could anders behring breivik have been stopped with social ... · security and openness post july...
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Could Anders Behring Breivik have been stopped with social media monitoring?
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VOXPol - Ethics and Politics of Online Monitoring of Violent Extremism
Brussels January 19, 2015
Dr. Robindra Prabhu
Norwegian Board of Technology
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! Security and openness post July 22, 2011
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Kilde: N. Andersen, Wikipedia (CC0)
• Public debate on internet surveillance after July 22, 2011
• “Open” policing:
• Social media surveillance
• Predictive policing
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“Our answer to violence is more openness, more democracy…but we will not be naïve.”
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
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“Our answer to violence is more openness, more democracy…but we will not be naïve.”
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
Anonymity online?
http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kommentarer/Farvel_-anonymitet-7363457.html
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“Our answer to violence is more openness, more democracy…but we will not be naïve.”
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
Internet trolls?
http://www.dubestemmer.no/content/trollus-netticus
Anonymity online?
http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kommentarer/Farvel_-anonymitet-7363457.html
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“Our answer to violence is more openness, more democracy…but we will not be naïve.”
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
Internet trolls?
http://www.dubestemmer.no/content/trollus-netticus
Anonymity online?
http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kommentarer/Farvel_-anonymitet-7363457.html
Internet surveillance?
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/terrorangrepet-22-juli-politiet-og-beredskapen/pst-ikke-lov-aa-overvaake-ytringer-i-norge/a/10097709/
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Could Anders Behring Breivik been stopped through tighter monitoring of his online activities?
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Could Anders Behring Breivik been stopped through tighter monitoring of his online activities?
«Police securityservice in Norway» av Hans-Petter Fjeld - Eget verk. Lisensiert under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Police_securityservice_in_Norway.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Police_securityservice_in_Norway.jpg
NO
Norwegian Police Security Service
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Could Anders Behring Breivik been stopped through tighter monitoring of his online activities?
…probably not
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Jakob Asland Ravndalhttp://voxpol.eu/the-online-life-of-a-modern-terrorist-anders-behring-breiviks-use-of-the-internet/
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Jakob Asland Ravndalhttp://voxpol.eu/the-online-life-of-a-modern-terrorist-anders-behring-breiviks-use-of-the-internet/
! …never discussed his terrorist plans online
! …critical views on Islam and socialism where established long before counterjihad blogs were created
! …only turned to violence after having been rejected by people he admired and wanted to work with
! …prolonged withdrawal from family and friends (year off to play computer games) may have influenced radicalisation
! …Internet gave him knowledge and ingredients to carry out attacks, but not necessarily the idea to attack
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! State of limbo…
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Poorly adapted to the internet age:
• Should have prioritised internet-based OSINT to a much larger extent
• Should not “hold back” on the monitoring of extremist internet websites for fear of being criticised for political surveillance
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! PST: stuck between a rock and hard place?
Terror attacks of July 22 and commission report
Snowden revelations
Rock Hard place
! Proposal: collect & store “big data” for the purposes of aggregate analysis with aim to identify trends and future challenges
! not drill down to the level of individuals
! proposal instantly shot down by both sides of the political divide
http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/PST-om-nettovervaking-Vi-onsker-a-snu-opp-ned-pa-hvordan-vi-jobber-7677526.html
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Where do we go from here?
…let’s start with “open” policing
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Police stations in Norway have had great success
using social media as an effective information channel to the public
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! …but can social media be used as an information channel to the police?
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14Analysis of the entire Twitter-feed on July 22, 2011
Real-time information from the scene
Alarm
Different events come to eye
Continous feed as it happens
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I think the police should monitor words like “shooting”, “explosion” and “fighting” on open social medias platforms like Twitter in order to discover new events.
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I think the police should monitor words like “shooting”, “explosion” and “fighting” on open social medias platforms like Twitter in order to discover new events.
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I think the police should monitor words like “shooting”, “explosion” and “fighting” on open social medias platforms like Twitter in order to discover new events.
If I knew that the police was monitoring certain words and expressions on social media, I would avoid using these words.
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I think the police should monitor words like “shooting”, “explosion” and “fighting” on open social medias platforms like Twitter in order to discover new events.
If I knew that the police was monitoring certain words and expressions on social media, I would avoid using these words.
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! Open vs closed spaces online! Does technically open mean that it is public?
! much of what we say is neither strictly private, nor strictly public
! What is public? ! The picture of latté art shared on social media or the
metadata attached to it with location and time stamp?
! Technically open is a moving target ! Who has the defining power in what “public” means?
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! Key recommendations
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Use only open information - and be clear about what you consider to be “open”
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! Key recommendations
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Use only open information - and be clear about what you consider to be “open”
1
Use only aggregate data for situational awareness - do not drill down to identify
individuals unless you are in an investigation
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! Key recommendations
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Use only open information - and be clear about what you consider to be “open”
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Use only aggregate data for situational awareness - do not drill down to identify
individuals unless you are in an investigation
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build in privacy preserving features from the start, eg. facial blurring
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! Key recommendations
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Computer algorithms predicting the when, where and who of the next crime…
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! From “hotspots” to “heat lists”
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“Through data analysis, Chicago police
have identified more than 400 people they believe are most likely to
drive up violent crime - as perpetrators or as victims -
and are warning them”
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! From “hotspots” to “heat lists”
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Homicide victims
Predictive analysis of social network around homicide victims inside hotspots
Potential future perpetrators / future victims
http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/December-2013/The-Small-Social-Networks-at-the-Heart-of-Chicago-Violence/
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…but how do we deal with the discomfort of whom to survey more closely when the technology allows for more granular risk assessments?
Selective attention is not new to policing…
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Threshold problem
Framing problem
Data conundrum
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Resource allocation with “surgical precision”
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…but reasonable cause for suspicion?
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Threshold problem
Framing problem
Data conundrum
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Data-driven analysis curbs personal prejudice
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…or guilty by association?
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Resource allocation with “surgical precision”
1
…but reasonable cause for suspicion?
1
Threshold problem
Framing problem
Data conundrum
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Data-driven analysis curbs personal prejudice
2
…or guilty by association?
2
Are you at risk…
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…or a risk?
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Resource allocation with “surgical precision”
1
…but reasonable cause for suspicion?
1
Threshold problem
Framing problem
Data conundrum