creativity and the future

Creativity and the FutureCreativity and the Future

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

Glocal Vantage Inc.Glocal Vantage Inc.

Glocal Vantage Inc. 2

TopicsTopics

• Concepts of the FutureConcepts of the Future

• The Four Futures The Four Futures

• Creativity and the FutureCreativity and the Future

• From Noise to WisdomFrom Noise to Wisdom

• Techniques to Improve ForesightTechniques to Improve Foresight

• Developing ForesightDeveloping Foresight


Concepts of the FutureConcepts of the Future

• Does the Past Matter?Does the Past Matter?

• The Uncertain PresentThe Uncertain Present

• An Unknowable Future?An Unknowable Future?


The Four FuturesThe Four Futures

• LinearLinear

• CyclicalCyclical

• ChaoticChaotic

• ComplexComplex



• LinearLinear

• Cyclical

• Chaotic

• Complex



• Linear


• Chaotic

• Complex

• First Industrial First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)Revolution (1760 - 1860)

• Second Industrial Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)Revolution (1860 - 1950)

• Third Industrial Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)Revolution (1950 - 2020)



• Linear


• Chaotic

• Complex

• Nonproductive (25 years)Nonproductive (25 years)

• Counter Productive (25 Counter Productive (25 years)years)

• Hyperproductive and Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)Transformational (25 years)



• Linear

• Cyclical

• ChaoticChaotic

• Complex



• Linear

• Cyclical

• Chaotic

• ComplexComplex

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75

Earthquake Magnitude

Nu

mb

er

of

Ea

rth

qu

ak

es

EarthquakesEarthquakes



• Linear

• Cyclical

• Chaotic

• ComplexComplex

5

2 2

1 11

10

1 2 3 4 5

Change Ratio

Freq

uen

cy

Number of Transistors/ICNumber of Transistors/IC


Types of FuturingTypes of Futuring

Future 1Future 1

Future 2Future 2

TodayToday

NormativeNormative

ProjectiveProjective

What are What are possible possible futures?futures?Can we find Can we find a path to get a path to get to those to those futures?futures?

What is the What is the trend?trend?What may What may affect the affect the trend?trend?What are the What are the potential potential futures?futures?


Information and CreativityInformation and Creativity

NoiseNoise

DataData

KnowledgeKnowledge

WisdomWisdom


Four Causes of RealityFour Causes of Reality

• MaterialMaterial

• FormalFormal

• ProductiveProductive

• FinalFinal


Techniques to Improve ForesightTechniques to Improve Foresight

• MaterialMaterial

• Formal

• Productive

• Final

• Surveillance Surveillance techniquestechniques– ScanningScanning

– MonitoringMonitoring

– TrackingTracking


SurveillanceSurveillance

• ScanningScanning• MonitoringMonitoring• TrackingTracking

Moving away

Moving tangentially

Moving towards

Not moving, getting larger

Not moving, getting smaller



• Material

• FormalFormal

• Productive

• Final

• Trend analysisTrend analysis– AnalogyAnalogy

– Precursor Precursor developmentsdevelopments

– Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolation

– Limit curveLimit curve

– Substitution analysisSubstitution analysis

– Multiple substitution Multiple substitution analysisanalysis


Trend AnalysisTrend Analysis

• AnalogyAnalogy• Precursor

developments• Trend extrapolation• Limit curve• Substitution analysis• Multiple substitution

analysis



• Analogy• Precursor Precursor

developmentsdevelopments• Trend extrapolation• Limit curve• Substitution analysis• Multiple substitution

analysis Time (Effort, Experience)

Util

ityF

unct

ion



• Analogy• Precursor

developments• Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolation• Limit curve• Substitution analysis• Multiple substitution

analysis 0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Year

Inte

rnet

Use

rs W

orld

wid

e (M

illio

ns)

eTForecasts (2000)

Computer Industry Almanac(2000)

Computer Industry Almanac(1999)

Tapscott (1996)

US DOC (1999)

Trend Analysis (2001)

World's Population

World's Population

Glocal Vantage, Inc.




developments• Trend extrapolation• Limit curveLimit curve• Substitution analysis• Multiple substitution

analysis100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Eggs

/Chi

cken

Yea

r




developments• Trend extrapolation• Limit curve• Substitution analysisSubstitution analysis• Multiple substitution Multiple substitution

analysisanalysis0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

Year

Stea

m G

ross

Ton

nage



• Material

• Formal

• ProductiveProductive

• Final

• Expert opinion Expert opinion techniquestechniques– InterviewsInterviews

– SurveysSurveys

– GroupsGroups



• Material

• Formal

• Productive

• FinalFinal

• Integrative techniquesIntegrative techniques– ScenariosScenarios

– SWOTSWOT

– Opportunity/Threat Opportunity/Threat analysisanalysis

– Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis

– Innovation mapInnovation map

– Mathematical modelsMathematical models

– Road MapRoad Map

– Four LawsFour Laws


Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ScenariosScenarios

• SWOT

• Opportunity/Threat analysis

• Cross Impact Analysis

• Innovation map

• Mathematical models

• Road Map

• Four Laws

Quality of LifeQuality of LifeControlled GrowthControlled Growth

Master PlannedMaster PlannedEducationEducation

The New The New Small Small TownTown

Best Best Bedroom Bedroom Community Community in South in South TexasTexas

The The Community Community of the 21st of the 21st CenturyCentury

The City The City that that Fulfills the Fulfills the American American DreamDream



