d ecadal climate prediction in the mediterranean region

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Climate Forecasting Unit Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain 2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France 3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France 4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, USA 5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain 6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,

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D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting Unit

Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6)

1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de

l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office,

Silver Spring, USA5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

Page 2: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting Unit

Mediterranean climate

To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?

Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability

During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012)

Page 3: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting Unit

AMV skill

Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization

From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N)

Page 4: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting Unit

AMO-related predictability

Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter

DJF JJA

Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns

From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012)

Page 5: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting Unit

Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5

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Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5

Page 6: D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

Climate Forecasting UnitO

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Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5

Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5