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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update
A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL PartnershipMay 19, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
1167.0
65.9175.3
34.886.1
231.4
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
May 11, 2020
1473.6
74.7195.4
47.1122.4
282.5
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
May 18, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 cases by race/ethnicity and ageNM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Projected doubling time
Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
Metro, 8.5
Northeast, 11.2
Northwest, 6.4
Southeast, 12.2
Southwest, 10.1
New Mexico, 7.4
0
2
4
6
8
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12
14
4/18
/202
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4/19
/202
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4/22
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4/23
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4/25
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2020
5/2/
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5/5/
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5/6/
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5/8/
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5/9/
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/202
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Num
ber o
f Day
s fo
r Cas
e Co
unt t
o Do
uble
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.18.2020 at 8:08 AM, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
223.1
10.519.9
4.8 12.9
37.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New MexicoHosp
italiz
atio
ns p
er 1
00,0
00 P
opul
atio
n
New Mexico Health Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations by age groupNM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM
Age group (years)
# Hospitalized cases (%)
<1 1 (0.14)1-4 2 (0.28)
5-14 0 (0)15-24 14 (2)25-34 55 (7.8)35-44 91 (12.9)45-54 112 (15.8)55-64 175 (24.8)65-74 127 (18)75-84 76 (10.7)85+ 54 (7.6)
All ages 707
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 age-specific hospitalization rates per 100,000 population
Source: NM Indicator-Based Information System (IBIS) was used for 2018 population estimates for each age group
NM-EDSS on 5/10/2020 at 8:23 AM
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations by race/ethnicity
Note: 4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information
NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM
Race/ethnicity # Hospitalized cases (%)
American Indian or Alaska
Native472 (67.1)
Asian 5 (0.71)
Black or African American
10 (1.4)
Hispanic or Latino
116 (16.5)
White 99 (14.1)
Other Race 1 (0.14)
Total 703
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalization rate by race/ethnicity per 100,000 population
Note:4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information1 hospitalized case was excluded because it was “Other Race” and there is no population estimate for “Other Race” in NM-IBIS
NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM
Race/ethnicity Age-adjusted rate per 100,000 population
American Indian or Alaska Native 261.3
Asian 12.2
Black or African American 27.4
Hispanic or Latino 11.7
White 7.9
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Summary statistics of COVID-19 hospitalizations by race/ethnicity and age
NM-EDSS on 5/15/2020 at 10:00 AM
Note: 4 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population
Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.17.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
33.7
0.54.0
0.52.0
10.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico
Dea
ths
per 1
00,0
00 P
opul
atio
n (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
New Mexico Health Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Crude death rate: COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 by U.S. states
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Number of COVID-19 crude mortality rate by age group
3.9
20.6
54.9
196.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
<65 65-74 75-84 85+
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Number of COVID-19 age-adjusted mortality rate by race/ethnicity
79.6
3.38.6
4.2 5.3-
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
AIAN Asian/NHOPI Black/AfAm Hispanic White Other/Unk
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 death by age and race/ethnicity
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death
6.3
1.6
5.9
3.63.3
5.76.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
New Mexico Health Region
Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 5.17.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case fatality rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death by U.S. states
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Key points
• COVID-19 prevalence continues to increase in New Mexicoo #30 in the U.S.o Socorro, Sandoval, Cibola, Guadalupe, San Juan, and McKinley counties have prevalence rates higher
than NM overallo AI/AN have highest burden of disease across all health regionso Median age of cases is similar across all race/ethnicity groups except White, which is higher (older
population)o Southwest region’s doubling time has increased since last week since last week (9.7 days)
• Hospitalization rates continue to increase in the NW and Metro Regionso Ventilator use remains at ~25% of hospitalized caseso County-specific rates are similar to the 6 counties with the highest prevalence rateso The elderly and AI/AN groups continue to have the highest rates of hospitalizationso Hospitalized cases who self-identify as White tend to be older than other race/ethnicity groups
• Mortality rates and case-fatality rates (CFRs) are highest in the NW region followed by Metro Regiono #29 in the U.S.o Highest in 85+ age group and AI/AN populationo Deaths by race/ethnicity and age indicate that the White population tends to be oldero NM CFR is similar to U.S. CFR after age-adjustment
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: modeling update
As of May 19, 2020Epidemiology & Response Division
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The effective rate of transmission for the state has remained static for the last two weeks.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.
1.13
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Southeast region now has the highest rate of transmission at 1.22.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective1.09 ↑
Central R_effective1.07 ↓
Southeast R_effective 1.22 ↑
SouthwestR_effective 1.17 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 1.15 ↓ Low Level Endemic
1-1.1
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15
Requiring further mitigation >1.15
Key
As of May 11, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case counts in the Metro region have been slowly declining for the month of May.
0
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Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020 Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case counts in the Northwest region seem to have plateaued.
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03/0
9/20
03/1
1/20
03/1
3/20
03/1
5/20
03/1
7/20
03/1
9/20
03/2
1/20
03/2
3/20
03/2
5/20
03/2
7/20
03/2
9/20
03/3
1/20
04/0
2/20
04/0
4/20
04/0
6/20
04/0
8/20
04/1
0/20
04/1
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04/1
4/20
04/1
6/20
04/1
8/20
04/2
0/20
04/2
2/20
04/2
4/20
04/2
6/20
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04/3
0/20
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6/20
05/0
8/20
05/1
0/20
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2/20
05/1
4/20
05/1
6/20
05/1
8/20
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020
Northwest Rest of New Mexico 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Northwest) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Rest of New Mexico)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The spike in R-effective for the Southeast region may be in response to an increase of cases in one county in this region with relatively few cases.
0
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16
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – May 18, 2020 Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
While daily case counts for the Southwest region may be stabilizing, the down-stream impact of 2 local outbreaks may not yet be revealed.
0
10
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30
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Southwest Region Daily Case Count by Collection Date – May 18, 2020
Southwest Southwest without outbreaks 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Southwest) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Southwest without outbreaks)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospital resource use, to date, statewide has not risen exponentially.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Relaxation of social distancing measures and practices may sharply increase bed use over the summer.
Assumptions:• Relaxation begins on
5/18.• Absent restrictions for
60 days, followed by reintroduction of restrictions for 30 days.
• R-effective becomes 50% worse compared to April 1.Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 19, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slide
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 5.18.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.13
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 2
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 1.1% ICU 0.7%Vent Rate 64.5% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.1%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days