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Kathy Matsui Vice Chair Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Strive Masiyiwa Founder and Chairman, Econet Wireless Tony Blair Former Prime Minister, Great Britain and Northern Ireland Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global Economics & Professor, Stern School of Business, NYU Mike Milken Chairman, The Milken Institute

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Page 1: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Kathy

Matsui Vice Chair

Goldman Sachs Japan

Co., Ltd.

Strive

Masiyiwa Founder and

Chairman,

Econet Wireless

Tony Blair Former Prime Minister,

Great Britain and

Northern Ireland

Rudolph Tanzi Professor of Neurology,

Harvard Medical School; Vice

Chair, Neurology Research,

Massachusetts General

Hospital

Creating Global Prosperity

Nouriel Roubini Chairman

Roubini Global Economics &

Professor, Stern School of

Business, NYU

Mike Milken Chairman,

The Milken Institute

Page 2: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

1 billion net new jobs

Page 3: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

First American Political Cartoon

Ben Franklin, 1754: “Join or Die”

N.C

V.

M.

Page 4: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Government

Regions

Global Conference: The Power of Ideas

Page 5: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

P = Prosperity

Ft = Financial Technology

HC = Human Capital

SC = Social Capital

RA = Real Assets

P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi)

Page 6: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi) Human Capital

Social Capital

Real Assets

• Productivity: • Skills • Education • Training • Experience • Creativity • Habits • Values

• Rule of law • Property rights • Public health • Universal education • Government Leadership • Religious freedom • Police/fire protection • Cultural resources • Universal suffrage • Protection of creditors • Financial Standards

reporting standards • Transparent markets • Regulatory continuity

• Cash • Receivables • Real estate • Factories • Capital equipment • Roads • Buildings • Infrastructure

Financial Technology

• Innovative processes & components including:

• Convertible bonds • Preferred stock • High-yield bonds • Collateralized loans • Collateralized bonds • Equity-linked securities • Securitized obligations

(mortgages, credit cards, etc.)

• Derivatives

Page 7: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

“In Africa today, we recognize that trade and investment, and not aid, are pillars of development..”

H.E. Paul Kagame President, Republic of

Rwanda

Leadership

Page 8: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

“"Real leaders must be ready to sacrifice all for the freedom of their people.”

Nelson Mandela

Leadership

Page 9: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

“The art of leadership is saying no, not saying yes. It is very easy to say yes.”

Tony Blair

Leadership

Page 10: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Not living on

Farms 58%

1900

Farms 42%

2000

Farms 2%

Not living on

Farms 98%

U.S. Population Living On Farms

Living on

Farms 98%

1800

Not living on farms 2%

Page 11: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Each farm person fed about two others.

In 1900, 40 million Americans lived on farms and fed 76 million domestically plus 15 million people outside the U.S.

Page 12: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Each farm person fed about 340 others!

In 2000, 1.5 million Americans lived on farms and fed

290 million domestically plus 220 million others.

Page 13: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

NETWORK TELEVISION

Then NOW 1,785 broadcast channels

Page 14: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

CELLULAR

Then NOW

Page 15: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

MESSAGING

Then NOW

Page 16: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

READING

Then NOW

Page 17: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

NOW

VIDEO

Then

Page 18: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

RESEARCH

Then NOW

Page 19: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

VIDEO GAMES

Then NOW

Page 20: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

TELEPHONE

Then NOW

Page 21: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

MUSIC

Then NOW

Page 22: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

ORGANIZATION

Then NOW

Page 23: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

TRANSPORTATION

Then NOW

Page 24: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

All these things fit

in your pocket!

NOW

YOUR PERSONAL MEDIA

Page 25: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Singapore’s Orchard Road 1930s

Page 26: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Orchard Row Today

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27

Page 28: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

$2,255

Source: International Monetary Fund.

Do human capital strategies work?

Per Capita GDP

1960

$2,271

Singapore

Jamaica

$5,096

2015*

$57,442

Note: 2015 data projected.

Page 29: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Tokyo Post World War II

Page 30: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Tokyo Today

Page 31: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Seoul, South Korea 1960

Page 32: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Seoul Today

Page 33: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Shanghai 1987

Page 34: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Shanghai Today

Page 35: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Dubai 1990

Page 36: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Dubai Today

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37

• “Poverty was reduced

more in the last 50

years than in the

previous 500.”

Page 38: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global
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39

Page 40: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

The Growing Middle Class

Source: OECD.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Other

EU

United States

Japan

Other Asia

India

China

Share of global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050

Page 41: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for Next 50 Years

Democracy Disease Education Energy Environment Food Population Poverty Terrorism & War Water

Page 42: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

• Education

• Energy

Nobel Laureates in Science/Medicine

Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for Next 50 Years

Page 43: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Democracy Disease Education Energy Environment Food Population Poverty Terrorism & War Water

Education Education Education Energy Energy Energy Education Education Education Energy

Humanity’s Top 10 Solutions for Next 50 Years

Page 44: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Each life is priceless…

but in economic terms, over the past two

centuries, as much as 50% of all economic

growth can be traced to advances in health.

The Value of Health

Page 45: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Worldwide Life Expectancy Growth

Source: World Health Organization, World Health Statistics 2013

1820 1900 1950 2014

+5

+18

+22 +40

26 Years

31 Years

49 Years

71 Years

Page 46: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

0

20

40

60

80

100

1955 2014

Life Expectancy in East Asia

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition

Page 47: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Over the past 20 years, the risk of a pregnant woman passing AIDS to her child has dropped from 90% to less than 2%.

Source: March of Dimes; American Pregnancy Association

Page 48: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

35.3 Million People are Living with HIV Worldwide

More than two-thirds are in Sub-Saharan Africa

Nearly 30 million have died since the start of

the epidemic

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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49

Page 50: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

2001 -

2010

11.1%

10.5%

10.3%

8.9%

8.4%

8.2%

7.9%

7.9%

7.7%

7.6%

Angola

China

Myanmar

Nigeria

Ethiopia

Kazakhstan

Chad

Mozambique

Cambodia

Rwanda

2011 -

2020

8.8%

8.2%

7.8%

7.6%

7.2%

7.2%

7.1%

7.1%

7.0%

7.0%

Ethiopia

Mozambique

Myanmar

Congo, D.R.

Cambodia

Rwanda

India

Uzbekistan

China

Tanzania

Source: The Economist; IMF (excludes countries with populations<10 million) 2/6/14

Annual Average GDP Growth

World’s Fastest Growing Economies

Page 51: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Skilled and Unskilled Jobs

60%

20% 20%

Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled

15% 20%

65%

Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled

1950 Today

Page 52: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

Prosperity = a meaningful life

What is prosperity?

Page 53: Creating Global Prosperity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/Conferences/Global... · Creating Global Prosperity Nouriel Roubini Chairman Roubini Global

The 21st century is being

defined by a worldwide

competition for

human capital.