country report muhammad riaz pakistan meteorological department karachi e-mail: [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
SATELLITE IMAGE OF TARBELA
HARIPUR
• DARBAND
• BISHAM QILA
TARBELA RESERVOIR
• Catchment area above Tarbela 65500 Sq Miles (169600 Sq Km)
• Annual Average Inflow at Tarbela 64 MAF
• Area of Lake 100 Sq. Miles (260 Sq. KM)
• Maximum Depth (Present) 334 Ft
FLOOD GENERATING
SYSTEMS • MONSOON LOW PRESSURE
AREAS
• MONSOON DEPRESSIONS
• CYCLONES
WEATHER SYSTEMS1 Westerly wave
2 Southwest Monsoon
River FloodsFlash FloodsUrban Floods
INTRODUCTION
• Climate Change is burning issue not at National but also at International level. Its Scope is so wider that nothing left without coming in the grip of its impacts, either it may be human, livestock or crops (Biodiversity).
• All these are leading happy and healthy life in a specific climate ,otherwise adverse effects if it is changed
Average Annual Rainfall (1950-1979)
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
A R A B I A N S E A
C H I N A Annual Precipitation (mm)NORMAL (1950-79)
A sto reB a b u sa r
B u n ji
G ha ri D up a tta
G ilg itG u p is
H un za
K o tli
M u za ffa ra b a d
R aw a lako t
Skard u
B a rkh a n
D alba n d inK a la t
K h u zd a r
P a n jgu r
Q ue tta
Z h o b
B a la ko t
C h era t
C h ila sC h itra l
D ir
D ro sh
K aku l
K a lam
M a lam Ja b a
P a rach ina r
P a tan
S a idu S h a rif
M urree
H ill S ta tio n
G w ad a rJ iw a n i
L a sbe lla
N o kkun d i
O rm a raP a sn i
S ib i
T u rb a t
B a n n u
D .I.K h a n
K a m ra
K oh a t
P esh aw ar
R a fiq u i
R isa lp u r
B a h a w a lna g a r
B h a w a lp u r
D ha m ia l
D .G .K h an
F a isa lab a d
Islam a b ad
Jh a n g
Jh e lum
Jo u ha rab a d
K h a n p ur
L a h o re
M u nd i B .D .
M a n g a la
M ia n w a li
M u lta n
N oo rpu rth a l
O ka ra
R .Y .K h an
S a h iw a l
S a rg o d h a
S ia lko t
B a d in
C h h o r
D ad u
H yd era b ad
Ja co ba b a d
K a ra ch i
L a rkan a
M ir P u r K h as
M ith i
M o en jo d aro
N a w a b sh a h
P a d id a n
R o h riS u kkar
T h a tta
P la in S ta tio n
I R A N
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
800
900
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Average Annual Rainfall (1980-2009)
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
A R A B I A N S E A
C H I N A Annual Precipitation (m m)NORMAL (1980-2009)
A storeB abusar
B un ji
G hari D upa tta
G ilg itG up is
H unza
K o tli
M uza ffa rabad
R aw a lako t
Skardu
B arkhan
D alb and inK a la t
K huzdar
P an jgur
Q uetta
Z ho b
B a lako t
C hera t
C h ila sC h itra l
D ir
D rosh
K aku l
K a lam
M a lam Jaba
P arach inar
P a tan
Sa id u Sharif
M urree
H ill S ta tion
G w adarJ iw an i
L asbe lla
N okkund i
O rm araP asn i
S ib i
T urba t
B annu
D .I.K han
K am ra
K oha t
P eshaw ar
R a fiqu i
R isa lpur
B ahaw a lnagar
B haw a lpur
D ham ia l
D .G .K han
F a isa labad
Islam a bad
Jhan g
Jhe lum
Jouharaba d
K hanpur
L ahore
M und i B .D .
