counterfactual analysis of terrorism effects on the economy: the case of israel

Counterfactual Analysis of

Terrorism Effects on the

Economy: the Case of Israel

Dotan Persitz

Master Thesis for the MA studies in TAU.Under the supervision of Prof. Dani Tsiddon and Prof. Zvi Eckstien.

Dotan Persitz

Three QuestionsFirst: How large is the adverse effect of terror on the GDP per capita since Israel suffered its first suicide attack ?Second: How did this long period of terror change the open economy national accounts composition of the GDP ?Third: Did this terror intensive period cause a structural change to the Israeli economy ?To answer those questions I will use counterfactual methodology following Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003).

Dotan Persitz

Main ResultsIf there was no terror in Israel in the last decade, the GDP per capita in 2003:3 was 8.6% higher. The portion of Investment, Exports and Imports in the GDP pie decreases while that of the Consumption and Government Expenditure increases. Weak evidence for structural change.

Dotan Persitz

Order of DiscussionShort literature survey.Brief introduction of the Methodology and the data.Results.

Dotan Persitz

Literature Survey ResultsEckstein and Tsiddon (2004):Lagged terror index is significantly negative in the GDP, Investment and Exports equations. If the terror had terminated in 2003:3 the GDP per capita would increase in 2.5% annually and recover in two years half of the reduction since the beginning of the second Intifada.If the terror had continued in its average level for two years then in 2005:3 the annual growth rate relative to 2003:3 would be -2% (-1% for non durable consumption). Fielding (2003):No terror inside the green line will lower consumption by 7.4% and increase GDP through savings by 4%. No literature concerning terror and the structure of the economy.

Dotan Persitz

Literature Survey CounterfactualAbadie and Gardeazabal (2003) try to distinguish the effect of ETA's terror from the economic behavior of Spain. They use a linear combination of other Spanish regions, which construct a "synthetic" control region that resembles the economic characteristics of the pre-terror Basque country. They compare the evolution of this control-region's GDP per capita to the actual output of the Basque country and find that the level of terror significantly and positively affects the difference between the two regions.

Dotan Persitz

Methodology 1Important remarks:This method assumes:The OECD members' economies are independent of the Palestinian terror.Israel economic behavior resembles the economic behavior of an average OECD member. This method enables the analysis of the adverse effect of the terror on the Israeli economy to be free of international economic effects on the local economy and focus on Israeli internal processes.

Dotan Persitz

Methodology 2The data set includes:Two databases were tested. The first starts at 1980:1. The second starts at 1984:1. 7/11 variables (regarded as growth indicators) of 11/12 OECD countries and Israel over 95/75 quarters.3 variables represent various characteristics of the Palestinian terror (identical to Eckstein & Tsiddon (2004)).

Dotan Persitz

Methodology 3First, I find the linear combination of the OECD countries that best resembles Israel in the pre-terror period.Each country coefficient is non-negative and less than 1 and the sum of the coefficients equals 1 (another specification allows for different coefficient for each variable).This linear combination is used to build the counter factual for the within-terror Israel.Due to time limitations I will not specify the process of choosing the coefficient vector. I will just note that it is closely related to OLS coefficients under the above mentioned constraint.

Dotan Persitz

Methodology 4The third stage is to use the counterfactual in order to estimate Palestinian terror effect on the Israeli macroeconomics.Define DIFF to be the difference between actual Israel and pseudo-Israel (dependent variable).We will use two main independent variables:Terror index (Eckstein and Tsiddon (2004)) TER.Peace Process dummy variable (Periods 1993:3-1996:2 and 1998:4-2000:3 got the value 1 and periods 1996:3-1998:3 and 2000:4-2003:3 got the value 0) PP .

Dotan Persitz

Results - Introduction4 pseudo Israel were built:Using DB80 and restricting one coefficient for each variable in the same country.Using DB84 and restricting one coefficient for each variable in the same country.Using DB80 with one coefficient per country and variable.Using DB84 with one coefficient per country and variable.In many sections an average of these four configurations was used.First, growth results will be shown. Second, national income components will be analyzed. Third, structural change will be tested.

