cppr quarterly lecture by dr. sandeep shastri, on emerging trends in elections
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CPPR 6th Quarterly Lecture by Dr. Sandeep Shastri on "Emerging Electoral Landscape : Analysis of Indian Democracy"TRANSCRIPT
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 1
Emerging Electoral Landscape :
Analysis of Indian Democracy
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
SANDEEP SHASTRIPro Vice Chancellor, Jain University
National Coordinator, Lokniti Network
JAIN UNIVERSITY
2
Approaching the Theme
Using the `Window` Offered by 2014
Elections
Will 2014 confirm existing trends or
…
…is 2014 in any way
different?
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 3
Nature and Structure of the Contest
• States at the Centre• An attempt to make it a
Plebiscitary style race?
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 4
Is there a generation gap?
•What does AAP represent?
•Citizen response?
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
5
Three Visible Trends
Poor Rating of the UPA and its Implications
Consolidation by the NDA in its Strongholds
An emerging non-Congress, non-BJP alliance – Third Front , Federal Front
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
6
Explaining the Trends • Vote Share Shift
• Explaining this shift
• Implications
April 7, 2023
UPA
NDA
Others
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-8
11
-3
Series1
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
7April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
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UPA
Manmohan Singh
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Intensity of Dissatisfaction
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 9
Overall North Central West East South
26
22
2730 30
23
52
59
53 5250
46
Should UPA get another chance Yes No
JAIN UNIVERSITY
10April 7, 2023
45%
30%
6%
19%
Image of UPAVery Corrupt Somewhat Corrupt Not at all corrupt Don’t Know
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 11
43%
29%
23%5%
Why dissatisfied
Lack of Development/ poor governance Price Rise CorruptionOther
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 12
Metro India Town and Cities
Villages Upper Class Middle Class Lower Class Poor
-29
-22
-12
-19
-15
-12
-16
Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
13
Support for NDA• Positive image of the State
Governments
• Impact among young voters– 18-25 : 15% – 26-35 : 8 %– 36-45 : 9%– 46-55 :4%– Above 56 -2%
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 14
The `Modi` factor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
27
14 1310
1310
8
70
Modi Rahul
Party
Local candidate
PM Candidate
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
45
27
16
43
23
28
BJP supporters All
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
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Third Front/ Federal Front
Keeping their
Options Open • The Numbers
Game • Pre and
Post Election Allies
The Internal
Contradictions
• Divided we Stand …
United we Fall
• State Level Contests
AAP as a factor • Its Strategy • Its Appeal
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
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To Summarize Has the NDA
peaked too
early ?
Nature of Alliances (open
or tacit) that are emerging
Candidate
Choice
How close is the front
runner to 272
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
April 7, 2023 17
Post Poll Scenario • A NDA led government
– X factors – Expectations
• A Non Congress, Non BJP coalition
– Implications – Stability
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
JAIN UNIVERSITY
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Questions Comments
April 7, 2023 6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)