www.dafne-project.eu

@dafne_project

DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE

WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY

WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.

Funded under the H2020 Framework

Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268

DAFNE in a nutshell

Prof. Dr. Jasminko Novak

EIPCM Berlin / HOST Stralsund

What is the DAFNE project about

Models & tools for the analysis of the WEF Nexus for policy making

• Develop a quantitative analytic

framework & stakeholder tools

for exploration of trade-offs

among planning and

management options in IWRM

• Support basin policy making in

the context of competing use of

water by the energy, agriculture

and environment sectors

• Participatory approach (PIP)

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DAFNE - Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex

and transboundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countries

• Research and Innovation Action funded by EU Horizon 2020

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Two transboundary pilot case studies

Zambezi

• ~2,700 km, ~1.39 million km2

• longest east flowing river in Africa

• 8 riparian states (Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania).

WEF issues• resource availability vs. population

density• expansion of irrigated agriculture• additional hydropower schemes• ecosystem conservation and

expanding tourism.

• ~760 km (Omo), ~130,000 km2

• Source in northern Highlands with annual

precipitation > 1500 mm

• 2 riparian states (Ethiopia and Kenya)

• outflow into Lake Turkana (endorheic)

• 80-90 % of annual inflow into Lake Turkana

comes from Omo

WEF issues

• Gibe I-II-III operational, Koysha planned +

large-scale irrigation schemes for commercial

sugar cane production

• competing water withdrawal

• effects on Lake Turkana water level variability

• environmental and cultural conservation

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Two transboundary pilot case studies

Omo-Turkana

Participatory Integrated Planning (PIP) The DAFNE approach

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VNL (virtualnegotiationlab)–WP6

Inthevirtualnegotiationlabthestakeholder/DMscomparativelyassessthepathwayprovidedbyWP5andnegotiatetoextractseveralinteresting

largelyagreeduponalternatives.

DAF(decisionanalyticframework)–WP5

Robustpathways(sequencesofactions)areselectedviasimulation-basedoptimizationoftheintegratedmodelbuiltinWP3fordifferentalternativecombinations/timingofplanningactionssuggestedbyWP3andWP4undercurrentandfutureclimaticandsocio-technologicalscenarios(WP3).PathwayareassessedbasedonthemultipleindicatorsidentifiedinWP2.

TheDAFprovides:

• Setofinterestingalternativepathwaysforeachscenariosconsidered.

• Asetofrobustalternativesacrossallthescenarios.

INDICATORS –WP2

• EvaluationIndicatorsrepresentingthedifferentstakeholdergroupsareidentifiedsectorbysectorincollaborationwiththestakeholdersandthedecisionmakers.

• AdditionalhighlevelindicatorscanbeformulatedinWP3tocapturegovernance,economicandlegalaspectofgeneralinterest.

MODELS–WP3/WP4

• Modelsofthenaturalprocessesaresetupandvalidated

• Modelsofthesocio-economicprocessesaresetupandvalidated

• Themodelofthedifferentcomponentsarecombinedintoanintegratedmodel

ACTIONSandSCENARIOS– WP2

• Currentbaseline andfuture scenarios ofthemaindrivers(boundaries)ofthesystemare

built.

• Planning andmanagement actions,including

infrastructural,normativeandoperationalinterventionareidentified(theactionwillbecombinedintopathways:temporalsequenceofsetofactions)

SetoffeasibleactionsTrajectoriesofkeyvariables(e.g.reservoirstorages,watersupply,

agriculturalproduction,…)

Pathwaysandevaluationindicators

Candidatepathways

MONITORING–WP2

• Historicaldataacquisition

• Largescaleremotesensingandlocalscale

UnmannedAerialVehiclesurveys

• Groundtruthbyfieldwork

• Socio-economicsurveys

STAKEH

OLD

ERSIN

VOLVEM

ENT

STAKEH

OLD

ERSIN

VOLVEMENT

STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT

STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT

FEEDBACK

MONITORINGACTIONS

and

SCENARIO

S

INDICATORS

MODELS

DAF

NSL

STAKEHOLDER

INVOLVEMENT

Decision-Analytic Framework (DAF) A central outcome of the project

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The DAF is a quantitative assessment tool to:

• facilitate understanding of the impact of alternative planning options on the broad range of heterogeneous and often competing interests

• support comparative analysis of alternative pathways

Negotiation Simulation LabInvolving the stakeholders & facilitating the nexus analysis

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Supporting stakeholder analysis of water – energy – food issues through:

• Identifying, comparing and discussing trade-offs in the water-energy-food nexus

• In face-to-face meetings• Online analysis and discussion

• Tools supporting mapping & modelling of issues, indicators and actions

• Visualization, exploration and management of solution alternatives

www.dafne-project.eu

@dafne_project

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More in Session 4

Session 4: The Nexus in Transboundary Systems in Developing Countries

DAFNE projectpresentation

Phoebe Koundouri, ICRE8/Athens University of Economics & Business/SDSN Greece

Discussion Panel:

PanagiotisBalabanis

European Commission, DG RTD, Dir. I Climate action & resource efficiency, Unit 2 Eco-innovation, Deputy Head of Unit,

Claudia Ringler International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Deputy Director of Environment and Production Technology Division

KidanemariamJembere Tiruneh

GWP Southern Africa, Technical Advisor for Water, Climate and Development Programme (WACDEP)

Jennifer Braun Advisor, Sustainable Energy for Food - Powering Agriculture, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)

Moderator: Jasminko Novak European Institute for Participatory Media, Berlin / HOST

Stralsund

Reserve slides

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