crop production - usda...2020/08/12 · 905 882 823 938 480.0 530.0 580.0 630.0 680.0 730.0 780.0...
TRANSCRIPT
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Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, ChiefCrops Branch
August 12, 2020
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Data Sources
August 12, 2020
August 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
Operator Reported
Survey
Field Objective Yield
Survey Winter Wheat
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through
(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 3
Ag Yield Sample Size = 20,346 July 30 - August 6
Sample Size = 1,155 July 25 - August 1
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August 2020 CornAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,550 ↑ 3.8 202 ↑ 2.0 2,737,100 ↑ 5.9
Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 207 ↑ 14.4 2,214,900 ↑ 20.0
Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 191 ↑ 4.9 1,804,950 ↑ 1.1
Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 197 ↑ 13.9 1,507,050 ↑ 20.2
Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 188 ↑ 11.2 987,000 ↑ 21.2
Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
NC
3.3 ↑ 8.6 ↑ 12.2
NC N/A N/A
Planted Harvested Yield Production
92,006 84,023 181.8 15,278,202
↑ ↑
Top 5 States - By Production
2.6
Planted Harvested Yield
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
-
108.6
131.5
100.7
138.6
113.5
127.1126.7
134.4133.8136.9138.2
129.3
142.2
160.3
147.9149.1150.7
153.3
164.4
152.6
146.8
123.1
158.1
171.0168.4
174.6176.6176.4
167.4
181.8
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
190.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Corn YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Bushels per Acre
-
August 2020 Corn YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020
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August 2020 CornNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
August 12, 2020
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12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.114.6 14.3
13.6
15.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
August 2020 Corn ProductionUnited States
August 12, 2020
Billion Bushels
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2020 U.S. Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
August 12, 2020
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
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August 2020 SoybeansAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 64.0 ↑ 18.5 662,400 ↑ 24.4
Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 58.0 ↑ 5.5 540,560 ↑ 7.8
Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5
Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 61.0 ↑ 19.6 346,480 ↑ 26.7
Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 62.0 ↑ 6.0 306,900 ↑ 8.4
↑ 12.4 ↑ 24.6
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↑ 10.2
NC NC N/A N/A
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↑ 10.8
83,825 83,020 53.3 4,424,800
Planted Harvested Yield Production
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34.2
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9 38.9
36.6
38.1
39.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.1 42.9
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
42.0
40.0
44.0
47.548.0
51.9
49.3
50.6
47.4
53.3
29.0
34.0
39.0
44.0
49.0
54.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Soybean YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Bushels per Acre
-
August 2020 Soybean YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020
-
August 2020 SoybeansNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
August 12, 2020
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August 2020 Soybean ProductionUnited States
August 12, 2020
Billion Bushels
3.10 3.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.30 4.414.43
3.55
4.42
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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2020 U.S. Soybean ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
August 12, 2020
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
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August 2020 CottonAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
Texas 6,615 ↓ 6.3 3,861 ↓ 26.6 774 ↑ 33.9 6,223 ↓ 1.8
Georgia 1,230 ↓ 12.1 1,220 ↓ 11.6 1,003 ↑ 5.2 2,550 ↓ 6.9
Mississippi 520 ↓ 26.8 515 ↓ 26.4 1,240 ↑ 11.5 1,330 ↓ 18.0
Arkansas 500 ↓ 19.4 490 ↓ 19.7 1,195 ↑ 0.8 1,220 ↓ 19.0
Alabama 470 ↓ 13.0 465 ↓ 12.6 981 ↑ 5.7 950 ↓ 7.6
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
↓ 20.4 ↑ 14.0 ↓ 9.2
NC N/A N/A
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
12,185 9,247 938 18,080
N/A
↓ 11.3
Planted Harvested Yield Production
-
652
700
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
730
855
831814
879
813
776
812
790
892
822838
766
867
905
882
823
938
480.0
