country head of jll vietnam stephen wyatt · mobile internet source: opensignal, jll research 30%...

Ho Chi Minh City | April 2019

Stephen Wyatt

Country Head of JLL Vietnam

Real Estate Market Overview

for 1Q19

international headlines

Vietnam's economy gains as companies flee China in trade war

No high-rise apartment projects in downtown HCMC until 2020

Major news

EU pushes for approval of trade agreement with Vietnam

HCMC revokes 180 long delayed projects

3

Singapore South Korea ChinaHong Kong

Top 5 Countries Investing in Vietnam in terms of registered capital in 1Q19

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment – Foreign Investment Agency (FIA Vietnam)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q19

FDI by year (USD million)

Total registered capital Total disbursement capital

$4.12 bil.▲6.2% y-o-y

$10.8 bil.▲86.2% y-o-y

Japan

1Q19 - Vietnam FDI

77.7%

7.2%3.5%

2.6%

4.6%

Others4.4%

Whole sale and retail trade

Catering and Accommodation

Top 5 FDI Attracting

Sectors in 1Q19

Real estate

Scientific and technicalactivities

Manufacturing

3

1Q19 HCMC Office Market

© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Total Supply

2,178,000 sqm NFA

Future supply, end 2019

275,000 sqm NFA

Grade A & B Occupancy Rate

96.4 %

Grade A & B Rent

27.9 USD/sqm/month

5 km

10 km

137bpsy-o-y

5.4%y-o-y

Grade A

Grade B

LEGEND

1Q19 HCMC Retail Market

5

Total Supply

1,120,000 sqm GFA

Future supply, end 2019

335,500 sqm GFA

Occupancy Rate

87.7 %

Average Gross Rent

45.4 USD/sqm/month

5 km

10 km

311bpsy-o-y

4.01%y-o-y

Note: Average rent and occupancy rate are refers to community centre and uppers.

1Q19 Southern Industrial Market


Total Supply

29,987 ha

Future supply

14,700 ha

Industrial Land Occupancy Rate

86 %

Industrial Land Rent

96 USD/sqm/lease term

5 km

10 km

BA RIA VUNG TAU

BINH DUONG

DONG NAI

Cai Mep Deep

Seaport

Cat Lai Port

Sai Gon Port

Long An Internation

al Port

Hiep Phuoc

Port

Long Thanh Intl. Airport

(future)

Tan Son Nhat Intl.

Airport

4Q09 HCMC Residential Market


Accumulative launches

57,334 units

Average Primary Price

1,085 USD/sqm

5 km

10 km

+ 58.1%Compared to 4Q05

Luxury Premium Mid-end Affordable

4,1 timesCompared to 2005





115,027 units


1,131 USD/sqm

+ 4.3%Compared to

4Q09

+ 2.0 timesCompared to 4Q09

5 km

10 km




261,003 units

Future launches, end 2019

30,000 - 45,000units


2,028 USD/sqm


+ 2.27 timesCompared to 4Q14

+ 79.2%Compared to 4Q14

5 km

10 km

Major Trends

Apartment stock per 1,000 persons

10

17 19

37 38 39

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

HCMC in2016

HCMC in2019

Jakarta Bangkok Kualalumpur

Manila

Home price to income ratio for SEA cities

4.1

5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9

7.0

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

HCMC Kualalumpur

Bangkok Singapore Jakarta Manila

89% of 2018 new launches

coming from Mid-end and Affordable segments

Affordable

49%

Mid-end

38%

2018

2017

2016

in Vogue

From Nano-unit to accommodate

young adults/family…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1-br 2-br 3br 1-br 2-br 3br

Before 2013 2013 - current

Affordable Mid-end Premium Luxury

Before 2013

~100 sqm/unitAfter 2013

85 sqm/unit

Market waits for regulations on small apartments

…to Integrated - city to boast a huge community

VINCITY since 2017

~ 44,000 apartments

2,200 villas/townhouses

PHU MY HUNG since 1993

~ 10,000 units2,000 villas/townhouses

CELADON CITY since 2010

> 6,100 apartments

Metro line strongly impacts the real estate development

Source: JLL Research

Ben Thanh

Suoi Tien

>131,746 units

launchesfrom 2012 – 2021 in

districts alongside Metro Line

(43% of total launches during

period)

International School

International Hospital

Residential Project

Retail Project

Stations

HCMC Metro Lines Master Plan

The Robust Growth of E-commerce

Shopping Behaviors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Vietnam Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

The State of LTE

Coverage rate Average speed

Mobile Internet

Source: OpenSignal, JLL Research

30%52%

68% 78% 84%

70%48%

32% 22% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Year 2012 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017

% of People Using Smartphone Amongst Mobile Phone Users in Key

Cities

Smartphone Non-Smartphone

Smartphone Penetration

Source: Nielsen Vietnam Smartphone Insight Report, 4Q 2017

Millennials

Sharing economy

Social media

Technology

• Meet new people

• Share experiences

• Digital features

• Design-conscious

Flexspace and Lifestyle Hotel

LIFESTYLE HOTELS

Social and co-working spaces have become the new trends of lifestyle hotels.

Co-working/living space

Millennials often find uniquely designed rooms appealing.

Lifestyle hotel room

FLEXSPACE

• Flexible space in HCMC totaled just

~56,400sqm as of 4Q18

• Flexible space stock growth CARG of

32% from 2014-2018

• About 31 high profile operators today

• More foreign operators will enter the

market. Wework announced to open

the first centre in HCMC in 4Q18

HCMC Urbanisation

Source: World Bank

7.3

10.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Urb

an

po

pu

lati

on

mil

lio

ns

HCMC Hanoi

F F F

Rapid urbanisation puts strain on many aspects of the city

Ho Chi Minh City to spend $80mn to tackle congestion, inundation at airportSep. 2016

Air pollution at alarming rate in HCM CityJan. 2018

Up to 8.5 Million Motorbikes Flood Day

Jan. 2016

HCM City needs over US$4 bln for flood prevention, wastewater treatmentAug. 2018

[email protected]

country head of jll vietnam stephen wyatt · mobile internet source: opensignal, jll research 30%...

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