Dotan Persitz

Counter Factual Analysis of Terrorism Effects on the Economy: the Case of Israel

Counter factual construction results

DB80

DB84

Sweden

0

0

Norway

0

0

Korea

0.173

0.001

Italy

0.066

0.415

France

0

0

Finland

0

0

Spain

0.033

0

Denmark

0.167

0.172

Belgium

0.030

0.085

Austria

0.216

0

Australia

0.315

0.327

New Zealand

-

0

Grade

1.0933

0.99757

The weights in the constrained pseudo-Israel constructions

LNGDPPC

C/GDP

I/GDP

G/GDP

EX/GDP

IM/GDP

DEN

Sweden

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Norway

0.200

0

0

0

0

0

0.037

Korea

0.033

0

0.078

0.527

0.559

0.430

0.324

Italy

0.055

0

0

0

0.094

0

0

France

0.119

0

0

0

0.032

0

0

Finland

0

0

0

0

0.078

0

0

Spain

0.170

0.288

0

0

0.014

0

0

Denmark

0.053

0

0

0

0.223

0.424

0

Belgium

0.080

0

0.471

0.473

0

0

0

Austria

0.086

0

0.451

0

0

0

0

Australia

0.204

0.712

0

0

0

0.146

0.639

Grade

0.54615

The weights in the unconstrained pseudo-Israel construction using DB80

LNGDPPC

C/GDP

I/GDP

G/GDP

EX/GDP

IM/GDP

DEN

AG/GDP

MM/GDP

CN/GDP

SR/GDP

New Zealand

0.087

0.267

0

0

0

0

0.199

0

0.218

0

0

Sweden

0.115

0

0

0

0.147

0

0.105

0

0.365

0

0.090

Norway

0.114

0

0

0

0

0

0.118

0

0

0

0.171

Korea

0.198

0

0.002

0.476

0.534

0.202

0.276

0.114

0

0.098

0.295

Italy

0

0.351

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.046

France

0.066

0

0

0

0

0.099

0

0

0.051

0

0

Finland

0.012

0

0

0

0

0

0.106

0

0

0

0.108

Spain

0.028

0.382

0

0

0.029

0.212

0

0

0

0

0

Denmark

0.251

0

0

0

0.290

0.329

0

0.261

0.366

0

0.065

Belgium

0

0

0.763

0.524

0

0

0

0

0

0.902

0.095

Austria

0.084

0

0.235

0

0

0

0

0.625

0

0

0.031

Australia

0.045

0

0

0

0

0.158

0.196

0

0

0

0.099

Grade

0.37144

The weights in the unconstrained pseudo-Israel construction using DB84

- 2-

Growth results 1

Dotan Persitz

LNGDPPC GRAPH

12.349238004411.215473206112.539634162319801980

12.490824829111.142809044712.473349909719801980

12.437229594711.135011807712.438473379919801980

12.35170809911.176287664612.522090957619801980

12.584858199711.164000507412.485829498319811981

12.82112705111.221082344912.5421423419811981

12.708796113911.302165687512.582341479819811981

12.912480975711.307818183412.603749652119811981

12.844225862311.316868057412.587375423119821982

12.538380261611.364498857912.6188832319821982

12.263095189911.386111931712.612575365519821982

13.116806686811.370182528112.601229154219821982

12.8686530911.387250599812.605010090119831983

12.832671259411.469534671312.67072685819831983

12.663126702211.590599262212.754630231919831983

12.735512628311.739912498812.878952131519831983

12.848079708211.8626446912.986292279612.704984046912.8326712594

12.640353576111.865017456212.988889797812.726600888912.796790037

12.918938830511.942391262113.09976591712.791672344612.9150637302

13.127304330712.033499207313.156216191612.87122707813.0083877523

12.93186423112.132579575213.257910075312.94091970513.1089389634

13.452895492312.248388301613.323033256113.086672698813.1812367644

13.528443042812.373961195313.454240849213.199703419513.3230332561

12.997985203712.432255697713.509516474213.247307988613.4340746163

13.447515410212.4646216213.539270127513.289767272813.4260165892

13.454240849212.528353568613.607136001413.273829116913.6221120864

13.337696656112.625194249213.663039783513.335029383513.7755373192

13.730152971512.683403922413.716429681313.391154286713.7521388002

13.887572300712.706254608913.753514082813.385798896213.757640756

14.46734963512.902155121813.943233838713.560950299214.0019185725

14.558781646212.988889797813.985126347613.598974168614.0201329034

14.155374299313.110249922814.152543507613.732899276714.1440545284

14.774376476113.27781186314.250533735313.826601217314.3492024336

14.33342698913.265867208214.259086621113.865369951614.2762077957

14.545684637213.351041023814.334860403413.883406653814.3377276622

14.486169419813.490616384314.405273590814.039774835614.4890669434

14.400952656913.551460955714.52678753314.105917089914.5442301415

14.513719305813.605775355914.618595184914.135570641114.5762626707

14.666916234913.653479002314.683058719514.162453756214.5602375971

14.398072754313.781048636414.769944827914.261938723614.7433828402

14.930324724613.863983483914.855859419414.304788782814.7995142771

15.012667746313.922334666314.904964734714.334860403414.8692357113

14.970691071413.959975762514.906455305714.337727662214.9318178317

14.984170758314.004719236315.000662414914.29049114414.9796761813

14.291920264614.059444285815.015670580114.354943262615.0036628474

14.571890447714.077733448715.062291383814.380805429515.0472366211

14.798034399714.176623293515.113590333314.434112967715.1635475655

15.334333916614.170953778215.118125090614.418244172915.1332507773

15.417363297314.284776090615.283814018314.50936584315.2945164335

15.562969790614.247683913515.198463863314.458671828915.2197566142

15.098484297314.257660783815.244127716414.447109516915.2136699289

15.003662847414.293349528115.210627499214.442776034115.1923856935

15.267011066214.327694764715.21214863814.464456454415.2106274992

14.80247447614.366431812115.238031284714.473137732415.2654844414

15.747700602514.392314676915.294516433514.432669628615.3773302183

15.902786749314.541321586315.47915625414.58209434215.5256634487

16.246773920914.713925541615.561413571514.702159108415.6895417704

15.823471269514.823212453515.680130868914.841010985415.8662523704

15.804494492314.92435378915.742977000914.916893477315.9473769493

16.523677646115.057773374215.893247939214.975182952516.1415123611

16.578295852815.158999183615.947376949315.086410340116.2679084614

16.788503910315.210627499215.979303619315.099994221216.293957949

17.004777961415.299105476816.094769784715.180236645216.4116978011

16.433046882115.343537277616.159277793915.231937291116.4741808954

16.703100504115.47915625416.306998330815.329734306416.6414132241

16.87940704915.552079523816.329844116815.329734306416.6847371952

16.815387017315.644108010116.475828395915.389637004516.8372612356

16.943670819615.675427535216.470886388715.383482380716.8406290246

16.903054768415.735107479916.596542011815.442050823316.9419765372

17.02689854815.909149136416.771723797815.658194045117.1550803681

16.950449643615.974510547216.847366623615.698958320217.2031819038

16.753285044816.073860178216.994578154915.809236551917.2790426755

16.845681971216.016098315317.045638441515.885303301517.124228998

16.780111756516.019301855317.14136179215.925066242717.1156690237

16.92842837616.114095101317.192863090716.019301855317.1928630907

17.091723852616.238652564417.26349853316.04976746217.3101729612

16.636421548916.373994271817.372601888516.138284381417.505136657

16.955535541316.531941550717.463174703616.207828416817.6439749257

16.952144773316.668060797617.635155143416.298846869717.8391300352

17.225560583316.845681971217.798147184516.449488148318.0562947053

17.296330360616.947059892617.901676382616.518721286318.1922260208

17.665160404417.091723852617.987810986916.624780128818.2980475175

18.23776348417.177396474918.04546417816.683068804918.4357987954

17.640446483617.160227664318.099681856316.706441458318.4487083724

17.686371320917.213506910218.184950585616.766693035318.4930384473

17.242794759517.258320260318.232292975616.812024276218.5504558174

16.967408571317.348297263118.298047517516.865908923318.6248062424

16.689743367317.386505530718.325515184316.877719192718.6695594598

16.698090325517.491138147918.360366761716.919966277518.7725249323

16.790182844617.578812842718.483794239316.970802392418.8987231413

16.531941550717.626339769818.487491367917.014983889618.9100657776

16.674729355617.672227881918.530061534917.016685473118.9687779383

16.589904722517.716463723418.518946832817.03541412618.9820607313

16.452778374917.691678028218.522650992517.011581233118.9441345487

16.689743367317.77502462618.617357809717.086597104519.0257697171

The start point of the internal process

The beginning of the second Intifada

Actual

Pseudo (DB80, Constrained)

Pseudo (DB80, Unconstrained)



Quarters

Yearly GDP Per Capita in Thousands 1995 USD

GDPPC: Actual Vs. Pseudo Israel (1980:1-2003:3)

LNGDPPC

YEARQUARTERTERACTUAL ISRAELD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCD88CPD88CD88UCPD88UC

1980101.127312.34923800441.03111.21547320611.142612.5396341623

1980201.138712.49082482911.024511.14280904471.137312.4733499097

1980301.134412.43722959471.023811.13501180771.134512.4384733799

1980401.127512.3517080991.027511.17628766461.141212.5220909576

1981101.146212.58485819971.026411.16400050741.138312.4858294983

1981201.164812.8211270511.031511.22108234491.142812.54214234

1981301.15612.70879611391.038711.30216568751.14612.5823414798

1981401.171912.91248097571.039211.30781818341.147712.6037496521

1982101.166612.84422586231.0411.31686805741.146412.5873754231

1982201.142512.53838026161.044211.36449885791.148912.61888323

1982301.120312.26309518991.046111.38611193171.148412.6125753655

1982401.187613.11680668681.044711.37018252811.147512.6012291542

1983101.168512.868653091.046211.38725059981.147812.6050100901

1983201.165712.83267125941.053411.46953467131.15312.670726858

1983301.152412.66312670221.063911.59059926221.159612.7546302319

198340.51082562381.158112.73551262831.076711.73991249881.169312.8789521315

1984101.166912.84807970821.087111.862644691.177612.98629227961.155712.70498404691.165712.8326712594

1984201.150612.64035357611.087311.86501745621.177812.98888979781.157412.72660088891.162912.796790037

1984301.172412.91893883051.093811.94239126211.186313.0997659171.162512.79167234461.172112.9150637302

198440.51082562381.188413.12730433071.101412.03349920731.190613.15621619161.168712.8712270781.179313.0083877523

1985101.173412.9318642311.109612.13257957521.198313.25791007531.174112.9409197051.18713.1089389634

198520.69314718061.212913.45289549231.119112.24838830161.203213.32303325611.185313.08667269881.192513.1812367644

1985301.218513.52844304281.129312.37396119531.21313.45424084921.193913.19970341951.203213.3230332561

1985401.178512.99798520371.13412.43225569771.217113.50951647421.197513.24730798861.211513.4340746163

1986101.212513.44751541021.136612.464621621.219313.53927012751.200713.28976727281.210913.4260165892

1986201.21313.45424084921.141712.52835356861.224313.60713600141.199513.27382911691.225413.6221120864

1986301.204313.33769665611.149412.62519424921.228413.66303978351.204113.33502938351.236613.7755373192

198640.51082562381.233313.73015297151.15412.68340392241.232313.71642968131.208313.39115428671.234913.7521388002

1987101.244713.88757230071.155812.70625460891.23513.75351408281.207913.38579889621.235313.757640756

1987201.285614.4673496351.171112.90215512181.248713.94323383871.220913.56095029921.252914.0019185725

1987301.291914.55878164621.177812.98888979781.251713.98512634761.223713.59897416861.254214.0201329034

1987401.263814.15537429931.187113.11024992281.263614.15254350761.233513.73289927671.26314.1440545284

1988101.306614.77437647611.199813.2778118631.270514.25053373531.240313.82660121731.277414.34920243361.31861.2879

1988201.276314.3334269891.198913.26586720821.271114.25908662111.243113.86536995161.272314.27620779571.31751.2798

1988301.29114.54568463721.205313.35104102381.276414.33486040341.244413.88340665381.276614.33772766221.33011.2809

1988401.286914.48616941981.215713.49061638431.281314.40527359081.255614.03977483561.287114.48906694341.34021.2865

