current marketing issues seminar
DESCRIPTION
Current Marketing Issues Seminar. BA635 Dr. Ed Forrest. The Essence of Marketing. Anything/Everything one does to facilitate exchange. Seller. Buyer. Whatever impacts Why-What-Where-When-How Exchange occurs… is (or becomes) an Issue…. ERGO. Society. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Current Current Marketing Marketing
Issues SeminarIssues SeminarBA635
Dr. Ed Forrest
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The Essence of Marketing
Anything/Everything one does to facilitate exchange
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ERGOWhatever impactsWhy-What-Where-
When-How Exchange occurs…
is (or becomes)
an Issue…
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Marketing Issues in Perspective
Marketing - part of Business & Business - part of Society
Marketing
Business Society
“Societal Change” creates
“issues” for Business…
which creates “issues” for Marketing
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One needs to identify-anticipate-
understand
Thus- in order to identify- anticipate- understand
Marketing Issues in particular
Societal Change in general
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Society Defined:Society Defined:
A group of humans broadly distinguished by:
mutual interests, participation in
characteristic relationships,shared institutions, &a common culture
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Hence- our search for marketing issues begins w/ examination of…
Patterns of/changes to:
human interests, relationships, institutions &
culture…
…become marketing issues
THUS-
In the final analysis marketing strategy is formulated to
address…
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Course Organizing Paradigm
Course Organizing Paradigm“… begin in a more or less inductive or
empirical fashion by identifying
what all civilizations
have in common”
Alvin Toffler, Previews & Premises (William Morrow & Co. New York, 1983) Page197
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All civilizations have:
an energy system…
a method of producing goods & services…
a system for distributing those goods & services…
Energy, production & distribution are all … tied together… to form a
TechnoSphere
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“All societies have some sort of communication infrastructure–
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Every civilization has a
SocioSphere consisting of interrelated social
institutions, associations, reference & affinity groups
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‘PsychoSphere’ intimate relationships, subjectivity-personality
All societies operate within a BioSphere & have a PowerSphere-- authority allocated thru formal & informal political institutions
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“Put together these spheres encompass most all that goes on in any civilization or society”
BIOBIO
SOCIOSOCIO
TECHNOTECHNO
PSYCHOPSYCHO
INFOINFO
POWERPOWER
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When change rips across all Spheres…
BIOBIOPSYCHO
TECHNO
SOCIOSOCIO
INFO
You have a paradigm shift in principles/processes that define a civilization…
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Our Place in TimeSeptember 6, 2012
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Nearing end 65 year cycle defined as Information Age-abt to enter Symbiotic Age
Hominid Age 2,000,000
Homo Sapiens 100,000 yrs
Tribal Age 25,000 yrs
Agricultural Age 10,000 yrs
Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770)
Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950)
Information Age 65 yrs (1950-2015)Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2015-2045)
Singularity ~ 2045
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"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. --The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer
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to knowledge based economy
to knowledge based economy
to primary focus on information gathering, analysis & marketing
to primary focus on information gathering, analysis & marketing
As early as 1969 Peter Drucker foresaw an “age of Discontinuity” w/ upcoming shifts:
From manufacturing based economy
From manufacturing based economy
From primary focus on engineering & manufacturing
From primary focus on engineering & manufacturing
Drucker, Peter F. The Age of Discontinuity. Harper & Row Publishers, Inc: New York, 1969.
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In 1988 Drucker wrote “The Coming of the New Organization”
“by 2008 successful organizations “will be knowledge-based
… composed largely of specialists who direct … their own performance through organized feedback… from colleagues, customers & headquarters.”
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1. Shift from a goods-producing to service economy
2. Be dominated by professional & technical class
3. Be knowledge driven4. & Future oriented
1. Shift from a goods-producing to service economy
2. Be dominated by professional & technical class
3. Be knowledge driven4. & Future oriented
In early ’70’s Daniel Bell foresaw coming post-industrial society-- that would:
Pre-Ind. Industrial Post-Ind.
