COUPLED MODELING

Purpose: Review where the various centers are with their ocean models, how they got there, and outline the major outstanding issues.

CMIP5 model and simulation documentations will be much more comprehensive and complete: - standard vocabulary to describe models and simulations, - interactive web-based questionnaire to provide information, - information in a searchable data base linked to the model outputs.

Two groups are collaborating: Metafor (E. Guilyardi) and Earth System Curator (V. Balaji, C. DeLuca)

CMIP5 Long-term Experiments

Coupled carbon-cycle climate models only

All simulations are forced by prescribed concentrations except those “E-driven” (i.e., emission-driven).

D & A

ensembles

Control, AMIP, &

20 C

RCP4.5, RCP8.5

ensembles: AMIP & 20 C

natural-only,

GHG-only

individual

forcing

RCP2.X, RCP6

extend RCP4.5 to

2300 extend RCP8.5 & RCP2.X to

2300

ense

mbl

e of

ab

rupt

4xC

O 2 5

-yr

runs

aqua planet

(clouds)

unform ΔSST

(clouds)

Mid

-Hol

ocen

e &

LG

M

last

mill

enni

um

E-driven RCP8.5

E-driven control & 20 C

patterned

ΔSST

(clouds)

aerosol forcing ca.

2000

AC&C4

(chemistry)

1%/yr CO2 (140 yrs)

abrupt 4XCO2 (150 yrs)

fixed SST with 1x & 4xCO2

radiation code sees 1xCO2 (1% or 20C+RCP4.5)

carbon cycle sees 1XCO2 (1% or 20C+RCP4.5)

Core: ≥1718 yrsTier 1: ≥1727 yrsTier 2: ≥2038 yrs

K. Taylor

CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Experiments

additional predictions Initialized in

‘01, ’02, ’03 … ’09100-yr “control”

& 1% CO2

prediction with 2010 Pinatubo-

like eruption

alternative initialization

strategies

atmos. chemistry

&/or aerosols &/or

regional air quality

AMIP

increase

ensemble siz

es

from O

(3) to

O(10) members

hindc

asts

without

volca

noes

30-year hindcast and prediction ensembles:

initialized 1960, 1980 & 2005

10-year hindcast & prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1965, …,

2005

Core: 480 yrsTier 1: ≥1700 yrs

K. Taylor

CMIP5 Atmosphere-Only Experiments(targeted for computationally demanding and NWP models)

AMIP(1979-2008)

AMIP

ensemble

AMIP

SSTs

with

4XCO 2

aqua planet

(clouds)

uniform ΔSST

(clouds)

patterned ΔSST

(clouds)

future “time-slice”(2026-2035)

Future “time-slice”

ensemble

Core: 40 yrsTier 1: ≥185 yrsTier 2: 30 yrs

K. Taylor

CMIP5 TIMELINE (WGCM-13)

• Now / a few months ago: Centers are ready to start their simulations,

• Summer 2010: Data analysis,

• December 2010: Model output available to public,

• May 2011: Journal articles accepted (submitted??),

• Spring 2013: IPCC AR5 published.

CMIP5 participating groups (21?)

Primary Group

Country Primary Contact

NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange

Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones

GFDL U.S.A.T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowitz, R. Stouffer

IPSL & LMD France J-L. Dufresne, S. Bony

NIES & U. Tokyo,

JapanS. Emori, M. Kawamiya,

M. Kimoto,

CCCMA Canada G. Flato

MPI Germany M. Giorgetta

INGV Italy S. Gualdi

EC-Earth consortium

Europe W. Hazeleger

CSIRO & BMRC

Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri

NASA GSFC U.S.A. M. Suarez

Primary Group

Country Primary Contact

CSIRO & QCCCE

AustraliaL. Rotstayn, J. Syktus, S.

Jeffrey

NCAR U.S.A. J. Hurrell, J. Meehl

MRI Japan M. Kimoto

METRI (with Hadley Centre)

Korea W-T. Kwon

LASG IAP China T. Zhou, B. Wang

NASA GISS U.S.A. G. Schmidt

BCC ChinaQ. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T.

Wu, Y. Xu,

INM Russia E. Volodin

CERFACS & CNRM

France L. Terray, D. Salas-Melia

U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey

K. Taylor

Center Ocean Model

Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle

Comments

CSIRO/BMRC

MOM4p1 Nominal 1o L46 / z* / enhanced tropical and SH resolution

GM, Redi, KPP, Smag. visc., Rahmstorf conv.

No Under development, aim for core LT exp.

CSIRO/QCCCE

MOM2.2 1.875ox0.84oxL31 / Island at NP

GM, Redi, integer power vert. mixing, Kraus-Turner, VSF

No Slowly equilibrating 1850, core LT only

CCCma NCOM 1.4ox0.94oxL40 GM, Redi, KPP, anisotropic visc., tidal

Off-line spinup 5000 yrs

All

EC-Earth NEMOv2 Nominal 1o x L42 ORCA1 setup: quasi-pure isopycnal?, TKE vert. mixing, Lap. hor. visc.

