covid-19 infects the u.s. economy - csbs...2020/04/07 · jan-67 jan-70 jan-73 jan-76 jan-79 jan-82...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. EconomyBy Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. CSBS Sr Economist & Director of Research
CSBS Economic Insights WebcastApril 7, 2020
![Page 2: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy
How/When did COVID-19 Infect the U.S. Economy?
Are We in a Recession?
What’s Being Done to Help the Economy?
When will this End?
![Page 3: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy
How/When did COVID-19 Infect the U.S. Economy?
Are We in a Recession?
What’s Being Done to Help the Economy?
When will this End?
![Page 4: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
A Quick Look Back to late 2019
![Page 5: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
In Conclusion…
• US Economy growing moderately• GDP ~2.0%; Unemployment ~3.6%; Inflation ~1.9%; wages rising ~3.0%
• Recession Ahead?• Manufacturing weaker; Labor quality/trade/global concerns; Yield
curve flat; Depends on consumers, confidence, and BOBs• Banking
• Consolidation continues; Banks appear to be in good shape• The Fed
• Dual mandate success; Interest rate changes are following market expectations
FROM THE CSBS SCOTTSDALE MEETING, DECEMBER 2019
![Page 6: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
FROM THE CSBS SCOTTSDALE MEETING, DECEMBER 2019In Conclusion…
• US Economy growing moderately• GDP ~2.0%; Unemployment ~3.6%; Inflation ~1.9%; wages rising ~3.0%
• Recession Ahead?• Manufacturing weaker; Labor quality/trade/global concerns; Yield
curve flat; Depends on consumers, confidence, and BOBs• Banking
• Consolidation continues; Banks appear to be in good shape• The Fed
• Dual mandate success; Interest rate changes are following market expectations
BOLTOut of
BLUEthe
![Page 7: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy
How/When did COVID-19 Infect the U.S. Economy?
Are We in a Recession?
What’s Being Done to Help the Economy?
When will this End?
![Page 9: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
March Madness Cancelled: US Recession BeginsShanghai Disney Closed
![Page 10: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
NBER Recession Definition--- "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales"
![Page 11: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016Annu
alize
d Pe
rcen
t Cha
nge
U.S. GDP Growth
![Page 12: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Jan-
67
Jan-
70
Jan-
73
Jan-
76
Jan-
79
Jan-
82
Jan-
85
Jan-
88
Jan-
91
Jan-
94
Jan-
97
Jan-
00
Jan-
03
Jan-
06
Jan-
09
Jan-
12
Jan-
15
Jan-
18
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Record high before 2020: 695,000 in October 1982
3,307,000 for week ending March 21, 2020
Financial Crisis high: 665,000 in March 2009
Data Source: U.S. Department of Labor
6,648,000 for week ending March 28, 2020
![Page 15: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Daily Index of Consumer Sentiment(7-day moving average)
Source: Morning Consulthttps://morningconsult.com/form/econ-intel-global-consumer-confidence-tracking-demo-request/
March Sadness Begins
![Page 20: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Weekly Economic Index
March 21, 2020
Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
![Page 22: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Source: Lewis, Mertens and Stock, “Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, March 30, 2020
![Page 23: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
122 121 123
91
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
CBSI and Uncertainty
BCu MPu RBu OEu CSu PRu FVu CBSI
Data Source: CSBS
![Page 26: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Business Conditions
BCp BCn BCi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Monetary Policy
MPp MPn MPi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Regulatory Burden
RBp RBn RBi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Operations Expansion
OEp OEn OEi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Capital Spending
CSp CSn CSi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Profitability
PRp PRn PRi
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Franchise Value
FVp FVn FVi
122 121 12391
-50
0
50
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
CBSI & Uncertainty
BCu MPu RBu OEu
CSu PRu FVu CBSI
Data Source: CSBS