Key Resource Land Machine Knowledge
Socio-locus Farm Corporation Lab
"Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting; 1973
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1980- Toffler’s 3rd Wave
First Wave ~8000BC Hunter Gatherer To Agricultural Age
Second Wave ~1750’sAgricultural Age To Industrial Age
Third Wave ~1950’sIndustrial Age To Information Age
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As Machines emptied countryside...
& gave us factory-work in cities
Computers emptied factories
& gave us paper-work in offices
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3rd iteration of Industrial Revolution
3rd Wave of Civilization
3rd iteration of Web Evolution
3rd iteration of Marketing Mind-Set
~ 2 decades away from the Singularity
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Social Wave Theory: When all Spheres totally transformed a new
Civilizational-Wave rolls over preceding waves
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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1st Wave1st Wave 3rd Wave3rd Wave
LANDLAND
•Basis of economy•Life organized ‘round village•Economy Decentralized•Every village produce most of its necessities
CAPITALCAPITAL
•Like land- a zero sum commodity*
•Necessary for control of Production-Labor & Raw materials
InformationInformation
Uniquely different from previous key commodities
KEY COMMODITY2nd Wave2nd Wave
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
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What’s so different about information?
•Expandable- infinity expansive commodity
•Transportable- geography no longer matters
•Compressible- can be summarized, encoded
•*Sharable- Value increases when shared
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority..... Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity....... Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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Production
New Technologies powered by New Energy sources enabled mass production…
Adam Smith -1776-w/ the pin lesson & concept of “man-ufacturing”“man-ufacturing”
Applied in 1908 by Ford in production of Model T
New Technologies powered by New Energy sources enabled mass production…
Adam Smith -1776-w/ the pin lesson & concept of “man-ufacturing”“man-ufacturing”
Applied in 1908 by Ford in production of Model T
The Pin:The Pin:
One craftsman = ~20 pins/day
Break into 18 steps-
10 workers-each 1-2 specialized tasks = 4,800 pins/day
The Pin:The Pin:
One craftsman = ~20 pins/day
Break into 18 steps-
10 workers-each 1-2 specialized tasks = 4,800 pins/day
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Division of Labor
The Model TThe Model T Requires 7,882 tasks requiring:
“949 strong men3,338 ordinary men670 legless 2,637 one legged2 armless715 one armed10 blind men”*
The Model TThe Model T Requires 7,882 tasks requiring:
“949 strong men3,338 ordinary men670 legless 2,637 one legged2 armless715 one armed10 blind men”*
*autobiography
Characterized by:
• Hi energy input
• Hi waste pollution
• Low skill
• Repetitive work
• Standardized goods
• Centralized control
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Today: Production
Labor -Automated Scale- Customized/Personalized
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TechnoSphere
-Energy
TechnoSphere
-Energy1st Wave: MANIMAL winches, wedges, catapults, winepresses, levers & hoists –amplified by man & animals
2nd Wave -
Electromechanical –
“w/ moving parts, belts, bearings & bolts– clacking & ratcheting along”
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Initial Electro = Hydro & Direct Current necessitated Local Sourcing
Alternating allowed Central Utilities w/ Long-D Dist.
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Info-Processing, Applications &
Storage
2010 20302020
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38
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“for past 30 years searching for a new paradigm ..I came to realize --great economic revolutions in history occur when new communication technologies converge with new energy systems”
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IR 1.0 - 19th century
Steam-powered print technology became the
communication medium
to manage the coal-fired rail infrastructure and the
incipient national markets
of the 1st Industrial Revolution
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IR 2.0- 20th centuryElectronic
communications--the telephone and later, radio
television--became the communication medium
to manage & market
the oil-powered auto age & mass consumer
culture
of the 2nd Industrial Revolution
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IR 3.0- 21st century…”mid-1990s…a new convergence
of communication and energy was in the offing.
Internet technology & renewable energies
create powerful new infrastructure for a 3rd Industrial Revolution (TIR)
that would change the world”
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Info & Energy Internets In coming era, hundreds of millions of people
will produce their own green energy in their homes, offices, and factories and share it with each other in an "energy Internet,“* just like we now create and share information online.
