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Citi 23 rd Annual Transportation Conference November 2008 Citi 23 rd Annual Transportation Conference November 2008

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Page 1: csx  2008_Citigroup Conference

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Citi 23rd AnnualTransportation Conference

November 2008

Citi 23rd AnnualTransportation Conference

November 2008

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Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure

This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: www.investors.csx.com

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Current CSX environment . . .Current CSX environment . . .

Financial momentum remains strong— Momentum has been sustained in declining volume environment

Economic environment is weakening— Housing and auto sectors remain weak, industrial sector softening

Fundamentals of the Rail Renaissance remain intact— Line-of-sight maintained on key drivers

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Core focus is driving shareholder value creationCore focus is driving shareholder value creation

Deliver sustainable revenue growth through focus on same store sales price increases

Incorporate escalators to offset the cost of inflation during the period of the contract

Recover the higher cost of diesel fuel through fuel surcharge program

Price

Focus on sustainable growth by leveraging our market presence in all eastern markets

Drive industrial development to locate new shippers on CSX’s transportation network

Leverage rail-truck interfaces to expand market/customer reach beyond traditional rail business

Growth

Drive greater cost efficiency through redesigning processes and deploying technology

Use ONE Plan and Total Service Integration to right-size resources to business levels

Deliver total savings that offset a significant portion of annual cost of non-fuel inflation

Productivity

Operating IncomeOperating IncomeOperating Income EPSEPSEPS Free Cash FlowFree Cash FlowFree Cash Flow ROICROICROIC

Balanced Deployment of Capital

Top-Tier TSRTop-Tier TSR

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Operating IncomeDollars in BillionsOperating IncomeDollars in Billions

$1.6

$2.0$2.2

$2.7

2005 2006 2007 LTM

EarningsPer ShareEarningsPer Share

Return onInvested Capital

Return onInvested Capital

$1.70

$2.22

$2.70

$3.48

2005 2006 2007 LTM

7.3%

8.8% 9.2%

10.6%

2005 2006 2007 LTM

CSX’s financial momentum remains strongCSX’s financial momentum remains strong

Note: Operating Income, EPS and ROIC are stated on comparable continuing basis; LTM through third quarter 2008

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Economic environment continues to weakenEconomic environment continues to weaken

Real Gross Domestic Product

(10.0%)

(8.0%)

(6.0%)

(4.0%)

(2.0%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Note: Recessionary periods as defined by Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Line-of-sight maintained on key driversLine-of-sight maintained on key drivers

Volume environment remains soft— Diversity of business portfolio moderates economic impact

Pricing momentum to continue long-term— Increases to be broadly similar in 2009 and above inflation longer-term

Productivity initiatives continue to help offset inflation— Results ahead of target in 2008 with strong momentum through 2010

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Largest recent cumulative volume decline was 6%Largest recent cumulative volume decline was 6%

Annual Volume Growth

(1%)

(5%)

1%

(1%)

2% 2%

(0%)

3%

0%

15%

11%

(3%)(0%)

3% 2%

(1%)

0%

(3%) (3%)

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08

Note: 1990-93 data includes Sea-Land volumes and all data is on 52-week comparable basis; 2008 data is through week 46

Recession Recession

6%Cumulative

Decline

3%Cumulative

Decline

6%Cumulative

Decline

CurrentEnvironment

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Diversity of business moderates economic impactDiversity of business moderates economic impact

Primary Macro Driver CSX Business Units % of Revenue

Energy and Agriculture Coal, Agricultural Products, and Phosphates & Fertilizers

43%

Housing Starts Forest Products, Emerging Markets, and Food & Consumer

17%

Industrial Production Chemicals and Metals 20%

Personal Consumption Intermodal and Automotive 20%

Note: Year-to-date data through third quarter 2008

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Energy and agriculture products more stable Energy and agriculture products more stable

Limited downside for utility demand

Export coal downside sensitivity exists

Growth in ethanol continues

Potential phosphate rebound in spring

Energyand Food

43% Coal

Agriculture

PhosphatesForestEmerging MktsFood/Consumer

Chemicals

Metals

Intermodal

Automotive

2008 Revenue Base

30%30%

9%4%4%

Percent of Revenue

Note: Reflects year-to-date data through third quarter 2008

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2.071.81

1.340.93

0.71

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Softness in housing-related markets continuesSoftness in housing-related markets continues

Housing rebound expected after 2009

Further decline in forest and paper

Related consumer products remain soft

Infrastructure spending potential upside

Coal

Agriculture

PhosphatesForestEmerging MktsFood/Consumer

Chemicals

Metals

Intermodal

Automotive

Housing Starts17%

2008 Revenue Base

7%6%6%4%

Percent of Revenue

Housing Starts in Millions

Note: Reflects year-to-date data through third quarter 2008; economic data is sourced from Global Insight

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Weaker industrial sector impacts chemicals/metalsWeaker industrial sector impacts chemicals/metals

Coal

Agriculture

PhosphatesForestEmerging MktsFood/Consumer

Chemicals

Metals

Intermodal

Automotive

IndustrialProduction

20%

2008 Revenue Base

13%

7%

Percent of Revenue

3.3%2.2% 1.7%

(0.9%)

(3.5%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Industrial production weak through 2009

Global steel demand is declining

Chemicals demand is also declining

Industrial Production

Note: Reflects year-to-date data through third quarter 2008; economic data is sourced from Global Insight

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Lower consumer spending impacts auto/intermodalLower consumer spending impacts auto/intermodal

Note: Reflects year-to-date data through third quarter 2008; economic data is sourced from Global Insight

