtflg nln}gv fosb}ut kt
k lnu sn}dnlu b` ubuki ~tn kitb s}bpfene uhn mnln`fu b` vfnieflg uhn obtu dbosinun }nt~iut) k `kdub}
kmtbi~univ pfuki fl k tukuftufdki klkivtft ub kdhfnpn uhn obtu dbldftn kle d}nefmin }nt~iut,
Klkivqflg `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl }kuhn} uhkl ebontufd nln}gv s}be~dufbl kttftut fl
uhn dblpn}tkufbl b` whku k``ndut nln}gv s}be~dufbl) ub whfdh uhn dhbfdn b` fosb}uflg }kuhn} uhkl
ebontufd s}be~dufbl ft k jnv {~ntufbl, Uhft tu~ev kfot ub nxskle bl ef``n}nlu k}nkt b` k
db~lu}vt ndblbofd kle sbifufdki tu}~du~}nt ub fenluf`v whfdh ktsndut ef}nduiv k``ndu nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl, Whfin onkt~}flg ebontufdkiiv s}be~dne nln}gv wb~ie kitb s}bpfen kl
~len}tukleflg `b} k db~lu}vt dhbfdn fl nln}gv u}ken) uhn g}nkun} flun}ntu }ntfent fl uhn dhbfdn b`
fosb}ukufbl bpn} s}be~dufbl, S~}t~flg uhn kltwn} ub uhn {~ntufbl b` u}ken bpn} ebontufd
s}be~dufbl dkl nxsikfl u}ken/b``t fl ndblbofd kle sbifufdki kmfifuv fl dhbbtflg ub bmukfl nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt `}bo `b}nfgl db~lun}sk}ut) kle ub whku nxunlu uhntn u}ken/b``t nxftu, Fenluf`vflg uhn
pk}fkmint whfdh enun}ofln whv db~lu}fnt dhbbtn ub fosb}u }kuhn} uhkl s}be~dn ft fosb}uklu fl
~len}tukleflg ok}jnu `~ldufbl kle tukun endftfbl okjflg, Whfin bln okv sbtu~ikun uhku nln}gv
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Understanding the Influencing Factors of the International Energy Trade Senior Honors Thesis 2012
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=;
u}ken ft k``ndune mv sbifufdki s}b`fiflg) b} uhn db~lu}vt ndblbofd tuku~t) uhft sksn} kfot ub
s}bpfen tukuftufdki ekuk ub kltwn} uhft {~ntufbl, K `~u~}n klkivtft uhku dkl mn dble~dune `}bo k
}npn}tn sn}tsndufpn) klkivqflg ebontufd s}be~dufbl b` nln}gv kt kl n``ndu b` uhn `fpn dhbtnl
flensnlenlu pk}fkmint iftune mnibw) hbwnpn} uhft wfii klkivqn k db~lu}vt ebontufd endftfblt)
}kuhn} uhkl ~len}tukleflg uhn df}d~otukldnt ~len} whfdh db~lu}vt endfen ub fosb}u,
Flensnlenlu Pk}fkmint
Kt uhn s~}sbtn b` uhft }ntnk}dh ft ub ~len}tukle whku ef}nduiv k``ndut k db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub
fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv) uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint `~ldufbl kt wkvt b` `bd~tflg nln}gv fosb}ut kt
k }nt~iu fl `fpn k}nkt b` klkivtft1 k db~lu}vt GLS (g}btt lkufblki s}be~du) k db~lu}vt GLS sn}
dksfuk) uhn db~lu}vt u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES (g}btt ebontufd s}be~du) lku~}ki nln}gv
}ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES) kle k db~lu}vt sbifuv FP onkt~}nonlu,
Dhbbtflg ub onkt~}n k db~lu}vt GLS wfii ef}ndu nln}gv fosb}ut kt mnflg kl n``ndu b` uhn
tfqn b` k db~lu}vt ndblbov) ukjflg flub kddb~lu fut ubuki ndblbofd s~}dhktflg sbwn} fl
flun}lkufblki u}ken, Fl dbosk}ftbl ub k db~lu}vt GES) GLS onkt~}nt uhn b~us~u mv k db~lu}vt
nlun}s}ftnt) }kuhn} uhkl onkt~}flg k db~lu}vt ubuki s}be~du s}be~dne wfuhfl uhn db~lu}vt
mb}en}t, Kt kl nxkosin) k db~lu}v t~dh kt uhn ^lfune Tukunt hkt k g}nku GLS mktne bl uhn
sn}`b}okldn b` Kon}fdkl/bwlne `f}ot) kle uhn pki~n b` uhn b~us~u uhku ft s}be~dne mv uhno)
whfdh, Uhft s}bpnt ub mn `k} ob}n }nikune ub nln}gv u}ken kle sbunlufki fosb}ut }kuhn} uhkl GES
kt k db~lu}vt ubuki kmfifuv ub s~}dhktn kle fosb}u ft ef}nduiv ifljne ub k db~lu}vt ubuki ndblbofd
sbwn} gnln}kune mv k db~lu}vt nlun}s}ftnt }kuhn} uhkl uhn ubuki s}be~du s}be~dne wfuhfl k
db~lu}vt ndblbov, Nttnlufkiiv) GLS ft fosb}uklu ub onkt~}n uhn tfqn b` k db~lu}vt ndblbov, F`
k db~lu}v hkt k tokii ndblbov) fu sbunlufkiiv ebnt lbu hkpn uhn kmfifuv ub flun}lkufblki u}ken ub
s~}dhktn }n{~f}ne nln}gv t~ssiv kle okv hkpn k hfghn} unlenldv b` s}be~dflg fut bwl nln}gv,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
==
Kt nxsikflne mv G}nnl) onkt~}flg k db~lu}vt GLS sn} dksfuk) dibtniv }nikune ub GLS) ft
kitb kl fosb}uklu pk}fkmin ub ukjn flub dbltfen}kufbl whnl klkivqflg k db~lu}vt wfiiflglntt ub
fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv tb~}dnt, K db~lu}vt GLS sn} dksfuk ef}nduiv onkt~}nt uhn nxunlu ub whfdh
flefpfe~ki db~lu}fnt k}n wnkiuhv, GLS sn} dksfuk ft kmin ub enun}ofln k db~lu}vt s~}dhktflg
sbwn}) hnldn whnuhn} fosb}ukufbl b` `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt wb~ie mn ob}n ndblbofdkiiv
n``fdfnlu) ensnleflg f` nln}gv ft dhnksn} km}bke }kuhn} uhkl s}be~dflg `}bo ebontufdkiiv, GLS
sn} dksfuk dkl kitb enun}ofln k db~lu}vt kmfifuv ub s}be~dn fut bwl nln}gv) t~dh kt k db~lu}vt
kmfifuv ub s}be~dn fut bwl l~dink} sbwn}, Fl nttnldn) uhn hfghn} k db~lu}vt GLS sn} dksfuk) b}
ubuki wnkiuh) uhn ob}n bsufblt uhn db~lu}v hkt fl un}ot b` ndblbofd dhbfdnt) t~dh kt u}ken, Uhn
ob}n u}ken k db~lu}v nlgkgnt fl) uhn ob}n fosb}ukufbl) whfdh inket ub uhn kmfifuv ub hkpn hfghn}
nln}gv fosb}ukufbl bpn} ebontufd s}be~dufbl,
Dhbbtflg ub fldi~en k db~lu}vt u}ken kt k ubuki sn}dnlukgn b` fut GES (g}btt ebontufd
s}be~du) ft k ef}nduiv fosb}uklu iflj fl klkivqflg uhn }bin b` `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ut kt uhn ubuki
sn}dnlukgn b` k db~lu}vt u}ken, Mv ki}nkev `bd~tflg bl db~lu}vt ubuki s~}dhktflg sbwn} uh}b~gh
dhbbtflg ub fldi~en k db~lu}vt GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk onkt~}nonlut) dhbbtflg uhn
flensnlenlu pk}fkmin b` u}ken lk}}bwt ebwl uhn `bd~t b` klkivqflg k db~lu}vt ndblbov }kuhn}
uhkl `}bo k `bd~t bl ubuki s}be~dufbl) ub k tu}fdu `bd~t bl uhn db~lu}vt ubuki u}ken kt mnflg kl
fl`i~nlufki `kdub} b` GES, Uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin b` nln}gv fosb}ut e}kwt npnl ob}n kuunlufbl
ub uhn sk}ufd~ik} k}nk b` u}ken uhku uhft sksn} ft ibbjflg ub `bd~t bl, Whfin GLS kle GLS sn}
dksfuk untuf`v kt ub hbw o~dh k db~lu}v dkl s}be~dn mktne bl uhn db~lu}vt ubuki wnkiuh kle tfqn)
