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CUNA Economic Update August 2018 Jordan van Rijn, Senior Economist

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Page 1: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

CUNA Economic Update

August 2018

Jordan van Rijn,

Senior Economist

Page 2: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

CUNA Economic Update is sponsored by

Page 3: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

-2.8

2.5

1.6

2.21.7

2.62.9

1.5

2.3 2.2

4.1

3.02.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018Forecast

2019Forecast

U.S. Economic GrowthPercent Changes in GDP

Source: BEA

Page 5: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

6.7

1.2

-1.2

1.2

4.8

7.3

10.4 10.5 10.610.0

9.69.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1(YOY)

2018Forecast

2019Forecast

Credit Union Loan GrowthPercent Changes

Source: NCUA and CUNA

Page 6: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)
Page 7: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)
Page 8: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

Components of Compensation: Credit Unions vs. Banks

72.961.7

7.524.3

9.66.2

10.0 7.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Credit Union Bank

Tota

l C

om

pe

nsa

tio

n (

%)

Base Salary Performance-based Retirement & Deferred Other Income

Page 9: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)
Page 10: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

$6.5

$7.7

$8.6

$9.1

$9.3

$10.1

$11.8

$14.0

$19.0

$43.7

$76.1

$0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0

UBS

Goldman Sachs

Morgan Stanley

Credit Suisse

BNP Paribas

RBS

Wells Fargo

Deutsche Bank

Citigroup

JPMorgan Chase

Bank of America

Total Fines Paid at Biggest Banks 2008 - 2017Billions of Dollars

Source: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Page 11: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)
Page 12: CUNA Economic Update › uploadedFiles › Global › About...6.7 1.2-1.2 1.2 4.8 7.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 (YOY)

CUNA Economic Update is sponsored by