coupling for esm: the igsm - stanford university · probablistic projections snowmass week 2 /...
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CouplingforESM:TheIGSM
ErwanMonier
Massachuse9sIns:tuteofTechnology
July27,2016
Snowmass2016Week2
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THEIGSM
Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints
CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.
Hydrology/ water resources
Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity
Human health effects
Implementation of feedbacks is under development
Exchanges utilized in targeted studies
Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system
Earth System
Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,
Emissions & Land Use
Human System
Land use change
Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,
Physical & Chemical Processes
Ocean2- or 3-Dimensional
Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice Processes
Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes
LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)
Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)
Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land
Sea level change
Climate/ energy demand
Solar forcing
Volcanic forcing
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
EconomicProjec:on&PolicyAnalysis(EPPA):
MITEarthSystemModel(MESM):
• EarthSystemModelofIntermediateComplexity(EMIC)
• Land,atmosphereandocean• Fullcarboncycle• Atmosphericchemistry
• Globalmodel• Mul:-region(18)• Mul:-sector• Recursivedynamiccomputable
generalequilibrium(CGE)model
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THEMESM
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
OCEANWEST EAST
DEPTH
ATMOSPHERE
SOUTH
NORTH
HEIGHT
LAND
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PROBABLISTICPROJECTIONS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
§ Computa:onalefficiencyo Acentury-longruntakes12hourson1cpuo Caneasilyrun1000ssimula:ons
§ Flexibilitytochangekeyclimateparameterso climatesensi:vityo strengthofaerosolforcingo oceanheatuptakerateo strengthofcarboncycle
Ø PDFsofclimateparametersØ Probabilis:cprojec:onsofclimatevariables
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STATISTICALDOWNSCALING
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
Pa9ernscalingmethod:
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WATERIMPACTS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
BASIN-SCALE WATER
BALANCE AND
STRESS
WATER SYSTEM
MANAGEMENT ROUTING
RUNOFF
MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL
DEMAND
IRRIGATION DEMAND
ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS
POPULATION GDP
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
EPPA
ECONOMIC PROJECTION
AND POLICY
ANALYSIS
MESM
MIT EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
Fantetal(2016)Projec:onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.
Monthlyclimatevariables,biasedcorrected
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DISTRIBUTIONSOFWATERIMPACTS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
Fantetal(2016)Projec:onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.
CHANGEINWATERSTRESSINDEX(WSI)BY2050
INDIA CHINA
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DYNAMICALDOWNSCALING
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
MITIGSM-CAMframework:
Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints
CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.
Hydrology/ water resources
Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity
Human health effects
Implementation of feedbacks is under development
Exchanges utilized in targeted studies
Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system
Earth System
Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,
Emissions & Land Use
Human System
Land use change
Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,
Physical & Chemical Processes
Ocean3-Dimensional Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice
Processes (MITgcm)
Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes
LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)
Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)
Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land
Sea level change
Climate/ energy demand
Wind stress
Solar forcing
Volcanic forcing
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, SOx, BC and O3
Land use change
SSTs andsea ice cover
CAM3
Atmosphere3-Dimensional Dynamical
& Physical Processes
LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)
Coupled Land and Atmosphere
Solar forcing
Volcanic forcing
3DatmosphericmodelisdrivenbyIGSM:- SSTandseaice- greenhousegasesconcentra:ons- aerosolsconcentra:ons- Landuselandcoverchange
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AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHFRAMEWORK
Concentration Response Functions
Future Health Incidence Rate New Health Incidence Rate
Valuation (Cost of Illness, Lost Income, Contingent Valuation)
Economic Impact by Policy
Future Population Demographics
Change in O3 & PM Concentrations
populationpollution
Climate(IGSM-CAM)
Air Quality(CAM-Chem)
Population(BenMAP)
Health Incidence(BenMAP)
Valuation(BenMAP)
Change in Climate & Emissions
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
3-hourly3Dmeteorologicalfields(temp,humidity,wind…)nonbiasedcorrected
Anthropogenicandbiogenicemissions
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AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
Avoideddeaths lifeyearssaved(thousands)
2050 11,000(4,000−19,000) 570(210−940)
2100 52,000(19,000−87,000) 1,300(240−2,500)
2050 13,000(4,800-22,000) 620(230−1,000)
2100 57,000(21,000−95,000) 1,400(240−2,600)
REF->POL4.5
REF->POL3.7
Garcia-Menendezetal(2015)USairqualityandhealthbenefitsfromavoidedclimatechangeundergreenhousegasmi:ga:on.Environmentalscience&technology,49(13),pp.7580-7588.
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AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
Garcia-Menendezetal(2016)NaturalvariabilityinmodelingassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonU.S.ozonepollu:on.NatureClimateChange,underreview.
Changesinsummer8-h-maxO3by2100
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AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
Garcia-Menendezetal(2016)NaturalvariabilityinmodelingassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonU.S.ozonepollu:on.NatureClimateChange,underreview.