fu ft fosb}uklu ub thbw hbw ik}gn k }bin u}ken sikvt fl k db~lu}vt ndblbofd dhbfdnt, F` k db~lu}v
ebnt lbu sk}ufdfskun hnkpfiv fl u}ken) uhnl `fleflg uhn s}ntnldn b` nln}gv fosb}ut kt k sn}dnlukgn
b` k db~lu}vt GES wfii hkpn k ibwn} s}bmkmfifuv,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=4
K `flki kle hfghiv fosb}uklu `kdub} ub dbltfen} whnl klkivqflg k db~lu}vt nlgkgnonlu
fl nln}gv u}ken) mnk}flg fl ofle wfiiflglntt kle kmfifuv ub s~}t~n flun}lkufblki u}kltkdufblt mktne
bl ubuki ndblbofd wnkiuh) tfqn) kle ubuki u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES) ft ubuki lku~}ki }ntb~}dn
nlebwonlu, F` k db~lu}v hkt k hfgh inpni b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt kpkfikmin ub fu `b} nln}gv
s}be~dufbl) uhn {~ntufbl tuklet whnuhn} uhn db~lu}v wfii tufii dbltfen} fosb}uflg `}bo `b}nfgl
s}bpfen}t, Uhft sksn} tnnjt ub fenluf`v uhft endftfbl) whnuhn} b} lbu k db~lu}v endfent ub `b}gb
ebontufd s}be~dufbl whfdh ft kdhfnpkmin) kle fl `kdu dblufl~n ub fosb}u, Uhn endftfbl ub fosb}u
`b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) npnl f` fenluf`fne) ft ef``fd~iu ub nxsikfl fl }ngk}et ub k db~lu}vt
flefpfe~ki dhbfdn, Kt db~lu}fnt hkpn tsndf`fd sbifufdki kle flun}lkufblki }nikufblthfst wfuh bln
klbuhn}) fu ft ef``fd~iu ub dbltfen} k db~lu}vt tsndf`fd dhbfdnt ub fosb}u mktne bl `kdub}t b~utfen
b` ndblbofd fldnlufpnt,
Uhn obtu n``ndufpn wkv ub klkivqn k db~lu}vt ubuki lku~}ki }ntb~}dn nlebwonlu wb~ie
mn ub gkuhn} ekuk mktne bl k db~lu}vt ubuki s}fok}v nln}gv t~ssiv, Uhft ekuk ft obtu kdd~}kuniv
s~mifthne uh}b~gh uhn ^lfune Tukunt Nln}gv Fl`b}okufbl Keoflftu}kufbl whfdh }ng~ik}iv }nsb}ut
wb}ie dblt~osufbl `b} obtu uvsnt b` s}fok}v nln}gv }ntb~}dnt: hbwnpn} F endfene uhku `b} uhn
s~}sbtnt b` uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft) kl kiun}lkufpn ekuk tnu wb~ie mn ob}n kss}bs}fkun fl
onkt~}flg whku k``ndut k db~lu}vt dhbfdn b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl, Dbiinduflg `}bo Uhn Wb}ie
Mklj Ekuk tnu) whfdh s}bpfent k onkt~}nonlu b` uhn ubuki lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt }nlut kt sn}dnlukgn
b` GES) F dhbtn ub ~ufifqn uhft ekuk }kuhn} uhkl k dbosinun onkt~}nonlu b` ubuki s}fok}v nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt, Dhbbtflg ub `bd~t bl uhn }nlu pki~n b` k db~lu}vt lku~}ki }ntb~}dn t~ssiv ft ob}n
kssifdkmin fl uhn klkivtft b` sn}dnlukgn b` nln}gv fosb}ut kt sk}u b` GES) kt }nlu ft onkt~}ne kt
k t~}si~t pki~n k`un} uhn dbtut b` uhn s}be~du k}n kddb~lune `b}) t~dh kt uhn s}fdn ku whfdh uhn
b~us~u dkl mn tbie `b}) kle uhn }ntsndufpn dbtu b` uhn nxu}kdufbl kle s}be~dufbl b` uhn lku~}ki
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=5
nln}gv }ntb~}dn, @bd~tflg bl uhn }nlu pki~n b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt ukjnt flub dbltfen}kufbl uhn
db~lu}vt `flkldfki kmfifuv ub s}be~dn fut bwl lku~}ki nln}gv fl dbosk}ftbl ub fosb}uflg `}bo k
`b}nfgl tb~}dn, Uhn ekuk gfpnl mv Uhn Wb}ie Mklj dbltfen}t ofln}ki }nlut kle `b}ntu }nlut fl fut
ubuki lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlu sn}dnlukgn) kt wnii kt dbki) lku~}ki gkt) kle bfi) hnldn F oklfs~ikune
uhn ekuk mv ukjn uhn t~o b` bliv dbki) lku~}ki gkt) kle bfi }nlut kt uhnv k}n uhn ubs uh}nn lku~}ki
nln}gv sbwn} tb~}dnt `b} db~lu}fnt flun}lkufblkiiv, Uhft lnw ubuki lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt }nlut kt
sn}dnlukgn b` GES ukjnt flub dbltfen}kufbl bliv uhn lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt uhku k}n kpkfikmin `b}
s}be~dufbl b` nln}gv) kle ~lifjn uhn ^T NFK onkt~}nonlu whfdh kddb~lut `b} bfi) dbki) gkt)
}nlnwkmin `b}ot b` nln}gv) l~dink}) kle buhn} `b}ot b` nln}gv) ~ufifqflg uhn lnw ubuki `b} lku~}ki
}ntb~}dn }nlut ft mnln`fdfki fl `bd~tflg bliv bl lku~}ki `b}ot b` nln}gv uhku dkl mn `b~le wfuhfl
k db~lu}v }kuhn} uhkl kitb onkt~}flg `b}ot b` nln}gv uhku dkl mn s}be~dne wfuhfl k db~lu}v,
Uhn `flki flensnlenlu pk}fkmin uhku wkt dhbtnl `b} uhft tukuftufdki d}btt/lkufblki klkivtft
ft uhn `fleflgt b` uhn sbifuv FP tu~ev, Uhn Sbifuv FP tu~ev ft uhn ikuntu pn}tfbl b` uhn sbifuv ekuk
tn}fnt) whfdh s}bpfent dbene kll~ki fl`b}okufbl bl }ngfon k~uhb}fuv dhk}kdun}ftufdt kt wnii kt
u}kltfufblt `b} flensnlenlu tukunt, Uhn tu~ev fldi~ent db~lu}fnt f` uhnv hkpn k sbs~ikufbl b`
g}nkun} uhkl >33)333 fl ubuki) kle dbpn}t uhn vnk}t ;833/=3;3, Uhn tu~enlu nxkoflnt uhn tukunt
inpnit b` enobd}kdv mktne bl npki~kufblt b` uhn tukun fl {~ntufblt nindufblt `b} dbosnufufpnlntt)
bsnllntt) kle inpni b` sk}ufdfskufbl, Mktne bl k =; sbflu tdkin }klgflg `}bo /;3 kt k efdukub}thfs)
ub k *;3 kt k dbltbifekune enobd}kdv) uhn sbifuv tdhnon dbltftut b` tfx dbosblnlu onkt~}nt uhku
}ndb}e jnv {~kifufnt b` nxnd~ufpn }nd}~fuonlu) dbltu}kflut bl nxnd~ufpn k~uhb}fuv) kle sbifufdki
dbosnufufbl, Uhn ekuk bliv fldi~ent fl`b}okufbl bl uhn fltufu~ufblt b` uhn dnlu}ki gbpn}lonlu) kt
wnii kt uhn sbifufdki g}b~st kduflg) b} }nkduflg) wfuhfl uhn tdbsn b` uhku k~uhb}fuv, Uhn Sbifuv FP
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=>
ekuk hkt mnnl wfeniv ~tne ub onkt~}n kle tu~ev uhn inpni b` enobd}kdv kle k~ubd}kdv) kle wfii
mn k `~lekonluki onkt~}n b` sbifufdki en`flfufbl `b} nkdh db~lu}v dhbtnl fl uhft tu~ev,
^ufifqflg uhn Sbifuv FP ekuk fl uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft s}bpnt ub mn mnln`fdfki kle
fosb}uklu fl tnpn}ki wkvt fl uhn s}bdntt b` d}nkuflg kle lk}}bwflg uhn }ntnk}dh entfgl, Kt
entd}fmne mn`b}n fl uhn nxsiklkufbl b` uhn dhbfdn b` ~tflg lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut kt kl fosb}uklu
`kdub} fl kee}nttflg uhn tfglf`fdklu ef``n}nldnt b` db~lu}fnt ~lf{~n ndblbofd kle sbifufdki
tfu~kufblt) hfghifghuflg uhn Sbifuv FP ekuk fl uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft hnist ub kddb~lu `b} uhn tkon
