covid-19 modeling july 24, 2020...presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 national data 3 4...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020
Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov
![Page 2: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
National Data
![Page 3: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
4 million 15 days
3 million 28 days
2 million 43 days
1 million 99 days
United States Reports 4 Million COVID-19 Cases Days To Next Million New Cases
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project - July 23, 2020
![Page 4: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
![Page 5: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University - July 16, 2020
![Page 6: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
National Trends
Updated: 7/21/20Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project - July 23, 2020
![Page 7: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
COVID-19 Hospilizations per Million (7-Day Avg)
Vermont lowest at 4.34 per million
Hawaii and Kansas do not report data
![Page 8: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
COVID-19 Deaths per Million (7-Day Avg)
Vermont lowest at 0
![Page 9: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Regional Data
![Page 11: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec
Regional Monitoring: New Cases Last 7 Days
Positive Cases July 17th to July 23rd
8.13% Increase in New Confirmed Cases
Positive Cases July 9th to July 16th
![Page 12: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Regional Monitoring: Week Over Week New Case Growth Since May 21, 2020
Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec
Third week of new case growth within the Northeast
21.89%
![Page 13: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Modeling Regional Disease Growth
![Page 14: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Modeling Regional Disease Growth
Decreasing
Increasing
Flat
Columbia University
Projected Case Growth by County
July 19, 2020 to August 8, 2020
![Page 15: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
RESTART VERMONT
1. Syndromic Surveillance2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity
Reopening Metrics
![Page 16: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance● Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis● Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days
Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020
![Page 17: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates ● Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)● Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to <30% of open ICU beds
Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020
![Page 18: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests● Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case● Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results
Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020
![Page 19: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%
Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020
![Page 20: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%
Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020
![Page 21: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Mobility Data: Small Weekly Increases in Movement
Source: Descartes Labs – July 20, 2020
![Page 22: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22Source: VDH - July 23, 2020
![Page 23: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 24, 2020; tests measured as results reported to VDH by day
![Page 24: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Travel Policy Update
![Page 25: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Updated Travel Map
Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 24, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)
![Page 26: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Improving: Moving from Yellow or Red to Green Worsening: Moving to Yellow or Red
![Page 27: COVID-19 Modeling July 24, 2020...Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov 2 National Data 3 4 million 15 days 3 million 28 days 2 million 43 days 1 million 99 days United States](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050520/5fa3c79f8e6c8d3bc166750b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Updated Travel Map