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  • !"#

    $ $

    $ $% !"#$

    & $' # %&

    ' $# ' ()%*

    +*(,+!+!

    &!-(!(+!(!+.!

    +(+&,'-!/!+!!+(

    0-'1!1

    +*(,(2334

  • !,/-&-5,((+/!+(,(0

    !$ $(')!

    !"# #

    6 7

    +

    #,,

    !

    8

    8

    ()9

    ":

    &,;

    (=)=#?7>= 7

    +!;1

  • +*(,+!+!

    &!-(!(+!(!+.!

    +(+&,'-!/!+!!+(

    0-'1!1

    +*(,(2334

  • 1. TABLA DE CONTENIDO

    @1 -(!+-(+4

    21 +-,

    !!+ A

    B1 ,((+ C

    41 -,!- C

    D1 "(-*E

    D1@1"(-*0(+(, E

    D121"(-*(%(!&! E

    F1 "-&!!.+ @3

    A1 !+!((%9(-( @3

    C1 !+!(%-'! @@

    C1@1G9#H @@

    C121G9#H @@

    C1B1G9#7!H@2

    C141G9#7H @2

    C1D1;7!;H @B

    C1F1G!77H @B

    C1A1G9#;H @4

    C1A1@1 0;@4

    C1A121 ;=7 @4

    C1A1B1 0 @D

    C1C1G! ; !2333H @D

    C1E1G9#=7H @D

    C1@31 G9=7=H @F

    E1 *(,+(@F

  • @31 ,(9(,(+-(,5,( @C

    @@1 ,(9(,(+-(&-5,( @C

    @21 !,!,/- @C

    @21@1 G9I!(!,/-H @C

    @2121 G!7;=H @E

    @21B1 G!7!8(6H 23

    @2141 G9#=H 2B

    @2141@1 G!7=H 2B

    @21D1 G!7=7H2A

    @21F1 G!77H 2C

    @21A1 G! 8 = =7H B@

    @21C1 G!7;H BB

    @21E1 G!7=H B4

    @21@31 BF

    @21@31@1 ;& BF

    @21@3121 !=BA

    @21@31B1 %! BA

    @21@3141 !: BC

    @21@31D1 -!:BE

    @21@31F1 !- BE

    @21@31A1 (6= BE

    @21@@1 ("(%(%!!.+((43

    @21@@1@1 %,(,("(%1J&=K 43

    @21@@121 (0+("(%1J*,:K 44

    @B1 !,/-- FC

    @B1@1 8 FE

  • @B1@1@1 :& FE

    @B1@121 7 FE

    @B1@1B1 -!: FE

    @B121 A3

    @B121@1 = A3

    @B12121 (7 A3

    @B121B1 A3

    @B12141 7 A3

    @41 +'((,,(+- A@

    @41@1 8L=-M A@

    @41@1@1 :& A@

    @41@121 7 AD

    @41@1B1 !-!: AE

    @4121 C4

    @4121@1 = C4

    @412121 (#7 CD

    @41B1 (8= CF

    @41B1@1 -;= E3

    @41B121 ED

    @41B1B1 7; @33

    @D1 0,&N/5(0,&N@3A

  • 2. INTRODUCCION

    !=)) > : ) = = 7) ;> ) = =;;#6>; ==1

    (=):):>=!(7 ) = ) 1

    %7=(6O>=87>P ! > : ;

    =7 &! (7>) = = :67=7>=77)) ==1

  • 3. RESUMEN

    # = : 7 ) ; : ; 7 Q = : # ) := = =7 = = 71

    (6 : : = =>7=! = : :> = 7 = ; Q ) = : ; = ) = = 1

    % > : 7> = ; :8 ;> = =; 78 ;Q 7>>>

    4. ABSTRACT

    -:: : : : = =P: :: : : : : :PQ = ::):: =:=R = = : 1

    (6 :; : :>P::!;= : > P : :