198910.51082562381.28114.40095265691.220213.55146095571.289714.5267875331.260314.10591708991.290914.54423014151.34421.2904

1989201.288814.51371930581.224213.60577535591.29614.61859518491.262414.13557064111.293114.57626267071.35321.2917

1989301.299314.66691623491.227713.65347900231.300414.68305871951.264314.16245375621.29214.56023759711.35961.2861

1989401.280814.39807275431.23713.78104863641.306314.76994482791.271314.26193872361.304514.74338284021.37121.3007

1990101.317114.93032472461.24313.86398348391.312114.85585941941.274314.30478878281.308314.79951427711.38121.3092

199021.54044504091.322615.01266774631.247213.92233466631.315414.90496473471.276414.33486040341.31314.86923571131.38241.3147

199030.9808292531.319814.97069107141.249913.95997576251.315514.90645530571.276614.33772766221.317214.93181783171.38621.3114

199042.7515353131.320714.98417075831.253114.00471923631.321815.00066241491.273314.2904911441.320414.97967618131.39221.3197

199110.9808292531.273414.29192026461.25714.05944428581.322815.01567058011.277814.35494326261.32215.00366284741.39941.3101

1991201.292814.57189044771.258314.07773344871.325915.06229138381.279614.38080542951.324915.04723662111.3991.3122

1991301.308214.79803439971.265314.17662329351.329315.11359033331.283314.43411296771.332615.16354756551.4051.3219

199141.73460105541.343815.33433391661.264914.17095377821.329615.11812509061.282214.41824417291.330615.13325077731.40821.3195

199210.84729786041.349215.41736329731.272914.28477609061.340515.28381401831.288514.5093658431.341215.29451643351.41751.3345

199221.09861228871.358615.56296979061.270314.24768391351.334915.19846386331.28514.45867182891.336315.21975661421.41661.329

199230.84729786041.328315.09848429731.27114.25766078381.337915.24412771641.284214.44710951691.335915.21366992891.41521.332

199240.51082562381.32215.00366284741.273514.29334952811.335715.21062749921.283914.44277603411.334515.19238569351.41921.3314

1993101.339415.26701106621.275914.32769476471.335815.2121486381.285414.46445645441.335715.21062749921.42381.3386

1993201.308514.8024744761.278614.36643181211.337515.23803128471.28614.47313773241.339315.26548444141.4281.3488

199330.51082562381.370415.74770060251.280414.39231467691.341215.29451643351.283214.43266962861.346615.37733021831.43021.3583

199342.70805020111.380215.90278674931.290714.54132158631.353215.4791562541.293514.5820943421.356215.52566344871.44021.3749

199411.60943791241.401616.24677392091.302514.71392554161.358515.56141357151.301714.70215910841.366715.68954177041.45481.3798

199423.51650822821.375215.82347126951.309914.82321245351.366115.68013086891.311114.84101098541.377915.86625237041.45991.3763

199431.20397280431.37415.80449449230.0572661.316714.9243537890.00388311.370115.74297700090.0578231.316214.9168934773-0.00901011.38315.9473769493-0.0947051.4687-0.0100241.384

199443.55534806151.418516.52367764610.0929031.325615.05777337420.0389311.379615.89324793920.0983771.320114.97518295250.0233731.395116.1415123611-0.0600831.47860.0180771.4004

199513.41224721781.421816.57829585280.0895011.332315.15899918360.0388641.38315.94737694930.0942951.327515.08641034010.0189341.402916.2679084614-0.065941.48780.0145011.4073

1995201.434416.78850391030.0987281.335715.21062749920.0493691.38515.97930361930.106031.328415.09999422120.0298731.404516.293957949-0.0590871.49350.0242691.4101

199533.8849943331.447217.00477796140.105711.341515.29910547680.0550151.392216.09476978470.113491.333715.18023664520.0354911.411716.4116978011-0.0515421.49870.0264451.4208

1995401.41316.43304688210.0686131.344415.34353727760.016791.396216.15927779390.0759181.337115.2319372911-0.00254681.415516.4741808954-0.0883541.5013-0.0118141.4248

199614.36521951641.429316.70310050410.0761531.353215.4791562540.0240861.405316.30699833080.0858521.343515.32973430640.00370891.425616.6414132241-0.0845421.5139-0.00937611.4387

199620.69314718061.439816.8794070490.0819261.357915.55207952380.0331321.406716.32984411680.096261.343515.32973430640.0116461.428216.6847371952-0.0781291.5179-0.00173991.4415

199630.84729786041.43616.81538701730.0722311.363815.64410801010.0204091.415616.47582839590.0886391.347415.3896370045-0.00124271.437316.8372612356-0.0896161.5257-0.0174671.4535

1996401.443616.94367081960.0778581.365815.67542753520.0283211.415316.47088638870.0966221.34715.38348238070.00609861.437516.8406290246-0.0846241.5283-0.0109181.4546

199713.30810695861.441216.90305476840.0716191.369615.73510747990.0182561.422916.59654201180.0904191.350815.4420508233-0.00229881.443516.9419765372-0.0880041.5292-0.0215491.4627

1997201.448517.0268985480.0678321.380615.90914913640.0150431.433416.77172379780.0837621.364715.6581940451-0.00753171.45617.1550803681-0.0948191.5433-0.0309051.4794

199734.94639302541.44416.95044964360.0593151.384715.97451054720.00611031.437916.84736662360.0766781.367315.6989583202-0.0147621.458817.2031819038-0.105131.5492-0.0380661.4821

199741.09861228871.432316.75328504480.0413641.390916.0738601782-0.0142841.446616.99457815490.057981.374315.8092365519-0.0308791.463217.2790426755-0.124441.5567-0.0542431.4865

199810.51082562381.437816.84568197120.0504511.387316.0160983153-0.0118211.449617.04563844150.0586671.379115.8853033015-0.0164341.454217.124228998-0.11131.5491-0.0454191.4832

199820.51082562381.433916.78011175650.0464091.387516.0193018553-0.0212611.455217.1413617920.0523311.381615.9250662427-0.0197811.453717.1156690237-0.117781.5517-0.0433051.4772

199831.89711998491.442716.9284283760.0493641.393416.1140951013-0.0154341.458217.19286309070.0551931.387516.0193018553-0.0154431.458217.1928630907-0.113741.5565-0.0379131.4807

199843.367295831.452317.09172385260.0511771.401116.2386525644-0.0099581.462317.2634985330.06291.389416.049767462-0.0126531.46517.3101729612-0.115061.5674-0.0308811.4832

1999101.425316.63642154890.0159191.409416.3739942718-0.0433371.468617.37260188850.0303641.394916.1382843814-0.0508661.476217.505136657-0.150931.5762-0.0639411.4893

1999201.444316.95553554130.0253381.41916.5319415507-0.0295031.473817.46317470360.0451541.399216.2078284168-0.0397791.484117.6439749257-0.145211.5895-0.0500751.4944

199931.84582669051.444116.95214477330.0169771.427216.6680607976-0.0394311.483617.63515514340.0393591.404816.2988468697-0.050941.495117.8391300352-0.155691.5998-0.0593961.5035

199942.33537491581.460117.22556058330.0222621.437816.8456819712-0.0327471.492817.79814718450.0460781.41416.4494881483-0.0471311.507218.0562947053-0.151841.6119-0.0544371.5145

2000101.464217.29633036060.0203691.443816.9470598926-0.0344571.498617.90167638260.0460121.418216.5187212863-0.0505741.514718.1922260208-0.156861.621-0.0637181.5279

2000201.485317.66516040440.0330311.452317.0917238526-0.0181031.503417.98781098690.0606931.424616.6247801288-0.0352031.520518.2980475175-0.145211.6305-0.0469951.5323

2000301.517218.2377634840.0599341.457317.17739647490.0106071.506618.0454641780.0891071.428116.6830688049-0.0107981.52818.4357987954-0.118281.6355-0.0190361.5362

200043.51650822821.483917.64044648360.027511.456317.1602276643-0.0256951.509618.09968185630.0543681.429516.7064414583-0.0448171.528718.4487083724-0.150131.634-0.0555091.5394

200114.08317126161.486517.68637132090.0271021.459417.2135069102-0.0277771.514318.18495058560.0534431.433116.7666930353-0.0445631.531118.4930384473-0.151931.6385-0.04561.5321