Changesinsummer8-h-maxO3by2100
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SUMMARYOFDOWNSCALINGMETHOD
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
APPROACH STRENGTHS LIMITATIONS
IGSM-Pa9ernscaling(sta:s:calapproach)
• Canemulatemul:plemodels• Computa:onallyefficient• Canderivefulldistribu:ons
• LimitedtoTandP• Limitedtomonthly:mescale• Cannotsimulatechangesin
variabilityandextremes
IGSM-CAM(dynamicalapproach)
• Canexplorenaturalvariabilityandextremesevents
• NotlimitedtoT,P(candrivemodelsrequiringvariousinputvariablesor3Dfields)
• Hightemporalresolu:on
• Limitedtoasinglemodel• Computa:onallyintensive• Canonlyapproximatethe
boundsofthedistribu:ons
Strengths and limitations of the 2 downscaling methods
Limitedrepresentedfeedbacks(i.e.forregionalclimatechange)
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MESM3D
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
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MESM3D
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
- EFFICIENT -> DETAILED CHEMISTRYFLEXIBILITY TO CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
AND STRENGTH OF AEROSOL FORCING
- METHANE MODEL- CROP MODEL- CARBON-NITROGEN- LAND-USE CHANGE- BIOGENIC EMISSIONS
- SIMPLE -> FULL DYNAMICAL- FLEXIBILTY TO CHANGE OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE RATE
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
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IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
Human System
CONSUMERSECTORS
PRODUCERSECTORS
PRIMARY FACTORS
GOODS & SERVICES
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
REGION A
REGION B
REGION C
TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS
ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS
MORTALITY & MORBIDITY
CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS
HEALTH MODULE
PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS
WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT
MODULE
WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE
WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY
AND INDUSTRIAL USE
IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM
PRODUCTIVITY
FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE
LAND PATHWAY
• AIRQUALITY&HEALTH• WATERRESOURCES• LAND
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
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IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
Human System
CONSUMERSECTORS
PRODUCERSECTORS
PRIMARY FACTORS
GOODS & SERVICES
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
REGION A
REGION B
REGION C
TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS
ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS
MORTALITY & MORBIDITY
CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS
HEALTH MODULE
PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS
WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT
MODULE
WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE
WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY
AND INDUSTRIAL USE
IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM
PRODUCTIVITY
FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE
AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY
PATHWAY
• AIRQUALITY&HEALTH• WATERRESOURCES• LAND
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
EarthSystem CHEMISTRY
Chemical Gases, Aerosols and Carbon Cycle
Human System
ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS
BIOGENICEMISSIONS
MORTALITY & MORBIDITY
CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS
HEALTH MODULE
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IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
Human System
CONSUMERSECTORS
PRODUCERSECTORS
PRIMARY FACTORS
GOODS & SERVICES
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
REGION A
REGION B
REGION C
TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS
ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS
MORTALITY & MORBIDITY
CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS
HEALTH MODULE
PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS
WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT
MODULE
WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE
WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY
AND INDUSTRIAL USE
IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM
PRODUCTIVITY
FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE
AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY
PATHWAY
• AIRQUALITY&HEALTH• WATERRESOURCES• LAND
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
EarthSystem
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
Human System
PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS
WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT
MODULE
WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE
WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY
AND INDUSTRIAL USE
IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY
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IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:
EarthSystem
OCEANDynamical, Biological and
Chemical Processes
SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
COUPLEDSYSTEM
LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and
Sea Level Rise
CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols
and Carbon Cycle
ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical
Processes
Human System
CONSUMERSECTORS
PRODUCERSECTORS
PRIMARY FACTORS
GOODS & SERVICES
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
REGION A
REGION B
REGION C
TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS
ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS
MORTALITY & MORBIDITY
CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS
HEALTH MODULE
PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS
WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT
MODULE
WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE
WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY
AND INDUSTRIAL USE
IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM
PRODUCTIVITY
FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE
AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY
PATHWAY
• AIRQUALITY&HEALTH• WATERRESOURCES• LAND
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
EarthSystem
LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,
Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics
Human System
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM
PRODUCTIVITY
FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE
LAND PATHWAY
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GOALOFNEWIGSMVERSION
§ BuildamorecompletehierarchyofIGSMframeworks
§ Towardamoreintegratedrepresenta:onofthehuman-earthsystem• morerealis:c(?)
§ Arefeedbacksbetweenhumanandearthsystemsimportant?• Land-usechange<->regionalclimatechange
§ Areinterac:onsbetweenmul:-sectorimpacts/co-benefitsimportant?
• Airquality&land-usechange(biogenicemissions,ozonedamage)• Waterscarcity&cropproduc:on(irriga:on)
§ Be9erexploretheroleofnaturalvariabilityonclimateimpacts
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
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ALWAYSTHESAMEISSUES
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM
§ Spa:alresolu:on/complexityofmodelvs.uncertaintyanalysisIsittoocomplex?
§ Biascorrec:onvs.representa:onoffeedbacks
§ Temporalresolu:on/couplingstrategies
§ Consistencyindata/managementprac:ceswithintheframework
§ ManymoreIcouldn’tthinkaboutwhenIpreparedthepresenta:on…
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THANKYOU
ANY QUESTIONS?
Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM