1

Alan DaviesPollard Davies Pty Ltd

Jobs in the SUBURBSThe structure of suburban employment in Melbourne

The popular perception of Melbourne’s employment geography?

Melbourne: Gross job density 2006 (jobs/km2)

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

R² = 0.881465861688014

DENSITY 06 Power (DENSITY 06)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Jobs

per

km

2

Inner city

Can investigate this question using ABS JTW data...

Approach

3

Can investigate this question using ABS JTW data...

Approach

4

Dispersion?Structure?

Long term trend is for employment to disperse away from the centre....

Proportion of metro jobs by band – 1981 vs 2006

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

R² = 0.779104886780351

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

% sh

are

all m

etro

em

ploy

men

t

Inner city

Long term trend is for employment to disperse away from the centre....

Proportion of metro jobs by band – 1981 vs 2006

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

R² = 0.779104886780351

R² = 0.786362580886882

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

% sh

are

all m

etro

em

ploy

men

t

Inner city

Jobs moved outwards....

Change in distance of jobs from CBD, 1981-2006 (km)

Centre-of-mass

"Average job"

Median

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

5.9 km

12.4 km

9.5 km

1981 Employment 2006 Employment

Distance from CBD (km)

7

Centre-of-mass

"Average job"

Median

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

7.9 km

15.6 km

13.9 km

5.9 km

12.4 km

9.5 km

1981 Employment 2006 Employment

Distance from CBD (km)

46% ∆

26% ∆

34% ∆

8

Jobs moved outwards....

Change in distance of jobs from CBD, 1981-2006 (km)

9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

R² = 0.786362580886883

Employment 06 Exponential (Employment 06)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

% sh

are

all m

etro

em

ploy

men

t

50%> 13 km Inner city

The great bulk of jobs are now in the suburbs....

Distribution of metro jobs in 1 km wide bands, 2006

72%> 5 km

10

Only a minority of jobs are now located in the CBD

CBD (1.5 km radius), 2006

14% all metro jobs

Dominance of suburbs holds for most sectors.....

Proportion of metro jobs in suburbs by sector, 2006 (%)

Commercial Hospitality Community Wholesale Retail Manufacturing Other Total0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Inner city Suburbs

Sector

Perc

ent

11

Dominance of suburbs holds for most sectors.....

Proportion of metro jobs in suburbs by sector, 2006 (%)

Commercial Hospitality Community Wholesale Retail Manufacturing Other Total0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

48.8

61.2

72.6

82.184.6 84.8

82.2

71.7

Inner city Suburbs

Sector

Perc

ent

12

Commercial jobs display a ‘split personality’....

Share all metro Commercial jobs, by band – 2006 (%)

13

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0R² = 0.709079293882818

Commercial Power (Commercial)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e al

l met

ro C

omm

ercia

l job

s (%

)

Commercial jobs display a ‘split personality’....

Share all metro Commercial jobs, by band – 2006 (%)

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0R² = 0.709079293882818

Commercial Power (Commercial)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e al

l met

ro C

omm

ercia

l job

s (%

)

Suburbs 49%0.98 x 1981 share

Distribution of Community jobs is relatively flat....

Share all metro Community jobs, by band - 2006 (%)

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

R² = 0.849971535794848

Community Logarithmic (Community)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e of

all

met

ro C

omm

unity

jobs

(%)

Distribution of Community jobs is relatively flat....

Share all metro Community jobs, by band - 2006 (%)

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

R² = 0.849971535794848

Community Logarithmic (Community)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e of

all

met

ro C

omm

unity

jobs

(%)

0.7 x 1981 share

Suburbs 73%

50% of jobs > 11 km from CBD (9.6 km in 1981)

Distribution of Manufacturing jobs is now biased to the middle ring suburbs....

Share all Manufacturing jobs, by band – 2006 (%)

17

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

R² = 0.459421667157501

Manufacturing Polynomial (Manufacturing)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e al

l met

ro M

anuf

actu

ring

jobs

(%)

Distribution of Manufacturing jobs is now biased to the middle ring suburbs....

Share all Manufacturing jobs, by band – 2006 (%)

18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 500.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

R² = 0.459421667157501

Manufacturing Polynomial (Manufacturing)

Distance from CBD (one km wide bands)

Shar

e al

l met

ro M

anuf

actu

ring

jobs

(%)

0.5 x 1981 share

50% of jobs > 17 km from CBD

Suburbs 85%

19

However rate of dispersal slowed significantly after 1996......

