country risk global grading
TRANSCRIPT
_Pu
blic
atio
n
N°2
AU G
roup
G-G
rade
20
15 -
3rd Q
uart
er
20153RD QUARTER
GLOBALOVERVIEW
_Country Risk Global Grading
AU Group
—GRADEG
_Co
pyrig
ht A
U G
roup
_In
trod
uctio
n
INTRODUCTION
Pag
e1
INTRODUCTION
NOTICE OF EXPLANATION
DISCLAIMER
- The G-Grade displays a grade between 1 and 10, measuring the perceived level of political risk in this country.
- Grade 1 corresponds to the lowest perceived level of political risk.
- On each country snapshot, you will notice:• on the left side is the previous grade,• on the centre is the current G-Grade, and • on the right side is the highest and the lowest
risk assessment provided by the insurers.
- All macro economic graphics have been prepared based on IMF (International Monetary Fund) sta-tistics department information (World Economic Outlook Database)
- In case of questions please address your request to: [email protected]
This document refl ects the opinion of AU Group. The information and datas contained herein are based on our current
hypotheses and viewpoints. They are not legal or other professional advice and shall not be relied on as such. In this
regard, A.U. Group does not warrant or assume any legal liability for any indirect damage, such as any fi nancial or
commercial loss, loss of profi ts, disruption to business, shortfall in earnings, losses or any legal action brought by a
third party against the reader, resulting from the use of this document or any information contained in this document.
Moreover, the analyses are subject to modifi cation at any time without prior notice.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or used
in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including
photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval sys-
tems without the prior permission of AU Group.
ENABLING BETTER VISIBILITY ON WORLDWIDE RISKS
In our challenging global economy, it is obvious how much, the business environment has been shaken by political risk, environmental catastrophes, local country instability with high levels of debt, local armed confl ict….These events have occurred across all regions e.g. Russia, Brazil, Egypt, China, Greece... In this context, companies continue to seek new markets to develop their export businesses as well as monitoring existing markets for signs of higher risk. Many companies use Trade Credit to secure their growth, supporting their own commercial credit decisions with information provided by large insurers such as EULER HERMES, ATRADIUS, COFACE & CREDIMUNDI... All of those insurers have their own sophisticated economic research departments, which analyse short/medium term economic risk as well as country political risk. In this regards they are producing country risk grades to monitor political risk which could impact the payment of a receivable. However, each insurer uses different methods to assess the risk and each presents its grades in different ways. We, at AU Group, the largest broker only specialised in insurance and fi nancing of trade receivables, wanted to innovate by giving, in a single Grade, a condensed overview based on the insurers’ country risk assessments. Therefore we created the “AU G-Grade” for decision makers. The AU G-Grade is displayed country by country, showing the lowest and highest assessments and the rating evolution. In addition and in order to provide you a complete picture of each country, we have selected 7 KPI’s issued by the IMF statistic department.
The AU G-Grade is a complementary tool to the insurer’s grading and gives a solid trend and indication of a country risk based on the valuable grading of the most experienced insurers. We trust you will appreciate this initiative.
― Baudouin de Thoré, Chief Executive Officer
AU GROUP
—GRADEG
COPYRIGHT
AU Group G-Grade 2015
hight risk
10
low risk
1
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Malta
Moldova
Montenegro
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Australia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea (South)
Laos
Malaysia
Mongolia
Myanmar
Nepal
New Zealand
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
p.3
p.4
p.5
p.6
p.7
p.8
p.9
p.10
p.11
p.12
p.13
p.14
p.15
p.16
p.17
p.18
p.19
p.20
p.21
p.22
p.23
p.24
p.25
p.26
p.27
p.28
p.29
p.30
p.31
p.32
p.33
p.34
p.35
p.36
p.37
p.38
p.39
p.40
p.41
p.42
p.43
p44
p.45
p.46
p.47
p.48
p.49
p.50
p.63
p.64
p.65
p.66
p.67
p.68
p.69
p.70
p.71
p.72
p.73
p.74
p.75
p.76
p.77
p.78
p.79
p.80
p.81
p.82
p.83
p.84
p.85
p.86
COUNTRY COUNTRY COUNTRYPAGE PAGE PAGETREND TREND TREND
_Co
pyrig
ht A
U G
roup
_O
verv
iew
OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
EUROPE & CIS
Pag
e2
ASIA
AMERICAS
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
United States of America
Uruguay
Venezuela
p.128
p.129
p.130
p.131
p.132
p.133
p.134
p.135
p.136
p.137
p.138
p.139
p.140
p.141
p.142
p.143
p.144
p.145
p.146
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Congo (Brazaville)
Congo (Democratic Republic)
Cote d’Ivoire
Egypt
Ethiopia
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
p.87
p.88
p.89
p.90
p.91
p.92
p.93
p.94
p.95
p.96
p.97
p.98
p.99
p.100
p.101
p.102
p.103
p.104
p.105
p.106
p.107
p.108
p.109
p.110
p.111
p.112
p.113
p.114
p.115
p.116
p.117
p.118
p.119
p.120
p.121
p.122
p.123
p.124
p.125
p.126
p.127
AFRICA
p.51
p.52
p.53
p.54
p.55
p.56
p.57
p.58
p.59
p.60
p.61
p.62
MIDDLE EAST
Bahrain
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
AU Group G-Grade 2015
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
ALBANIA
Euro
pe &
Cis
2.8Population
in Millions of people, 2014
2.1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
4 781Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
7
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
7.81
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
6MAX
10
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
2.7
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.6 1.42.1
3
4
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4 384
4 6334 781
4 495
4 835
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
113115.2
117.1119.2
122.1
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13.4
15.6
14 13.8 13.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
62
70.172.6 73.6
69.8
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10.2 -10.7 -13.9 -15.7 -15.5
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Albania - Europe & Cis
Page 3
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
BELGIUM
Euro
pe &
Cis
11.2Population
in Millions of people, 2014
1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
47 722Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
2
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
1.51
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
1MAX
2
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.1
11.2 11.2 11.2
11.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.10.3
11.3
1.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
44 98847 033 47 722
41 267 42 036
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
118.2
119.6120.2 120.3
121.4
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.6
8.4 8.5 8.48.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
104104.6
105.6106.6 106.2
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.7-0.2
1.62.3 2.4
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Belgium - Europe & Cis
Page 8
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
GREECE
Euro
pe &
Cis
11Population