200124.99269759341.461117.2427947595-0.000888911.46217.2583202603-0.0557461.516918.23229297560.0253711.435816.8120242762-0.073031.534218.5504558174-0.178941.6401-0.071781.5329

200134.42684065051.44516.9674085713-0.0222311.467217.3482972631-0.0754981.520518.29804751750.00602821.43916.8659089233-0.0931871.538218.6248062424-0.200921.6459-0.0933841.5384

200144.99043258681.428516.6897433673-0.0408971.469417.3865055307-0.0934511.52218.3255151843-0.0111751.439716.8777191927-0.11211.540618.6695594598-0.220931.6495-0.113061.5416

200215.7889402831.42916.6980903255-0.0464141.475417.4911381479-0.0949521.523918.3603667617-0.0132061.442216.9199662775-0.117191.546118.7725249323-0.227581.6565-0.122651.5516

200225.32463467491.434516.7901828446-0.0458521.480417.5788128427-0.0960531.530618.4837942393-0.0107241.445216.9708023924-0.118291.552818.8987231413-0.229461.664-0.129321.5638

200234.5468346091.41916.5319415507-0.0641441.483117.6263397698-0.111871.530818.4874913679-0.0288281.447817.0149838896-0.134391.553418.9100657776-0.247771.6668-0.144551.5635

200244.51451581771.427616.6747293556-0.0580841.485717.6722278819-0.105421.533118.5300615349-0.0202081.447917.0166854731-0.128851.556518.9687779383-0.243531.6712-0.142431.5701

200314.47733681451.422516.5899047225-0.0656221.488217.7164637234-0.109961.532518.5189468328-0.0264351.44917.035414126-0.13471.557218.9820607313-0.251191.6737-0.148051.5706

200324.42284862921.414216.4527783749-0.0725851.486817.6916780282-0.118511.532718.5226509925-0.0334581.447617.0115812331-0.141051.555218.9441345487-0.258331.6725-0.153341.5675

200334.37785126331.428516.6897433673-0.0629771.491517.775024626-0.109271.537818.6173578097-0.0234811.45217.0865971045-0.130981.559519.0257697171-0.250531.679-0.146571.5751

-0.02750.9728746826-2.7125317447

0.0091.00904062180.9040621774

-0.05780.9438386963-5.6161303699

-0.00290.9971042009-0.2895799062

0.04481.04581867534.5818675256

-0.05150.94980365-5.0196350038

0.08171.08513022198.5130221927

0.1311.139967781313.9967781312

0.02351.02377830072.3778300747

Growth results - 2

1994:32000:32003:3DB80C14.9243517.177417.77502DB80UC15.7429818.0454618.61736DB84C14.9168916.6830717.0866DB84UC15.9473818.435819.02577CF AVERAGE15.382917.5854318.12619

ACTUAL15.8044918.2377616.68974

Mean Loss-0.42(-2.7%)-0.65(-3.6%)1.44(8.6%)

Dotan Persitz

Growth results - 3The counterfactual is built using data on the periods preceding the massive terror attacks of the Palestinians.Therefore, the counterfactual is characterized as a potential terror-free Israel. Another characteristic of the counterfactual is that it is a peace process free Israel, since during most of its construction period (except of the last 4 quarters) there was no substantial progress in the negotiation with the Palestinians. Therefore, the main assumption in the basis of the following analysis is that if there was no terror, but also no peace process, Israel should have been observed, economically, as the counterfactual.

Dotan Persitz

Growth results - 4TER:TER coefficient average across configurations is -0.0032.The negative sign means, that the Palestinian terror caused significant reduction to the Israeli GDP per capita since the mid-90's compared to the possible behavior of the Israeli economy in a peaceful environment. PP:The average of the sum of the three PP coefficients is 0.0128.Their weight is of the same scale of TER but, evidently, to the opposite direction.

Dotan Persitz

Growth results 5

Dotan Persitz

LNGDPPC GRAPH

1.12731.0311.142619801980

1.13871.02451.137319801980

1.13441.02381.134519801980

1.12751.02751.141219801980

1.14621.02641.138319811981

1.16481.03151.142819811981

1.1561.03871.14619811981

1.17191.03921.147719811981

1.16661.041.146419821982

1.14251.04421.148919821982

1.12031.04611.148419821982

1.18761.04471.147519821982

1.16851.04621.147819831983

1.16571.05341.15319831983

1.15241.06391.159619831983

1.15811.07671.169319831983

1.16691.08711.17761.15571.1657

1.15061.08731.17781.15741.1629

1.17241.09381.18631.16251.1721

1.18841.10141.19061.16871.1793

1.17341.10961.19831.17411.187

1.21291.11911.20321.18531.1925

1.21851.12931.2131.19391.2032

1.17851.1341.21711.19751.2115

1.21251.13661.21931.20071.2109

1.2131.14171.22431.19951.2254

1.20431.14941.22841.20411.2366

1.23331.1541.23231.20831.2349

1.24471.15581.2351.20791.2353

1.28561.17111.24871.22091.2529

1.29191.17781.25171.22371.2542

1.26381.18711.26361.23351.263

1.30661.19981.27051.24031.2774

1.27631.19891.27111.24311.2723

1.2911.20531.27641.24441.2766

1.28691.21571.28131.25561.2871

1.2811.22021.28971.26031.2909

1.28881.22421.2961.26241.2931

1.29931.22771.30041.26431.292

1.28081.2371.30631.27131.3045

1.31711.2431.31211.27431.3083

1.32261.24721.31541.27641.313

1.31981.24991.31551.27661.3172

1.32071.25311.32181.27331.3204

1.27341.2571.32281.27781.322

1.29281.25831.32591.27961.3249

1.30821.26531.32931.28331.3326

1.34381.26491.32961.28221.3306

1.34921.27291.34051.28851.3412

1.35861.27031.33491.2851.3363

1.32831.2711.33791.28421.3359

1.3221.27351.33571.28391.3345

1.33941.27591.33581.28541.3357

1.30851.27861.33751.2861.3393

1.37041.28041.34121.28321.3466

1.38021.29071.35321.29351.3562

1.40161.30251.35851.30171.3667

1.37521.30991.36611.31111.3779

1.3741.31671.37011.31621.383

1.41851.32561.37961.32011.3951

1.42181.33231.3831.32751.4029

1.43441.33571.3851.32841.4045

1.44721.34151.39221.33371.4117

1.4131.34441.39621.33711.4155

1.42931.35321.40531.34351.4256

1.43981.35791.40671.34351.4282

1.4361.36381.41561.34741.4373

1.44361.36581.41531.3471.4375

1.44121.36961.42291.35081.4435

1.44851.38061.43341.36471.456

1.4441.38471.43791.36731.4588

1.43231.39091.44661.37431.4632

1.43781.38731.44961.37911.4542

1.43391.38751.45521.38161.4537

1.44271.39341.45821.38751.4582

1.45231.40111.46231.38941.465

1.42531.40941.46861.39491.4762

1.44431.4191.47381.39921.4841

1.44411.42721.48361.40481.4951

1.46011.43781.49281.4141.5072

1.46421.44381.49861.41821.5147

1.48531.45231.50341.42461.5205

1.51721.45731.50661.42811.528

1.48391.45631.50961.42951.5287

1.48651.45941.51431.43311.5311

1.46111.4621.51691.43581.5342

1.4451.46721.52051.4391.5382

1.42851.46941.5221.43971.5406

1.4291.47541.52391.44221.5461

1.43451.48041.53061.44521.5528

1.4191.48311.53081.44781.5534

1.42761.48571.53311.44791.5565

1.42251.48821.53251.4491.5572

1.41421.48681.53271.44761.5552

1.42851.49151.53781.4521.5595

The start point of the internal process

The beginning of the second Intifada

Actual





Quarters

Natural Logarithm of GDP Per Capita (Thousands 1995 USD)

LNGDPPC: Actual Vs. Pseudo Israel (1980:1-2003:3)