Change in location of centre-of-mass 1981-06

5.9 km

20

However rate of dispersal slowed significantly after 1996......

Change in location of centre-of-mass 1981-06

7.9 km

5.9 km

21

However rate of dispersal slowed significantly after 1996......

Change in location of centre-of-mass 1981-06

7.9 km

7.9 km

5.9 km

22

1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Inner city Suburbs

Inter censal period

Perc

ent

SUBURBS

Because job growth in the inner city was stronger after 1996......

Inter-censal job growth, 1981-2006, inner city & suburbs (%)

23

1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Inner city Suburbs

Inter censal period

Perc

ent

SUBURBS

INNER CITY

Because job growth in the inner city was stronger after 1996......

Inter-censal job growth, 1981-2006, inner city & suburbs (%)

Composition of suburban jobs now markedly different to inner city....

Characteristics: Sectoral composition suburban jobs, 2006 (%)

24

CML HOS CMY RETAIL WHL MAN OTHER0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

43.4

10

Inner city Suburbs

Sector

Perc

ent

Composition of suburban jobs is markedly different to inner city....

Characteristics: Sectoral composition suburban jobs, 2006 (%)

25

CML HOS CMY RETAIL WHL MAN OTHER0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

43.4

10

16.3

22

Inner city Suburbs

Sector

Perc

ent

26

Most suburban jobs are located in the South-East....

Characteristics: orientation of suburban employment, 2006

South-East

North

West

West

North

South -East

Most of Melbourne’s high human capital jobs are in the suburbs...

Characteristics: shares of graduate jobs, 2006 (%)

CML HOS CMY RET WHL MAN OTH TOT0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

42.4%

Inner city Suburbs

Perc

ent

27

Most of Melbourne’s high human capital jobs are in the suburbs...

Characteristics: shares of graduate jobs, 2006 (%)

CML HOS CMY RET WHL MAN OTH TOT0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

42.4%

57.6%

Inner city Suburbs

Perc

ent

28

Population is the key driver of suburban job growth.....

Characteristics: Suburban jobs & population, 1996 (%)

29

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 720.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00R² = 0.80233019940157R² = 0.753327345376965

Jobs 96 Exponential (Jobs 96)Population 96 Exponential (Population 96)

Distance in one km wide bands

Perc

ent a

ll m

etro

Employment

Populationn

30

Melbourne

Brunswick/Yarra

Port Phillip/Prahran

Middle East

Middle West

Glen Eira/Caulfield

Middle North

Bayside

Manningham West

Melton/Wyndham

Monash/Whitehorse

Hume

Middle South

Outer East

Knox/Maroondah

Dandenong

Cardinia/Casey

Mornington Peninsula

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent

Great bulk of residents live and work in the suburbs...

Characteristics: % work in inner city, 2006

31

Melbourne LGA

Casey LGA

Casey workers are very locally oriented...

Characteristics: journeys to work from Casey LGA, 2006

32

Dandenong

Moorabbin

Box Hill

Heidelberg

Clayton

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

10.2

9.6

8.3

7.5

7.2

Radius from centroid of suburban employment centre (km)

Cent

reThere are multiple ‘CBDs’ in the suburbs....

Characteristics: required radius to equal jobs in CBD (km)

33

Suburban employment STRUCTURE

Great bulk of suburban jobs are not located in centres......

Suburban centres, 2006

34

1,950 zonesDensity: Z=0Employment: Z=0Min 2,300 jobs/centre

Clayton

Dandenong

Frankston

TullamarineGreensborough

Heidelberg

Moorabbin

Latrobe university

Broadmeadows

Footscray

Narre Warren

Sunshine RingwoodKew

Many centres are highly specialised in one industry...

Characteristics: Specialisation Index score – all employment

35

ST KILDASUNSHINE

FOOTSCRAYMOONEE PONDS

HEIDELBERGGREENSBOROUGH

PRESTONNORTHLAND

BROADMEADOWSGLEN IRIS

KEW/HAWTHORNDONCASTER

CLAYTONOAKLEIGH

GLEN WAVERLEYBOX HILL

BURWOOD EASTBLACKBURNBAYSWATER

WANTIRNA STHHEATHMONTRINGWOOD

CHELTENHAM/HIGHETTMOORABBIN

MALVERNMALVERN EAST

DANDENONGNARRE WARREN

FRANKSTONTULLAMARINE

LATROBE UNIVERSITY

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

Index score

Rest of suburbs

Nearly all centres specialised in at least one sector....