No ~250 yr spinup, 1960-2008 ocean reanaly. ready, All

NERSC Modified MICOM

1.125o x L51 Eden & Greatbatch, Oberhuber ML depth, sub-meso, Smag. visc., tidal

Yes, spinup just underway

Only LT exp., about to start?

Center Ocean Model

Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle

Comments

MRI MRI.COM 1ox0.5oxL50 / tripole

GM, Redi, Noh & Kim vert. mixing, anisotropic Smag. visc., tidal, BBL

spunup 1850 control is just starting, LT and DP exp.

LASG IAP LICOM Nominal 1o x L30 GM, Redi, Canuto et al. vert. mixing, large diffusivity values?

? All, except time slice

BCC MOM4 L40 ? ? As many as possible

BNU MOM4 ? ? ? Appears rather preliminary

INGV OPA8.2/ORCA2

? ? Yes T159 for DP, T31 for LT

Limited information from GISS, INM, IPSL, and Meteo-France

Center Ocean Model

Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle

Comments

NCAR POP2 1.125ox0.3-0.5oxL60 / displaced NP

GM, Redi, KPP, anisotropic hor. viscosity, overflow param., sub-meso, tidal

Spunup > 1000 yrs

Integrations are underway, most LT and DP

GFDL MOM4.1MOM4.1GOLD

Z (DP)Z* (LT)Isopycnal (LT)

Hadley Centre

HadGEM2-ESHadCM3HiGEM

1ox1/3o-1o (LT)

1/3ox1/3oxL40 (DP)

GM, Redi, hor. viscosity (Lap. & Bihar.), Kraus-Turner and Peters et al. vertical mixing / modified coeff. & bihar. (DP)

Yes LT and DP

MPI MPIOM 1oxL40 (LT)0.4oxL80 (DP, 20C), tripole

GM, Redi, PP vert. mixing, BBL, tidal

Spunup with 3oxL40 3000 yrs

In preparation, efficiency issues on new machine

SUMMARY• Model readiness and participation in either coupled

carbon cycle experiments or experiment sets vary considerably,

• 1850 control integrations, except Hadley Centre (1860),

• Mostly level coordinate models with nominal 1o horizontal resolutions,

• Redi and GM for tracer mixing are rather uniform, but there are significant differences in diffusivity coefficient choices, e.g., constant, spatially varying, (un)equal thickness and isopycnal, etc.,

• There appears to be some increase in the use of tidal mixing parameterization,

• Vertical mixing scheme as well as horizontal viscosity choices vary.

Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases

Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements

CSIRO/BMRC Warm SST bias globally, low Arctic summer sea ice, too diffusive equatorial thermocline

Tune ocean-ice coupling, explore vertical mixing schemes, explore tuning of IT through Rayleigh linear damping

CSIRO/QCCCE Aware of some model biases No further work to address these with this particular model

CCCma SST and SSS biases, high ACC transport

Switch to a different model

EC-Earth TOM is 0.4 Wm-2, but little model drift, too cool SSTs in the tropics, too warm at high latitudes particularly in the SO, not much sea ice, deep water is cold, too much LSW water and not enough Nordic Sea water

Switch to NEMOv3,Implement biogeochemistry

NERSC Large AMOC and heat transport concerns, strong positive SSS anomaly in the Arctic, some problems with the diffusivity coefficients

Abandon Leap-Frog scheme, eliminate virtual salt fluxes, handle floating ice shelves, conform to the new EOS, change grid staggering

Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases

Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements

MRI Warm Antarctic bottom water, overshooting WBCs, O2 is too high in the northern Indian Ocean

Increase horizontal resolution to eddy permitting, couple to a wave model, include iron in biogeochemistry

LASG IAP Too much ice

INGV Cold SSTs in the mid-latitude Pacific and Atlantic

MPI Biases in subsurface T & S, too much horizontal mixing in the upper layers of the Med. Outflow, OMZ problem (appears to be resolution dependent)

Working on BBL scheme details, implementation of modified sea-ice thermodynamics, mixing due to internal tides

Hadley Centre OMZ problems (negative), coupling dust and interactive vegetation challenges, too much production in the Equatorial Pacific, issues with vertical profile of tracer diffusivity

Switch to NEMO

Ocean model biases in preliminary CanCM4 20th century run (no carbon cycle)

Differences are between 1980-1999 average and Levitus/PHC climatology

SST SSS

B. Merryfield

Sea Surface Temperature from CCSM41850 control 20th Century

Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases

Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements

NCAR

GFDL

CMIP5: Three Suites of Experiments

“Long-Term”(century & longer)

TIER 1

TIER 2

CORE

evaluation& projection

diagnosis

“Near-Term”(decadal prediction)

(initialized ocean state)

hindcasts & forecasts

CORE

TIER 1

TIER 2

TIER 1

AMIP

“time-slice”

CORE

Atmosphere-Only

(for computationally demanding and NWP models)

TIER 1

TIER 2