![Page 27: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Data Source: CSBS
117
1811
39
5136
7731
3219
6141
7439
6627
6356
3543
1963
4527
3634
1447
1042
3231
1319
03
2353
320
BC Q4BC Q1
MP Q4MP Q1
RB Q4RB Q1
CS Q4CS Q1
OE Q4OE Q1
PR Q4PR Q1
FV Q4FV Q1
Community Bank Sentiment Index2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1
Positive Neutral Negative Uncertain
Index9760
108
Index
69
7178
138
177128
109
158121
CBSI Q1:12391
IndexIndex
66
IndexIndexIndex
117
CBSI Q4:
-37
-49
-21
+6
-37
-32
-40
-44
![Page 28: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Data Source: CSBS
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
CBSI by CSBS District
Northeast Midwest South Great Plains West
![Page 29: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil and Gas
Tourism
Restaurants
Retail
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Consumer
Construction
Prof. Services
Health Care
CBSI: Outlook for Economic Segments
Negative (1) Slightly Negative (2) Neutral (3) Slightly Positive (4) Positive (5)
Rating
3.61
3.19
2.31
1.97
2.76
2.41
2.70
3.14
2.49
2.86
Data Source: CSBS
![Page 30: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
1
2
3
4
2/26 - 3/3 3/4 - 3/10 3/11 - 3/17 3/18 - 3/24 3/25 - 3/31
Aver
age
Wee
kly
Ratin
g (1
=Neg
ativ
e an
d 5=
Post
ive)
Bankers' Outlook on Sector Performance Declined During MarchSource: CSBS Community Bank Sentiment Index (CBSI) for Q1 2020
Health Care
ConsumerManufacturing
Restaurants
Retail
Construction
Agriculture
Oil and Gas
Tourism
Prof Services
Data Source: CSBS
↓ 0.62
↓ 0.16
↓ 1.00
↓ 1.00
↓ 1.17
↓ 1.07↓ 1.65↓ 1.01
↓ 1.58↓ 1.45
Change from first week in March to last week in March
![Page 31: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Local Economy
State Economy
National Economy
Global Economy
CBSI: Expected Impact from Coronavirus Outbreak on…
Exteremely Negative (1) Very Negative (2) Somewhat Negative (3)
Not So Negative (4) Not at All Negative (5) Unsure
Rating
3.20
2.93
2.51
2.05
Data Source: CSBS
![Page 34: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
1
2
3
4
2/26 - 3/3 3/4 - 3/10 3/11 - 3/17 3/18 - 3/24 3/25 - 3/31
Aver
age
Wee
kly
Ratin
g (1
= Ex
trem
ely
Neg
ativ
e an
d 5=
Not
at A
ll N
egat
ive)
Bankers' Outlook on COVID19's Impact on Economic Activity Declined During March
Source: CSBS Community Bank Sentiment Index (CBSI) for Q1 2020
Local Economy
State Economy
US Economy
Global Economy
Data Source: CSBS
↓ 1.26
↓ 1.30
↓ 1.09
↓ 0.85
Change from first week in March to last week in March
![Page 35: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy
How/When did COVID-19 Infect the U.S. Economy?
Are We in a Recession?
What’s Being Done to Help the Economy?
When will this End?
![Page 36: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Federal Reserve Interventions• Lowered administered rates• Quantitative easing• Repo market injection • Swap lines with other Central Banks• Facilities to provide liquidity, credit and funding
• Commercial Paper, Primary Dealer, MMMF,
State/Municipals, FIMA Repo
![Page 38: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy
How/When did COVID-19 Infect the U.S. Economy?
Are We in a Recession?
What’s Being Done to Help the Economy?
When will this End?
![Page 40: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
How/When Does the Pandemic End?• Herd Immunity• Flatten the Curve• Establish Protections• Loosen Restrictions • Rebuild/Remake
![Page 41: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Three Economic Scenarios (Conference Board)• v-Shaped Recovery (mild)…May reboot• V-Shaped Recovery (modest)…Summertime comeback• U-Shaped Recovery (severe)…Fall recovery (or beyond)
![Page 42: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
-2.1
-16.5
10.8
3.4
-5.8
-35.6
20.3
14.8
-3.8
-29.9
-3.3
18.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP Growth Scenarios, Annualized QoQ rates
v-May reboot V-Summer U-Fall
v-May reboot V-Summer U-FallPeak Cases mid-April May June/July
2020 GDP -1.6% -5.5% -6.0%Peak Unemployment 8% 15% 15%
![Page 43: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Guide to the Great Unknown• Increased Personal Awareness• The New Patriots • Tech Disruption Alters Work and Play (again)• Bigger Government• Looking Inward
![Page 44: COVID-19 Infects the U.S. Economy - CSBS...2020/04/07 · Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fb9f899669a9f38303549e1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Questions?
44