csc bloomberg commodities talk mar 2012

CSC Proprietary and Confidential 1/23/2013 10:17 PM PPT 2007_Planning_FMT 1

Climate Informatics Services for Global Commodities

Bloomberg LP

March 1, 2012


Market Opportunity Reinsurance catastrophe risk management


Market Opportunity Commercial Application of Climate Informatics

Industry shift from reacting to weather/climate to becoming proactive regarding climate informatics decision making.

Weather and climate information as a tool

for decision making:

• Energy Prices/Supply

• Agriculture Prices/Supply

• Crop Potential & Losses

• Long Range Drought Assessment

• Hurricane Frequency and Severity

• Water Resource Planning

• Food Security & Prices

• One input in a holistic global macro

strategy


Market Opportunity New Tools & Techniques for an Old Problem

• The forecasting sector has focused on improving the skill associated with extreme event identification by extending short range forecasts forward; new methods are needed.

• ‘Traditional’ risk management methods introduce significant error. A Climate Data Service model will provide a data-driven approach coupled with subject matter expertise to better identify and quantify commodity price risk.


El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Source: JISAO

Source: BOM

Arctic Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation

Source: CPC

Source: CPC

Solution Framework for Climate Data Services Develop Seasonal Outlooks with New Indices to Supplement those already identified


• “Today analytics is moving to center stage as more

people can access the tools and analyze all the data,

leveraging data from multiple sources and unleashing

the power of a distributed grid of computing resources

to do the heavy lifting involved with the analysis.”

• “. . . many of today’s analytics are using ‘in-database’

techniques that are faster and more efficient because

the data are not moved to a separate analytics server”

CSC Climate Data as a Service


Blend approaches using Reanalysis

Source: NASA

Goddard Space

Flight Center,

MERRA

MERRA:

28 Physical

Parameters

1979-present


MERRA 2D:

Publicly available,

265 Physical

Parameters

200TB of EO data

1979-present


MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for Risk Management


Tier 1 offering

• Identify and extract NASA

data, including maps

• Initially, primary source

will be MERRA/GEOS-5

• Create database with

maps/data that will

routinely be used

• Perform ongoing research

into testing and building

models/indices with NASA

reanalysis data.

• Use subject matter expertise to

perform analysis of data/maps

• Create reports based on conclusions

about future impact on general subject

area (agriculture, energy, etc.)

•Provide through

Bloomberg Financial

Terminal for free

Repeat monthly, following publication of new monthly reanalysis maps, update market assumptions and publish discussions in monthly reports.


Tier 2 offering

• Develop interface that

collects identified maps/data

from NASA archives and

makes them available in an

automated format

• Once monthly reports have

some history, additional data

sources will be incorporated

into analysis

Provide via subscription

service

oThrough Bloomberg

• More detailed analysis of maps and data

streams.

• Create new indices and models for specific

climate and commodity processes.

• Create reports based on conclusions about

future impact on particular subject area (e.g.

Sugar/Coffee/Cocoa, Grains/Oilseeds,

Dairy, Coal/Oil/Natural Gas)

Additional offerings: •Plan to introduce data streams or direct access to new indices derived from MERRA data •Consultancy type services •White Papers using methodology


Towards the Identification of Weather

Black Swans

• According to the Weather Risk Management Agency, a 2011 study commissioned by

NCAR quoted that routine weather events (wind, rain,etc) has an economic impact of

$485 billion in the US alone. This does not account for extreme events.

• The UN estimates that by 2030, global spending on climate effects (adaptation,

mitigation, etc) will be anywhere between $36 bln to $135 bln per year.

• DATA can help attack this problem

csc bloomberg commodities talk mar 2012

Documents

pm ppt

present csc proprietary

service csc proprietary

climate data services

nasa reanalysis data

climate data service

extract nasa data

reanalysis source