in Millions of people, 2014
0.8Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
21 653Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
6.3
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
8.31
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
7MAX
10
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.1 11.1
11 11 11
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-6.6-3.9
0.82.5 3.7
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
22 44621 903 21 653
18 86319 800
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
122.9121.6
119.9 119.6 119.9
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
24.4
27.526.5
24.8
22.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
156.5
174.9 177.2172.7
162.4
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-2.5
0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Greece - Europe & Cis
Page 20
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
HUNGARY
Euro
pe &
Cis
9.9Population
in Millions of people, 2014
3.6Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
13 881Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
4.8
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
5.31
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
4MAX
6
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
9.8
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.5
1.5
3.62.7 2.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12 769
13 465
13 881
12 853
13 487
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
109.9
111.8 111.5 111.5
114
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.110.2
7.8 7.6 7.4
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
78.577.3 76.9
75.574.7
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.9
4.1 4.24.8
4.1
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Hungary - Europe & Cis
Page 21
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
BAHRAIN
Mid
dle
East
1.2Population
in Millions of people, 2014
4.7Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
28 272Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
5
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
51
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
4MAX
6
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3.4
5.34.7
2.7 2.4
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
26 632
27 91728 272
25 633
26 714
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
114.7118.5
121.5124
125.9
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3.9
4.3
4.1
4.3 4.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
36.343.6 43.8
54 57
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.2 7.85.3
-2.1 -0.7
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Bahrain - Middle East
Page 51
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
IRAN
Mid
dle
East
78Population
in Millions of people, 2014
3Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
5 183Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
10
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
101
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
10MAX
10
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7677
7879
80
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-6.6
-1.9
30.6 1.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 512
4 941
5 183
4 983 5 057
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
130.5175.9
203.2236.8
277
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12.2
10.411.2
12.313.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11.2 11.1
12.211.9 11.9
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6.37.4
3.8
0.8 1.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Iran - Middle East
Page 52
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
CAMBODIA
Asi
a
15.3Population
in Millions of people, 2014
7Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
1 081Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
8.3
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
6.81
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
5MAX
9
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
14.915.1
15.315.5
15.8
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.37.4
7
7.2 7.2
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9461 018
1 0811 146
1 229
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
148152.4
158.3 157.8161.7
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
28.928.7
29.529.8
29.5
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-11 -12.2 -12 -10 -9.3
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Cambodia - Asia
Page 66
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
CHINA
Asi
a
1 367.8Population
in Millions of people, 2014
7.4Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
7 589Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
3.3
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
3.81
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
2MAX
6
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 3541 360.7
1 367.81 375
1 382.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7.8 7.87.4
6.8
6.3
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6 1946 959
7 5898 154
8 659
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
108.2111
113.2114.6
116.3
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
37.339.4
41.143.5
46.2
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.6
1.9 2
3.2 3.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
China - Asia
Page 67
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
ANGOLA
Afr
ica
24.4Population
in Millions of people, 2014
4.2Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
5 273Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
6.8
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
7.51
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
5MAX
9
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2323.7
24.425.1
25.9
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5.2
6.8
4.2 4.53.9
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 0185 245 5 273
4 2274 561
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
116.5126.7
135.9147.3
159.8
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
29.635.2 38
47.544.3
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
126.7
-0.8-6.3 -4.2
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Angola - Africa
Page 88
Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015
GABON
Afr
ica
1.6Population
in Millions of people, 2014
5.1Gross Domestic Product
in % of change, 2014
10 836Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
in USD, 2014
12
3
45 6
78
9
PREVIOUSG-GRADE
5.8
12
3
45 6
78
9
CURRENTG-GRADE
6.31
23
45 6
78
9
SPREAD
MIN
5MAX
8
POPULATION(Persons)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.5
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5.5 5.6
5.1
4.4
5.5
(estimated) (forecast)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10 52610 966 10 836
9 343
9 979
(estimated) (forecast)
INFLATION(Index)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
117.1 117.7
123126.1
129.2
(estimated) (forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
(estimated) (forecast)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
21.1
27 27.8
33.7 35.1
(estimated) (forecast)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
21.315 11.3
-2.3
0.9
(estimated) (forecast)
Source : International Monetary Fund
Gabon - Africa
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7
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