crude oil demand supply 2016 by yardeni globdemsup
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Crude Oil Demand Supply 2016 by YardeTRANSCRIPT
Energy Briefing:Global Crude Oil
Demand & SupplyYardeni Research, Inc.
January 21, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
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Crude Oil Price 1World Oil Demand & Supply 2-3Oil Demand/Supply Ratio 4Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC 5Crude Oil Output 6Oil Demand: World 7Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD 8-9Oil Demand: G7 10-12Oil Demand: Europe 13Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East 14Oil Demand: Asia 15-16Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe 17Oil Demand: Latin America 18-19Oil Supply: OPEC 20-21Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas 22Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe 23Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East 24Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia 25Oil Supply: Big Producers 26Oil Demand 27-28
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201710
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
10
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50
70
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110
130
150
170
1/20
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*(dollars per barrel)
Brent Crude Oil Price
West Texas IntermediateCrude Oil Price
* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 1.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1/20
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*(dollars per barrel)
Spread between Brent and WTICrude Oil Nearby Futures
* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 2.
Crude Oil Price
Page 1 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
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Figure 3.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766
68
70
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82
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90
92
94
96NovWORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Source of DataOil Market Intelligence (OMI)
US Department of Energy (DOE)
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766
68
70
72
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96NovWORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Supply (DOE)
Oil Demand (OMI)
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1765
67
69
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93
95
97NovWORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Supply (OMI)
Oil Demand (OMI)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.
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World Oil Demand & Supply
Page 2 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
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Figure 4.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1766
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78
80
82
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88
90
92
94
96
98
NovWORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)
Source of DataOil Market Intelligence (OMI)US Department of Energy (DOE)
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Nov
WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)
Supply (DOE)
Oil Demand (OMI)
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Nov
WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*(million barrels per day)
Supply (OMI)
Oil Demand (OMI)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.
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World Oil Demand & Supply
Page 3 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
Nov
WORLD CRUDEOIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO*
* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average of world crude supplySource: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 5.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
Nov
1/20
WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(yearly percent change)
Oil Demand/Supply Ratio*
* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average world crude supply.** Nearby futures price.
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Financial Times.
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Figure 6.
Oil Demand/Supply Ratio
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93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1724
26
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58
24
26
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50
52
54
56
58
Nov
NovCRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC (57.0)
OPEC (39.0)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 7.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1715
25
35
45
55
65
15
25
35
45
55
65
Jun
Jun
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data)(million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC
Total OPEC
Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 8.
Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC
Page 5 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
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84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1812
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40NovCRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)
(million barrels per day)
OMI
DOE
Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 9.
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1838
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Nov
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)(million barrels per day)
OMI
DOE
Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 10.
Crude Oil Output
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1760
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
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94
96
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
World (95.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 11.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
World (2.4)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 12.
Oil Demand: World
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93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1720
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
OECD-34 (46.2)
Non-OECD* (49.0)
* Total excluding OECD-34Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 13.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
OECD-34 (1.2)
Non-OECD* (3.5)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* Total excluding OECD-34.
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Figure 14.
Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1727
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
Nov
NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Old World:US, Western Europe, & Japan
New World:Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 15.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
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2
4
6
8
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
Old World:US, Western Europe, & Japan
New World:Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 16.
Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1730
32
34
36
38
30
32
34
36
38
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
OECD G7* (32.9)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and US territories.
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Figure 17.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1712
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
12
13
14
15
16
17
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19
20
21
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Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
United States (19.4)
Western Europe (13.6)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 18.
Oil Demand: G7
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND
Japan (4.3)
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 19.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Canada (2.3)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 20.
Oil Demand: G7
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1711
12
13
14
15
11
12
13
14
15
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Europe Big 4*Plus Japan (11.1)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.
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Figure 21.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Germany (2.4)France (1.7)Italy (1.3)UK (1.5)Spain (1.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 22.
Oil Demand: G7
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Other EU* (5.6)
* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 23.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Other OECD Europe* (2.4)
* Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 24.
