covey consulting pty. ltd. future applications for wood – opportunities and limitations geoff...

Covey Consulting Pty. Ltd.

Future applications for wood – opportunities

and limitations

Geoff Covey, Reg Harvey and Dennis Shore

Covey Consulting Pty Ltd

1


Looking to the future

• Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, and has a history of failure.

• The further one tries to look ahead the harder it becomes – but the less people around at the end to tell you you were wrong!

•Compare 1906 with today, then think about the next 100 years.


1. Forestry.• Environmental change.• No more oil.

2.Forest products.• Solid products.• Fibres.• Fuels.• Silvichemicals.


Forestry

•Not really our area, but some predictions possible.

•Clearer distinction between conservation and production forests.

•Much more active forest management – real tree farms, but on increasingly marginal land.

•Greater diversity – to suit particular applications – including some totally artificial species.


Changing environmentIs the effect real? Is it caused by carbon dioxide?

Not today’s topic.




Even if unreal, precautionary changes will be made.





If real – and due to CO2 – some forest will be required just to fix carbon – the resulting timber cannot be burned or left to decay.






Need to reduce fossil fuel use will encourage use of timber in place of metals (and perhaps polymers)






Need to reduce fossil fuel use will encourage use of timber in place of metals (and perhaps polymers)

Even if not due to CO2 – need forests that can resist many decades of erratic weather.


No more oil!

Oil reserves are finite – will probably be largely depleted in 50-100 years.

For stationary power – hydro, nuclear, maybe coal are more likely than wood.

For transport fuels wood has better prospects.

Ultimate choice will depend on whether green house gases are also a problem.


FOREST PRODUCTSSolid products

Not our area, but a few safe bets:

•Sawmilling – less energy and waste

•Improved sawn timber dimensional stability.

•Chemical treatment for customised surface properties.

•Greatly improved reconstituted products – better structural strength.

•More timber for enclosures and structures.


FIBRESDespite decline in some segments, packaging and hygiene products and increasing prosperity in China and India will ensure overall demand increase for some time yet.

Plantations for custom fibres, uniformity and certified sustainable products.

Improved use of thinnings (too wet for fuel) – hardwood substitute from young softwood.


But not all from wood

Sugar cane for ethanol and fibre co-production.

Kenaf for long fibre bast and cellulosic core for fuel.

Agricultural residues – to improve utilisation.

Shorter lead time to establish non-woods plantations – very attractive in a changing world – but less drought resistant than trees.


FUELS

For a variety of reasons, there will be an increasing demand for renewable energy

• For static power generation

• For transport


Static power

Plenty of alternatives to wood:

• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some more practical on a large scale than others).

• Nuclear – not renewable, but low impact.


Static power

Plenty of alternatives to wood:

• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some more practical on a large scale than others).

• Nuclear – not renewable, but low impact.

Wood fired power stations already under consideration. They have advantage of ‘available when required’, but best for base load power.


Wood for static power has its problems

•Wet, especially if harvested young, and difficult to dry economically on a very large scale.

•Very large plantation areas and associated logistics for large scale operation.

Combustion of bagasse

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Moisture content %

Th

erm

al e

ffic

incy

%


Transport fuel

Ethanol by hydrolysis and fermentation probably most promising at the moment.

It has operated on a massive scale in Brazil, and on substantial scale in other countries.

Cellulose to ethanol has a stoichiometric yield of 56.8% - perhaps 53% in practice?

Large land areas required.


Ethanol for Australia?

Annual oil consumption 50 mill t = 2.1x109 GJ/a

Ethanol required to replace all oil 79 mill t/a.





At 53% yield, cellulose required 150 mill t/a.






For typical cellulose and basic dens 600 mill m3/a






For typical cellulose and basic dens 600 mill m3/a

Assume 20 m3/ha – year (marginal land, uncertain rain fall) New forest required for ethanol

33 million ha


Is there room?

Total area of Australia is 7,686,850 km2

Current total forest area 166 million ha

Of which plantation is 1.6 million ha


Is there room?




Additional plantations for ethanol

33 million ha = 4.3% of all land


Is there room?




Additional plantations for ethanol

33 million ha = 4.3% of all land

Not impossible – but a very substantial change in land use


This is not the whole story

On the plus side – growth rates and cellulose yields should improve by 2100




BUT significant energy required to run the forests and harvesting, the ethanol production and ‘refining’ and distribution of product.





Ethanol from corn gives only 1.3 times as much energy as it uses.






Ethanol from sugar cane – ratio is 8.3






Ethanol from sugar cane – ratio is 8.3

For wood ???


The balanceBiomass type (whole biomass used)

Biomass Yield t/ha-y

Ethanol L/t

Ethanol L/ha-y

Ethanol Net L/ha-y #

Corn 25.0 366 9150 2123 Wheat 8.3 420 3486 Sugar cane 27.4 531 16128 14024 Aspen poplar

14.8 398 7170

Douglas fir 6.1 463 3700 Eucalyptus 39.5 502 24100 ???

Different growth rate figures from previous example


The challenges

Less energy intensive wood production (despite higher growth rates).

Higher cellulose (and sucrose) content crops.

Crops that suit future weather patterns.


SILVICHEMICALS

Reducing availability of petroleum.

Increasing demand for cellulose for paper and ethanol.

Large quantities of by product lignin available as a feed-stock.


YOU CAN MAKE EVERYTHING OUT OF

LIGNIN – EXCEPT MONEY


The challenges

For scientist – new and better processes

For engineers – better efficiency and economics.

For business – develop markets and take the plunge.


Perhaps?

1.Don’t treat lignin as a product – think of it a feedstock.Break it down to simple aromatics and alcohols and build chemicals from them.


Perhaps?


2.Develop new, high performance polymers from lignin – exploiting its properties instead of fighting them.


Perhaps?


2.Develop new, high performance polymers from lignin – exploiting its properties instead of fighting them.

3.Develop new polymers which bond well with cellulose fibres (chemistries are compatible) and make new lignin-cellulose composites.


CONCLUSIONS

The next 100 years should see increasing demand for wood – both for some of the old purposes, and for some new ones.


CONCLUSIONS


Enhanced performance will be demanded.


CONCLUSIONS


Enhanced performance will be demanded.

There will be plenty of work for wood scientists!

covey consulting pty. ltd. future applications for wood – opportunities and limitations geoff...

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