damage to agriculture due to water shortage
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Damage to agriculture due to water shortage. Wouter Vanneuville 24-06-2010 Maastricht. Brief overview. Inventory of stakeholders Interviews Workshops Analysis of measures Social acceptance Quantitative analysis Cost-benefit analysis Low water strategy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Damage to agriculture due to water shortage
Wouter Vanneuville24-06-2010Maastricht
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Brief overview
• Inventory of stakeholders• Interviews• Workshops
• Analysis of measures• Social acceptance• Quantitative analysis• Cost-benefit analysis
Low water strategy• Juridical and technical feasibility
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Model instruments
Water system
Water chain
agriculturemodel
Water balancemodel
shippingmodel
Meteorologicalmodel
Water supply1976, 2003
Water request2002
damagemodel
Qualitative Consequences
(not able to quantify)
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Model instruments
Zone 50. Waterinput in een 50 %droogtejaar
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
da
g
Water input in a 50% dry year
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Model instruments
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Model instruments
kost/dag
aantal dagen
9 strategies are worked out, based on:-Costs-Water savings-Need of different sectors-Different weightings-…
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Water use by farm crops
• Project done by “Bodemkundige Dienst van Belgi딕 Goal: estimation (time) of water demand (based on
water gift) in agriculture (grassland, maize, wheats, potatoes, sugar beet, poplar, vegetables, fruit trees, ornamental plant cultivation and tree nursery)
• Geographic: alongCampine canals, Albert canal (alsodone for Ghent area)
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Based on soil association map
Kempische zone
Gentse Kanaalzone
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Soil (Campine area)
AssociatieDrainageklasse Grondwaterinvloed Textuurvereenvoudiging
0 niet gekarteerd (bebouwde zones)13 a, b, c geen S zandgronden zonder profielontwikkeling meetstal zeer droog tot droog14 a, b, c geen S droge zand en lemig zandgronden met humus of/en ijzer B horizont15 c, d, e, f, g c-d S natte zand en lemig zandgronden met humus of/en ijzer B horizont16 a, b, c geen S droge zand en licht zandleemgronden met kleur B horizont of textuur B horizont17 c, d, e, f c-d S natte zand en licht zandleemgronden met kleur B horizont of textuur B horizont19 c-d S complex van 15 en 1720 a, b, c geen L droge zand en lemig zandgronden met diepe antropogene humus A horizont21 c, d, e, f c-d L natte zand en lemig zandgronden met diepe antropogene humus A horizont60 d, e, f, g c-d L natte alluviale gronden zonder profielontwikkeling
SAMENVATTING geen S 13,14,16c-d S 15, 17,19
geen L 20c-d L 0, 21, 60
L: heavy clay, S: loamy sand
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Soil
• Moisture retention characteristics based on texture and average carbon grade
• example: L (cultivation layer, Campine area)
• Capilar subsequent delivery (Stikoba, based on texture)
T hèta - h
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0. 000 0. 050 0. 100 0. 150 0. 200 0. 250 0. 300 0. 350 0. 400 0. 450 0. 500
vol%
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Max.capillaire opstijging (mm/dg)
Afs
tan
d ts
s. G
W e
n o
nd
erz
ijde
eff.
be
wo
rte
ling
(cm
)
zand (grof)
zand (leemarm)
fijn zand (zwak lemig)
lemig zand
kleïg zand
licht zandleem
(zwaar) zandleem
leem
zwaar leem
klei (licht tot zandig)
klei
lichte polder
zware polder
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Land use (areas, cultivation)
• Recordings in manure database on parcel level (GIS) for most of the crops
• Other based on NIS-data (tree nursery, ornamental plant cultivation) or separate data layers (forest)
Soil combinations (land use and soil association) • example: Maaseik
(zone 5, in ha)zone 5: S Sc L Lc571aardappelen 1 5suikerbiet 3groentenfruitmais 0 73gras 9 139granenbos, difuus e.a. 30 311OL Sier en boomtlt 1
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Climatology (for 2 typical years)
Weather conditions
ETo 1 – exceedance frequency of rainfall
Sommation of insolation
Extreem dry 20% No
Dry 40% 80% 80%
Normal 50% 50% 50%
wet 60% 20%
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Rainfall
• Reliable rainfall: expectable rainfall summation on a given day
• Cultivation simulation over 46 years, check for typical years
Neerslag, cumulatief te Semmerzake/Munte.Betrouwbare neerslag (1959-2004) en neerslag 2003.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
10001
-1
1-2
1-3
1-4
1-5
1-6
1-7
1-8
1-9
1-1
0
1-1
1
1-1
2
datum
neers
lag
(m
m)
20%
50%
80%
2003
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Climatology: definition of typical years
Wateraanvoer voor aardappelen op bodemassoc. Sc, Kleine Brogel: Overschrijdingskans.
y = 262.32e-2.131x
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
Overschrijdingskans
Wat
eraa
nvo
er (
mm
)
Betrouwbare neerslag te Kleine Brogel (59-04) op basis van gecumuleerde neerslag tijdens het jaar.
Analyse per decade.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
0-jan 19-feb 9-apr 29-mei 18-jul 6-sep 26-okt 15-dec 3-feb
decade
mm
/dec
ade
20%
50%
80%
Based on 10-day values (correction for run-off and evaporation) >>Tuning of correction factors
Overschrijdingskans Neerslagcorrectiefactor droge jaar 20 % 0.85 normaal jaar (mediaan) 50 % 0.75 Overschrijdingskans Beregening Capillaire nalevering mm mm 2001 20 % 125 34 droge jaar 20 % 125 30 1996 50 % 75 27 normaal jaar (mediaan) 50 % 75 28
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Maximum moisture request
• ETo x Kc = ETm (Kc : crop factors)• mostly: Kc = 1.2 (not for trees: Kc = 1)
• Actual moisture demand (ETa) based on model simulations• Inputs: climatologic
typical years (20% dry year, mediumyear)
• Cultivation characteristics and soil combinations
-
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Water demand for irrigation and sprinkling
• Distinction between intensive (most) and extensive (trees) agriculture
• Based on several premises (e.g. sub-areas are historically hydromorph and independent of additional water input)Zone 50. Waterinput in een 50 %droogtejaar
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
per
iod
e
IRRI/dec
CN/dec
TOT/dec
Zone 50. Waterinput in een 50 %droogtejaar
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
da
g
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ResultsZone 50. Waterinput in een 20 %droogtejaar
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
per
iod
e
IRRI/dec
CN/dec
TOT/dec
Zone 50. Waterinput in een 20 %droogtejaar
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
da
g
Zone 700. Waterinput in een 20 % droogtejaar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
dag
Zone 700. Waterinput in een 50 %droogtejaar
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
dag
m³/
dag