530.0
580.0
630.0
680.0
730.0
780.0
830.0
880.0
930.0
980.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Cotton YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Pounds per Acre
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August 2020 Cotton YieldPounds and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2020
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August 2020 Cotton ProductionUnited States
August 12, 2020
Million Bales
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.9
18.4
19.9
18.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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August 2020 Winter WheatAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Kansas 6,700 ↓ 2.9 6,400 ↓ 1.5 46.0 ↓ 11.5 294,400 ↓ 12.9
Washington 1,700 ↓ 2.9 1,650 ↓ 2.9 74.0 ↑ 5.7 122,100 ↑ 2.6
Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 2.4 2,700 ↓ 1.8 42.0 ↑ 5.0 113,400 ↑ 3.1
Montana 1,550 ↓ 22.5 1,450 ↓ 23.7 52.0 ↑ 4.0 75,400 ↓ 20.6
Texas 4,800 ↑ 6.7 2,100 ↑ 2.4 30.0 ↓ 11.8 63,000 ↓ 9.6
↓ 4.7 ↓ 8.1
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↓ 2.0
30,550 23,439 51.1 1,198,362
NC NC ↓ 1.7 ↓ 1.6
Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↓ 3.7
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
-
34.7
38.2
40.2 40.2
37.737.1
44.6
46.947.8
44.6
43.4
38.2
46.7
43.544.3
41.6 41.7
47.1
44.0
46.5 46.147.1 47.3
42.6 42.5
55.3
50.2
47.9
53.6
51.1
31.0
36.0
41.0
46.0
51.0
56.0
61.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Winter Wheat YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Bushels per Acre
-
August 2020 Winter Wheat YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020
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August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective YieldPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
August 12, 2020
Percent
16
64
93
21
68
94
28
69
93
18
69
93
8
50
89
14
64
92
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Ju
ne
July
Au
gust
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature
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August 2020 Winter Wheat Objective YieldHeads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region
August 12, 2020
Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heads per Square Foot Yield
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August 2020 Winter Wheat ProductionUnited States
August 12, 2020
Billion Bushels
1.49
1.631.54
1.38 1.37
1.67
1.271.18
1.301.20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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August 2020 Winter Wheat ProductionBy Class
August 12, 2020
Unit
Hard Red Winter Wheat Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 2.1
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.5
Soft Red Winter Wheat Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 1.2
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.8
White Winter Wheat Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.5
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.4
Production(1,000 Units)
695,365
276,882
226,115
783
998
747 739
830
1,082
750
662
833
695
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Bushels
Hard Red Winter Wheat ProductionUnited States
453
413
568
455
359 345
293 286
239277
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Bushels
Soft Red Winter Wheat ProductionUnited States
258
220 227
184 185
245227
236 232 226
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Bushels
White Winter Wheat ProductionUnited States
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2020 U.S. Winter Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
August 12, 2020
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
May June July August Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
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August 2020 Other Spring WheatAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
North Dakota 6,000 ↓ 10.4 5,850 ↓ 1.7 48.0 ↓ 2.0 280,800 ↓ 3.7
Montana 3,000 ↑ 3.4 2,850 ↑ 3.3 40.0 ↑ 8.1 114,000 ↑ 11.6
Minnesota 1,300 ↓ 10.3 1,260 ↓ 10.0 58.0 ↑ 1.8 73,080 ↓ 8.4
Idaho 530 ↑ 15.2 510 ↑ 15.9 82.0 ↓ 7.9 41,820 ↑ 6.8
South Dakota 850 ↑ 32.8 815 ↑ 34.7 45.0 ↑ 4.7 36,675 ↑ 41.0
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
↑ 1.2 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 2.7
NC NC ↑ 5.2
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
12,200 11,795 49.0 577,485
↑ 5.0
↓ 3.6
Planted Harvested Yield Production
-
33.4
41.8
33.7
31.832.2
35.1
29.9
34.934.1
38.4
35.2
29.1
39.5
43.2
37.1
33.2
37.1
40.5
45.246.1
37.7
44.9
47.146.7
46.2
47.3
41.0
48.3 48.249.0
26.0
31.0
36.0
41.0
46.0
51.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Other Spring Wheat YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Bushels per Acre
-
August 2020 Other Spring Wheat YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020
-