}nktblt, K db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub flpbipn futni` fl u}ken ft uhn s}be~du b` o~iufsin `kdub}t) fldi~eflg
ndblbofd tukmfifuv kle fl`i~nldn) k db~lu}vt s}be~dufbl dkskdfuv) kt wnii kt uhn db~lu}vt
gbpn}lonlu tu}~du~}n, K gbpn}lonlut `b}nfgl sbifdv wfii ef}nduiv k`ndu hbw o~dh kle wfuh
whbo flun}lkufblki u}ken wfii enpnibs) kle hbw flun}lkufblki k``kf}t wfii mn hkleine, Mv
fldi~eflg uhn Sbifuv FP flenx wfuhfl uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft) uhft flensnlenlu pk}fkmin s}bpfent
klbuhn} ktsndu b` uhn klkivtft uhku dkiit flub {~ntufbl whku k``ndut uhn fosb}u b` `b}nfgl nln}gv
t~ssiv, Fu ft ktt~one uhku uhn Sbifuv FP pk}fkmin wfii mn pn}v nxdi~tfpn ub uhn db~lu}v fl {~ntufbl
kle klkivtft) hbwnpn} fldi~eflg fu fl uhft s}bandu dkl sbunlufkiiv s}ntnlu k lnw efonltfbl b`
nln}gv u}ken lbu vnu nxsib}ne,
S}bandu Entfgl
Kt uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft dbosk}ne k ensnlenlu pk}fkmin kgkfltu `fpn flensnlenlu
pk}fkmint) b}gklfqne ub `fle uhn eftufldu db}}nikufbl mnuwnnl uhn uwb) uhft ekuk wkt s}bdnttne kt k
iflnk} }ng}nttfbl obeni ~tflg uhn TSTT tukuftufdki klkivtft s}bg}ko, Kt entd}fmne flEnsnlenlu
Pk}fkmin sb}ufbl b` uhft dhksun}) lnu nln}gv fosb}ut kt sn}dnlukgn b` GES wkt fls~uune kt uhn
ensnlenlu pk}fkmin `b} uhn }ng}nttfbl) kle wkt klkivqne ~len} uwb tnsk}kun untut wfuh uwb
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=0
ef``n}nlu dbomflkufblt b` uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint, Uhn untu wkt }~l ub s}bandu ubuki tfglf`fdkldn
kle db}}nikufbl mnuwnnl uhn `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint kle uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin,
Uhn unl db~lu}fnt dhbtnl wn}n tnindune }kleboiv uh}b~gh kl blifln db~lu}v gnln}kub} tb
kt ub lbu tjnw uhn ekuk b} dhbbtn db~lu}fnt uhku wb~ie s}bpfen k mfktne }nt~iu fl tfglf`fdkldn,
Uhn db~lu}fnt dhbtnl wn}n Klgbik) Kqn}mkfakl) Dhflk) Ntublfk) Fleblntfk) uhn Tibpkj ]ns~mifd)
U~}jnv) uhn ^j}kfln) uhn ^lfune Tukunt) kle Vnonl, Uhn}n wkt k dbltfen}kufbl ukjnl flub
kddb~lu `b} uhku b` ibtu b} ofttflg ekuk) onklflg f` k db~lu}v s}bpne ub sb}u}kv ofttflg b}
fldbosinun ekuk fl k okab}fuv sk}u `b} klv bln b` uhn flensnlenlu b} ensnlenlu pk}fkmint) uhn
db~lu}v wkt }nsikdne wfuh k lnwiv gnln}kune db~lu}v ub }nsikdn fu, Uhft kdufbl wkt ukjnl fl b}en}
ub g~k}klunn k ob}n dbosinun }nt~iu `b} uhn klkivtft) kt k ik}gn sfndn b` ofttflg ekuk wb~ie
flnpfukmiv s}bpfen k dbldi~tfbl whfdh ft lbu pfkmin, Uhn klkivtft wfii dbltbifekun ekuk bpn} uhn
db~}tn b` uwnluv vnk}t) mnuwnnl uhn vnk}t b` ;663 kle =3;3, Uhft uwnluv vnk} sn}fbe }ns}ntnlut
kl n}k b` fld}nktne u}ken kle gibmkifqkufbl) kt wnii kt ob}n dbosinun kle kddnttfmin ekuk ub
sn}ofu uhn tu~ev mnflg kt dbosinun kle uhb}b~gh kt sbttfmin,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=7
@fleflgt
Ukmin ;Sbifuv FP kle Nln}gv Fosb}ut Klkivtft
Dbn``fdfnlut
Nln}gv Fosb}ut
(Ensnlenlu
Tibsn Tuklek}e N}}b} Tfglf`fdkldn
sbifuv5 ;4,886 ;,6;; ,333
Dbltuklu /;30,00 ;4,=0= ,333
Obeni Tfglf`fdkldn1 3,333 (sbifuv5
Bmtn}pkufblt1 ;88
]/t{~k}n ,==3
Uhn `f}tu }ng}nttfbl klkivtft uhku wkt dble~dune `bd~tne bl uhn Sbifuv FP }nt~iut kt uhn
bliv flensnlenlu pk}fkmin uhku wb~ie k``ndu ubuki lnu nln}gv fosb}ut, Uhft bln pk}fkmin }ng}nttfbl
wkt dhbtnl ub mn dble~dune bl uhn mktft b` sbifufdt kle gbpn}lonlu tu}~du~}n kt mnflg bln b` uhn
pk}fkmint uhku hkt uhn sbunlufki b` mnflg obtu pk}fne kle ensnlenlu bl uhn db~lu}v mktne bl
`kdub}t b~utfen b` uhft tu~ev, Dhbbtflg ub fldi~en sbifufdki en`flfufbl wfuhfl uhft tu~ev ft obtuiv
fl sk}u ub kltwn} uhn {~ntufbl b` hbw }ninpklu ft sbifufdki tu}~du~}n kle eng}nn b` bsnllntt kt kl
n``ndu bl flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken sk}ufdfskufbl, Mv s}bdnneflg wfuh k }ng}nttfbl klkivtft b`
Sbifuv FP s}fb} ub dble~duflg kl klkivtft b` kii `fpn pk}fkmint kgkfltu uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin b`
nln}gv fosb}u) uhn }nt~iut wfii mn ob}n u}kltsk}nlu kt ub hbw o~dh gbpn}lkldn kdu~kiiv k``ndut
`b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ut,
Tnnl fl uhn ukmin kmbpn) uhn `f}tu sb}ufbl b` uhn }nt~iut ub dbltfen} ft tnnl kt mv uhn tibsn
b` uhn Sbifuv FP }nt~iut) uhku mnflg ;4,886) onklflg uhku kl fld}nktn b` bln ~lfu b` enobd}kdv
onklt uhku nln}gv fosb}ut fld}nktn mv ;4,886., Whfin dbldnsu~kiiv uhft onklt uhku wfuh uhn
fld}nktn kle obpnonlu ubwk}et enobd}kdv) uhn}n ft kl fld}nktn b` `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl mv
;4,886.) uhn tfglf`fdkldn `b} uhft ekuk ft {~ntufblkmin, K}g~kmiv) f` klv tibsn b` k iflnk} `~ldufbl
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=8
ft qn}b) onklflg uhn}n ft lb }nikufblthfs mnuwnnl uhn flensnlenlu kle ensnlenlu pk}fkmint) npnl
uhn tifghuntu ;. fld}nktn wb~ie t~ggntu k db}}nikufbl,
Onkt~}flg kle kltwn}flg uhn {~ntufbl b` hbw o~dh ebnt sbifuv5 u}~iv okuun}) uhn
}ng}nttfbl untu ft lbu uhn tkon kt tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn, Fltunke) uhn Tfg) b} tfglf`fdkldn b` uhn
untu `b} uhku tibsn lnnet ub mn dbltfen}ne, Kt uhn Tfg ft }nsb}une kt mnflg ,333 flu~fufbl wb~ie
t~ggntu uhku uhn tibsn ft n{~ki ub qn}b) hbwnpn} uhft ft lbu tb, Uhn s}bmkmfifuv uhku uhn tibsn b` uhn
obeni ft n{~ki ub qn}b ft fld}nefmiv oflftd~in) b} intt uhkl ,333 endfoki sikdnt, Kt uhn
mnldhok}j `b} tfglf`fdkldn ft 6>.) klv tfglf`fdklu ekuk kmtbi~univ hkt ub mn mnibw ,3>) whfdh
uhn kmbpn ekuk t~ggntut uhku fu ft tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu,
Dbltfen}flg uhn KLBPK sb}ufbl b` uhn klkivtft) whfdh onkt~}nt kle untut uhn
tfglf`fdkldn `b} uhn obeni kt k whbin) wn kitb tnn uhku fu ft onkt~}ne ku k }kun b` ,333, Uhft
sb}ufbl b` uhn klkivtft onkt~}nt uhn s}bmkmfifuv b` kii dbn``fdfnlut mnflg n{~ki ub qn}b) kle kt uhn