IRAV455

010.4488010.4488

-0.80019.648730165-1.4446259.004205165

-0.704653749.7441743913-1.2722914759.1765366563

-0.62065424119.8281721186-1.1206257139.3282006466

-0.54672110399.9021037122-0.98713532669.4616894896

-0.4816413469.9671821252-0.8696302089.5791932632

-0.42434897810.024473321-0.76618565479.6826366442

-0.373907087810.0749141895-0.67511001969.7737112576

-0.329492119710.1193282669-0.59491632729.8539040594

-0.290380080410.1584395295-0.52429736749.9245222425

-0.255934433310.1928844993-0.46210383799.9867150946

-0.225595473310.2232228686-0.4073251610.0414931818

-0.198870999610.2499468269-0.359072638110.0897451884

-0.175328128310.2734892485-0.316564676110.1322527007

-0.154586103110.2942308814-0.279113797310.1697031872

-0.136309982610.3125066594-0.246115246410.2027013956

-0.120205096610.3286112464-0.2170369810.2317793631

-0.10601217710.342803905-0.191410875110.2574052069

-0.093503080710.3553127734-0.168825006910.2799908472

-0.082477032610.3663386224-0.148916864510.2998987906

-0.072757324110.3760581571-0.131367390710.3174480904

TER=2.52 & PP=0

TER=2.52 & PP=1

TER=4.55 & PP=0

TER=4.55 & PP=1

Quarter (the shock is in quarter 0)

Deviation from potential (percentage)

Impulse response of DIFF to terror shock (ter=2.52, pp=0)

IRAV252

00

-0.8001-1.444625

-0.70465374-1.272291475

-0.6206542411-1.120625713

-0.5467211039-0.9871353266

-0.481641346-0.869630208

-0.424348978-0.7661856547

-0.3739070878-0.6751100196

-0.3294921197-0.5949163272

-0.2903800804-0.5242973674

-0.2559344333-0.4621038379

-0.2255954733-0.40732516

-0.1988709996-0.3590726381

-0.1753281283-0.3165646761

-0.1545861031-0.2791137973

-0.1363099826-0.2461152464

-0.1202050966-0.21703698

-0.106012177-0.1914108751

-0.0935030807-0.1688250069

-0.0824770326-0.1489168645

-0.0727573241-0.1313673907

TER=2.52 (1994:3-2003:3 Average)

TER=4.55 (2000:4-2003:3 Average)

Quarter

Deviation from potential in percentages

IR of DIFF to terror shock assuming no Peace Process

IR1

0000

-0.006804-0.009828-0.004788-0.010584

-0.0060446736-0.008609328-0.0041377896-0.0093943584

-0.005370088-0.0075417713-0.0035758778-0.0083384325

-0.0047707862-0.0066065917-0.0030902736-0.0074011927

-0.0042383665-0.0057873743-0.0026706144-0.0065692986

-0.0037653648-0.0050697399-0.002307945-0.0058309095

-0.0033451501-0.0044410922-0.0019945261-0.0051755152

-0.0029718313-0.0038903967-0.0017236694-0.0045937873

-0.0026401749-0.0034079875-0.0014895951-0.0040774456

-0.0023455314-0.0029853971-0.0012873081-0.0036191407

-0.0020837701-0.0026152078-0.0011124917-0.0032123493

-0.0018512214-0.0022909221-0.0009614153-0.0028512813

-0.0016446251-0.0020068477-0.0008308551-0.0025307973

-0.0014610849-0.0017579986-0.000718025-0.0022463356

-0.0012980278-0.0015400068-0.0006205172-0.0019938475

-0.0011531679-0.0013490459-0.0005362509-0.0017697391

-0.0010244744-0.0011817642-0.0004634281-0.0015708204

-0.000910143-0.0010352255-0.0004004945-0.0013942602

-0.0008085711-0.0009068575-0.0003461074-0.0012375453

-0.0007183345-0.0007944072-0.000299106-0.0010984452

D80C

D80UC

D84C

D84UC

Quarter (the shock is in quarter 0)

Deviation from potential (percentage)

Impulse response of DIFF to terror shock (ter=2.52, pp=0)

Impulse response

PeriodD80CD80UCD84CD84UCAveragePPTERPeriodD80CD80UCD84CD84UCAveragePPTER

-20000000-20.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448810

-10000000-10.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448810

00000002.5200.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448812.52

1-0.006804-0.009828-0.004788-0.010584-0.80010010.11954000960.07646230280.13291493260.05703196169.64873016510

2-0.0060446736-0.008609328-0.0041377896-0.0093943584-0.704653740020.12029934450.07768097730.13356508480.05822156919.744174391310

3-0.005370088-0.0075417713-0.0035758778-0.0083384325-0.62065424110030.12097393770.07874853610.13412694620.05927746479.828172118610

4-0.0047707862-0.0066065917-0.0030902736-0.0074011927-0.54672110390040.12157324620.07968371760.13461250690.06021467779.902103712210

5-0.0042383665-0.0057873743-0.0026706144-0.0065692986-0.4816413460050.1221056720.08050293660.13503212850.06104654799.967182125210

6-0.0037653648-0.0050697399-0.002307945-0.0058309095-0.4243489780060.1225786790.08122057250.13539476550.061784915910.02447332110

7-0.0033451501-0.0044410922-0.0019945261-0.0051755152-0.37390708780070.12299889840.08184922150.13570815630.062440291410.074914189510

8-0.0029718313-0.0038903967-0.0017236694-0.0045937873-0.32949211970080.12337222130.0823999180.13597898870.063022002610.119328266910

9-0.0026401749-0.0034079875-0.0014895951-0.0040774456-0.29038008040090.12370388140.08288232820.1362130420.063538329510.158439529510

10-0.0023455314-0.0029853971-0.0012873081-0.0036191407-0.255934433300100.12399852830.08330491950.13641531090.063996621310.192884499310

11-0.0020837701-0.0026152078-0.0011124917-0.0032123493-0.225595473300110.12426029250.08367510950.13659011170.064403401110.223222868610

12-0.0018512214-0.0022909221-0.0009614153-0.0028512813-0.198870999600120.12449284390.08399939590.13674117450.064764458810.249946826910

13-0.0016446251-0.0020068477-0.0008308551-0.0025307973-0.175328128300130.12469944250.08428347080.1368717230.065084933610.273489248510

14-0.0014610849-0.0017579986-0.000718025-0.0022463356-0.154586103100140.12488298470.08453232040.1369845430.065369387110.294230881410

15-0.0012980278-0.0015400068-0.0006205172-0.0019938475-0.136309982600150.12504604360.08475031270.13708204210.06562186810.312506659410

16-0.0011531679-0.0013490459-0.0005362509-0.0017697391-0.120205096600160.12519090510.08494127390.13716630080.0658459710.328611246410

17-0.0010244744-0.0011817642-0.0004634281-0.0015708204-0.10601217700170.12531960010.0851085560.13723911710.06604488310.34280390510

18-0.000910143-0.0010352255-0.0004004945-0.0013942602-0.093503080700180.12543393280.0852550950.1373020450.066221438110.355312773410

19-0.0008085711-0.0009068575-0.0003461074-0.0012375453-0.082477032600190.12553550590.08538346320.13735642730.066378148510.366338622410

20-0.0007183345-0.0007944072-0.000299106-0.0010984452-0.072757324100200.12562574340.08549591380.13740342450.066517244610.376058157110

-20000000-20.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448810

-10000000-10.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448810

00000004.5500.1263440.08629030.1377030.06761610.448814.55

1-0.012285-0.017745-0.008645-0.01911-1.4446250010.11405900960.06854530280.12905793260.04850596169.00420516510

2-0.010913994-0.01554462-0.007471009-0.016962036-1.2722914750020.11543002410.07074568530.13023186540.05065389159.176536656310

3-0.0096959923-0.0136170871-0.006456446-0.0150555032-1.1206257130030.11664803340.07267322030.1312463780.05256039419.328200646610

4-0.0086139195-0.0119285683-0.0055796606-0.0133632646-0.98713532660040.11773011290.0743617410.13212311990.05425260589.461689489610

5-0.0076526061-0.0104494258-0.0048219427-0.0118612337-0.8696302080050.11869143230.07584088510.13288080020.05575461299.579193263210

6-0.0067985753-0.009153697-0.0041671229-0.010528031-0.76618565470060.11954546850.07713661530.13353558750.05708779449.682636644210

7-0.0060398543-0.0080186386-0.0036012276-0.0093446803-0.67511001960070.12030419420.0782716750.13410145480.05827112639.773711257610

8-0.0053658065-0.0070243274-0.0031121809-0.0082943382-0.59491632720080.12097824610.07926598730.13459047720.05932145179.853904059410