2020 U.S. Other Spring Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
August 12, 2020
0.520
0.530
0.540
0.550
0.560
0.570
0.580
July August Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
-
August 2020 Durum WheatAcreage, Yield, and Production
August 12, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
North Dakota 790 ↑ 9.7 770 ↑ 28.3 40.0 ↓ 5.9 30,800 ↑ 20.8
Montana 610 ↑ 10.9 590 ↑ 14.6 38.0 ↓ 11.6 22,420 ↑ 1.2
Arizona 55 ↑ 61.8 52 ↑ 57.6 110.0 ↑ 5.8 5,720 ↑ 66.7
California 35 ↑ 16.7 22 NC 90.0 ↓ 11.8 1,980 ↓ 11.8
Idaho 10 ↑ 100.0 10 ↑ 100.0 87.0 NC 870 ↑ 100.0
↓ 6.3 ↑ 14.9
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↑ 12.0
1,500 1,444 42.8 61,790
NC NC ↑ 11.2 ↑ 11.2
Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↑ 22.9
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
-
32.5
39.7
33.6
35.6
30.5
32.6
27.6
37.0
27.8
30.730.0
29.5
33.7
38.037.2
29.5
34.1
31.3
44.0
41.2
36.8
38.4
43.3
40.2
44.0 44.0
26.0
39.5
45.7
42.8
23.0
28.0
33.0
38.0
43.0
48.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
August 2020 Durum Wheat YieldUnited States
August 12, 2020
Bushels per Acre
-
August 2020 Durum Wheat YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2020
-
2020 U.S. Durum Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
August 12, 2020
0.050
0.055
0.060
0.065
0.070
July August Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
-
August 12, 2020
August 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Barley Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 3.5 ↑ 3.6
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.8 ↑ 2.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 3.7
Pima Cotton Lb Bale
% Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 14.7 ↓ 15.0 ↓ 4.8 ↓ 19.1
Upland Cotton Lb Bale
% Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.2 ↓ 20.5 ↑ 14.7 ↓ 8.9
Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.5 ↑ 2.5 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 26.5 ↑ 33.5 ↑ 18.0 ↑ 57.6
Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 2.3 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 5.9
Other Hay Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.0 ↓ 1.4 ↓ 0.5
N/A 16,352
N/A 36,029
2,797
Yield(Units per Acre)
51,660
73,590
195 190
11,990 9,057
1,628 1,571
Harvested(1,000 Acres)
Planted(1,000 Acres)
1,402
929
2,088
3.16
2.04
32,807
Production(1,000 Units)
175,917
555
17,525
78.82,232
-
August 12, 2020
August 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Hops Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 4.6 ↑ 0.1 ↑ 4.6
Oats Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.2
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 11.5 ↑ 20.8 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 22.1
Peanuts Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.0 ↑ 5.8 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 13.0
Rice Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 15.0 ↑ 16.1 ↑ 1.7 ↑ 18.1
Sorghum Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 4.9 ↑ 8.7
2,921 2,870 7,600 218,112
5,620 4,845 76.6 371,055
65.0 64,907
1,514 1,473 4,218 6,213,200
Planted Harvested Yield Production
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
N/A 59.2 1,982 117,229
3,134 998
-
August 12, 2020
August 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Sugarbeets Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 7.5 ↑ 23.8
Sugarcane Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.4 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.2 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 4.8
Tobacco Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 3.9 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.4 ↓ 8.2 ↓ 20.4
All Wheat Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.8 ↑ 0.8
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 2.0 ↓ 1.3 ↓ 3.1 ↓ 4.3
N/A 197 1,892 372,340
44,250 36,678 50.1 1,837,637
1,148 1,127 31.4 35,393
N/A 924 36.2 33,478
Planted Harvested Yield Production
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
-
August 12, 2020
August 2020 Noncitrus FruitProduction
Unit
Apples Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.3
Cranberries Brl
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 13.3
Grapes Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.5
Peaches Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.3
Pears Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.7
646
800
Production(1,000 Units)
10,650,000
8,970
7,180
9.49.0
10.5
11.9
10.1
11.5 11.6
10.211.0
10.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billion Pounds
Apple ProductionUnited States
7.41 7.53
8.63
7.887.62 7.70 7.38 7.60
6.877.18
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Tons
Grape ProductionUnited States
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August 12, 2020
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August 12, 2020
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