M anga la
M ianw a li
M u ltan
N oorpurtha l
O kara
R .Y .K han
Sah iw a l
Sa rgodha
S ia lko t
B ad in
C hhor
D adu
H yderabad
Jacoba bad
K arach i
L arkan a
M ir P ur K has
M ith i
M oen jodaro
N aw abshah
P ad ida n
R ohriSukkar
T ha tta
P la in S ta tion
I R A N
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Average Annual Rainfall (1980-2009) minus (1950-1979)
-1 20
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
A R A B I A N S E A
C H I N A Annual Precipitation (mm) Departure(1980-09) minus (1950-79) A store
B abusar
B un ji
G hari D upa tta
G ilg itG up is
H unza
K o tli
M uza ffa rabad
R aw a lako t
Skardu
B arkhan
D alband inK a la t
K huzdar
P an jgu r
Q u etta
Z hob
B a lako t
C hera t
C h ilasC h itra l
D ir
D rosh
K aku l
K a lam
M alam Jaba
P arach inar
P a tan
Sa idu Sharif
M urree
H ill S ta tion
G w adarJ iw an i
L asbe lla
N okkund i
O rm araP asn i
S ib i
T urba t
B annu
D .I.K han
K am ra
K oha t
P eshaw ar
R a fiqu i
R isa lpur
B ahaw a lnagar
B haw a lpu r
D ham ia l
D .G .K han
F a isa labad
Islam abad
Jhang
Jhe lum
Jouharabad
K hanpur
L ahore
M und i B .D .
M anga la
M ianw a li
M ultan
N oorpurtha l
O kara
R .Y .K han
Sah iw a l
Sa rgo dha
S ia lko t
B ad in
C hhor
D ad u
H yderabad
Jacobabad
K ara ch i
L arkana
M ir P ur K has
M ith i
M oen jodaro
N aw abshah
P ad idan
R ohriSukkar
T ha tta
P la in S ta tion
I R A N
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
f(x) = 0.0224090025006946 x + 6.92819209039548
f(x) = − 0.958166969147006 x + 100.417483363581
f(x) = − 0.0852764656849125 x + 26.7392655367232f(x) = − 0.0471297582661851 x + 57.0641242937853
Coastal Area Winter Rainfall
Badin Linear (Badin) Linear (Badin)Jiwani Linear (Jiwani) KarachiLinear (Karachi) Pasni Linear (Pasni)
mm
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
f(x) = − 1.03379549874965 x + 226.959096045198
f(x) = − 0.188170858179933 x + 15.8021692161438
f(x) = − 1.33215337593776 x + 203.790677966102
f(x) = − 0.194084467907752 x + 22.8645762711864
Coastal Area MONSOON Rainfall
Badin Linear (Badin)
mm
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
f(x) = − 0.550953042511809 x + 245.10406779661f(x) = − 1.17761861550428 x + 157.894322011926
f(x) = − 1.32752709085857 x + 251.841242937853
f(x) = − 0.142371047672227 x + 114.544822712361
Coastal Area ANNUAL Rainfall
Badin Linear (Badin) Linear (Badin)Jiwani Linear (Jiwani) KarachiLinear (Karachi) Pasni Linear (Pasni)
mm
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
f(x) = − 0.218298017771702 x + 445.658971291866
f(x) = − 0.169782849632688 x + 30.6241268377846
f(x) = 0.841880377006959 x + 366.864893966793
f(x) = 0.156147528376757 x + 90.0951459595804
Winter Rainfall
GDupatta Linear (GDupatta)Gilgit Linear (Gilgit)Muzffarabad Linear (Muzffarabad)Skardu Linear (Skardu)
mm
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
f(x) = − 0.694529052931997 x + 196.387163802959
f(x) = − 1.1595067392873 x + 264.900291471283
f(x) = − 0.289827432403335 x + 68.2192192931188
f(x) = 0.520894233734196 x + 199.964292321924
Winter Rainfall
Astore Linear (Astore) CheratLinear (Cherat) Chilas Linear (Chilas)Chitral Linear (Chitral)
mm
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
f(x) = − 4.59765892002734 x + 777.532843472317
f(x) = 0.203762156154487 x + 31.7885875706215
f(x) = − 1.93833902939166 x + 752.313875598086
f(x) = 0.141940385739334 x + 28.7100175336061
Monsoon Rainfall
GDupatta Linear (GDupatta)Gilgit Linear (Gilgit)Muzffarabad Linear (Muzffarabad)Skardu Linear (Skardu)Linear (Skardu)
mm
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
f(x) = 0.201684844742266 x + 64.2722388657548
f(x) = − 0.967897622749445 x + 267.972858634891
f(x) = 0.505635362514996 x + 17.2776584945707f(x) = 0.201399167437558 x + 17.3567414431082
Monsoon Rainfall
Astore Linear (Astore) CheratLinear (Cherat) Chilas Linear (Chilas)Chitral Linear (Chitral) Linear (Chitral)
mm
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
f(x) = − 1.48531706625053 x + 550.365711448432
