daily i-forex-report-4-sep-2013
DESCRIPTION
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DAILY IFOREX REPORT
04th SEP 2013
Aussie, Pound Lead; US Dollar Holds Gains Despite Misleading Syrian Report
Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues
Commodity prices are little-changed in European trade as investors look past a quiet local economic calendar toward the US data docket, where the release of Augusts’ ISM Manufacturing gauge begins a busy week of high-profile releases amid swirling Fed “taper” speculation. Economists’ forecasts point to a slight slowdown in factory-sector activity after the measure hit a 25-month high in July.
A soft print that is seen as limiting the scope for stimulus reduction is likely to boost risk appetite, offering cycle-sensitive commodities. It is likewise likely to weigh on the US Dollar, generating a corollary advance in the precious metals space. Needless to say, an upside surprise will probably produce the inverse dynamic. It is also important to keep in mind that crude oiland gold remain sensitive to headline risk surrounding the developing situation in Syria. Signs of imminent Western intervention are likely to drive fears of a wider conflict, boosting prices (and vice versa).
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3160 TGT 1.3140/1.3110
SL 1.3190
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.80
TGT 100.00/100.30 SL
99.50
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5600 TGT 1.5620/1.5650
SL 1.5570
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>46(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Sep 1
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI
Medium 51.0 50.6 50.3
22:45
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium 4.9% 3.8% 4.2%
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.4%
0.3%
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)
Low 1.8%
1.3%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)
Medium 46.4
42.0
23:50
JPY Capital Spending (2Q)
Medium 0.0% -2.1% -3.9%
23:50
JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)
Medium 1.4% -3.8% -5.2%
23:50
JPY Company Profits (2Q)
Low 24.0%
6.0%
23:50
JPY Company Sales (2Q)
Low -0.5%
-5.8%
Mon Sep 2
00:00
AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG)
Low 0.5%
1.6%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)
Low 0.1%
0.5%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)
Low 2.1%
2.7%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)
Low 10.8% 4.0% -6.3%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)
Low 28.3% 20.0% -11.8%
01:30
AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)
Low -0.8% 0.9% 3.5%
01:30
AUD Inventories (2Q) Low 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
Medium 50.1 50.2 47.7
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low -6.4%
-13.5%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG)
Low 94.3
91.8
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG)
Low -7.3%
9.7%
07:30
CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG)
Low 54.6 56.0 57.4
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)
Low 51.3 50.8 50.4
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Low 49.7 49.7 49.7
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Medium 51.8 52.0 52.0
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)
Medium 51.4 51.3 51.3
08:30
GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending
Medium
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)
Medium 57.2 55.0 54.8
09:00
EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3
Medium
11:20
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram
Low
11:30
GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit
Medium
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.4% 2.2%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
38%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG)
Low
¥173.3T
Tue Sep 3
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG)
Low
5.6% 4.6%
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.8% 0.9%
01:00
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)
Medium
54.1
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)
Low
0.6%
01:30
AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q)
Medium
-8.5B -8.5B
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.4% 0.0%
01:30
AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q)
Low
0.1 1
01:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
Low
0.6%
04:30 LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3)
High
2.5% 2.5%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
1.7% 1.2%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium
0.3% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)
Medium
56.9 57.0
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Low
0.1% 0.3%
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG)
Medium
54.0
14:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG)
High
54 55.4
14:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.3% -0.6%
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG)
Medium
51.2 49
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP)
Low
46 45.1
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q)
Low
22:45
NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG)
Low
5.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.5%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG)
Medium
39.4
Wed
Sep 4 01:30 LIVE
AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
High
0.6% 0.6%
01:30 LIVE
AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
2.5% 2.5%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG)
Medium
51.3
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)
Low
48.7
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Low
47.7 47.7
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Medium
52.4 52.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F)
Medium
51.7 51.7
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)
Medium
51 51
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)
Medium
59 60.2
08:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG)
Low
$1672M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)
High
0.3% 0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P)
High
-0.7% -0.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.3% -0.9%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
-0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
-1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low
0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.4% -0.5%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30)
Low
-2.5%
11:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.3%
12:30
USD Trade Balance (JUL)
Medium
-$38.6B -$34.2B
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL)
Low
-0.40B -0.47B
13:45
USD ISM New York (AUG)
Low
67.8
14:00
CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4)
High
1.00% 1.00%
16:30
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon
Low
18:00
USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
High
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG)
Low
12.20M 12.09M
21:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG)
Low
15.80M 15.60M
Thu Sep 5
JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5)
High
¥270T
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
00:00
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin
Low
01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL)
Medium
100M 602M
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
2.7% 4.3%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-1.0% 3.8%
11:00 LIVE
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
0.5% 0.5%
11:00 LIVE
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP)
High
375B 375B
11:45 LIVE
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5)
High
0.5% 0.5%
11:45 LIVE
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
12:15
USD ADP Employment Change (AUG)
Medium
180K 200K
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31)
Medium
330K 331K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24)
Low
2989K
12:30
USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F)
Low
1.5% 0.9%
12:30
USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F)
Low
1.0% 1.4%
13:00
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin
Low
14:00
USD Factory Orders (JUL)
Medium
-3.50% 1.50%
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (AUG)
Medium
55 56
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30)
Low
2986K
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30)
Low
-316K
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30)
Low
-587K
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG)
Medium
44.1
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG)
Low
$1254.0B
Fri
Sep 6
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG)
Low
12.7%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September
Medium
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (JUL P)
Medium
106.9 105.5
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JUL P)
Medium
107.9 107.2
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)
Medium
16.3B 16.9B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL)
Low
14.0B 17.3B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.8% 0.6%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.7% -0.8%
06:00
EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
1.1%
06:00
EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q)
Low
3.9%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG)
Low
A$55.5B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG)
Low
434.9B
07:15
CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.5%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q)
Medium
3.0%
07:15
CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0% -0.4%
08:30
GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG)
Medium
3.6%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-1.7% 1.2%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.7% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)
Medium
-£1700 -£1548
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.0% 1.1%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.3% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL)
Low
-£2950 -£2646
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)
Low
-£8200 -£8082
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
0.6% 2.0%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-0.5% 2.4%
12:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina
Low
12:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG)
High
30.0K -39.4K
12:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG)
High
7.2% 7.2%
12:30 LIVE
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)
High
180K 162K
12:30 LIVE
USD Unemployment Rate (AUG)
High
7.4% 7.4%
12:30
CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG)
Medium
-18.3
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
2.0% 1.9%
12:30
USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)
Medium
175K 161K
12:30
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG)
Medium
63.4%
12:30
USD Underemployment Rate (AUG)
Medium
14.0%
12:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG)
Low
-21.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate (AUG)
Low
66.5
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.2% -0.1%
12:30
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG)
Low
34.5 34.4
12:30
USD Change in Household Employment (AUG)
Low
227K
12:30
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG)
Low
5K 6K
12:30
USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG)
Low
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG)
High
0.7%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG)
Medium
54 48.4
17:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska
Low
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