The democratization of energy will bring with it a fundamental reordering of human relationships, impacting the very way we conduct business, govern society, educate our children, and engage in civic life. *Smart Grid
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Lateral- Collaboration
“The Third Industrial Revolution is the last of the great Industrial Revolutions and will lay the foundational infrastructure for an emerging collaborative age.
In the coming half century, the conventional, centralized business operations of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions will increasingly be subsumed by the distributed business practices of the Third Industrial Revolution; and the traditional, hierarchical organization of economic and political power will give way to lateral power organized nodally across society.”
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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11stst Wave Wave 3rd Wave3rd WaveInterpersonalInterpersonal
Face to faceFace to face
1:1Augmented by:•Listening post
•Distance Runner•Town Crier
•Pigeon•Pony Express
Mass
Mediated
1:Many•Newspaper•Magazine
•Film•Radio
•TV
InteractiveInteractive
VirtualVirtualAny 1:Every 1
Networking: many-to-many
Internet•WiFi
•Cellular•Satellite
The INFOSPHERE
22ndnd Wave Wave
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Qualitative Evolution:
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Web 1.0 (‘90’s)
Sites = read-only static pages & files
.. click a page & wait. Sites were huge, bloated & buggy
The paradigm=l folders & directories…
Marketing rooted in Mass Media Techniques
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Web 1.0 vs. 2.0
Web 1.0passive user=
Only Click& Get
Web 2.0 “content” shared –
interactive Exchange;
“Read” Mode “Write” & Contribute
“Page” Primary content “Post / record”
“static” State “dynamic”
Web browser Viewed through… Browsers & RSS Readers
“Client Server” Architecture “Web Services”
Web Coders Content Created by… Everyone
“geeks” Domain of… “masses”
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• Enrich the structure of the Webo Improve -search, collaboration, publishing, advertising
oEnables applications -more integrated & intelligent
• Transform Web from fileserver to database
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The semantic web connects: Information1 + People2 + Everything else3…..
People
Groups
EmailsCompanies
Products
Services
Web Pages
Multimedia
Documents
Events
Projects
Activities
Interests
Places
Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-
Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-
Evolution Web 1.0, Web 2.0 to Web 3.0
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The semantic web
Microformats……pieces
of code that allow the
browser to interpret the
data intelligently.
Intro to the Sematic Web -for noobs
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Resource Description Framework (RDF) / W3C Semantic Web Activity
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The Symbiotic Age A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.” A time when our technologies are
very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving each other.
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Current Marketing Issues Seminar
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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2nd Wave vs. 3rd Wave Marketing
3rd Wave-CRMarketing3rd Wave-CRMarketing
Focuses on Share of CustomerFocuses on Share of Customer
Develops CustomersDevelops Customers
Finds Products for CustomersFinds Products for Customers
2nd Wave-Mass Marketing2nd Wave-Mass Marketing
Focuses on Share of MarketFocuses on Share of Market
Develops ProductsDevelops Products
Finds Customers for ProductsFinds Customers for Products
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Dramatic Shift in Marketing Reality
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Currently moving on to next iteration of
Principles & Practices of Marketing Evolving from
E- Commerce … to We – Commerce … to
Me- Commerce …
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Marketing 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 (YouTube)
3rd Wave:Sub-Waves
1.0: ~<-’04 2.0: ~’04-’11 3.0: ’11 ~”??