}nt~iu ft intt uhkl ,3>) wn okv kddnsu uhft obeni kgkfl kt mnflg tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Hbwnpn})
uhn KLBPK sb}ufbl b` uhn obeni) o~dh ifjn uhn dbn``fdfnlut sb}ufbl b` uhn obeni) ebnt lbu
sb}u}kv uhn dbosinun tfglf`fdkldn b` Sbifuv FP fl }nikufbl ub nln}gv u}ken,
Uhn ] T{~k}ne onkt~}nt uhn kob~lu b` pk}fkufbl fl uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin uhku ft
nxsikflne mv uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmin: fl uhft dktn mnflg hbw o~dh b` nln}gv fosb}ut ft
nxsikflne mv uhn s}ntnldn b` k hfghn} inpni b` enobd}kdv wfuhfl k db~lu}v, Fl uhft dktn) wn k}n
kmin ub bmtn}pn uhku Sbifuv FP nxsikflt ==. b` uhn pk}fkmfifuv b` lnu nln}gv fosb}ut, Kiuhb~gh uhn
s}npfb~t }ntnk}dh) t~dh kt s~}t~ne mv G}nnl) t~ggntune uhku Sbifuv FP fl `kdu ebnt hkpn k
tfglf`fdklu fosb}ukldn fl uhn endftfbl b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) uhft lnw obeni whfdh fldb}sb}kunt
lnw pk}fkmint b` dbluflgnldv fl flun}lkufblki u}ken s}bpfent npfenldn b` k lnw dbldi~tfbl, Uhn
pk}fkmin b` Sbifuv FP hkt k ==. }nikufpn tfglf`fdkldn ub uhn fld}nktn b` nln}gv fosb}ut uhkl
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
=6
t~ggntune mv mbuh uhn KLBPK Tfglf`fdkldn tdb}n) kt wnii kt uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlut kle
Tfglf`fdkldn l~omn}t s}be~dne `}bo uhft tsndf`fd obeni,
@flkiiv) uhn dbltuklu pk}fkmin o~tu mn dbltfen}ne fl uhft klkivtft, Uhn dbltuklu pk}fkmin ft
k }ns}ntnlukufbl b` uhn inpni b` uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin whnl uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint (fl uhft
dktn) uhn tflgin pk}fkmin k}n n{~ki ub qn}b, Fl uhft dktn) uhn dbltuklu Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu ft /
;30,400) tfglf`vflg uhku whnl Sbifuv FP ft n{~ki ub qn}b) nln}gv fosb}ukufbl hkt k dbltuklu tibsn
b` /;30,400, Uhn tfglf`fdkldn b` uhn obeni ft kitb ku k }kun b` ,333 onklflg uhku uhn s}bmkmfifuv
b` uhn obeni b` mnflg n{~ki ub k tibsn b` qn}b ft pn}v ibw) b} dibtn ub lblnxftunlu) okjflg uhft
obeni tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Uhft dbltuklu lngkufpn tibsn b` /;30,400 ft {~fun ~l~t~ki,
Db~lu}fnt dkl hkpn lngkufpn tdb}nt) t~dh kt Tk~ef K}kmfk whfdh ft kl bfi nxsb}un}, Hbwnpn}) uhft
ebnt ~len}tdb}n uhn lnne `b} k }nklkivtft wfuh ob}n db~lu}fnt) kt F wfii eftd~tt ikun} fl ov
dbldi~tfbl, Kt uhft klkivtft dbltftut b` bliv ;3 db~lu}fnt) k tflgin fltukldn b` fld}nktne sbifufdki
dblu}bi dkl ~iufokuniv dhklgn uhn }nt~iut b` uhn s}bandu,
Ukjflg flub dbltfen}kufbl uhku uhft obeni kibln dblukflne bliv uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin
kle bln flensnlenlu pk}fkmin) fu ft }nktblkmin ub ktt~on uhku klv obeni uhku dblukflt bliv uhn
ensnlenlu pk}fkmin dhbtnl kle bln buhn} flensnlenlu pk}fkmin eftd~ttne s}npfb~tiv wfii s}ntnlu
k tfofik} dbldi~tfbl, Kiuhb~gh uhn}n wfii mn tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn) kt kii flensnlenlu pk}fkmint
dhbtnl `b} uhft klkivtft fl tbon wkv }nikun ub nln}gv fosb}ukufbl kle u}ken) uhnv wfii bliv unii
sk}u b` uhn tub}v b` whku uhn n``ndut b` uhntn `fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint u}~iv hkpn bl k db~lu}vt
endftfbl ub fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt, K lnw obeni o~tu mn enpnibsne ub fldb}sb}kun kii
`fpn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint kle uhn tflgin ensnlenlu pk}fkmin ub ~len}tukle uhn `~ii tfglf`fdkldn
b` nkdh flensnlenlu pk}fkmin kt uhnv flun}kdu wfuh uhn buhn}t dhbtnl,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
43
Ukmin =GLS sn} Dks) Sbifuv FP) U}ken kt k Sn}dnlukgn b` GES) & Lku~}ki Nln}gv
]ntb~}dn ]nlut kle Nln}gv Fosb}ut Klkivtft
Dbn``fdfnlut
Nln}gv Fosb}ut
(Ensnlenlu
Tibsn Tuklek}e N}}b} Tfglf`fdkldn
sbifuv5 ,4=3 ;,364 ,807GLS sn} Dks ,333 ,33; ,74>
U}ken kt . b` GES /,;3; ,=== ,056
Lku~}ki Nln}gv]ntb~}dn ]nlut kt . b`GES
/8,=>0 ,>8= ,333
Dbltuklu >=,34= =3,63; ,3;5
Obeni Tfglf`fdkldn1 ,333
Bmtn}pkufblt1 ;70
]/T{~k}n1 ,08;
K`un} dbltfen}flg uhn dibtn }nikufblthfs mnuwnnl GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk) F endfene ub
tsifu uhn `biibwflg tukuftufdki klkivtnt flub uhn uwb `biibwflg }ng}nttfblt) nkdh tnsk}kun bln
klkivqflg GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk flensnlenluiv, Kt nxsikflne fl uhn s}fb} tndufbl b` uhft
sksn}) GLS onkt~}nt uhn tfqn b` k db~lu}vt ndblbov: dblpn}tniv) GLS sn} dksfuk onkt~}nt k
db~lu}vt ubuki wnkiuh, Mv ftbikuflg GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk) fu wfii kiibw `b} k mnuun}
~len}tukleflg b` hbw nkdh k``ndut nln}gv fosb}ukufbl `b} uhn db~lu}fnt klkivqne, F` uhn klkivtft
wb~ie hkpn mnnl sn}`b}one wfuh GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk mniblgflg ub uhn tkon }ng}nttfbl)
uhnv wb~ie nkdh kddb~lu `b} k okab} sb}ufbl b` ndblbofd kdufpfuv, Uhft wb~ie mi~} kl k}nk b` uhn
flpntufgkufbl uhku db~ie sbunlufkiiv s}bpfen kl fosb}uklu nxsiklkufbl fl uhn tub}v b` nln}gv u}ken,
Dbltfen}flg Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu fl Ukmin =) whn}n GLS sn} dksfuk ft uhn pk}fkmin klkivqne)
uhn}n k}n tnpn}ki flun}ntuflg `kdub}t ub bmtn}pn, Kt eftd~ttne mn`b}n) uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu ft
flefdkufpn b` uhn tibsn b` uhn iflnk} }ng}nttfbl uhku ft s}be~dne fl uhft untu, Dble~duflg k o~iufsin
}ng}nttfbl klkivtft ft pn}v mnln`fdfki fl untuflg hvsbuhntnt hnke ub hnke, Whfin fl uhft tukuftufdki
klkivtft) Sbifuv FP ft sbtfufpn) fu ft lb iblgn} tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Uhft) wn k}n kmin ub pfnw fl
uhn }fghu hkle dbi~ol) whfdh nxsikflt uhn s}bmkmfifuv b` uhn tibsn mnflg n{~ki ub qn}b, Gfpnl uhku
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
4;
uhn tfglf`fdkldn inpni `b} Sbifuv FP ft ,807) uhft ft kl nxsiklkufbl uhku uhn}n ft kiobtu kl 87.