Coal

Agriculture

PhosphatesForestEmerging MktsFood/Consumer

Chemicals

Metals

Intermodal

AutomotivePersonalConsumption

20%

2008 Revenue Base

13%

7%

Percent of Revenue

3.8% 3.9% 3.3%

(1.5%) (1.3%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Vehicle production continues to decline

International intermodal remains soft

Domestic intermodal source of strength

Personal Consumption

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Line-of-sight maintained on key driversLine-of-sight maintained on key drivers

Volume environment remains soft— Diversity of business portfolio moderates economic impact

Pricing momentum to continue long-term— Increases to be broadly similar in 2009 and above inflation longer-term

Productivity initiatives continue to help offset inflation— Results ahead of target in 2008 with strong momentum through 2010

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Pricing has remained strong despite lower volumesPricing has remained strong despite lower volumes

Volume Versus Same Store Sales Pricing

6.2% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2%

(1.0%)0.1% (0.4%)

(3.9%)(2.3%)

(4.3%)(2.7%) (2.2%) (2.8%) (2.3%)

1.8%

Q12006

Q22006

Q32006

Q42006

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Price Increase on 'Same Store Sales' Change in Volume

Note: ‘Same Store Sales’ price increases exclude impacts from fuel and mix; reflects year over year change

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Majority of pricing plan is already in place for 2009Majority of pricing plan is already in place for 2009

Same Store Sales Price Increase

5.7%

6.6% 6.7% 6.5%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

SignedContractsSigned

Contracts

ContractsStill To BeNegotiated

~ 6.0%

Note: Annual same store sales price increases reflect the quarterly average for each respective year

45%

55%

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Inflation-Adjusted PricingIndexed: 1981 = 100

100

4051

1981 2004 2008

1717

Pricing above inflation will continue long-termPricing above inflation will continue long-term

Rail pricing is still in the early stages of recovery

Significant contracts are up for renewal annually

Trucking industry challenges will continue long-term

Rail reinvestment requiresearning the cost of capital

Source: Association of American Railroads

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Line-of-sight maintained on key driversLine-of-sight maintained on key drivers

Volume environment remains soft— Diversity of business portfolio moderates economic impact

Pricing momentum to continue long-term— Increases to be broadly similar in 2009 and above inflation longer-term

Productivity initiatives continue to help offset inflation— Results ahead of target in 2008 with strong momentum through 2010

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Over $400M of productivity targeted through 2010Over $400M of productivity targeted through 2010

Operations ProductivityDollars in Millions

$90

$40

$153

2008 2009 2010

Plans in Place Developing Plans

Initiatives are exceeding initial targets for 2008

Plans already in place for 85% of 2009-2010 targets

Productivity focus is driving greater labor/asset efficiency

$130 $130

$413 million

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Productivity driven by accountability across areasProductivity driven by accountability across areas

Operations Productivity Savings in Millions

20082008 20092009 20102010 TotalTotal

Locomotive $ 57 $ 45 $ 37 $ 139

Car and Terminal 33 23 14 70

Line of Road and Infrastructure 31 34 23 88

Train and Engine Employees 25 15 10 50

Customer Operations 4 3 3 10

Risk Mitigation and Other 3 11 42 56

Total SavingsTotal Savings $ 153$ 153 $ 130$ 130 $ 130$ 130 $ 413$ 413

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ONE Plan being updated to drive greater efficiencyONE Plan being updated to drive greater efficiency

Traffic patterns have shifted since ONE Plan inception

Volume declines allow for further train consolidation

Focus remains maximizing service and efficiency — Rightsize resources

— Reduce terminal handlings

— Reduce route miles

TrafficIncrease

TrafficDecrease

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Other productivity initiatives are underwayOther productivity initiatives are underway

Total Service Integration is improving train utilization

Broader cost initiatives will drive further margin expansion

— Leverage GPS technology to further improve asset utilization

— Expand use of terminal automation technology

Enterprise Asset Management takes productivity to next level

Pipeline ServiceTons Per Train

8,6388,800

9,223

9,584

2005 2006 2007 2008YTD

11%Improvement

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G&A effort designed to keep 2009 costs flat to 2007G&A effort designed to keep 2009 costs flat to 2007

Controllable G&A ExpensesDollars in Millions

$45

$39

$39 $45

2007 Pro Forma Cycle ProxyCosts

Productivity 2009

Controllable G&A Inflation Proxy Costs Productivity

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Line-of-sight maintained on key driversLine-of-sight maintained on key drivers

Volume environment remains soft— Diversity of business portfolio moderates economic impact

Pricing momentum to continue long-term— Increases to be broadly similar in 2009 and above inflation longer-term

Productivity initiatives continue to help offset inflation— Results ahead of target in 2008 with strong momentum through 2010

Supports strong Free Cash Flow and liquidity

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Free Cash Flow and liquidity will remain strongFree Cash Flow and liquidity will remain strong

Free Cash Flow Before Dividends in Millions

$376

$1,000

2007 2008F

Core earnings growth and Free Cash Flow sustainable— Supports continued investment

and competitive dividend yield

Balance sheet remains strong with significant liquidity— Only $400 million of outstanding

debt matures through 2010

Drive towards high-60’s operating ratio continues— Earnings guidance challenged

by current environment

Approximately

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Wrap-up . . .Wrap-up . . .

Financial momentum to continue through the cycle— Line-of-sight maintained on volume, pricing and productivity

Current economic weakness is transitory— Past periods sustained for three to five quarters before recovery takes hold

Plans in place position CSX for strong recovery— Stronger service, productivity and investments will drive future growth

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Citi 23rd Annual Transportation Conference

November 2008

Citi 23rd Annual Transportation Conference

November 2008