coupled natural and human systems · coupled human-environment systems in which synergy and...
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Coupled Natural and Human Systems
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Coupled Natural and Human Systems
Ecosystem goods,
services, risks
Land management,
human impacts
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CNHS
People
Values, attitudes, knowledge,
behaviors
Policies
Land use planning
Economic development
Open space
NGOs and community institutions
Population
Size, distribution
External influences
Markets, transportation, wealth,
policy, etc.
Climate change
Ecosystem
services
Ecosystem risks
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Economics
Political Economic
Structures
Technology
Policy
Demographics
Actors/agents,
Preferences, Decisions
History/Legacy
Human Subsystem
Climate
EcoHydrology
Biogeochemistry
Biodiversity
Soils and Geology
Topography
Natural Subsystem
Vegetation
Invasive species
Land Cover
Land Use
Infectious disease
Institutions
Tenure
Practice
Fig. 1: Coupled Human-Environment SystemFigure 1. Coupled human-environment system showing some of the components and the
inherent feedbacks within the system. Modified from the Boston Report of the NEON Land Use
Committee http://www.neoninc.org/documents/LUC_Boston_Report.pdf .
Coupled Natural Human System
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Studies emerging from IPCC, IGBP, IHDP as well as the NSF Biocomplexity and HSD program underscore the critical need for a comprehensive ecological research program to study and understand the coupled human-environment systems in which synergy and feedbacks, not just directional relationships, frame the analysis.
NEON will succeed in transforming ecology, forecasting future ecological conditions, and addressing societal objectives including management needs only if it explicitly includes the human system as an integral piece of its design and implementation.
This requires a design that (1) addresses the coupled human-natural system; (2) allows for continental and regional questions to be answered through a well-conceived hierarchy of sampling, extrapolation, and forecasting, and (3) links NEON research with mission-oriented agencies and organizations at
local, state, and federal levels.
National Ecological Observatory Network:
NEON Land Use Subcommittee Report Introduction
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• Feedbacks of land use and landscape patterns to
humans
•Demography
•Risk from fire
•Economics
• Assessment of tradeoffs and land use decisions
• Rational policy reactions
Topics
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Area at exurban densities grew from 5% in 1950 to 25% in 2000.
Demography
Brown et al. in review
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Rasker, R. and A.J. Hansen. 2000. Natural amenities and population growth in the
Greater Yellowstone region. Human Ecology Review 7(2):30-40.
Demography: MT, ID, WY
Positive correlations with features of mountainous portion of region: forest cover,
variation in elevation, high ppt.
Positive correlation with percent of county in protected status.
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Rasker, R. and A.J. Hansen. 2000. Natural amenities and population growth in the
Greater Yellowstone region. Human Ecology Review 7(2):30-40.
Demography: GYE
Best Model: access to airport, high ppt, variation in elevation, college degree
Conclude: ?
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•The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses meet or
intermingle with undeveloped wildland vegetation.
•The WUI is thus a focal area for human–environment conflicts, such as
the destruction of homes by wildfires, habitat fragmentation, introduction
of exotic species, and biodiversity decline.
•The WUI in the conterminous United States covers 719 156 km2 (9% of
land area) and contains 44.8 million housing units (39% of all houses).
•WUI areas are particularly widespread in the eastern United States,
reaching a maximum of 72% of land area in Connecticut. California has
the highest number of WUI housing units (5.1 million).
Radeloff, V.C., R.B. Hammer, S.I. Stewart, J.S. Fried, S.S. Holcomb, and J.F.
McKeefry. 2005. The wildland-urban interface in the United States.
Ecological Applications, 15(3):799–805.
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Gude, P.H. , R. Rasker, J. van den
Noort. In Review. Potential for
Future Development on Fire-Prone
Lands. Journal of the American
Planning Association.
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Gude, P.H. , R. Rasker, J. van den Noort. In Review. Potential for Future
Development on Fire-Prone Lands. Journal of the American Planning
Association.
•In a county-by-county study of 11 western states, we found that
only 14 percent of the available “wildland interface” in the West is
currently developed, leaving tremendous potential for new home
construction in the remaining 86 percent.
•If just half of the wildland interface is developed in the future,
annual firefighting costs could escalate to $4.3 billion.
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Factors Influencing Susceptibility
Regional fuel and fire patterns
Location in the Landscape
Defensible space around homes
Home construction
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Defensible Space
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•The social, environmental and fiscal costs of wildfire have
escalated dramatically over the last few years.
•In 2003 alone the federal government spent $1.3 billion on fire
suppression.
•Nevertheless, in that fire year 4.9 million acres of public land
burned, 5781 structures were destroyed, and 30 people lost their
lives (National Interagency Fire Center, NIFC 2004).
Costs to Humans
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Kaval, P., J. Loomis, D. Theobald. 2005. Using GIS to investigate the
relationships between stakeholder opinion about wildfire and landscape context.
International Association of Agricultural Economists 26th conference.
