Crossing the ChasmWhat’s New For VR 2017Pitfalls, Promises, Phones, Known Unknowns

& Big Predictions

Charlie FinkContributing Editor, VR Voice

@charliefinkhttp://medium.com/@charliefink

About Me

• Industry Analyst, Contributing Editor, VR Voice, 2016-Present

• Founder/CEO Charlie Company Internet Marketing 2005-15

• President, American Greeting Interactive, 1999-2004

• SVP AOL, 1996 – 1999

• EVP & COO, Virtual World Entertainment 1992-1996

• VP, Walt Disney Pictures, 1986 – 1992

These Things I Know Are True

• VR has been overhyped for 20 yearso Example of hype: Unity says 770 Million people are using its VR

platformo The hype will become real.

• The killer app is peopleo Social Media

• Technology and New Media succeed when they make what we are already doing better, cheaper and fastero Email & Messaging, Music, Photography, Travel

VR/AR/MR Definitions• VR = A world which replaces this one

• AR = Overlays digitally created content onto the users real world

• MR = Where the digital and real worlds interact

• 360 Video = Allows users to look in every direction around them

• Immersive Experience = A deeply engaging multi-sensory experience delivered using VR, AR, MR, 360 video, and other technologies

The Big Picture• The quest for the Seamless

o We look at our phones 100+ times a day• The Network effect

o You have to be there• Internet of Things

o Your cloud of devices and data are the hub of your life• Artificial Intelligence

o Things knowing you more than you know them• Wearables

o Hands free mobile computing• The Fourth Transformation

o Mainframes, PCs, Smartphones, and…

Consumer Technology Adoption Rates

ADOPTION RATES ARE ACCELERATING

- Oculus Rift- HTC Vive- Playstation VR

- 52MM VR ready PS4s already sold- Samsung Gear (partnership with Oculus)

- 5M shipped in 2016- Google Cardboard

- 20 million - Google Daydream

But 2016 Was Not the Year of VR

• Expenseo This shit is expensive

• Ease of Useo High end systems hard to useo Advantage mobile – plug and play

• Ergonomics: heavy, restrictive, tetheredo Advantage: mobile

• Frame Rate Issues & Low Resolutiono People are still getting nauseous o Poor optics create a “screen door” effect

• Crossing the “Chasm”o Are we even there yet?

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION LIFECYCLE

VR 2017 Developments

• 360 Video Is Going Accelerateo Will be driven by consumers, not professional producers

• Applications Explosiono SDKs in the hands of 1000s of developerso More & better native VR softwareo VR Movies, Storytelling, Animation & Art

• Continued Growth in Business Use of VR and ARo Medical, Design, Travel, Militaryo Business users become home users

• Location Based Entertainmento IMAX VR, HTC, UniVRSo The Void & Zero Latency: free roam, warehouse size VR

• Prices are Going Up, not Downo More, better high resolution headsets are coming to marketo Needed peripherals: wireless, multipoint input

• Slow Adoption of High End Systems Continueso Playstation VR (52 MM install base)o No killer app (probably social)

VR/AR Ecosystem Exploding with New

Products

• Developer Supporto Economics, OSVR, Unity

• Peripherals & Hapticso Data gloves, rings, treadmills, VR shoes, Wearables, Multi point (HTC)o Untethered headsets (Kwik VR, IMR)

• Eye Trackingo SMI, Eyefluence (Google) and The Eye Tribe (FB)

• Social VRo Second Life, AltSpaceVRo Facebook in 3Do Oculus Rooms

End of ReportStart of Predictions

We are only in the second 2nd Inning of a long game.

360 Video Will Hit an Inflection point in 2017

• Low cost to producers & consumers• Amazing CES product introductions

o Vuze, Giroptic• New Feature of Digital Photography

(already huge)o Facebook and You Tube supporto Great for travel, sports

• Improved and cheap editing software • Lots of corporate activity

o NY Times, Discovery, Gannet/USA, Movies/TV producer• By 2018, 360 will be everywhere

Mobile VR Growth Will Accelerate…

• Gear, Daydream are under $100• Plug and Play• Mobile and 360 Video Are Homies

o You don’t need a headset, either• Latency an issue on mobile, but…

o Qualcomm Tango (Google) based on Snapdragon processor• Qualcomm Snapdragon & Google Tango

o AR is about to explode onto our phones (Samsung 8, Lenovo)• Much Bigger Market, Harder to Monetize• The Carriers Will Become Players

o Communications is the base functionality

New Announcements Will Reorder the Deck

“It’s all about the guys at the top of the pyramid.” – Tim Merel, Digi-

Capital

• Microsofto Microsoft 10 is a VR and AR platformo OEMs promising $500 devices similar to Hololens for MS OS

• Appleo iPhone turns 10o Buying up AR companies

• Googleo Daydream, but Magic Leapo Eyefluence

• Oculus (Facebook)o Samsung VR sold 5MM GearVR headsetso Soft sales for RIFT (and 4 BN lawsuit)

• ODGo Hololens patentso Under 1000 AR glasses

• Magic Leapo 1.3 Bn invested, including 400MM from Google

2017 May Be the Year of AR• AR Leaders Strong in the Gate

o Snap, Inc. is the first AR Empireo Pokemon Go made ONE BILLION DOLLARSo Holoportation is nothing less than pure magic

• AR Advantages over VRo Plug & Play (on the low end)o Less restrictive to wear (more like glasses)o Better, clearer opticso Sanpdragon phones will work magic

• Big AR Announcements Due This Yearo Known: ODG, Apple (predicted)o Unknown: Magic Leap, or… ? Sony Future Labs – Concept T (Q4 17)

VR/AR Ecosystem

The Future’s So Bright, You Gotta Wear Shades