• Scenarios

• SWOTSWOT



• Innovation map


• Road Map

• Four Laws

Explore Exploit

Avoid Confront

Internal Environment Weaknesses Strengths

Ex

tern

al E

nv

iro

nm

en

t T

hre

ats

O

pp

ort

un

itie

s

Glocal Vantage, Inc.



• Scenarios

• SWOT

• Opportunity/Threat Opportunity/Threat analysisanalysis

• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis

• Innovation map


• Road Map

• Four Laws

CustomersCustomers

TechnologyTechnologyCompetitionCompetition

DemographicDemographic

SociopoliticalSociopolitical

ScientificScientific

EconomicEconomic

EmbeddedEmbeddedSupportiveSupportiveEnablingEnabling

PresentPresentPotentialPotentialPossiblePossible

DirectDirectIndirectIndirect

StructuralStructural



• Scenarios

• SWOT



• Innovation mapInnovation map


• Road Map

• Four Laws

Product

Process

Procedure

Incr

emen

tal

Distin

ctiv

e

Break

thro

ugh



• Scenarios

• SWOT



• Innovation map

• Mathematical modelsMathematical models

• Road MapRoad Map

• Four Laws



• Scenarios

• SWOT



• Innovation map


• Road Map

• Four LawsFour Laws

EnhanceEnhance ReverseReverse

RetrieveRetrieve ObsolesceObsolesce


Futures LabFutures Lab

• Future FramingFuture Framing• Future PulsingFuture Pulsing• Future MappingFuture Mapping• Future ScapingFuture Scaping• Future TuningFuture Tuning• Future FabbingFuture Fabbing



• Future FramingFuture Framing• Future Pulsing• Future Mapping• Future Scaping• Future Tuning• Future Fabbing

Establishes the context Establishes the context for the present and for the present and potential leverage potential leverage points for the futurepoints for the future



• Future Framing• Future PulsingFuture Pulsing• Future Mapping• Future Scaping• Future Tuning• Future Fabbing

Using leverage points, Using leverage points, identify influences and identify influences and influencers to provide influencers to provide insight into future insight into future triggerstriggers



• Future Framing• Future Pulsing• Future MappingFuture Mapping• Future Scaping• Future Tuning• Future Fabbing

Sculpting the triggers Sculpting the triggers into a future platforminto a future platform



• Future Framing• Future Pulsing• Future Mapping• Future ScapingFuture Scaping• Future Tuning• Future Fabbing

Creating future Creating future scenarios from the scenarios from the selected platformselected platform



• Future Framing• Future Pulsing• Future Mapping• Future Scaping• Future TuningFuture Tuning• Future Fabbing

Arriving at a preferred Arriving at a preferred futurefuture



• Future Framing• Future Pulsing• Future Mapping• Future Scaping• Future Tuning• Future FabbingFuture Fabbing

Implementing the Implementing the preferred scenariopreferred scenario


Developing ForesightDeveloping Foresight

InputsInputs

TechniquesTechniques

OutputOutput

Decision/QuestionDecision/Question

QualitativeQualitativeQuantitativeQuantitativeTimeTimeProbabilityProbability

PlanningPlanning ImplementationImplementation

AssumptionsAssumptionsDataDataInsightInsightJudgementJudgement

ProjectiveProjectiveNormativeNormative


Information and CreativityInformation and Creativity

NoiseNoise

DataData

KnowledgeKnowledge

WisdomWisdom


Creativity and the FutureCreativity and the Future

• Creativity is Required to:Creativity is Required to:– Construct Positive, Ennobling Visions of the Construct Positive, Ennobling Visions of the

FutureFuture– Write Compelling Descriptions of the Write Compelling Descriptions of the

Knowable FutureKnowable Future– Sense the Shifts in Both Figure and Ground Sense the Shifts in Both Figure and Ground

• Isn’t the Care of the Future a High Isn’t the Care of the Future a High Moral Responsibility?Moral Responsibility?

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 40

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

• PO Box 161475

• Austin, TX 78716

• (512) 632-6586

• [email protected]

• www.glocalvantage.com

• http://incollaboration.com

• Twitter: innovant2003

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

• Futurist and innovation consultant

• Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems

• Web 2.0 tools & technologies

• Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes

• Broad perspectives on the future

• Services– Strategic market research & technology forecasting

– Intelligence systems consulting

– Seminars, webinars & presentations

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 41

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution

license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work,

even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage

Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

creativity and the future

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