PrimaryFocus
Product-Centered
Customer- Oriented
Values-driven
Mrktg Comm Target
Mind:Sell-Product attributes
Heart:Sell-How Product will make you feel
Spirit:Sell-How Product Benefits You & World
Principal Objective
creating economic value
creating personal value
creating Societal value
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Specialized
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority..... Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity....... Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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The SocioSphereThe SocioSphere
Element 1st wave 2nd wave 3rd wave
Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual
Family Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist Mass/ Standardized
LifeLong
Business Ind./Partn. Corp. Conglom
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W/ Divorce of Production & Consumption— Relationships became set of transactions
Society not based on kinship, friendship, tribal allegiances- but on contracts
2nd wave emergence of the Company Man
RelationshipsRelationships
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The Family:From Mother Hubbard to Ozzie & Harriet to Octo-Mom
1st Wave: Extended Family--Aunts & Uncles; Grand Pa & Ma: In-laws & In-breds under one roof
2nd Wave: Nuclear Norm (working Pa, housekeeping Ma + 2kids, a dog & BBQ) everybody else own unit or institutionalized
3rd Wave: Aggregate HH’s: Mother-Other; Poly-Parents By 1980’s: <7% US-HH’s nuclear; 20% Single, 1:7 single Mom (1:4 Urban); in one Chicago neighborhood 86 different adult configurations…
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Education:From Athens, to Ohio State to Phoenix
1st Wave: For Privileged
2nd Wave: For Masses: w/ Standardized Curricula Texts & Tests w/ Bell Curve
3rd Wave: For Individual Life-Long/ Personalized in Time & Mode of delivery
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Specialized
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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Meta-convergence:
“the tightening of connections among spheres that have hitherto been more
independent”"Culture, religion, politics, environment, ethics, are all going to interpenetrate one another to an extent never
before seen, and they will, in turn, penetrate business in all sorts of strange new ways…“
Riding the third wave: A conversation with Alvin Toffler
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The 21st Century- Spherical Meta The 21st Century- Spherical Meta ConvergenceConvergence
Ecological impactEcological impactLabor conditionsLabor conditions
PollutionPollutionHealth & safety concernsHealth & safety concerns
Human rights abusesHuman rights abusesChild laborChild labor
Working in-w/ anti-democratic Working in-w/ anti-democratic regimesregimes
GlobalizationGlobalization
-Industry & Business
Associations
Corporate, activist – Shareholder organizations
-NGO’s- IMF, WTO, World Bank
-Religious & Secular Groups
-Local, State & National Gov’t
Agencies
-Special Interest & Affinity groups
ILO-list 450+ Activist Org.
W3-sites “promulgati
ng policy initiatives”
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“--- want max profit for shareholders…with honesty in business practices,…safety in the workplace, ..and also serve larger environmental & social issues.”
“--- want max profit for shareholders…with honesty in business practices,…safety in the workplace, ..and also serve larger environmental & social issues.”
Today's Managers must balance the bottom-line
against the ideals –
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The only business of business is business--
Milton Friedman
The only business of business is business--
Milton Friedman
…to the extent that customers express satisfaction in a product or a service, in continued purchases, the producer serves the "public interest."
A successful business satisfies enough customers at a high enough price so as to return a profit to those who have invested in the entrepreneurial activity…
Stark Contrast w/ 2nd wave Mantra:
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Specialized
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
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Generational Imprint as we Come of age
Each generation molded by world events that occur during its formative years.
… distinct historical experiences create characteristics that stay w/ people thruout rest of their lives
Each generation molded by world events that occur during its formative years.
… distinct historical experiences create characteristics that stay w/ people thruout rest of their lives
Generational Marketing: Reaching the Hearts and Minds of Consumershttp://circman.com/ar/marketing_generational_marketing_reaching/
Generational Marketing: Reaching the Hearts and Minds of Consumershttp://circman.com/ar/marketing_generational_marketing_reaching/
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February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 76
Generational Life ExperiencesCalled “Markers”
Values are shaped by:
EventsCulturePoliticsEconomyTechnologyPersonalities
EventsCulturePoliticsEconomyTechnologyPersonalities
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Common ExperiencesCommon
Experiences
Common AIO’s, values, tastes, style...
Common AIO’s, values, tastes, style...