  • 5. OBJETIVOS

    5.1. OBJETIVO GENERAL

    !8 :)P!O > ) = = )=;!(7 ; ) = = =7!;&!(1

    5.2. OBJETIVOS ESPECIFICOS

    !8:!)=;7=))1

    $=7;;P!1

    !)=:!O7=;=!(71

  • 6. JUSTIFICACIN

    = 7 == ====; 71= =7 ; PQ ; =T;=7 #==!1

    ! P ) = 7 = =7 => = = >:=71

    (==7>)=6> 7Q ;1

    %#>!$=7 ) 7 8 87=>=7:;==71

    7. ALCANCE DEL PAQUETE

    ( = = =7 >==):)== =7 > =; )= = 71

    ( = ; ) =) : ; > ) =7 = ) # = ) ;= => = 8=;;;1

    ! =7 =7> = = = 1 + = ) =;> ==== 7T1

  • 8. CONCEPTOS BSICOS

    8.1. Qu es riesgo?

    !7=6=;>) = =# #6> = ; 71 =)=);1

    > =; )= =; > = = > )=1

    8.2. Qu es un modelo?

    ==;>7>=7):8==!1

    % == ; = > =)#> ;1

    ! ) = ;= > 7 = > = ) =7 ; = ) 8 7===7>;7=71

  • Ilustracin 1. Ejemplo de Cristal Ball en MS Excel

    ! : 7 ; : = == ) = = = >)) ;;>:=>61

    8.3. Qu es la simulacin Monte Carlo?

    7 ) # ;8 = =71(== =1

    8.4. Qu sucede durante una simulacin?

    7 T= = 8= ; =;; = ; 1 ! 2333 = LM)1

    >!2333 =; L ;7M= ; =# :8 ;81;=; =1

    ( = ;7 ; ) ;1=;7

  • 8.5. De donde obtiene la Simulacin Monte Carlo su nombre?

    7!;!>7>==8Q>>)1

    (=7! ;>= 1 % 8=> ; ) T;@>2>B>4>DF=;= =1 ( = == L=11 =#>=> > 7=>1M

    8.6. Cmo analizar los resultados de una simulacin?

    % :8 => ; > >) 1!2333= =7@1 = =7 >! =7=1

    7=; :>

    @=77)1

  • =;;>==71 7> = =7 ; : ;7 1 =# = ; )1

    Ilustracin 2. Cuadro de dilogo - Define Forecast

    8.7. Qu es la certeza o certidumbre?

    !; =8 ) =7 = 1 %>= =>;#=;=;; 1 ( ! 6 = =1(

    8.7.1. Grafica de sensibilidad:

    %;7=L ;M =7> ) =1 %==G9#;H(;= ; 1

    8.7.2. La grfica de sobreposicin:

    (=T==8>) # :8 1 ( 8 1 ( : = ;G!= ;L MH1

  • 8.7.3. Grfica de tendencia:

    % =7 ) = 6 ; 1 G!7 ; =H

    8.8. Cuales son los beneficios de realizar un anlisis de riesgos con Crystal Ball 2000?

    ! 8 ! :; > = ) = = =1! = >==7:1

    + 6 :8 (6 7!=T= :8 ;>:!1

    ! ;! )1

    ! ! 7 =>):)=1

    8.9. Qu es Optimizacin?

    =7 =) 8 7=7=1+:8=7Q ; #= ;)=L%1(81 0M ) 6 )= ;1

    % 8=> = 7 == ; ;7 = =; ;;1

    !:8>==== (61;==1 ! =9> = ! > = = :; = (6> = ;8

  • ;1 > =9 = ; 7= ; ;=1

    8.10. Que son los pronsticos de series de tiempo?

    =7 =#=7) 8 :7 = = 1 ( :7J=K1

    9. VERSIONES

    ( =) 7 = ! =>) = =5;2> ==;!!1

    !

    (7!L!M

    (7 % ! L ! > !%=9M

    (7%!L!>!%=9>!-;M

    (7 # + = P=#=== $=1 ( = > = = ) =

    2:=??PPP11

  • :;:8!

    (7# !

    *7 ( 7 ;# J 76K> = ) ; 1( 7:;@43=#71

    *7#( 7 #=

    :; $ =# : =1% ) 7; = 1

    -;# 7=;=; 5;1 7 7>):;= A=# 71% =5;7; 7 ==: >;$1

    % = P> >= U:P) ; $1 =) = = )=>);$1

    :=== =

    !%==7=L % % ==1M

    =9>= ;7L %%M

    !-;>===;)=L 7%M

    ! -> =8 7 !

