Creative Thinking Steps in Policy Development

• John Schmidt

• Patricia Sommerville

World Future Society July 12, 2014

• Policy, Planning, Intelligence & Foresight

• Creative Tools− Creative Questioning− Organizational Effectiveness− Change Management

• Keys to Presenting to Senior Leaders

Topics

About YOU and Your Experiences

Have you worked with or for an organization that has formally attempted to set up a foresight unit or to add a foresight function to an existing unit?

•How was it mandated and configured, especially in relation to other units?

•How well did it perform?

•Was it successful (did it survive)?

What are you looking for here?

Policy, Planning, Intelligence & Foresight

• Anticipatory Governance

• Solving Complicated Problems

• An Interactive System

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

The U.S. Government operates using institutions designed for an era gone by.

The consequences are an increasing number of collisions with “unforeseeable events” and opportunities lost.

In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully influence ultimate outcomes.

We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events.

Anticipatory Governance:

Not an easy sell, even if there is broad agreement on the need.

Near-term emergencies always distract from the longer-term challenges.

The question is how to achieve strategic coherence.

The systems of government for dealing with major issues are outmoded for today’s kind of problems, which are “complex” rather than “complicated.”

Anticipatory Governance:

Anticipatory Governance, Practical Upgrades, L. Fuerth, p.4

Foresight is:

Planning

Policy, Planning, Intelligence

The Futures Cone

Dr Joseph Voros (adapted from Henchey, 1978)

Science Fiction

Science Fiction

Foresight

Foresight

Description & ExplanationIntelligence Policy &Planning

What is.

What if?

What if?

Assessment, Forecasting & Warning

Assessment, Forecasting & Warning

Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space

What islikely.

What islikely.

•Possible/Imaginable

•Plausible

•Probable/Predictable

•Past/Present

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

Plausible

Predictab

le

Foresight

Intelligence/Research

• Emerging trends• Scenarios/what-ifs• Weak signals• Outliers, Black swans• Resiliency factors• Drivers & Signposts

• Current/Operational• Tactical forecast• Strategic forecast• Current trends• Statistical predictions• Monitoring/Alerts

Planning& Policy

DecisionsActions

HorizonNear Far

Range of interest

Requirements& Tasking

Outcomes:•Intended•Unintended

Feedback

Feedback

Feed

back

Feedback

A Complete and Interactive System

?Planning

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

Intelligence+Foresight ?

Policy+Foresight

Planning+Foresight

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

Planning

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

Intelligence

Policy

Planning

Foresight

External Foresight SMEs External Foresight SMEs

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

Creative Tools

How to Create Engagement

• Understanding Your Organizational Effectiveness

• Change Management: Moving from No to Yes

• Creative Questioning

OrganizationalEffectiveness

Vision….

Future…

Intuitive….

Horizon

Detailed…

Concrete…

Observable…

Specific

Practical…

Face-to-Face…

Measurable…

Inspiration…

Investment…

Contribution…

Communication

The Organizations Alive! Model

Change Management

• Awareness

• Desire

• Knowledge

• Ability

• Reinforcement

• Awareness of the need for change

• Desire to participate and support the change

• Knowledge on how to change

• Ability to implement required skills and behaviors

• Reinforcement to sustain the change

ADKAR

© Prosci.com

Employee morale fluctuates during each phaseEmployee morale fluctuates during each phase

Current State Transition Period Future StateCurrent State Transition Period Future State

M

ora

le

Time

Human ImpactDenial or

False Hope

Immobilized

Anger or

Panic

Depression

Letting Go/Accepting Reality

Testing

Merging past and present

Internalization/ Commitment

Change Management Stages

Integrate Change Management and Project Management

© Prosci.com

The Change Management Team

Change

SeniorleadersSeniorleaders

Project team

Project team

EmployeesEmployeesManagers &supervisors

Managers &supervisors

Change management

© Prosci.com

Creative Questioning

Creative Questioning

• Ask the audience questions that :− make assumptions explicit− enable action− address issues

• Use a tool to anticipate questions, create action

− Starburst− Spiral

Starburst Questioning

IssueWhy? What?

Whe

n? How?

Who?

Spiral ‘Call to Action’

ToolIssueTiming

Steps

Success

Keys to Unlocking Senior Leaders

• Know your audience− ‘What’s in it for me?’

• Enthuse, with evidence− Inspire, connect, persuade

• Anticipate resistance− Make mitigation part of the strategy

• Open strong, finish stronger

The Four Domains

Contextual

Organizational

Interpersonal

Personal

“If the person you are talking to doesn't appear to be listening, be patient. It may simply be that he has a small piece of fluff in his ear.”

A.A. Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh

Testing Engagement

• What did you get from this?

• What is your key ‘takeaway’?

• What will you do with it?

• What else did you want to get?

- Contact -

John Schmidt

jjjs@rogers.com

Patricia Sommerville

patricia.j.sommerville@gmail.com