Common responses
to marketing mix
variables
Common responses
to marketing mix
variables
•Generational mindsets … are major factors in determining
what & how consumers buy…
The notion a group of people bound together by sharing experience of common historical events 1st introduced by Karl Mannheim - early 1920s
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Generations Variously Named & Dated:
1. Matures – < 1946 2. Baby Boomer – 1946-1953 3. Generation Jones – 1954-1964 4. Generation Rerun – 1965-1975 5. Generation Xceptional – 1976-1986 6. Generation M – 1987-1995 7. Millennials – 1996 and beyond
1. Matures – < 1946 2. Baby Boomer – 1946-1953 3. Generation Jones – 1954-1964 4. Generation Rerun – 1965-1975 5. Generation Xceptional – 1976-1986 6. Generation M – 1987-1995 7. Millennials – 1996 and beyond
Depression cohort (1912 to 1921)
WWII cohort (1922 to 1927)
Post-war cohort (1928 to 1945)
Baby Boomer cohort #1 (1946 to 1954)
Baby Boomer cohort #2 1955 to 1965)
Generation X cohort (1965 to 1976)
N Generation cohort (1977 to date)
Depression cohort (1912 to 1921)
WWII cohort (1922 to 1927)
Post-war cohort (1928 to 1945)
Baby Boomer cohort #1 (1946 to 1954)
Baby Boomer cohort #2 1955 to 1965)
Generation X cohort (1965 to 1976)
N Generation cohort (1977 to date)
THE GI GENERATION: 1901-1924THE SILENT GENERATION: 1925-1942BABY BOOMERS: 1943-1960 GENERATION X: 1961-1981GENERATION Y: 1982-PRESENT
THE GI GENERATION: 1901-1924THE SILENT GENERATION: 1925-1942BABY BOOMERS: 1943-1960 GENERATION X: 1961-1981GENERATION Y: 1982-PRESENT
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Waves of change affect Waves of change affect different generations in different generations in
different waysdifferent ways
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1925 1955 20001965 19751935 198519601945
GI
Depression
Boomer
SilentGen
XWar Baby
Rode the Last Wave
Caught Between Waves
Gen Y
Grow Up w/ New Wave
Riding the wave
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For the X &Y generations: Increasingly weaned in & imprinted on post-industrial “3rd wave” society
For the X &Y generations: Increasingly weaned in & imprinted on post-industrial “3rd wave” society
Gen X cohort
Psyche : quest for emotional security, independent, informality
(Y) Millennium Generation
Psyche : quest for physical security & safety, extreme patriotism, heightened fears, acceptance of change
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February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 82
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February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 83
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Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological
Key Commodity Land Capital Data
TechnoSphere
Energy.......
Man-imal Fossil Bio-Tech
Technology..... Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic
Production........ Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive
Distribution..... Restricted Mass Disintermediated
Marketing 1:1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric
InfoSphere Communication
Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive
SocioSphere Relationships
Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked
Business Indiv./Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc
Family............ Extended Nuclear Expanded
Education Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long
PowerSphere Authority.....
Inherent Elected Semi-direct
PsychoSphere Identity.......
Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered
Completely
Different Society
Completely
Different Operating
Principles
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Old EconomyOld Economy – Manufacturing driven
New EconomyNew Economy – Information driven
Standardization & Duplication
Economies of Scale- Mrkt Share/sales volume
Hierarchical -Bureaucratic
Differentiation & customization
Economies of Scope- Versatility –Long Tail Inventories, Marginal Prdtn & Dist. Costs; Networked Customer base
Diversified -Adhocracy
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2ND WAVE DISTRIBUTION
Sales rate volatilityProduction rate volatility
Completely Physical, Highly Intermediated Supply-Chain of Silos…
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Supply chain management substitutes information for inventory
Supply chain management substitutes information for inventory
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Production Growth Volatility
Sales Growth Volatility
Standard Deviation, 10-yr Moving Average
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Goods & Services Goods & Services Sold ; DistributedSold ; DistributedOnline Online
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“There’s a new economy out there – and it looks nothing like the old one”
January 3, 2000, page S1
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At Least Ten Key Differences
At Least Ten Key Differences
1. Tangible assets
2. Rigid-Vertical Org.
3. Protected markets
4. Competition
5. Distribution hierarchy
6. Rigid barriers
7. Standardization
8. Domestic
9. Prdt-Life Cycle=Years
10. Seller power
1. Tangible assets
2. Rigid-Vertical Org.
3. Protected markets
4. Competition
5. Distribution hierarchy
6. Rigid barriers
7. Standardization
8. Domestic
9. Prdt-Life Cycle=Years
10. Seller power
1. Intangible assets
2. Fluid & Modular
3. Open markets
4. Hypercompetition
5. Direct to customer
6. Flexible entry
7. Personalization
8. Global
9. PLC=months
10. Buyer power
1. Intangible assets
2. Fluid & Modular
3. Open markets
4. Hypercompetition
5. Direct to customer
6. Flexible entry
7. Personalization
8. Global
9. PLC=months
10. Buyer power
Old EconomyOld EconomyOld EconomyOld Economy New EconomyNew EconomyNew EconomyNew Economy
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“The new economy is not just a dot.com thing.