•They did survey in 2001 on Colorado homeowners living within 10
miles of public lands to determine willingness to pay for prescribed
fires, fire prevention, fire suppression.
•Estimated fire hazard for each homeowner.
•All respondents were wiling to pay an annual amount for all three
techniques. $300-$700 depending on situation.
•Willingness to pay was increased based on:
•perceived danger to home
•Increased fire frequency
•Less defensible space
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Teton
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Population Change in GYE
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0
100
200
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400
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800
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Pe
rso
na
l In
co
me
(in
millio
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of
19
97
do
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Non-labor sources
Farm and ag. services
Other
Services and professional
Mining
Economic Performance in
GYE:
5 slowest growing counties
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0
100
200
300
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800
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Pe
rso
na
l In
co
me
(in
millio
ns
of
19
97
do
lla
rs)
Non-labor sources
Farm and ag. services
Other
Services and professional
Mining
Economic Performance in
GYE:
5 fastest growing counties
What role do natural amenities play in stimulating personal income and economic growth?
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• Land-use change to provide food, fiber, timber, and space for
settlements is one of the foundations of human civilization
• There are often unintended consequences, including feedbacks
to climate, altered flows of freshwater, changes in disease vectors,
and reductions in biodiversity
DeFries, R.S., J.A Foley, and G.P Asner. 2004. Land-use choices: balancing
human needs and ecosystem function. Frontiers in Ecology and
Environment 2(5): 249–257.
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• Land-use decisions ultimately
weigh the inherent trade-offs
between satisfying immediate human
needs and unintended
ecosystem consequences, based on
societal values
• Ecological knowledge to assess
these ecosystem consequences is
a prerequisite to assessing the full
range of trade-offs involved in land
use decisions.
DeFries, R.S., J.A Foley, and G.P Asner. 2004. Land-use choices: balancing
human needs and ecosystem function. Frontiers in Ecology and
Environment 2(5): 249–257.
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Evaluating Trade-offs
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Evaluating Trade-offs
Win-win
Big loss –small gain
Win-lose
Small loss–big gain
Figure 7. Examples of possible relationships between land-use change to provide ecosystem goods for human needs and ecosystem function, including “win–win” (red) in which immediate goal (water purification) increases with longer-term goal to maintain ecosystem function (land preserved), and “small loss–big gain” (black) in which small reduction in satisfying immediate goal (number of rural homes) has major benefit for long-term ecosystem goal (breeding habitat). Other possibilities include “win–lose” (dotted red line) and “big loss–small gain” (dotted black line).
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Does conservation pay economically in gye?
How do we move towards the real costs of sprawl?
How about urban development?
How much do human consumption patterns and
human numbers influence the need for intense land
use?
Rational Policy Reactions?
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Case Study:
Dynamics of a Wildland and Exurban Coupled Natural and Human
System: Interactions, Education, and Implications for Adaptive
Management in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
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Dogs, cats
Water pollution
Water pollution
Weedy Plants
Synanthropic predator/brood
parasite effects
Hypothetical zones of ecological impact in and around the exurban site
undeveloped study sites
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Fig. 2. Conceptualization of the NA-CNHS. Feedbacks
among different components and at different scales create
complex dynamics. Our three overarching questions focus
on the interactions among components leading to more
sustainable management.
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Q(a). What are the effects of exurban development on
biodiversity in subdivisons and adjacent wildlands,
specifically the effects of nonindigenous plant species (NIS)
and mesocarnivores on the demography and community
structure of plants and birds?
H1. Exurban development alters plant and bird species abundances favoring
NIS, mesopredators, and brood parasites at the expense of other types of native
species.
H2. These effects on species abundances with home resident property
management behaviors and with exurban density.
H3. The expanded NIS and mesocarnivore/brood parasite species favored by
exurban development increases NIS invasion rates in adjacent wildlands and
reduces reproduction for native bird species sufficiently to convert population
source areas to population sinks.
H4. The distance and intensity of penetration into adjacent wildlands vary with
resident property management behaviors and exurban density.
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Q2. How does valuation of NAs influence property
management decisions relative to social, economic, and
cultural factors? To what extent does new environmental
knowledge impact NA valuation, and, in turn, property
management decisions?
H21. NAs explain significant variation in exurbanite choice of property beyond
that explained by traditional social, economic, and cultural factors.
H22. Valuation of NA varies with ecological knowledge
H23. Higher levels of NA valuation predict more sustainable property
management behaviors
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Q3. To what extent does informal environmental education
cause exurbanites to modify their valuation of NA and property
management behavior to be more sustainable?
H31. There is a treatment effect of informal science education on exurbanites’
knowledge of ecosystems and valuation of NAs.
H32. Informal education on exurban interactions with ecological systems leads to
more sustainable property management behaviors by exurbanites.
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Fig. 5. Conceptual outline of the Wildland-Exurban
Agent-based Land management model (WEAL) to be
developed in this project
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