9-0.0047669825-0.0061533108-0.0026895467-0.0073620546-0.52429736740090.12157707380.08013700490.13501309040.06025372069.924522242510

10-0.0042349873-0.0053903003-0.0023243063-0.0065345597-0.462103837900100.12210907240.08090001630.13537831270.06108120249.986715094610

11-0.0037623627-0.004721903-0.0020086655-0.0058000752-0.4073251600110.12258169990.08156841430.13569393790.061815675210.041493181810

12-0.003342483-0.0041363871-0.0017358887-0.0051481467-0.359072638100120.12300158220.08215393090.13596670110.062467593310.089745188410

13-0.0029694619-0.0036234751-0.001500155-0.004569495-0.316564676100130.12337460560.08266684350.13620242310.063046235810.132252700710

14-0.00263807-0.0031741642-0.001296434-0.0040558838-0.279113797300140.12370599960.08311615490.1364061340.063559838910.169703187210

15-0.0023436614-0.0027805678-0.0011203782-0.0036000025-0.246115246400150.12400041010.08350975170.1365821810.06401571310.202701395610

16-0.0020821087-0.0024357774-0.0009682309-0.0031953622-0.2170369800160.12426196430.08385454250.13673432080.064420346910.231779363110

17-0.0018497454-0.002133741-0.0008367451-0.0028362035-0.191410875100170.12449432910.08415657920.13686580010.064779499910.257405206910

18-0.0016433138-0.0018691571-0.0007231151-0.0025174142-0.168825006900180.1247007620.08442116340.13697942440.065098284110.279990847210

19-0.00145992-0.0016373816-0.0006249161-0.0022344568-0.148916864500190.12488415690.08465293910.13707761860.06538123710.299898790610

20-0.0012969929-0.0014343463-0.0005400525-0.0019833039-0.131367390700200.1250470850.08485597470.1371624780.065632385910.317448090410

21-0.0011522485-0.0012564874-0.0004667134-0.0017603805-0.115895744700

22-0.0010236576-0.0011006829-0.0004033337-0.0015625138-0.102254699300

23-0.0009094174-0.0009641983-0.000348561-0.0013868872-0.09022659600

24-0.0008079264-0.0008446377-0.0003012264-0.0012310011-0.079619789300

25-0.0007177618-0.0007399026-0.0002603198-0.0010926366-0.070265521100

26-0.0006376596-0.0006481547-0.0002249684-0.0009698242-0.062015172900

27-0.0005664968-0.0005677835-0.0001944177-0.000860816-0.054737849300

28-0.0005032758-0.0004973783-0.0001680158-0.0007640603-0.048318253400

29-0.0004471102-0.0004357034-0.0001451992-0.0006781799-0.042654818300

30-0.0003972127-0.0003816762-0.0001254812-0.0006019525-0.037658063400

31-0.0003528837-0.0003343484-0.0001084408-0.000534293-0.033249148700

32-0.0003135019-0.0002928892-0.0000937146-0.0004742385-0.029358603200

33-0.0002785151-0.0002565709-0.0000809881-0.0004209341-0.025925205300

34-0.0002474328-0.0002247561-0.0000699899-0.0003736211-0.022894998900

35-0.0002198193-0.0001968864-0.0000604853-0.0003316261-0.020220426300

36-0.0001952875-0.0001724724-0.0000522714-0.0002943513-0.017859565800

37-0.0001734934-0.0001510859-0.0000451729-0.0002612662-0.015775460600

38-0.0001541315-0.0001323512-0.0000390385-0.0002318999-0.013935527600

39-0.0001369305-0.0001159397-0.000033737-0.0002058343-0.012311037600

40-0.000121649-0.0001015631-0.0000291555-0.0001826986-0.010876656900

41-0.000108073-0.0000889693-0.0000251962-0.0001621632-0.009610044400

42-0.000096012-0.0000779371-0.0000217746-0.0001439361-0.008491495900

43-0.0000852971-0.0000682729-0.0000188176-0.0001277577-0.007503632100

44-0.0000757779-0.0000598071-0.0000162622-0.0001133977-0.006631122400

45-0.0000673211-0.000052391-0.0000140538-0.0001006518-0.005860442400

46-0.0000598081-0.0000458945-0.0000121453-0.0000893385-0.005179660200

47-0.0000531335-0.0000402036-0.0000104959-0.0000792969-0.004578248200

48-0.0000472038-0.0000352183-0.0000090706-0.0000703839-0.004046916600

49-0.0000419359-0.0000308513-0.0000078388-0.0000624728-0.003577467600

50-0.0000372558-0.0000270257-0.0000067743-0.0000554508-0.003162666400

Average output

16.845681971216.845681971216.845681971216.845681971216.845681971216.8456819712

16.780111756516.780111756516.780111756516.780111756516.780111756516.7801117565

16.92842837616.92842837616.92842837616.92842837616.92842837616.928428376

17.091723852617.091723852617.091723852617.091723852617.091723852617.0917238526

16.636421548916.636421548916.636421548916.636421548916.636421548916.6364215489

16.955535541316.955535541316.955535541316.955535541316.955535541316.9555355413

16.952144773316.952144773316.952144773316.952144773316.952144773316.9521447733

17.225560583317.225560583317.225560583317.225560583317.225560583317.2255605833

17.296330360617.296330360617.296330360617.296330360617.296330360617.2963303606

17.665160404417.665160404417.665160404417.665160404417.665160404417.6651604044

18.23776348418.23776348418.23776348418.23776348418.23776348418.237763484

17.640446483617.640446483617.640446483617.640446483617.640446483617.6404464836

17.686371320917.686371320917.686371320917.686371320917.686371320917.6863713209

17.242794759517.242794759517.242794759517.242794759517.242794759517.2427947595

16.967408571316.967408571316.967408571316.967408571316.967408571316.9674085713

16.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.6897433673

16.698090325516.698090325516.698090325516.698090325516.698090325516.6980903255

16.790182844616.790182844616.790182844616.790182844616.790182844616.7901828446

16.531941550716.531941550716.531941550716.531941550716.531941550716.5319415507

16.674729355616.674729355616.674729355616.674729355616.674729355616.6747293556

16.589904722516.589904722516.589904722516.589904722516.589904722516.5899047225

16.452778374916.452778374916.452778374916.452778374916.452778374916.4527783749

16.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.689743367316.6897433673

16.645609132216.645609132216.645609132217.036310350617.036310350617.0363103506

16.842580381616.606147494716.606147494717.063038246416.82361836216.823618362

17.021710883316.574788179616.574788179617.437916365216.980774763916.9807747639

17.184742142116.550506744516.550506744517.777680801317.123198795817.1231987958

17.333284434516.532415263416.532415263418.085345432817.252493647917.2524936479

17.468817445816.755070615116.51974281118.363811302617.616559461617.3701142105

17.592693699516.957253682616.511819020718.615830148417.946643931317.477374094217.715

17.706143936917.140934503516.508060171718.843981715118.245692201717.5754543072

Second Intifada

Prediction

No Terror and No Peace Process

1 Year Terror and No Peace Process

2 Years Terror and No Peace Process

No Terror and Ongoing Peace Process

1 Year of Terror and Ongoing peace Process

2 Years of Terror and Ongoing Peace Process

actual point for 2005:2

Quarters

Yearly GDP per capita in thousands of 1995 USD

Real GDP Per Capita of Israel Under Various Scenarios (Average)

