Cumbria Health Protection Board

Weekly COVID-19 SummaryWeek 48 (Ending Friday 27th November)

Summary Produced Wednesday 2nd December

Produced By Cumbria Resilience Multi Agency Intelligence Cell (MAIC) 1

Weekly Summary: Key points Week 48 (Ending Friday 27th November)

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Cases & Demographics

• There were 404 new cases in Cumbria (a 454 decrease, -53%, from 858 cases in previous week);

• For the 6th week in a row Carlisle had the greatest number of new cases (+116 new cases);

• Carlisle also had the highest rate of new cases (107 new cases per 100k population);

• However, Carlisle’s rate was below both the national and regional average rates (England = 157 and North West = 158 new cases per 100k

population respectively);

• Numbers of new cases decreased from week 47 in all Cumbrian districts, with the greatest proportional decreases seen in South Lakeland and

Carlisle (-63% and -61% respectively);

• In week 48, the 45-59 age group accounted for the greatest number of new cases in Cumbria. However, there have been decreases in numbers

of new cases in all age groups over the last week.

Health & Hospitalisations

• The number of new patients admitted with COVID-19 Positive status in both North Cumbria Integrated Care (NCIC) and University Hospitals of

Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust (UHMB) decreased from the previous week;

• The average number of patients with COVID-19 in hospital beds in NCIC and UHMB also decreased slightly from the previous week.

Mortality

• Number of deaths due to COVID-19 increased to 31 (up to week 47) from 24 in the previous week

Impact on Sectors

• Numbers of outbreaks and incidents across all education settings decreased;

• School attendance levels in open schools remain stable and remain above the national average;

• Numbers of outbreaks in Care Homes continue to decrease across the county.

R estimates & Growth Rates NHS Region

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Region RGrowth rate %

per day

England 0.9-1.0 -2 to +1

East of England 0.9-1.1 -1 to +2

London 1.0-1.1 +0 to +2

Midlands 0.9-1.1 -2 to +1

North East and Yorkshire 0.8-1.0 -3 to 0

North West 0.7-0.9 -5 to -2

South East 1.0-1.2 0 to +3

South West 0.9-1.1 -2 to +2

Source: gov.uk. Friday 27 November 2020.

North Cumbria falls within the North East and

Yorkshire region.

The values are shown as a range, the most likely true

values are somewhere towards the middle of this range.

*Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in

transmission across the region means these estimates are

insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.

Cases

4Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result

Key Points for Cumbria’s districts in Week 48:

• There were 404 new cases in Cumbria (a 454 decrease, -53%, from 858 cases in previous week);

• For the 6th week in a row Carlisle had the greatest number of new cases (+116 new cases);

• Carlisle also had the highest rate of new cases (107 new cases per 100k population);

• However, Carlisle’s rate was below both the national and regional average rates (England = 157 and North West = 158 new casesper 100k

population respectively);

• Numbers of new cases decreased from week 47 in all Cumbrian districts, with the greatest proportional decreases seen in SouthLakeland and

Carlisle (-63% and -61% respectively).

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Cumbria Cases

Source: PHE (data represents the number of people with a positive test result)

Pillar 2 Testing Available2nd Lockdown from 5th Nov

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District CasesCarlisle had the greatest number of new cases in week 48.

However, numbers of new cases decreased from week 47 in all Cumbrian districts.

.

Source: PHE (data represents the number of people with a positive test result)

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Rate of Cases Per 100,000 Population

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Data represents the number of people with a

positive test result per 100k population.

Carlisle and South Lakeland’s rates have

decreased over the last week to move well

below the national and regional average rates.

As of week 48, the rates of all Cumbrian districts

were below both the regional and national

average rates.

Daily Lab-Confirmed Cases – Pillar 1 & 2[Preliminary up to 30 November]

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21-Nov-20 22-Nov-20 23-Nov-20 24-Nov-20 25-Nov-20 26-Nov-20 27-Nov-20 28-Nov-20 29-Nov-20 30-Nov-20

Cumbria 63 53 78 57 58 44 50 30 27 66

Allerdale 9 15 12 7 14 13 11 4 5 8

Barrow-in-Furness 9 5 12 7 7 4 5 8 6 10

Carlisle 15 9 28 18 18 15 12 5 1 18

Copeland 4 9 5 8 2 5 7 2 1 8

Eden 7 7 4 5 4 0 1 4 1 5

South Lakeland 19 8 17 12 13 7 14 7 13 17

[Data is subject to revisions; most recent days are provisional and likely to increase as lab results are processed]

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Last updated on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 4:00pm]

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Cases by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA)Seven–day rolling rate of new cases by specimen date ending on 25 Nov 2020

Last updated on Monday 30 November 2020 at 4:00pm

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

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Cases by Age Group

Source: PHE (data represents the number of people with a positive test result)

In week 48, the 45-59 age group accounted for the greatest number of new cases in Cumbria.

However, there have been decreases in numbers of new cases in all age groups over the last week.

Hospitalisations

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To week ending Tuesday 1st December:

• The number of new patients admitted with

COVID-19 Positive status in both North

Cumbria Integrated Care (NCIC) and

University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS

Foundation Trust (UHMB) decreased from the

previous week;

• The average number of patients with COVID-

19 in hospital beds in NCIC and UHMB also

decreased slightly from the previous week.

Source: NHS Daily Sit Rep Submissions.

Please be aware that the data is collected

as a ‘sitrep’ on the day and is not refined

retrospective reporting data. It is

susceptible to error caused by delays in

data entry and as simple admin errors.

There is no mechanism for updating or

correcting any such occurrences with

NHSE/i - the prime recipient.

Mortality: Cumbria Weekly Registered Deaths to Week 47 (up to 20 November 2020)

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Source: Office for National Statistics