    ! L 7 M 7=: 1=>7=7=1

  • 10. REQUERIMIENTOS DE HARDWARE

    %%) 433M

    F4,

    B3=;

    !U, L( 7!!M

    -8 C336F33 =6 7

    11. REQUERIMIENTOS DE SOFTWARE

    % 8 ! > ; P)=1

    = 5P EC> 5P ( LM>5P+-41355P2333%>5PV%(>5PV%%

    (6EA>2333>2332LV%M>233B1

    (6=D13=1LM

    ;;,413=L= =7==M

    12. COMO USAR CRYSTAL BALL

    12.1. QU HACE CRYSTAL BALL?

    !6==;:8 (6 = 7 = ) P = 8 1!(6>

    = ; =1! > 6=>= ) : = ;1

    ( J5:UK = =

  • 7)=;;T =1

    !=

    %;=; =; :8 1>) =)6==1

    ='& !"$ &>!8=7) =; =;; )1

    8=;8;8=!1

    12.2. Cmo abrir el programa?

    ! P = >:=> ;8; :8 = (6O1 ( =; ; (6 !> ;81

    % = ! :;=87>;8;8=!%:1%;8=!> = : T 1 T = ; =7! :;=1

    =#;=7>!=; ;7! ; ; Q ; >=;;:=7=(6L=):7PM1

    Ilustracin 3 Barra de tareas ejecutando Crystal Ball

    ;! T+!1

  • Ilustracin 4 Ubicacin de Crystal Ball en el men Inicio

    !%:16> ) 8= !1 ( ; 7 = ; = = #1

    % =;) >: )=7 LM ; ;81

    ) LM> ! = >81

    12.3. Cmo Crystal Ball mejora Excel?

    :8 (6 6 : = > = =7 : 1 7 (6 ) > = = Q ) = ;; 1

    !8(6=;

  • = > ;1%! T ;:(61

    Ilustracin 5 Barra de Herramientas de CB

    !=; ;:=== ) :1 = ; = 8 6 =!17T;;=Q 1

    T !( LM> ("(!-, LM !(,,(+-LM1

    Ilustracin 6 Barra de Mens de Excel con CB

    (T!(LM=!1

    Ilustracin 7 Men Cell

    ( T ("(!-, LM> = 1

  • Ilustracin 8 Men Run

    ( T !(,,(+- LM :7>:==(7%!1

    Ilustracin 9 Men CBTools

  • 12.4. Qu es un supuesto?

    ( ) :8 6 ;) = 1; (6= >= = ;1

    ( > ! ; =;;J=K)==;; =; = ;1 ( ; =;; =7 = ; ; 1 !;7===1

    (8==L!%:M>;8 ;> L;# !=0M1

    ( 7 = = ;1

    12.4.1. Cmo definir un supuesto?

    ( = = = = ;>>;); 1

    %8=!%:>=8 ; =) = ; 1

  • Ilustracin 10 Hoja de Calculo del ejemplo CellPhone

    %==;7>L@@M

    : ; ;7 J =K L =M 1;71= ! > ) ; =) L!@@M1

  • Ilustracin 11 Cuadro de dialogo Distribution Gallery

    Ilustracin 12 Distribucin Triangular para la celda B11

    1=) ; T ) = ;8 = =1

  • ==>>6> =;;1 ( = ; ) T > 8=!%:1 U=:; 1% =:;7J=KL=M1

    Ilustracin 13 Celda supuesto % Long Distance (B11)

    ;

    L@3M1 : ; ;7 J=KL=M1:;71

    ;)==:;43> ) = B43 4F31 = 7>; 7231

    Ilustracin 14 Distribucin Normal para la celda B10

    : ; = LM 1 (! ==)1

  • Ilustracin 15 Celda supuesto Actual Minutes (B10)

    (= =7!1

    12.5. Cmo definir un pronstico?

    : ; ! 1 ( =7> ) 7 ) = U=1 =7 ; #> ) Q 0 +> *=+>!=%, 1

    = =7 )1 !! 7> =71= = )81

    ( ) = ;7 &E> = = > = #;>=:;(61

    L! M==7 L@4M1 : ; ;7

    J%7KL&M 1

    % L! @4 &M ; = = =LWM

    Ilustracin 16 Cuadro de dialogo Define Forecast

    !:L! M:;

  • >))=7=!1

    Ilustracin 17 Celda pronostico B14

    :=71

    12.6. Cmo correr una simulacin?

    ! 7 !B = :81()J5:UK= >=; 1

    % => ;) ; U=7 : ;7 J% %K

    L=M ;1

    = = L =M ! ==1

    :BE3!"BBX1

    3 http://www.decisioneering.com/models/beginner.html

  • Il