cppa past/ongoing activities - ocean-atmosphere interactions - address systematic ocean-atmosphere...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities
- Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions- Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases
- Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC)
- Land-Atmosphere Interactions- Understand and model land-atmosphere interactions
- Land surface model- Land data assimilation system
- Develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models and analyses
- Regional Reanalysis and regional climate modeling
- Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions- Evaluate and improve the observing and coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system
- North American monsoon experiment (NAME)- Western mountain hydroclimate- Drought and climate extremes predictability
- Water Resource Applications- interpret climate forecasts for better water resource management
- hydrologic predictability- improve hydrologic forecasting- develop water resource decision support tools
![Page 4: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Expected short-term CPPA Achievements
• reduced ocean-atmosphere model biases
• improved land surface model as part of global climate models
• operational global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) which provides initial land states for GCM
• improved seasonal predictions via regional climate models
• improved warm season precipitation prediction
• better drought monitoring and prediction products
• improved applications of climate forecasts for various decision support
![Page 5: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Opportunities in next 10 years(from advances in the entire science and technology communities)
• new and improved observations and data• for process studies; better initial conditions; model validation
• increased computing power• higher resolution models; larger ensemble runs;
• increased complexity of models• process-resolved models, e.g., cloud-resolving models, dynamic vegetation
• modern data assimilation
![Page 6: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
CPPA Long-term Directionto address remaining uncertainties
• focus on regional impacts of global & large scale variability
• study and simulate fine-scale, more complex physical processes • predictability of the coupled climate/Earth system• clouds and land-atmosphere coupling; • meso-scale air-sea interaction
• field experiments in support of model improvements (CPT approach)
• continue to transfer research into NOAA operations
• expand applications beyond water resource management• fire• agriculture
![Page 7: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
CPPA FY07-09 Priorities • Drought predictability and prediction
• Large scale forcing; regional and small scale feedbacks;
• American Monsoon monitoring and prediction
• Land surface processes and modeling
• Tropical Pacific SST prediction• double ITCZ; eastern ocean boundary SST;
• Field experiments (using CPT approach)• Western Mountain Hydroclimate Studies (winter season)• VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)
• Improve applications of climate forecast for water resource management
![Page 8: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Western Mountain Hydroclimatology
Modeled snowpack andrunoff improved with
topographic Influences (Leung et al.)
Monsoon mountainrainfall very sensitiveto model parameterizations(Gochis et al.)
Challenge and future studies:
• Observations and data analyses– orographic precipitation including assimilating remote sensing data– hydroclimatic processes in western mountains in cold seasons
• Prediction– downscaling precipitation forecasts from large scale to sub-basin– seasonal predictability in mountain regions (local and remote forcing)– representation of subgrid variability of hydrologic variables (precipitation, snow, togography, vegetation) in climate models
- A planning meeting will be held in 2006 to developimplementation strategies- will leverage community and interagency effort
![Page 10: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Studies (VOCALS)
• VOCALS is an international program for studies of the eastern tropical Pacific climate
• VOCALS is a post EPIC study
• Science goals emphasize: • Interactions between the climate in the southeastern Pacific and remote climates, particularly over South America and its monsoon system, • Biases in coupled GCMs and effects on seasonal and interannual predictability,• Local air-sea interactions, including stratocumulus clouds.
![Page 11: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Main Users of CPPA Program • NWS operations
• NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and GFDL climate model• NWS/OHD & RFCs hydrologic prediction system
Information needs: improved understanding and modeling of climate processes and improved forecast skill
• Water resource managersInformation needs: downscaling of climate forecasts and regionalized forecasts
• Fire manager, agriculture, …Information needs:
![Page 12: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
How to measure program progress? • number of new/improved products
• new/improved model components and schemes
• reports on predictability studies
• demonstration of improved simulation/forecast skills
![Page 13: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
How to engage stakeholders?
• How does CPPA engage stakeholders and end users?• direct engagement:
• fund projects to directly work with stakeholders• CPPA Core Project to directly transfer research into NWS operations
• indirect engagement thru partnership with other programs, such as, SARP, NCTP• example: experimental hydrologic prediction system
• How to quantify the impacts of CPPA on stakeholders?• number of case studies and successful stories
![Page 14: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CPPA International Components
• meetings for scientific planning, field coordination, and post-field data set development, analyses, and modeling
• travel of international PIs and their students to participate in the field and to enable joint research among investigators
• transfer of research into other countries– Expand LDAS and hydrologic Prediction system into Mexico– Test Eta model in S. America
• forecaster exchanges
• collaborative deployment and operation of observing systems
• cooperative development and provision of data sets
• observing system design and transition to operations
![Page 15: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
CPPA Educational Components
• training courses in observations, analysis and modeling
• graduate education opportunities at US institutions
![Page 16: CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070401/56649f165503460f94c2baa0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Issues
- Does NOAA Climate Prediction & Project Program support international climate operations/services?
- NOAA needs a mechanism for operational organizations to take over long-term research data development so that research funds can be released to support new research.