curt b. haselton, phd, pe csu, chico jack w. baker, phd stanford university

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Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the

FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology

Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the

FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology

Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE

CSU, Chico

Jack W. Baker, PhD

Stanford University

U.S. Resiliency Council

Presentation on Software Development

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P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).

P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).

P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to regional/portfolio analyses).

ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to improving the methodology, implementation, ease of use.

The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) uses a modified version of FEMA P-58 as part of the process.

Overview of FEMA P-58Overview of FEMA P-58

U.S. Resiliency CouncilPresentation on Software Development

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FEMA P-58 Output Results:

• Losses ($) [USRC: Repair Cost Rating]

• Fatalities & injuries [USRC: Safety Rating]

• Repair time & red tagging [USRC: Recovery Time Rating (some translation required)]

Types of analysis results:

• Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [USRC Ratings]

• Time-based (annualized values)

• Scenario-based (for a given event)

Overview of FEMA P-58Overview of FEMA P-58


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Sample results (12-story RC frame):

FEMA P-58: Output ExamplesFEMA P-58: Output Examples


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Dig as deep as you like…

FEMA P-58: Output ExamplesFEMA P-58: Output Examples


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Hazard and Ground Motions

• Soil and hazard curve

• Ground motions (if needed)

FEMA P-58: MethodologyFEMA P-58: Methodology


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• Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses

• Option #1: Response-history

• Option #2: Simplified method



EQ: 11122, Sacomp

(T=1sec): 1.02g

Deierle in, Haselton, Lie l (Stanford Univers ity)

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• Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction

• Contents (str. and non-str.)

• Fragility curves



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• Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves)

and other consequences



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Monte Carlo Simulation used

(“roll dice” thousands of times).

Each “dice roll” gives a single observation of

losses (and other consequences).

Putting all of the “dice rolls” together gives solid statistical information on

performance.

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Objective process based on data and research. Quantitative performance information:

• Dig as deep as you like.

• Tools to communicate with owners.

• Solid statistical basis.

FEMA P-58: BenefitsFEMA P-58: Benefits


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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”


I need to hire a geotech to do this…?

I need to do a response-history

analysis…?

I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall

and other contents…?









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It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58 as some currently perceive it to be.

The “What If” Question:

• What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58 analysis that could be done in hours rather than days (and provide all of the same benefits)?

FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”


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Most of the barrier to widespread use of FEMA P-58 are related to software and ease-of-use.

FEMA and ATC have created a great methodology but are not in the business of maintaining software.

FEMA has funded additional ongoing development and is currently working on both the methodology and design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.).

For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA P-58 methods someone needs to step-up to provide and maintain enabling software once FEMA/ATC are done with Phase II work.

My Thinking Over Past Couple YearsMy Thinking Over Past Couple Years


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In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work to fill this needed role by:

a) Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58.

b) Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.).

c) Improving and extending the methodology in the future after ATC/FEMA work is done (improvements, comparative methods, etc.).

Timing: Our timing lines up with the USRC work, so we would like to help support the USRC process.

My Thinking Over Past Couple YearsMy Thinking Over Past Couple Years


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Software Implementation of FEMA P-58Software Implementation of FEMA P-58


Soil and hazard curves embedded.

Simplified method embedded (only need period, mode shape,

yield drift).

Structural and non-structural contents estimates and pre-

populated.

Two-level structure: (1) Simple (basic rating, prelim. design, PML)(2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).

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Status and Timeline:• February: Started.• April: Secured a National Science Foundation

research commercialization grant to help fund.• Currently: In active development (Jack, me, others).• Fall: Beta release expected this fall.

ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable).

Status and TimelineStatus and Timeline


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Draft SP3 ToolDraft SP3 Tool


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We want to support and enable the USRC rating system effort as best as possible.

We are still in active development, so please:

• Let us know how we can tailor things to be most useful to the USRC effort.

• Give us any other feedback/thoughts (we are all ears!).

E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Cell: (530) 514-8980

Next StepsNext Steps


curt b. haselton, phd, pe csu, chico jack w. baker, phd stanford university

Documents

resiliency councilpresentation

consequences fema p

fragility curves fema

simplified method fema

modified version of

given event overview

hazard curveground motions

year fema study