s}bmkmfifuv uhku uhn tibsn ft n{~ki ub qn}b, Fl buhn} wb}et) uhn pk}fkufbl b` k db~lu}vt inpni b`
enobd}kdv ebnt lbu k``ndu fut nln}gv fosb}ukufbl,
Fl }ngk}et ub uhn klkivtft ~len}ukjnl `b} Ukmin =) uhn buhn} uwb dbltuklut whfdh k}n lbu
`b~le ub mn tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) k}n GLS sn} dksfuk) kle u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES, GLS
sn} dksfuk hkt k tfglf`fdkldn inpni b` ,74>) onklflg uhku uhn}n ft kiobtu k 75. s}bmkmfifuv uhku uhn
tibsn ft n{~ki ub qn}b, U}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES hkt k tfglf`fdkldn inpni b` ,056) flefdkuflg
kl kiobtu 0>. s}bmkmfifuv uhku uhn tibsn ft n{~ki ub qn}b, Fl mbuh b` uhntn dktnt) uhn pk}fkufbl b` k
db~lu}vt ubuki wnkiuh) kle uhn sn}dnlukgn b` u}ken kt k sk}u b` GES) ebnt lbu k``ndu nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl b` uhn untune db~lu}fnt,
Sbifuv FP) kt fl uhn s}npfb~t klkivtft) hkt k sbtfufpn tibsn b` ,4=3) whfdh thbwt k g}nkun}
db}}nikufbl mnuwnnl nln}gv fosb}ut kle uhn sbifufdki okjn ~s b` k db~lu}v wfuh uhn s}ntnldn b`
GLS sn} dksfuk) u}ken kt k sn}dnlu b` GES kle lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut) fl dbosk}ftbl ub
uhn ;4,886 Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu bmtn}pne fl uhn `f}tu }ng}nttfbl, Wn kitb bmtn}pn uhku uhn}n ft k ,333
tibsn }nikuflg nln}gv fosb}ukufbl kle GLS sn} dksfuk) onklflg uhku uhn}n ft lb }nikufblthfs
mnuwnnl uhn uwb pk}fkmint, Lb fld}nktn fl uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmin hkt kl n``ndu bl uhn
ensnlenlu pk}fkmin, U}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES hkt k /,;3; tibsn }nikuflg ub nln}gv fosb}ut)
t~ggntuflg uhku wfuh uhn fld}nktn b` fosb}ukufbl) u}ken end}nktnt fl db}}nikufbl mv /,;3;, Lku~}ki
nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES kitb `kiit mv /8,=>0 wfuh uhn fld}nktn b` nln}gv
fosb}ut kt uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin, Uhft onklt uhku wfuh uhn end}nktn b` nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut)
hkt k lngkufpn n``ndu bl uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin,
U}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES kle lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt sn}dnlukgn b` GES)
hbwnpn}) s}ntnlu kl flun}ntuflg dhklgn fl uhn ekuk tnu, Mbuh nxs}ntt k lngkufpn tibsn) kle hnldn k
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
4=
lngkufpn db}}nikufbl ub nln}gv fosb}ut, U}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES s}ntnlut k /,;3; Tibsn
Dbn``fdfnlu whfin lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut kt sn}dnlukgn b` GES vfniet k /8,=>0 Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu,
Uhn db}}nikufbl mnuwnnl u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES kle nln}gv fosb}ukufbl hkt k pn}v tifghu
lngkufpn db}}nikufbl) t~ggntuflg uhku wfuh k end}nktn b` nln}gv fosb}ut) ubuki u}ken kt k
sn}dnlukgn b` GES endiflnt, Uhft kitb t~ggntut uhku kt lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut end}nktnt) nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl end}nktnt, Hbwnpn}) fu ft kitb fosb}uklu ub ukjn flub kddb~lu uhku u}ken kt k
sn}dnlukgn b` GES ft lbu tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) whfin lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut k}n s}bpnl ub mn
tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu,
Uhn lngkufpn db}}nikufbl mnuwnnl nln}gv u}ken kle lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn
b` GES dkl mn o~dh ob}n nktfiv nxsikflne) kle ft ob}n nxsndune ub hkpn k lngkufpn db}}nikufbl
}kuhn} uhkl k sbtfufpn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu kt ft `b~le fl uhn buhn} pk}fkmint, Kt lku~}ki nln}gv
}ntb~}dn }nlut end}nktn) nln}gv fosb}ut end}nktn) kt uhn endftfbl ub sbunlufkiiv s}be~dn
ebontufdkiiv wb~ie fld}nktn, F` k db~lu}v dhbbtnt ub }ne~dn fosb}ut b` b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt)
fl b}en} ub s}bpfen uhn tkon kob~lu b` nln}gv s}be~dufbl ebontufdkiiv) lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt wfii mn
~tne ku k ob}n }ksfe }kun) end}nktflg }nlut) hbwnpn} fld}nktflg ebontufd s}be~dufbl, Kl fld}nktn
fl nln}gv fosb}ut wb~ie t~mtufu~un `b} uhn lndnttfuv b` nxu}kduflg ebontufd nln}gv tb~}dnt) hnldn
lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut wb~ie fld}nktn fl dbosk}ftbl,
Klkivqflg uhn tfglf`fdkldn b` uhn dbn``fdfnlut kitb s}ntnlut kl flun}ntuflg tub}v, Uhn
}ng}nttfbl thbwt uhku Sbifuv FP wb~ie mn uhn inktu tfglf`fdklu sb}ufbl b` uhft klkivtft) `biibwne
mv GLS sn} dksfuk) kle `flkiiv u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES, Kii b` uhntn dbn``fdfnlut hkpn mnnl
onkt~}ne kt mnflg kmbpn ,3> tfglf`fdkldn onkt~}nonlu) whfin lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k
sn}dnlukgn b` GES wkt onkt~}ne ku ,333) onklflg uhku fu ft uhn bliv tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu
pk}fkmin fl uhft klkivtft, @b} uhn s~}sbtnt b` uhft sksn}) uhft onklt uhku uhn bliv pk}fkmin uhku
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
44
ef}nduiv k``ndut nln}gv u}ken ft lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES, Uhft ft
flun}s}nune kt) uhn g}nkun} uhn kob~lu b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt dble~dfmin `b} nln}gv wfuhfl k
db~lu}v) uhn intt nln}gv fosb}ukufbl wfii bdd~}, Uhn uvsn b` gbpn}lonlu) u}ken kt k ubuki
sn}dnlukgn b` GES) kle GLS sn} dksfuk) hkpn ifuuin ub lb foskdu bl k db~lu}vt endftfbl ub
fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv tb~}dnt,
Fl un}ot b` uhn bpn}kii tfglf`fdkldn b` uhn obeni) mktne bl uhn KLBPK tdb}n) uhn
}ng}nttfbl ft tufii hfghiv tfglf`fdklu wfuh k tdb}n b` ,333, Uhft onklt uhku uhn s}bmkmfifuv b` kii
dbn``fdfnlut mnflg n{~ki ub qn}b ft s}nuuv ibw) tufii okjflg uhft k gbbe obeni, Uhn bpn}kii obeni
`fu ft kee}nttne uh}b~gh uhn ] T{~k}ne) whfdh ft onkt~}ne ku ,08;) onklflg uhku uhft obeni
nxsikflt 08,;. b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl, Mnuwnnl kii `b~} b` uhn `kdub}t onkt~}ne fl uhft klkivtft)
uhn dbomflkufbl b` Sbifuv FP) GLS sn} dksfuk) U}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES) kle lku~}ki
}ntb~}dn }nlut kt sn}dnlukgn b` GES kddb~lut `b} 08,;. b` uhn kob~lu b` pk}fkufbl uhku nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl ft nxsikflne mv uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmint,
Klkivqflg uhn dbltuklu) whfdh kgkfl ft uhn inpni b` uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin) whnl kii