f(x) = − 3.4505926652026 x + 754.458719096676
f(x) = 0.380482327970716 x + 182.12687563444
f(x) = 1.07699044094974 x + 433.356336725255
Annual Rainfall
Astore Linear (Astore) Linear (Astore)Cherat Linear (Cherat) ChilasLinear (Chilas) Chitral Linear (Chitral)
mm
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
f(x) = − 8.23381408065619 x + 1846.39181476418
f(x) = 0.473144364781231 x + 121.568447286601
f(x) = − 1.36064446756505 x + 1565.40416519397
f(x) = 0.571075702113263 x + 211.381805038605
Annual Rainfall
GDupatta Linear (GDupatta) Linear (GDupatta)Gilgit Linear (Gilgit) MuzffarabadLinear (Muzffarabad) Skardu Linear (Skardu)
mm
Annual Maximum Temperature(1955-2009)
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
f(x) = 0.0422924901185771 x + 21.9021256038647f(x) = 0.0294300144300144 x + 23.0068686868687
f(x) = 0.0479089597271416 x + 17.0770615243343
f(x) = 0.0147109988776655 x + 15.1454994388328
Chitral Linear (Chitral) Gilgit Linear (Gilgit)Skardu Linear (Skardu) Astore Linear (Astore)
°C
Annual Minimum Temperature(1955-2009)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12f(x) = NaN x + NaN
f(x) = − 0.0277375256322625 x + 8.60324675324675
f(x) = − 0.0107678286625655 x + 5.24021645021645
f(x) = 0.0123283766878603 x + 3.63354692477334
Chitral Linear (Chitral) Gilgit Linear (Gilgit)Skardu Linear (Skardu) Astore Linear (Astore)
°C
Temperature Range
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
f(x) = 0.00593115532648312 x + 8.21074894850016
f(x) = − 0.0167811532555081 x + 12.6583136185332
f(x) = 0.0574044795783926 x + 12.785652173913
f(x) = 0.0228282828282828 x + 13.2280808080808
Cherat Linear (Cherat)
°C
Temperature Range
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
f(x) = 0.0354080487413821 x + 12.3474635241302
f(x) = 0.0571212121212121 x + 14.3824242424242
f(x) = 0.0578004916893806 x + 11.9001047512159
f(x) = 0.00305058672983197 x + 11.5013760243949
G-Dupatta Linear (G-Dupatta) GilgitLinear (Gilgit) Skardu Linear (Skardu)Astore Linear (Astore)
°C
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
f(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaN
f(x) = 0.012351443885446 x + 30.6857823428969
Annual Maximum Temperature
Badin Linear (Badin)Jiwani Linear (Jiwani)Karachi Linear (Karachi)Pasni Linear (Pasni)
°C
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
f(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaN
f(x) = 0.00498012821232965 x + 20.0582266161365
Annual Minimum Temperature
Badin Linear (Badin)Jiwani Linear (Jiwani)Karachi Linear (Karachi)Pasni Linear (Pasni)
°C
19511954
19571960
19631966
19691972
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
f(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaNf(x) = NaN x + NaN
f(x) = 0.0110052924586371 x + 10.6226751605603
Annual Temperature Ranges
Badin Linear (Badin)Jiwani Linear (Jiwani)Karachi Linear (Karachi)Pasni Linear (Pasni)
°C
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
f(x) = 0.0161545601291364 x + 3.54430800132071R² = 0.0436948033020088
f(x) = 0.0387149381994502 x + 5.18679259475724R² = 0.115777087030746
BADINAnnual Wind Speed (1951-2009)
morning
kn
ots
Astore Cherat Chelas Chitral G Dupatta Gilgit M Abad Skardu
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Tendency of Rainfall (Northern Area)
Winter Monsoon Annual
mm
per
an
nu
m
Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
Tendency of Rainfall (Coastal Area)
Winter Monsoon Annual
mm
pe
r a
nn
um
Monthly Frequency of Tropical Cyclones & Depression
over Arabian Sea (1891-2010)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Fre
qu
en
cy
Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones & Depression
over Arabian Sea (1891-2010)18
9118
9418
9719
0019
0319
0619
0919
1219
1519
1819
2119
2419
2719
3019
3319
3619
3919
4219
4519
4819
5119
5419
5719
6019
6319
6619
6919
7219
7519
7819
8119
8419
8719
9019
9319
9619
9920
0220
0520
08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ann Annl Trend 5 years moving ave. 11 years moving ave.