Average

0.020215750.020215750.020215750.020215750.020215750.02021575

0.01442450.01442450.01442450.01442450.01442450.0144245

0.018420.018420.018420.018420.018420.01842

0.02286650.02286650.02286650.02286650.02286650.0228665

-0.01198-0.01198-0.01198-0.01198-0.01198-0.01198

0.00030250.00030250.00030250.00030250.00030250.0003025

-0.00850875-0.00850875-0.00850875-0.00850875-0.00850875-0.00850875

-0.0028845-0.0028845-0.0028845-0.0028845-0.0028845-0.0028845

-0.0046625-0.0046625-0.0046625-0.0046625-0.0046625-0.0046625

0.01010450.01010450.01010450.01010450.01010450.0101045

0.03721250.03721250.03721250.03721250.03721250.0372125

0.00284150.00284150.00284150.00284150.00284150.0028415

0.002051250.002051250.002051250.002051250.002051250.00205125

-0.0260734775-0.0260734775-0.0260734775-0.0260734775-0.0260734775-0.0260734775

-0.04622195-0.04622195-0.04622195-0.04622195-0.04622195-0.04622195

-0.06440575-0.06440575-0.06440575-0.06440575-0.06440575-0.06440575

-0.0679405-0.0679405-0.0679405-0.0679405-0.0679405-0.0679405

-0.06772975-0.06772975-0.06772975-0.06772975-0.06772975-0.06772975

-0.084808-0.084808-0.084808-0.084808-0.084808-0.084808

-0.0781405-0.0781405-0.0781405-0.0781405-0.0781405-0.0781405

-0.08417925-0.08417925-0.08417925-0.08417925-0.08417925-0.08417925

-0.09140075-0.09140075-0.09140075-0.09140075-0.09140075-0.09140075

-0.081677-0.081677-0.081677-0.081677-0.081677-0.081677

-0.0859545315-0.0859545315-0.0859545315-0.0627545315-0.0627545315-0.0627545315

-0.0758123233-0.0899351622-0.0899351622-0.0628018233-0.0769246622-0.0769246622

-0.0668718763-0.0934327995-0.0934327995-0.0426788702-0.0692397935-0.0692397935

-0.0589901651-0.0965064689-0.0965064689-0.0249919201-0.0625082239-0.0625082239

-0.0520412647-0.0992079297-0.0992079297-0.0094441443-0.0566108093-0.0566108093

-0.0459142955-0.0874597379-0.10158257680.0042248756-0.0373205668-0.0514434057

-0.0405116178-0.0771093048-0.10367022810.0162436437-0.0203540433-0.0469149666

-0.035747243-0.0679895116-0.10550581530.0268126876-0.005429581-0.0429458847

Second Intifada

Prediction







Quarters

Percentages

The Output Loss of Israel Realtive to its Counterfactual Under Various Scenarios (Average)

DB84UC(C4)

-0.016434-0.016434-0.016434-0.016434-0.016434-0.016434

-0.019781-0.019781-0.019781-0.019781-0.019781-0.019781

-0.015443-0.015443-0.015443-0.015443-0.015443-0.015443

-0.012653-0.012653-0.012653-0.012653-0.012653-0.012653

-0.050866-0.050866-0.050866-0.050866-0.050866-0.050866

-0.039779-0.039779-0.039779-0.039779-0.039779-0.039779

-0.05094-0.05094-0.05094-0.05094-0.05094-0.05094

-0.047131-0.047131-0.047131-0.047131-0.047131-0.047131

-0.050574-0.050574-0.050574-0.050574-0.050574-0.050574

-0.035203-0.035203-0.035203-0.035203-0.035203-0.035203

-0.010798-0.010798-0.010798-0.010798-0.010798-0.010798

-0.044817-0.044817-0.044817-0.044817-0.044817-0.044817

-0.044563-0.044563-0.044563-0.044563-0.044563-0.044563

-0.07303-0.07303-0.07303-0.07303-0.07303-0.07303

-0.093187-0.093187-0.093187-0.093187-0.093187-0.093187

-0.1121-0.1121-0.1121-0.1121-0.1121-0.1121

-0.11719-0.11719-0.11719-0.11719-0.11719-0.11719

-0.11829-0.11829-0.11829-0.11829-0.11829-0.11829

-0.13439-0.13439-0.13439-0.13439-0.13439-0.13439

-0.12885-0.12885-0.12885-0.12885-0.12885-0.12885

-0.1347-0.1347-0.1347-0.1347-0.1347-0.1347

-0.14105-0.14105-0.14105-0.14105-0.14105-0.14105

-0.13098-0.13098-0.13098-0.13098-0.13098-0.13098

-0.1346448233-0.1346448233-0.1346448233-0.1119448233-0.1119448233-0.1119448233

-0.1195107452-0.1381929258-0.1381929258-0.1096622252-0.1283444058-0.1283444058

-0.1060777374-0.1413422216-0.1413422216-0.0897361911-0.1250006753-0.1250006753

-0.0941545997-0.1441375365-0.1441375365-0.0720498432-0.12203278-0.12203278

-0.0835716227-0.1466186581-0.1466186581-0.0563514408-0.1193984762-0.1193984762

-0.0741781723-0.1301387209-0.1488209016-0.0424175389-0.0983780875-0.1170602681

-0.0658405458-0.1155111287-0.1507756129-0.0300498075-0.0797203904-0.1149848746

-0.0584400684-0.1025276778-0.1525106146-0.0190722091-0.0631598185-0.1131427554

Second Intifada

Prediction







Quarters

Percentages

The Output Loss of Israel Realtive to its Counterfactual Under Various Scenarios (DB84 Unconstrained)

DB84C(C3)

0.0586670.0586670.0586670.0586670.0586670.058667

0.0523310.0523310.0523310.0523310.0523310.052331

0.0551930.0551930.0551930.0551930.0551930.055193

0.06290.06290.06290.06290.06290.0629

0.0303640.0303640.0303640.0303640.0303640.030364

0.0451540.0451540.0451540.0451540.0451540.045154

0.0393590.0393590.0393590.0393590.0393590.039359

0.0460780.0460780.0460780.0460780.0460780.046078

0.0460120.0460120.0460120.0460120.0460120.046012

0.0606930.0606930.0606930.0606930.0606930.060693

0.0891070.0891070.0891070.0891070.0891070.089107

0.0543680.0543680.0543680.0543680.0543680.054368

0.0534430.0534430.0534430.0534430.0534430.053443

0.0253710.0253710.0253710.0253710.0253710.025371

0.00602820.00602820.00602820.00602820.00602820.0060282

-0.011175-0.011175-0.011175-0.011175-0.011175-0.011175

-0.013206-0.013206-0.013206-0.013206-0.013206-0.013206

-0.010724-0.010724-0.010724-0.010724-0.010724-0.010724

-0.028828-0.028828-0.028828-0.028828-0.028828-0.028828

-0.020208-0.020208-0.020208-0.020208-0.020208-0.020208

-0.026435-0.026435-0.026435-0.026435-0.026435-0.026435

-0.033458-0.033458-0.033458-0.033458-0.033458-0.033458

-0.023481-0.023481-0.023481-0.023481-0.023481-0.023481

-0.0286101976-0.0286101976-0.0286101976-0.0046101976-0.0046101976-0.0046101976

-0.0247249328-0.0331763954-0.0331763954-0.0089841328-0.0174355954-0.0174355954

-0.0213672869-0.0371225036-0.03712250360.0109359125-0.0048193043-0.0048193043

-0.0184656093-0.0405327303-0.04053273030.02815081560.00608369460.0060836946

-0.0159579796-0.0434798482-0.04347984820.04302793480.01550606620.0155060662

-0.013790886-0.0375752848-0.04602674750.05588474130.03210034240.0236488797

-0.0119180836-0.0324725611-0.04822777790.06699559340.04644111590.0306858992

-0.0102996079-0.0280627873-0.05012990830.07659759180.05883441240.0367672914

Second Intifada

Prediction







Quarters

Percentages

The Output Loss of Israel Realtive to its Counterfactual Under Various Scenarios (DB84 Constrained)

DB80UC(C2)