flensnlenlu pk}fkmint k}n qn}b) onklflg k qn}b enobd}kdv tdb}n) qn}b GLS kle u}ken, uhn
ensnlenlu pk}fkmin whnl kii flensnlenlu pk}fkmint k}n n{~ki ub qn}b) vfniet flun}ntuflg }nt~iut,
Uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu b` uhn dbltuklu ft }ndb}ene kt >=,34=) onklflg uhku uhn}n ft k sbtfufpn
db}}nikufbl dbltfen}flg nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) npnl f` kii buhn} pk}fkmint k}n hnie ku k dbltuklu qn}b,
Uhft dkl mn kuuntune ub uhn `kdu uhku f` kii flensnlenlu pk}fkmint k}n n{~kine ub qn}b) k db~lu}vt
ubuki nln}gv fosb}ukufbl wb~ie kmb~u bln hki` uhn tfqn b` uhn db~lu}vt GES, Uhn s}bmkmfifuv uhku
uhft obeni wb~ie mn n{~ki ub qn}b ft pn}v dibtn) wfuh tfglf`fdkldn onkt~}nonlu b` ,3;5) hbwnpn}
dkllbu mn dbltfen}ne tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Uhn tuklek}e n}}b} hbwnpn} ft uhn hfghntu b~u b`
klv buhn} pk}fkmint) snkjflg ku si~t b} ofl~t =3,63;) onklflg uhku uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu hkt k
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
45
pk}fkmfifuv b` kiobtu =;., Kt tukune mn`b}n) uhn KLBPK tfglf`fdkldn tdb}n kle uhn ] T{~k}ne
t~ook}v }nokfl ~ldhklgne `b} uhn dbltuklu) onklflg uhku uhn tfglf`fdkldn b` uhn obeni kt k
whbin ft ,333) kle whfin uhn ] T{~k}ne ft n{~ki ub ,08;) uhft onklt uhku 08,;. b` uhn obeni ft
nxsikflne uh}b~gh uhntn `b~} pk}fkmint,
K `flki obeni ft nxnd~une fl b}en} ub `~}uhn} nxsib}n kle nxskle uhn fosifdkufblt
gkuhn}ne `}bo uhn s}npfb~t uwb obenit, Uhn `flki obeni kt s}bandune mnibw) klkivqnt GLS kt k
t~mtufu~un `b} GLS sn} dksfuk, Uhn s~}sbtn b` tnsk}kuflg uhn uwb pk}fkmint onkt~}flg uhn wnkiuh
kle tfqn b` k db~lu}fnt ndblbov hkt k dbltfen}kmin tfglf`fdkldn, Fldi~eflg GLS kle GLS sn}
dksfuk wb~ie ~iufokuniv s}bpfen fl`b}okufbl `b} kl ndblbov kt k whbin) kl k}nk whfdh ft b`
db~}tn kl fosb}uklu `kdub} fl u}ken skuun}lt, Mv tnsk}kuflg GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk flub uwb
tnsk}kun }ng}nttfblt) uhn klkivtft ft mnuun} kmin ub dksu~}n uhn u}~n n``ndu b` ef``n}nlu sk}ut b` k
db~lu}vt ndblbov fl uhn endftfbl `b} nlgkgflg fl u}ken) whnuhn} fu ft enun}oflne mv uhn wnkiuh)
b} mv uhn gnln}ki tfqn b` uhn ndblbov,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
4>
Ukmin 4GLS) Sbifuv FP) U}ken kt k Sn}dnlukgn b` GES) & Lku~}ki Nln}gv ]ntb~}dn
]nlut kle Nln}gv Fosb}ut Klkivtft
Dbn``fdfnlut
Nln}gv Fosb}ut
(Ensnlenlu
Tibsn Tuklek}e N}}b} Tfglf`fdkldn
sbifuv5 ,>;; ;,7>8 ,77=
U}ken kt . b` GES /,;0> ,=46 ,56;
Lku~}ki Nln}gv ]ntb~}dn
]nlut kt . b` GES
/8,=;0 ,>8= ,333
GLS /=,5;8 N/;= ,333 ,504
Dbltuklu >7,505 =;,768 ,336
Obeni Tfglf`fdkldn1 ,333
Bmtn}pkufblt1;70
]/T{~k}n1 ,08=
Ov `flki klkivtft }nsikdnt GLS sn} dksfuk) wfuh GLS kt bln b` uhn `b~} pk}fkmint uhku ft
klkivqne fl uhn n``ndu b` nln}gv u}ken, Kt nxsikflne s}npfb~tiv) tnsk}kuflg GLS kle GLS sn}
dksfuk wkt kl fosb}uklu onkt~}n ukjnl fl b}en} ub ftbikun uhn uwb pk}fkmint ub dbosinuniv
~len}tukle uhn n``ndu uhku uhft k}nk b` k db~lu}vt ndblbov hkt bl uhn endftfbl ub fosb}u `b}nfgl
nln}gv, Uhft tnsk}kufbl wkt kitb pfuki fl s}bpfeflg pkifefuv ub uhn }nt~iut bmtn}pne fl uhft
klkivtft, Kt tnnl fl Ukmin 4) uhn }nt~iut `}bo tnsk}kuflg GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk k}n tfglf`fdklu
fl dbosk}ftbl ub uhn s}npfb~t klkivtft, Kt onlufblne s}npfb~tiv) GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk k}n
dbldnsu~kiiv pn}v ef``n}nlu, GLS pn}v tsndf`fdkiiv onkt~}nt uhn tfqn b` k db~lu}vt ndblbov)
whfin GLS sn} dksfuk ft uhn onkt~}n b` uhn wnkiuh b` uhn ndblbov,
Bmtn}pflg uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlut onkt~}nonlu) Sbifuv FP ft uhn bliv pk}fkmin uhku thbwt
k dink} sbtfufpn db}}nikufbl wfuh nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) kgkfl onklflg wfuh kl fld}nktn fl
enobd}kdv) uhn}n ft kl fld}nktn fl `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ut, Hbwnpn}) u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b`
GES) lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES) kle GLS kii }nsb}u k lngkufpn
db}}nikufbl wfuh `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) onklflg uhku wfuh kl fld}nktn fl `b}nfgl nln}gv
fosb}ut) uhn}n ft k end}nktn fl u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` ubuki GES) lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut kt
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
40
sn}dnlukgn b` ubuki GES) kle k uhn}n ft k end}nktn fl GLS, Fu ft fosb}uklu ub lbun) hbwnpn}) uhku
Sbifuv FP ft lbu tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) lnfuhn} ft u}ken kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES) lb} GLS, Wn
`fle uhft }nt~iu fl uhn ukmin ~len} Tfglf`fdkldn, GLS) kt en`flne mv uhn Wb}ie Mklj) ft uhn t~o
b` pki~n keene mv kii }ntfenlu s}be~dn}t si~t klv s}be~du ukxnt (intt t~mtfefnt lbu fldi~ene fl
uhn pki~kufbl b` b~us~u si~t lnu }ndnfsut b` s}fok}v fldbon (dbosnltkufbl b` nosibvnnt kle
s}bsn}uv fldbon& `}bo km}bke) t~ggntuflg uhku kt uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin ft dhk}kdun}fqne mv
fosb}ukufbl b` k `b}nfgl gbbe) uhn s}be~dufbl b` ebontufd nln}gv ft }ne~dne) hnldn uhn GLS b`
uhn db~lu}v wb~ie kitb end}nktn,
Bmtn}pflg uhn dbn``fdfnlut tfglf`fdkldn) kgkfl) wn bmtn}pn uhku kii pk}fkmint tfglf`fdkldn
onkt~}nonlut k}n kmbpn ,3>) wfuh uhn nxdnsufbl b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn
b` GES, Uhft kgkfl t~ggntut) uhku }ngk}eintt b` u}ken) enobd}kdv) kle npnl GLS) k db~lu}v
dhbbtnt ub fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv mktne bl uhn ubuki ebontufd lku~}ki }ntb~}dn nln}gv }nlut,
Dbltfen}flg uhn }nkifuv kle uhn ~iufokun hfgh fosb}ukldn b` nln}gv kle `~ni wfuhfl k db~lu}vt
kmfifuv ub `~ldufbl) ensnlenlu bl uhn kob~lu b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt kpkfikmin wfuhfl k db~lu}v ft uhn
bliv pk}fkmin uhku enun}oflnt k db~lu}vt dhbfdn ub fosb}u `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt, Fl }ngk}et ub
uhft klkivtft) k bln ~lfu dhklgn fl }nlu okuun}t `b} u}ken, Fl uhft dktn) k /8,=;0 dhklgn fl }nlu ft k
okab} dhklgn kle okuun}t hfghiv fl }ngk}et ub uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin,
Dbltfen}flg uhn klkivtft kt k whbin) uhn KLBPK tfglf`fdkldn tdb}n kgkfl s}ntnlut k
pki~n b` ,333, Uhft kgkfl t~ggntut uhku uhn obeni kt k whbin ft tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) kle uhn
s}bmkmfifuv uhku kii dbn``fdfnlut k}n abfluiv n{~ki ub qn}b ft intt uhkl ,3>, Uhn ] T{~k}ne tdb}n b`
uhn Obeni T~ook}v ft kitb s}ntnlune kt ,08=) onklflg uhku uhntn `b~} pk}fkmint) wfuh GLS sn}