Fre
qu
en
cy
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
f(x) = − 0.0258064516129032 x + 5.18709677419355
f(x) = 0.0274193548387097 x + 1.49677419354839
DEPRESSION/LOWS (1980-2010)
Total Formed Linear (Total Formed) Crossed Pakistan Linear (Crossed Pakistan)
Nu
mb
ers
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
f(x) = − 0.214314516129032 x + 10.6129032258065
MONSOON RAINFALL (1980-2010)/MONSOON DE-PRESSIONS
Mosoon_%Dep_Rain Linear (Mosoon_%Dep_Rain) Crossed Pakistan
% D
epar
ture
No
of D
ep.
NO SIGNIFICANT Change due to Global Warming
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
f(x) = 73.0208333333328 x + 81832.7419354839
RIVER INDUS AT TARBELAAverage Inflow (CUSECS)
Ave Inflow Linear (Ave Inflow)Linear (Ave Inflow) Ave Discharge
INF
LO
W (
CU
SE
CS
)
Inflow
Discharge
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
f(x) = − 35.8002979067926 x + 31644.8328167159
RIVER JHELUM AT MANGLAAnnual Average INFLOW (Cusecs) (1967 - 2010)
Average Discharge Linear (Average Discharge)
years
INF
LO
W
(Cu
secs
)
Kashmir Earthquake 2005:Consequences & Causes
M. Asif KhanNational Centre of Excellence in
GeologyUniversity of Peshawar
Makran Seismic Zone
Chaman-Hindukush Seismic Zone
Kuchch-Gujerat Seismic Zone
Sulaiman-KirtharSeismic Zone
Himalayan Seismic Zone
Bhuj 2001 M7.6; Allah Band 1819 M 7.8
Urmara 1945, M8.3
Chaman, 1892 Quetta 1935, M7.5
Kashmir 2005, M7.6
Mach 1931, M7.4 & Ziarat/Pishin 2009,M6.4
Kangra 1905, M ~8
Himalayan Seismic Zone
Stakeholders Federal Flood Commission (FFC)
Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA)
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
Provincial Relief Organization
Pakistan Army
Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW)
Emergency Relief Cell (ERC)
CONCLUSION• Rainfall Analysis shows decadal increase over the year from 1961-
2009,drought condition also prevailed at intervals.( The increase is 1.2mm/year)
• The increased rainfall has shifted Northern Areas of the country .• Changes in precipitation are not as significant over the
southwestern parts of the country .• Annual Maximum Temperature is increasing from0.1 to 0.4c/decad
while minimum Temperature is decreasing from 0.1-0.2c/decad in the Northern Areas
• Diurnal variation in temperature in the Northern areas is increasing .Thus the moister holding capacity is increasing resulting heavy downpour.
• Annual Maximum and minimum temperatures of Coastal Areas are increasing from 0.12-0.19 and 0.05-0.2 °C per decade respectively