Oil Demand: Europe
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(millions of barrels per day, 12-month avg)
Asia Excluding China,South Korea, & Japan (13.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 25.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
OPEC*
Middle East
* Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Neutral Zone, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 26.
Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.6
2.2
2.8
3.4
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.4
7.0
7.6
8.2
8.8
9.4
10.0
10.6
11.2
1.6
2.2
2.8
3.4
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.4
7.0
7.6
8.2
8.8
9.4
10.0
10.6
11.2NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND
(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
China (10.8)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 27.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(12-month average, million barrels per day)
India (4.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 28.
Oil Demand: Asia
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Australia & New Zealand (1.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 29.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
South Korea (2.4)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 30.
Oil Demand: Asia
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Former Soviet Union (4.8)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 31.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Eastern Europe* (0.7)
* Albania, Bosnia Herzegovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Federal Republic ofYugoslavia, Slovenia, Former Yugoslavia.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 32.
Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.9
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.9
NovCRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Latin America* (6.6)
* Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,Nantilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America.Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 33.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0
.5
1.0
1.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Latin AmericaExcluding Mexico and Brazil (1.3)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
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Figure 34.
Oil Demand: Latin America
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Brazil (3.3)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Mexico (2.0)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
Oil Demand: Latin America
Page 19 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 37.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1724
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Nov
CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: OPEC(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Nov
DUBAI
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
NovABU DHABI
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Nov
INDONESIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Nov
ALGERIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
Nov
IRAN
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
Nov
ANGOLA
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
NovIRAQ
yardeni.com
Oil Supply: OPEC
Page 20 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 38.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170
1
2
3
4
Nov
KUWAIT(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
Nov
QATAR
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.4
.0
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Nov
LIBYA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 176
8
10
12
Nov
SAUDI ARABIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
Nov
NEUTRAL ZONE
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
NovU.A.E.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Nov
NIGERIA
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170
1
2
3
4
Nov
VENEZUELA
yardeni.com
Oil Supply: OPEC
Page 21 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 39.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 174042444648505254565860
NovCRUDE OIL SUPPLY: NON-OPEC(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
NovCANADA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
Nov
OTHER AMERICAS
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
NovCOLUMBIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172
4
6
8
10
12
NovNON-OPEC NGLs
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
Nov
MEXICO
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
Nov
ARGENTINA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 173
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
NovUNITED STATES
yardeni.com
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3.6.9
1.21.51.82.12.42.73.0
Nov
BRAZIL
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas
Page 22 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 40.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172
3
4
5
6
7
8
Nov
EUROPE(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
Nov
OTHER EUROPE
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.0
Nov
NORTH SEA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
Nov
OTHER NORTH SEA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
Nov
NORWAY
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 170
1
2
3
Nov
UNITED KINGDOM
yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe
Page 23 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 41.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 173.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Nov
AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 171.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Nov
OTHER AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
Nov
EGYPT
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
Nov
GABON
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
Nov
OMAN
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
Nov
SYRIA
yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 42.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1710
12
14
16
18
20
22NovASIA
(million barrels per day)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
Nov
MALAYSIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 175
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
NovRUSSIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Nov
OTHER ASIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
Nov
AUSTRALIA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 172.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
Nov
CHINA
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
Nov
INDIA
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia
Page 25 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 175.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADAvs. SAUDI ARABIA(million barrels per day)
Saudi Arabia (10.2)
US + Canada (13.1)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
Nov
Nov
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADAvs. RUSSIA(million barrels per day)
Russia (11.1)
US + Canada (13.1)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
Oil Supply: Big Producers
Page 26 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 176.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(million barrels per day, 12-month average)
Europe Big 4* (6.9)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.* France, Germany, Italy, and UK.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)
China (6.1)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Oil Demand
Page 27 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Nov
CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)
India (10.2)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
Oil Demand
Page 28 / January 21, 2016 / Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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