dksfuk }nsikdne mv GLS) nxsikflt 08,=. b` uhn kob~lu b` pk}fkufbl fl uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin uhku
ft nxsikflne mv uhn flensnlenlu pk}fkmin, Uhft ft ,33= hfghn} uhkl uhn s}npfb~t obeni) whn}n
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
47
GLS ft t~mtufu~une wfuh GLS sn} dksfuk) t~ggntuflg uhku fl uhn bpn}kii ~len}tukleflg b` uhn
obenit) GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk k}n kiobtu flun}dhklgnkmin) kt lnfuhn} k}n tukuftufdkiiv
tfglf`fdklu, Hbwnpn}) kt ft thbwl fl uhn flensnlenlu Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlut klkivtft) uhn ef``n}nldn
mnuwnnl GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk wfuh `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl ft h~gn,
Uhn dbltuklu fl uhn `flki iflnk} }ng}nttfbl klkivtft kitb pk}fnt tifghuiv `}bo uhn s}npfb~t
obeni o~dh fl uhn tkon wkv uhku GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk tifghuiv kiun}ne fl uhnf} `flki ekuk
s}ntnlukufbl, Uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu `b} uhn dbltuklu ft >7,505 wfuh k tibsn b` ,336) ef``n}flg `}bo
uhn s}npfb~t obeni whn}n uhn Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu wkt >=,34= kle uhn tibsn wkt ,3;5, Whku ft
sb}u}kvne hn}n ft kl fld}nktne tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn `b} GLS pn}t~t GLS sn} dksfuk kt wnii kt k
end}nktne Tibsn Dbn``fdfnlu, Uhft fosifnt uhku whfin uhn s}ntnldn b` GLS fltunke b` GLS sn}
dksfuk okv mn ob}n tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) wfuh kii buhn} pk}fkmint hnie dbltuklu ku qn}b) nln}gv
fosb}ut fld}nktn ku k tibwn} }kun whnl bln b` uhn pk}fkmint ft GLS }kuhn} uhkl whnl fu ft GLS
sn} dksfuk, Kgkfl) kt uhn KLBPK tfglf`fdkldn tdb}n ebntlu dhklgn uhft obeni }nokflt
tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu) kle wfuh uhn fldi~tfbl b` GLS fltunke b` GLS sn} dksfuk) fu ft sb}u}kvne
uhku uhft obeni nxsikflt 08,=. b` uhn ubuki klkivtft bl flun}lkufblki nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) whfin
GLS sn} dksfuk bliv }ns}ntnlut 08,;., Uhn `kdu uhku uhn ef``n}nldn ft tb ofl~un t~ggntut uhku
uhn}n ft k g}nkun} ndblbofd `kdub} lbu fldi~ene fl uhft tu~ev, Fu ft fosb}uklu kitb ub lbun uhku uhn
`flki ekuk kle }nt~iut b` uhft klkivtft fl }ngk}et ub uhn dbltuklu k}n bliv sb}u}kvne fl uhn oklln}
b` kii flensnlenlu pk}fkmint mnflg n{~ki ub qn}b) whfin uhn ensnlenlu pk}fkmin ft uhn pk}fkmin
mnflg klkivqne,
Fl }ngk}et ub s}npfb~t }ntnk}dh sn}`b}one mv Mnnmn kle Jkieb}) whb k}g~n uhku nln}gv
tnd~}fuv ft tu}kungfdkiiv kss}bkdhne) ntsndfkiiv fl }ngk}et ub g}bwflg lkufblki tnd~}fuv flun}ntut fl
uhn =;tu dnlu~}v) uhn klkivtft dble~dune fl uhft sksn} t~ggntu buhn}wftn, @}bo uhn dbldi~tfblt
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
48
e}kwl `}bo uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft) kle uhn unl db~lu}fnt t~}pnvne bpn} uhn uwnluv vnk} sn}fbe) fu
tnnot kt uhb~gh db~lu}fnt k}n eftuflduiv `biibwflg whku Mnnmn kle Jkieb} entd}fmn kt uhn
ok}jnu kss}bkdh, Kt wn hkpn bmtn}pne fl uhn uwb iflnk} }ng}nttfblt dblukflflg GLS kle GLS
sn} dksfuk) uhn onkt~}nonlu b` enobd}kdv wfuhfl nkdh db~lu}v ft lbu tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Wn
kitb dbldi~en uhku GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk k}n lbu tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu, Fl `kdu) wn k}n kmin
ub bmtn}pn uhn bliv pk}fkmin nxs}nttflg klv tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn ft uhku b` lku~}ki nln}gv
}ntb~}dn }nlut, Whfin buhn} pk}fkmint whfdh wb~ie mn ktt~one ub hkpn kl foskdu bl nln}gv u}ken
k}n s}ntnlu) uhn ekuk b` uhft klkivtft fl `kdu s}ntnlut k pfnw pn}v dblu}k}v ub uhku b` Mnnmn kle
Jkieb}, Db~lu}fnt s}bpn uh}b~gh uhft klkivtft uhku ~lifjn Mnnmn kle Jkieb}t ktt~osufbl b`k
lnwiv enpnibsne tu}kungfd kss}bkdh fl uhn nln}gv u}ken) whfin fl `kdu k ok}jnu kss}bkdh ft tnnl
ub mn npfenlu `}bo uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft,
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
46
Dbldi~tfbl kle @~}uhn} Fosifdkufblt
Uhn}n ft lb k}g~onlu uhku b~} wb}ie ft mndboflg ob}n gibmkifqne kle flun}dbllndune)
kle wfuh uhft tnltn b` ubgnuhn}lntt) wn hkpn kitb dbon ub uhn ~lfpn}tki ~len}tukleflg uhku b~}
bldn tnnoflgiv ~lifofune }ntb~}dnt k}n fl `kdu `flfun, Kl kddnsune `kdu whfdh hkt mndbon ob}n
kssk}nlu fl uhn }ndnlu =;tu
dnlu~}v ft uhku b~} d~}}nlu `b}o b` ~tflg uhntn }ntb~}dnt ft lbu
t~tukflkmin fl lnfuhn} uhn wkv b~} fl`}ktu}~du~}n hkt mnnl d}nkune) lb} fl uhn wkv wn ~tn
}ntb~}dnt bl k ekfiv mktft, Uhft }nkifqkufbl hkt s}bif`n}kune sbifufdt fl oklv enpnibsne db~lu}fnt
wb}iewfen) whfin fl buhn} tukunt fu hkt mndbon mi~luiv kssk}nlu uh}b~gh flun}tukun wk}`k}n)
flunltf`fne sbpn}uv) kle tnpn}n ~len}enpnibsonlu,
Uhn s~}sbtn b` uhn klkivtft ~len}ukjnl fl uhft s}bandu ft ~len}iflne kle obufpkune mv
uhntn tbmn}flg `kdut, Uhn wkv uhn wb}ie ~tnt nln}gv) whfdh ft tb dibtniv ifljne ub kii ekfiv
`~ldufblt b` k lkufbl `}bo uhn mktfd obufblt b` bmukflflg dinkl e}fljflg wkun} ub uhn flun}kdufblt
b` ndblbofd tvtunot whfdh k}n mnflg enifpn}ne npn}v tndble) k}n kii k``ndune mv uhn wkv bln
bmukflt nln}gv, Uhft tu~ev tb~ghu ub `~}uhn} ~len}tukle kle uhn db}n b` lkufblt flunlufblt kle
gbpn}lkldn uhn endftfblt oken b` whn}n uhn bmukflonlu b` lkufblki nln}gv wfii b}fgflkun `}bo,
Dbltfen}flg uhku ~len}tukleflg t~dh kl flu}fdkun kle enukfine tvtuno hkt k wfen k}}kv b`
pk}fkmint) uhn flunlu b` uhft klkivtft wkt ub m}nkj ebwl flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken flub sk}ut
oklkgnkmin nlb~gh ub e}kw k wfen tnltn dbldi~tfbl kt ub whku n``ndut `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dn
fosb}ukufbl,
Uhn dbldi~eflg npfenldn `b~le uh}b~gh uhft s}bandu ft uhku whfin `kdub}t t~dh kt GLS kle
GLS sn} dksfuk wb~ie tnnoflgiv mn uhn obtu fl`i~nlufki `kdub}t fl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) kii uhntn
`kdub}t ktfen fu ft fl `kdu uhn s}ntnldn b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut whfdh hkpn uhn obtu ef}ndu
kle tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu foskdu bl `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl, Uh}b~gh uhn uh}nn tukuftufdki
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
53
obenit s}ntnlune fl uhft sksn}) npfenldn thbwt uhku uhn Sbifuv FP tdb}nt k}n uhn inktu tukuftufdkiiv
tfglf`fdklu fl mnflg uhn endfeflg `kdub}t b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl, GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk) whfdh
