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Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply Yardeni Research, Inc. January 21, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

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Page 1: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Energy Briefing:Global Crude Oil

Demand & SupplyYardeni Research, Inc.

January 21, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Crude Oil Price 1World Oil Demand & Supply 2-3Oil Demand/Supply Ratio 4Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC 5Crude Oil Output 6Oil Demand: World 7Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD 8-9Oil Demand: G7 10-12Oil Demand: Europe 13Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East 14Oil Demand: Asia 15-16Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe 17Oil Demand: Latin America 18-19Oil Supply: OPEC 20-21Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas 22Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe 23Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East 24Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia 25Oil Supply: Big Producers 26Oil Demand 27-28

Page 3: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201710

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CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*(dollars per barrel)

Brent Crude Oil Price

West Texas IntermediateCrude Oil Price

* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20

-10

0

10

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30

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30

1/20

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*(dollars per barrel)

Spread between Brent and WTICrude Oil Nearby Futures

* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Crude Oil Price

Page 1 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 4: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 3.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766

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96NovWORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Source of DataOil Market Intelligence (OMI)

US Department of Energy (DOE)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766

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(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Supply (DOE)

Oil Demand (OMI)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1765

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97NovWORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Supply (OMI)

Oil Demand (OMI)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.

yardeni.com

World Oil Demand & Supply

Page 2 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 5: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 4.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766

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NovWORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)

Source of DataOil Market Intelligence (OMI)US Department of Energy (DOE)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760

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WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)

Supply (DOE)

Oil Demand (OMI)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760

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WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)

Supply (OMI)

Oil Demand (OMI)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.

yardeni.com

World Oil Demand & Supply

Page 3 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 6: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

Nov

WORLD CRUDEOIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO*

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average of world crude supplySource: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-75

-60

-45

-30

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0

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120

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1.01

1.02

1.03

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Nov

1/20

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(yearly percent change)

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio*

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average world crude supply.** Nearby futures price.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Financial Times.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio

Page 4 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 7: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1724

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Nov

NovCRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)(million barrels per day)

Non-OPEC (57.0)

OPEC (39.0)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1715

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55

65

Jun

Jun

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data)(million barrels per day)

Non-OPEC

Total OPEC

Source: US Department of Energy.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC

Page 5 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 8: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1812

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16

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40NovCRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

(million barrels per day)

OMI

DOE

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1838

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Nov

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)(million barrels per day)

OMI

DOE

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

Crude Oil Output

Page 6 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 9: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760

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96NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

World (95.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-4

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CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

World (2.4)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

Oil Demand: World

Page 7 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 10: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1720

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50

55

Nov

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OECD-34 (46.2)

Non-OECD* (49.0)

* Total excluding OECD-34Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-6

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Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

OECD-34 (1.2)

Non-OECD* (3.5)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* Total excluding OECD-34.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD

Page 8 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 11: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1727

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Nov

NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Old World:US, Western Europe, & Japan

New World:Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-8

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CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

Old World:US, Western Europe, & Japan

New World:Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD

Page 9 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 12: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1730

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36

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32

34

36

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Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OECD G7* (32.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and US territories.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

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Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

United States (19.4)

Western Europe (13.6)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

Oil Demand: G7

Page 10 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 13: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

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5.2

5.4

5.6

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4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

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5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Japan (4.3)

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Canada (2.3)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

Oil Demand: G7

Page 11 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 14: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1711

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13

14

15

11

12

13

14

15

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Europe Big 4*Plus Japan (11.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

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3.2

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1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

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2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Germany (2.4)France (1.7)Italy (1.3)UK (1.5)Spain (1.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Oil Demand: G7

Page 12 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 15: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Other EU* (5.6)

* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Other OECD Europe* (2.4)

* Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

Oil Demand: Europe

Page 13 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 16: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170

5

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15

0

5

10

15

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(millions of barrels per day, 12-month avg)

Asia Excluding China,South Korea, & Japan (13.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

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9.5

10.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Nov

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OPEC*

Middle East

* Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Neutral Zone, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East

Page 14 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 17: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.6

2.2

2.8

3.4

4.0

4.6

5.2

5.8

6.4

7.0

7.6

8.2

8.8

9.4

10.0

10.6

11.2

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.4

4.0

4.6

5.2

5.8

6.4

7.0

7.6

8.2

8.8

9.4

10.0

10.6

11.2NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

China (10.8)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(12-month average, million barrels per day)

India (4.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Oil Demand: Asia

Page 15 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 18: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Australia & New Zealand (1.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

South Korea (2.4)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Oil Demand: Asia

Page 16 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 19: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Former Soviet Union (4.8)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Eastern Europe* (0.7)

* Albania, Bosnia Herzegovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Federal Republic ofYugoslavia, Slovenia, Former Yugoslavia.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe

Page 17 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 20: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Latin America* (6.6)

* Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,Nantilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0

.5

1.0

1.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Latin AmericaExcluding Mexico and Brazil (1.3)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

Oil Demand: Latin America

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Page 21: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Brazil (3.3)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Mexico (2.0)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

Oil Demand: Latin America

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 22: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 37.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1724

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Nov

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: OPEC(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

Nov

DUBAI

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

NovABU DHABI

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Nov

INDONESIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Nov

ALGERIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

Nov

IRAN

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

Nov

ANGOLA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

NovIRAQ

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 23: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 38.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170

1

2

3

4

Nov

KUWAIT(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Nov

QATAR

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.4

.0

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Nov

LIBYA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 176

8

10

12

Nov

SAUDI ARABIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.1

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

Nov

NEUTRAL ZONE

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

NovU.A.E.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Nov

NIGERIA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170

1

2

3

4

Nov

VENEZUELA

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 24: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 39.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 174042444648505254565860

NovCRUDE OIL SUPPLY: NON-OPEC(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

NovCANADA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

Nov

OTHER AMERICAS

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

NovCOLUMBIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172

4

6

8

10

12

NovNON-OPEC NGLs

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

Nov

MEXICO

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

Nov

ARGENTINA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 173

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

NovUNITED STATES

yardeni.com

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3.6.9

1.21.51.82.12.42.73.0

Nov

BRAZIL

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 25: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 40.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172

3

4

5

6

7

8

Nov

EUROPE(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Nov

OTHER EUROPE

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

Nov

NORTH SEA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

Nov

OTHER NORTH SEA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

Nov

NORWAY

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170

1

2

3

Nov

UNITED KINGDOM

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 26: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 41.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 173.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Nov

AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Nov

OTHER AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

Nov

EGYPT

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

Nov

GABON

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

Nov

OMAN

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.1

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

Nov

SYRIA

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 27: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

Figure 42.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1710

12

14

16

18

20

22NovASIA

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

Nov

MALAYSIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 175

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

NovRUSSIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Nov

OTHER ASIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Nov

AUSTRALIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

Nov

CHINA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Nov

INDIA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 28: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 175.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

Nov

Nov

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADAvs. SAUDI ARABIA(million barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia (10.2)

US + Canada (13.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

Nov

Nov

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADAvs. RUSSIA(million barrels per day)

Russia (11.1)

US + Canada (13.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.

Oil Supply: Big Producers

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 29: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 176.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Europe Big 4* (6.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* France, Germany, Italy, and UK.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-5

0

5

10

15

20

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)

China (6.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

Oil Demand

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 30: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nov

CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)

India (10.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

Oil Demand

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Page 31: Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by Yardeni Globdemsup

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