It’s not just about high tech, computers or microchips.
- it is about new ways of doing things in every industry, every government.
It’s about speed, quality, flexibility, knowledge and networks. It will affect everything.”(Collaborative Economics)
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http://www.tompeters.com/reimagine/index.php
“We are in the midst of redefining our basic
ideas about what enterprise &
organization & even being human are
about -- how value is created -- how careers
are pursued”-2006
A prediction:
“At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we
know them today, will either disappear or
be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just
the next few years.
White-collar employment as we've known it
is dead. Job security as we've known it is
over. Over and gone”
A prediction:
“At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we
know them today, will either disappear or
be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just
the next few years.
White-collar employment as we've known it
is dead. Job security as we've known it is
over. Over and gone”
The forces of next great wave The forces of next great wave of change—are evident:of change—are evident:
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Re-imagine!: Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age
“ -- that shift will accelerate as technological change accelerates…”
“It's all so strange and different that I don't even know what a superlative for it would be…”
tompeters.com
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February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 94
• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets
• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets
Likely jobs w/in next 10 yearsLikely jobs w/in next 10 years
Have Existed since 2003
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Within a quarter century, non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence
In near future even have/need jobs?
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The Singularity is Near
*Kurzweil Explains the Coming Singularity
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This past week!
technology will replace 80 percent of doctors
The future of work in America
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The Singularity
2045: The Year Man Becomes ImmortalBy Lev Grossman
Feb. 10, 2011
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How Accurate are suchPredictions & Depictions?
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“Technological
Progress” is indeed
Very Predictable !
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Every 18 months- double CPU power- for ½ the price (Moore’s Law)
Every 12 months double fiber network capacity for ½ the price
Every 9 months double wireless capacity for ½ the price
Every 18 months- double CPU power- for ½ the price (Moore’s Law)
Every 12 months double fiber network capacity for ½ the price
Every 9 months double wireless capacity for ½ the price
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SCIENCE | August 31, 2010 Advances Offer Path to Shrink Computer Chip
Researchers report can overcome barrier to the continued rapid miniaturization of computer memory.
The announcements significant -- preserves validity- Moore’s Law -- industry has ability to double number transistors printed on a wafer of silicon every 18 months.
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- observed time intervals between significant techno-advances ….
3 million years ago collective rock throwing; early stone use
1.5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane
500,000 years ago control of fire
50,000 years ago bow and arrow; fine tools
5,000 years ago wheel and axle; sail
500 years ago printing press with movable type; rifle
60 years ago commercial digital computers
15 years ago commercial internet
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Singularit
y
“Progress”
Not only
Predictable
… it is
Exponential
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The
Law of Accelerating Returns
explains why
TECHNOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY processes
progress in an exponential fashion
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Years Ago
Billions
12 Big Bang (MEST)
11.5 Milky Way (Atoms)
8 Sun (Energy)
4.5 Earth (Molecules)
3.5 Bacteria (Cell)
2.5 Sponge (Body)
0.7 Clams (Nerves)
0.5 Trilobites (Brains)
0.2 Bees (Swarms)
0.100 Mammals
0.002 Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution
Generations Ago
100,000 Speech
750 Agriculture
500 Writing
400 Libraries
40 Universities
24 Printing
16 Accurate Clocks
5 Telephone
4 Radio
3 Television
2 Computer
1 Internet
0 AI & Nano-tech
PhysicalTechnological
BIOLOGICAL –mirrors- TECHNOLOGICAL evolution
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Law of Accelerating Returns
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Law of Acceleration