-0.011821-0.011821-0.011821-0.011821-0.011821-0.011821

-0.021261-0.021261-0.021261-0.021261-0.021261-0.021261

-0.015434-0.015434-0.015434-0.015434-0.015434-0.015434

-0.009958-0.009958-0.009958-0.009958-0.009958-0.009958

-0.043337-0.043337-0.043337-0.043337-0.043337-0.043337

-0.029503-0.029503-0.029503-0.029503-0.029503-0.029503

-0.039431-0.039431-0.039431-0.039431-0.039431-0.039431

-0.032747-0.032747-0.032747-0.032747-0.032747-0.032747

-0.034457-0.034457-0.034457-0.034457-0.034457-0.034457

-0.018103-0.018103-0.018103-0.018103-0.018103-0.018103

0.0106070.0106070.0106070.0106070.0106070.010607

-0.025695-0.025695-0.025695-0.025695-0.025695-0.025695

-0.027777-0.027777-0.027777-0.027777-0.027777-0.027777

-0.055746-0.055746-0.055746-0.055746-0.055746-0.055746

-0.075498-0.075498-0.075498-0.075498-0.075498-0.075498

-0.093451-0.093451-0.093451-0.093451-0.093451-0.093451

-0.094952-0.094952-0.094952-0.094952-0.094952-0.094952

-0.096053-0.096053-0.096053-0.096053-0.096053-0.096053

-0.11187-0.11187-0.11187-0.11187-0.11187-0.11187

-0.10542-0.10542-0.10542-0.10542-0.10542-0.10542

-0.10996-0.10996-0.10996-0.10996-0.10996-0.10996

-0.11851-0.11851-0.11851-0.11851-0.11851-0.11851

-0.10927-0.10927-0.10927-0.10927-0.10927-0.10927

-0.1127941399-0.1127941399-0.1127941399-0.0883941399-0.0883941399-0.0883941399

-0.0988076666-0.1161554058-0.1161554058-0.0848332666-0.1021810058-0.1021810058

-0.0865555159-0.1190998746-0.1190998746-0.0636139415-0.0961583002-0.0961583002

-0.0758226319-0.1216792293-0.1216792293-0.0450258128-0.0908824102-0.0908824102

-0.0664206256-0.1239387441-0.1239387441-0.028742612-0.0862607305-0.0862607305

-0.058184468-0.1085703398-0.125918079-0.0144785281-0.0648643999-0.0822121391

-0.050969594-0.0951076177-0.1276519764-0.0019831906-0.0461212143-0.078665573

-0.0446493643-0.0833142731-0.12917087050.008962725-0.0297021837-0.0755587811

Second Intifada

Prediction







Quarters

Percentages

The Output Loss of Israel Realtive to its Counterfactual Under Various Scenarios (DB80 Unconstrained)

DB80C(C1)

0.0504510.0504510.0504510.0504510.0504510.050451

0.0464090.0464090.0464090.0464090.0464090.046409

0.0493640.0493640.0493640.0493640.0493640.049364

0.0511770.0511770.0511770.0511770.0511770.051177

0.0159190.0159190.0159190.0159190.0159190.015919

0.0253380.0253380.0253380.0253380.0253380.025338

0.0169770.0169770.0169770.0169770.0169770.016977

0.0222620.0222620.0222620.0222620.0222620.022262

0.0203690.0203690.0203690.0203690.0203690.020369

0.0330310.0330310.0330310.0330310.0330310.033031

0.0599340.0599340.0599340.0599340.0599340.059934

0.027510.027510.027510.027510.027510.02751

0.0271020.0271020.0271020.0271020.0271020.027102

-0.00088891-0.00088891-0.00088891-0.00088891-0.00088891-0.00088891

-0.022231-0.022231-0.022231-0.022231-0.022231-0.022231

-0.040897-0.040897-0.040897-0.040897-0.040897-0.040897

-0.046414-0.046414-0.046414-0.046414-0.046414-0.046414

-0.045852-0.045852-0.045852-0.045852-0.045852-0.045852

-0.064144-0.064144-0.064144-0.064144-0.064144-0.064144

-0.058084-0.058084-0.058084-0.058084-0.058084-0.058084

-0.065622-0.065622-0.065622-0.065622-0.065622-0.065622

-0.072585-0.072585-0.072585-0.072585-0.072585-0.072585

-0.062977-0.062977-0.062977-0.062977-0.062977-0.062977

-0.0677689652-0.0677689652-0.0677689652-0.0460689652-0.0460689652-0.0460689652

-0.0602059487-0.072215922-0.072215922-0.0477276687-0.059737642-0.059737642

-0.0534869648-0.0761665984-0.0761665984-0.0283012609-0.0509808944-0.0509808944

-0.0475178195-0.0796763793-0.0796763793-0.0110428402-0.0432013999-0.0432013999

-0.0422148309-0.0827944686-0.08279446860.0042895408-0.0362900969-0.0362900969

-0.0375036558-0.0735546059-0.08556457920.0179108281-0.0181401221-0.0301500954

-0.0333182478-0.0653459119-0.08802554540.0300119796-0.0020156845-0.024695318

-0.0295999313-0.0580533081-0.09021186780.04076264270.0123092659-0.0198492938

Second Intifada

Prediction







Quarters

Percentages

The Output Loss of Israel Realtive to its Counterfactual Under Various Scenarios (DB80 Constrained)

Predictions

YEARQUARTERACTUAL_ISRAELNO TERRORONE YEAR TERRORTWO YEARS TERRORNO PEACE PROCESSPEACE PROCESSD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC averageD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC averageD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC averageD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC averageD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC averageD80CPD80CD80UCPD80UCD84CPD84CD84UCPD84UCAverageGDPPC average

199811.43784.21142049280.51082562380.51082562380.5108256238000.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.84568197120.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.84568197120.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.84568197120.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.84568197120.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.84568197120.0504511.38731.38734.00402457880.00021.43784.2114204928-0.0118211.44961.44964.26140961040.00561.43784.21142049280.0586671.37911.37913.97132582540.00251.43784.2114204928-0.0164341.45421.45424.2810572495-0.00051.43784.21142049280.0202157516.8456819712

199821.43394.19502793910.51082562380.51082562380.5108256238000.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.78011175650.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.78011175650.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.78011175650.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.78011175650.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.78011175650.0464091.38751.38754.00482546380.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0212611.45521.45524.2853404480.0031.43394.19502793910.0523311.38161.38163.98126656070.00591.43394.1950279391-0.0197811.45371.45374.27891725590.00451.43394.19502793910.014424516.7801117565

199831.44274.2321070941.89711998491.89711998491.8971199849000.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.9284283760.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.9284283760.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.9284283760.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.9284283760.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.9284283760.0493641.39341.39344.02852377530.00771.44274.232107094-0.0154341.45821.45824.29821577270.00411.44274.2321070940.0551931.38751.38754.00482546380.00191.44274.232107094-0.0154431.45821.45824.29821577270.00681.44274.2321070940.0184216.928428376

199841.45234.27293096313.367295833.367295833.36729583110.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.09172385260.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.09172385260.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.09172385260.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.09172385260.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.09172385260.0511771.40111.40114.05966314110.00831.45234.2729309631-0.0099581.46231.46234.31587463330.00631.45234.27293096310.06291.38941.38944.01244186550.00551.45234.2729309631-0.0126531.4651.4654.32754324030.01121.45234.27293096310.022866517.0917238526

199911.42534.1591053872000110.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.63642154890.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.63642154890.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.63642154890.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.63642154890.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.63642154890.0159191.40941.40944.0934985680.00961.42534.1591053872-0.0433371.46861.46864.34315047210.00521.42534.15910538720.0303641.39491.39494.03457109530.00431.42534.1591053872-0.0508661.47621.47624.37628416430.00791.42534.1591053872-0.0119816.6364215489

199921.44434.2388838853000110.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.95553554130.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.95553554130.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.95553554130.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.95553554130.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.95553554130.0253381.4191.4194.13298538770.00821.44434.2388838853-0.0295031.47381.47384.36579367590.00981.44434.23888388530.0451541.39921.39924.05195710420.00561.44434.2388838853-0.0397791.48411.48414.41099373140.0111.44434.23888388530.000302516.9555355413

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200221.43454.19754571125.32463467495.32463467495.324634674900-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446-0.0458521.48041.48044.39470321070.00271.43454.1975457112-0.0960531.53061.53064.62094855980.00021.43454.1975457112-0.0107241.44521.44524.24270059810.00261.43454.1975457112-0.118291.55281.55284.72468078530.00061.43454.1975457112-0.0677297516.7901828446

200231.4194.13298538774.5468346094.5468346094.54683460900-0.0641441.48311.48314.40658494250.00261.4194.1329853877-0.111871.53081.53084.6218728420.00231.4194.1329853877-0.0288281.44781.44784.25374597240.00011.4194.1329853877-0.134391.55341.55344.72751644440.00311.4194.1329853877-0.08480816.5319415507-0.0641441.48311.48314.40658494250.00261.4194.1329853877-0.111871.53081.53084.6218728420.00231.4194.1329853877-0.0288281.44781.44784.25374597240.00011.4194.1329853877-0.134391.55341.55344.72751644440.00311.4194.1329853877-0.08480816.5319415507-0.0641441.48311.48314.4065849

counterfactual analysis of terrorism effects on the economy: the case of israel

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