Characteristics: No. sectoral specialisations LQ>2x rest suburbs

36

MANUFACTURING

WHOLESALE

RETAIL

HOSPITALITY

TRANSPORT

COMMUNICATION

FINANCE

PROPERTY

GOVERNMENT

EDUCATION

HEALTH

CULTURE

PERSONAL

OTHER

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Many centres have high proportion of graduate jobs...

Characteristics: % all jobs occupied by a graduate

37

St Kild

a

Sunsh

ine

Footsc

ray

Moonee Ponds

Heidelb

erg

Greensb

orough

Preston

Northlan

d

Broad

meadows

Glen Iri

s

Kew/H

awthorn

Doncaster

Clayton

Oaklei

gh

Glen W

averl

ey

Box Hill

Burwood Ea

st

Blackb

urn

Baysw

ater

Wan

tirna S

th

Heathmont

Ringwood

Chelten

ham/H

ighett

Moorabbin

Malvern

Malvern

East

Danden

ong

Narre W

arren

Frankst

on

Tulla

marine

Latro

be Unive

rsity

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Perc

ent (

%)

Rest of suburbs

38

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Hospitality

Transport

Communication

Finance

Commercial

Government

Education

Community

Culture

Personal

Other

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Nearly all centres are specialised in graduates in at least one sector....

Characteristics: No. graduate specialisations by sector

39

Clayton

Tulla

marine

Kew/H

awthorn

Box Hill

St Kild

a

Moorabbin

Heidelb

erg

Malvern

Baysw

ater

Danden

ong

Footsc

ray

Glen W

averl

ey

Frankst

on

Glen Iri

s

Malvern

East

Chelten

ham/H

ighett

Ringwood

Wan

tirna S

th

Moonee Ponds

Latro

be Unive

rsity

Narre W

arren

Burwood Ea

st

Oaklei

gh

Greensb

orough

Broad

meadows

Blackb

urn

Heathmont

Sunsh

ine

Preston

Northlan

d0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Suburban centre

Perc

ent (

%)

MEAN SIZE ALL CENTRES

50% all jobs in suburban centres

Most jobs are in a small number of centres...

Characteristics: Centres ranked by size (%)

Most jobs are in a small number of centres...

Characteristics: Centres ranked by size (%)

40

Clayton

Tulla

marine

Kew/H

awthorn

Box Hill

St Kild

a

Moorabbin

Heidelb

erg

Malvern

Baysw

ater

Danden

ong

Footsc

ray

Glen W

averl

ey

Frankst

on

Glen Iri

s

Malvern

East

Chelten

ham/H

ighett

Ringwood

Wan

tirna S

th

Moonee Ponds

Latro

be Unive

rsity

Narre W

arren

Burwood Ea

st

Oaklei

gh

Greensb

orough

Broad

meadows

Blackb

urn

Heathmont

Sunsh

ine

Preston

Northlan

d0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Suburban centre

Perc

ent (

%)

MEAN SIZE ALL CENTRES

50% all jobs in suburban centres

41

Implications

What does it mean?

Suburbs are the key job arena Most jobs, graduates Economic structure

42

Implications

Suburbs are the key job arena Most jobs, graduates Economic structure

Location less important Car-based accessibility Consumer-oriented jobs CBD ‘first among equals’

43

Implications

Suburbs are the key job arena Most jobs, graduates Economic structure

Location less important Car-based accessibility Consumer-oriented jobs CBD ‘first among equals’

Need to rethink policy Suburban centres policy Transit & cars

44

45

Alan DaviesPollard Davies Pty Ltd

Jobs in the SUBURBSThe structure of suburban employment in Melbourne

Cultural industries biased toward inner city...

Inner city vs suburbs - selected cultural industries, 2006 (%)

46

Motion Picture, Radio and Tele-vision Services

Libraries, Museums and the Arts Sport and Recreation CULTURE & REC TOTAL0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Within inner city Suburbs

Perc

ent

Inner city share - all industries

Inner city more graduate-intensive than suburbs...

Graduate intensity, cultural industries, 2006 (%)

47

Manufac

turing

Wholes

aleReta

il

Hospita

lity

Transp

ort

Communication

Finan

ce

Commercial

Govern

ment

Educati

on

Community

Culture

& Rec

Personal

OTHER

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

39.1

23.3

Inner city Suburbs

Perc

ent