wb~ie mn nxsndune ub sikv hfghiv tfglf`fdklu }bint fl k``nduflg lnu nln}gv fosb}ut kt k sn}dnlukgn
b` ~tn) wn}n kitb `b~le ub mn intt tukuftufdkiiv tfglf`fdklu fl uhn bpn}kii k``nduflg `kdub}t b` nln}gv
fosb}ukufbl, Uhn tflgin pk}fkmin whfdh wkt `b~le ub mn b` uhn g}nkuntu kle obtu dbltftunlu
tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn wkt uhku b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut kt k sn}dnlukgn b` GES,
Bln b` uhn ob}n nxdfuflg }nt~iut b` uhft s}bandu ft `b~le wfuhfl uhn k}g~onlu oken mv
Mnnmn kle Jkieb}) kt s}npfb~tiv dfune fl uhft sksn}, Mnnmn kle Jkieb} oken uhn eftufldu
k}g~onlu uhku db~lu}fnt k}n `~ldufblflg ~len} uhn ktt~osufbl b` k tu}kungfd kss}bkdh ub nln}gv
tnd~}fuv) }kuhn} uhkl k ok}jnu mktne kss}bkdh, Whfin uhft k}g~onlu wb~ie hbie ~s wnii fl ifghu b`
uhn }ndnlu `nk}t b` gibmki difokun dhklgn) ensinufbl b` lku~}ki }ntb~}dnt) kle uhn }kdn `b}
bmukflonlu, Hbwnpn}) uhn }nt~iut b` uhft tu~ev s}bpn buhn}wftn,
F` fl `kdu) db~lu}fnt wn}n e}fpnl mv s~}n tu}kungfd kle sbwn} dbltfen}kufblt) GLS kle
GLS sn} dksfuk wb~ie hkpn mndbon ob}n s}npkinlu pk}fkmint wfuhfl uhft tu~ev, Uhn }nt~iut)
hbwnpn}) s}bpn buhn}wftn, GLS kle GLS sn} dksfuk s}bpne ub hkpn pn}v ifuuin ub lb tukuftufdki
tfglf`fdkldn fl uhft tu~ev, Uhft ft k tukunonlu uhku npnl db~lu}fnt whb hkpn ifuuin wnkiuh) b}
tokiin} ndblbofnt) tufii sk}ukjn fl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) hnldn sbwn}) hkt pn}v ifuuin ub eb wfuh uhn
tub}v, [~fun bl uhn dblu}k}v) lku~}ki }ntb~}dn }nlut s}bpn ub hkpn uhn obtu tukuftufdki tfglf`fdkldn)
onklflg uhku k ok}jnu kss}bkdh ub uhn flun}lkufblki nln}gv u}ken ft nosibvne,
Fl }ngk}et ub Mnnmn kle Jkieb}t m}bke tukunonlut b` ]~ttfk) uhn ^lfune Tukunt) kle
Dhflk nosibvflg k hk}e tnd~}fuv kss}bkdh) kle k tnd~}fufqkufbl kss}bkdh ub nln}gv }ntb~}dnt)
tnnot ub hkpn mnnl efts}bpnl uh}b~gh uhft tukuftufdki klkivtft, Whku fl `kdu hkt mnnl bmtn}pne ft
npnl uhn tokiintu kle sbb}ntu db~lu}fnt k}n fosb}uflg `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) lbu `b} uhn klgin
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
5;
b` tnd~}fufqflg k db~lu}fnt nln}gv }ntb~}dn t~}si~t) m~u ub kssnktn enokle kle lndnttfuv, Whku
hkt mnnl oken kpkfikmin `}bo uhft klkivtft ft uhku k ok}jnu enokle kle t~ssiv `b} nln}gv
}ntb~}dnt ft pn}v ifpniv mnflg sikvne b~u uh}b~ghb~u uhn wb}ie, Whnuhn} uhn db~lu}fnt k}n
wnkiuhv b} lbu) uhn}n ft k tunkev tu}nko b` nln}gv fosb}ukufbl sn}`b}one kt k }ntsbltn ub uhn
pk}fkmin b` lku~}ki nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut, Uhn dbldi~tfbl b` uhft klkivtft ft uhku db~lu}fnt k}n
}ntsbleflg ub k ok}jnu mktne u}keflg tvtuno) uhku k }ntsbltn ub enokle) kmbpn kii nitn) ft whku
e}fpnt k db~lu}vt s~}dhktflg sbwn},
]ntsbleflg ub k ok}jnu b` t~ssiv kle enokle ft lbu k lngkufpn dbldnsu) hbwnpn}) uhn
kpkfikmfifuv b` dhnks nln}gv fl uhn ok}jnu ft k mk}}fn} ub enpnibsflg kiun}lkufpn tb~}dnt, Kt tukune
s}npfb~tiv) k okab} s}bmino mnflg `kdne ft uhn dbldnsu b` obpflg `b}wk}e kle enpnibsflg tni`
t~tukflkmin s}bg}kot fl }ngk}et ub k dblufl~kufbl fl s}bpfeflg uhn enoklene nln}gv t~ssiv, Uhn
dhnks nln}gv ok}jnu whfdh ft kuu}kdufpn fl flun}lkufblki u}ken) `~lekonlukiiv `~nit k
enpnibsonlu s}bmino) kle sbtnt k `~u~}n uh}nku ub g}bwuh kle t~tukflkmfifuv, Kt uhn db~lu}fnt
whfdh lnne nln}gv fosb}ut kle hkpn ibw lkufblki t~ssifnt b` nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) `fle uhnotnipnt
~lkmin ub k``b}e `b}nfgl nln}gv }ntb~}dnt) uhnv wfii mn `kdflg iblg un}o mk}}fn}t fl uhnf} `~u~}n
g}bwuh, Whfin Mnnmn kle Jkieb} kuunosune ub okjn uhn k}g~onlu `b} db~lu}fnt `~ldufblflg fl k
tu}kungfd skuun}l fl uhft sn}fbe b` ufon) hftub}v hkt t~ggntune buhn}wftn) kle wfii dblufl~n
t~ggntuflg buhn}wftn ~lufi k tn}fb~t }ntb~}dn eftktun}) kle thb}ukgn mndbon fooflnlu, Fu ft uhnl
sn}hkst k tu}kungfd ok}jnu tu}kungv wfii mn nosibvne) kt t~ggntune mv Mnnmn kle Jkieb})
hbwnpn}) `b} uhn ufon mnflg kle mktne bl uhft klkivtft) uhku ufon ft lbu vnu ~sbl b~} flun}lkufblki
u}keflg tvtuno,
Mngfllflg uhn }ntnk}dh `b} uhft sksn}) F hke dbosinuniv s}ndbldnfpne lbufblt kmb~u uhn
u}~n fos}nttfblkmfifuv b` uhn ndblbofd kle u}ken ok}jnu, Sbifufdt) ndblbofdt) wnkiuh) kle ubuki
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^len}tukleflg uhn Fl`i~nldflg @kdub}t b` uhn Flun}lkufblki Nln}gv U}ken
5=
u}ken o~tu kii mn dboobl `kdub}t whfdh enun}ofln uhn fosb}ukufbl b` nln}gv }ntb~}dnt, Ub hkpn
~len}ukjnl uhft s}bandu kle tnnl uhn }nt~iut b` uhft klkivtft) dblu}kefdut uhntn s}nenun}oflne fenkt
b` flun}lkufblki `kdub}t fl u}ken, Hbwnpn}) uhft lnw ~len}tukleflg b` uhn ok}jnu s}nefdkunt k `~ii
lnw tnu b` pk}fkmint kle klkivtnt whfdh dkl mn `~}uhn} nxsib}ne kle ~len}ukjnl,
Whfin uhft tukuftufdki obeni kle ekuk tnu s}bpnt uhku Sbifuv FP tdb}nt k}n lbu tukuftufdkiiv
tfglf`fdklu fl `b}nfgl nln}gv fosb}ukufbl) kl klkivtft b` db~lu}vt mktne bl }ngfbl fldi~eflg uhn
tkon pk}fkmint wb~ie s}bpfen k mnuun} ~len}tukleflg b` uhn `~ii n``ndut b` sbifufdt kle }ngfblki
}nikufblthfst, Uhft s}bandu dbltftune b` unl db~lu}fnt dhbtnl ku }klebo tb kt ub lbu d}nkun k
mfktne ekuk tnu) hbwnpn}) whnl dbltfen}flg sbifufdki }nikufblt) kss}bkdhflg uhft ubsfd db~ie mn
`~}uhn} fii~oflkune whnl dblunxu~kifqflg db~lu}vt u}ken skuun}lt wfuhfl uhnf} tkon }ngfblki k}nk,
Uh}b~gh }ngfblki klkivtft b` db~lu}fnt) uhft kss}bkdh wfii kitb hnis ub m}bkenl kle ennsnl uhn
klkivtft) }kuhn} uhkl hkpflg k wfents}nke ekuk tnu,
K `~}uhn} tuns whfdh dkl mn nxsib}ne k`un} uhft klkivtft ft uhku b` nxskleflg uhn l~omn}
b` db~lu}fnt klkivqne, @b} uhn tkjn b` uhft s}bandu) uhn l~omn} b` db~lu}fnt klkivqne wkt ifofune
ub unl bpn} k sn}fbe b` uwnluv vnk}t: hbwnpn}) fu wb~ie mn mnln`fdfki ub nxskle uhft l~omn}, Uhft
wb~ie s}bpfen g}nkun} pkifefuv ub uhn ekuk npfenldne uh}b~gh uhn uh}nn iflnk} }ng}nttfblt dk}}fne
b~u fl uhft klkivtft) kt wnii kt s}bpfeflg k g}nkun} ekuk tnu `b} ob}n s}ndftn }nt~iut, Uhft n``ndu b`
m}bkenlflg uhn klkivtft wb~ie kitb s}bpfen k mnuun} dblunxu~kifqkufbl f` k }ngfblki klkivtft ft
~len}ukjnl,
Uhn s~}sbtn b` uhft s}bandu ft ub `~}uhn} ~len}tukle uhn dhbfdnt ~len}ukjnl mv db~lu}fnt fl
uhn flun}lkufblki u}ken b` nln}gv, Kt eftd~ttne fl uhn fosb}ukldn b` uhft t~mandu kle uhn ifun}k}v
klkivtft) whfin nln}gv fosb}ukufbl ft enun}oflne mv nln}gv }ntb~}dn }nlut) uhn okfl dbldn}l
}nifnt fl fldnlufpnt b` thf`uflg `bd~t ubwk}et t~tukflkmfifuv kle fllbpkufbl fl kiun}lkufpn nln}gv
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7/31/2019 Daria Preston Underst