Cost and potential of renewable

energy in the Alps while protecting

ecosystems services

Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2),

Hernán Serrano León(1), Giulia Geregnani(3),

Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika Marxen(4,5),

Chris Walzer(6)

(1) Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

(2) Luleå University of Technology, Sweden

(3) EURAC - European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano, Italy

(4) Working Group on Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator

Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany

(5) Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany

(6) Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria

Swedish Association for Energy Economics Conference 2016

Luleå, Sweden, 23 August 2016

Outline

• Background

• Objective

• Methodology

• Results

• Online-tool

• Conclusion

2

Background

3

• Renewable energy (RE): EU climate change policy (2009/28/EC), nuclear phase-out

• Alpine Convention’s Energy Protocol: Alpine region to make a long-term contribution to

meeting Europe’s energy needs (EC 2005, p. 37)

• Concern: ESS often compete with RE for productive sites important tradeoffs to be

analyzed to maintain ES functions and services under increasing RE demand and other

pressures.

• Contributions:

Detailed spatial analysis of renewable energy solutions and tradeoffs in in multifunctional

landscapes

Quantification and visualization of ecological-economic tradeoffs without making assumptions on

weights and preferences and judgments about valuation

Support decision-makers in forming strategies offering robustness across uncertainties

Objective

To identify

the potential and cost of production

of renewable energy (RE) in the Alps

in regards with the protection

of the ecosystems services (ESS)

4

5

Forest resources

Crop residuals

Algae

MSW

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Biofuel

Heat

Power

Power to liquid/gas

Biogas

Fertilizers

Biochar

Co-firing

Ecosystem services

BECCS Geothermal

The BeWhere Umbrella

BeWhere Model

6

Reference

system

Demand

New bioenergy

plants

Existing

industries

Biomass

Heat

& power

Transport fuel

Fossil fuel

Forest

industries

Biomass

import

Sawmill

residuals

Domestic

biomass

Biofuel

Import

CHP

Optional flows

Existing flows

Input Data

• Distribution

– Road, train network

– Power lines

– Power stations

• Costs and emissions

– Transport

– Distribution

– Plant setup and OM

• Production sites

– Existing infrastructure

– Techno-economic param.

• Fossil fuel

– Power/heat price

– Fossil fuel use

• Protected areas

BeWhere answers…

(1)Number

(2)Technologies

(3)Size

(4)Locations

31/08/2016 8

Costs

Emission avoided

Direct emissions

Economic potential

Trades

Policy tool

• G4M estimates the impact of forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km2 total area, 115,000 km2 forest).

• Forests managed to maximize two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period:

S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests.

S2: Maximization of biomass production.

tC/ha

Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas

1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock)

2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tC/ha

Source: G4M www.iiasa.ac.at/g4m

S1: Carbon

sequestration

S2: Biomass

production

Harvest potential

Mt C /year

11 23

Carbon stock

Mt C

1,057

577

Source: BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/Bewhere

S2: Biomass production scenario (increment)

Economic bioenergy potential

BeWhere estimates the optimal allocation of bioenergy production plants and associated harvesting intensity.

• Bioenergy is competing with other energy production types (i.e. costs of fossil fuels).

• Economic supply: 14 TWh (heat & electricity) met by both scenarios.

• Significant local difference of harvesting intensity.

S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment)

Harvesting

intensity/cell

(1,000 m3/ yr)

Total

harvested

amount in S1:

(1,000 m3/ yr)

Total

harvested

amount in S2:

(1,000 m3/ yr)

0 – 12 208 88

13 – 32 1,098 498

33 – 60 2,820 1,341

61 – 87 1,851 1,194

88 – 141 478 3,290

1,000 m3 tC/ha

tC/ha 1,000 m3

National Park

Legend

National Park

DESIGN_ENG

National Park

National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion

National Park - Core Area

National Park - Integrale Reserve

Swiss National Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

National Park

DESIGN_ENG

National Park

National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion

National Park - Core Area

National Park - Integrale Reserve

Swiss National Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

National Park

DESIGN_ENG

National Park

National Park - Core Area

National Park - Integrale Reserve

National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion

Swiss National Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Nature Reserve

Legend

Nature Reserve

DESIGN_ENG

National Nature Reserve

State Nature Reserve

Nature Reserve

Natural reserve

Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve

Regional Nature Reserve

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

Nature Reserve

DESIGN_ENG

National Nature Reserve

State Nature Reserve

Nature Reserve

Natural reserve

Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve

Regional Nature Reserve

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

National Park

DESIGN_ENG

National Park

National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion

National Park - Core Area

National Park - Integrale Reserve

Swiss National Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Natural Park

Legend

Natural Park

DESIGN_ENG

Nature Park

Regional Nature Park

Regional/Provincial Nature Park

Regional Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

Natural Park

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Particular Protection

Legend

Particular Protection

DESIGN_ENG

Biosphere Park

Biosphere reserves

Biotope Protection Order

Dry Grasslands

Ecological Important Area

Emerald Sites

Federal Hunting Reserves

Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*

Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *

Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *

Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*

Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*

Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *

Fenlands of National Importance

Flora Protection Area

Forest Biological Reserve

Forest Reserve

Horticultural Monument

Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*

Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*

Landscape Park

Landscape Protection Area

Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*

Mire Landscapes of National Importance

National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve

Natural Monument

Natural Monument or Site

Other Protected Natural Regional Areas

Particular protection

Protected Area

Protected Forest

Protected Habitat

Protected Landscape Section

Protected Natural Objects of local importance

Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*

Rest Area

Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*

Specialy Protected Area

regional protected areas

special conservation areas

townscape protected area

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Particular Protection

Legend

Particular Protection

DESIGN_ENG

Biosphere Park

Biosphere reserves

Biotope Protection Order

Dry Grasslands

Ecological Important Area

Emerald Sites

Federal Hunting Reserves

Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*

Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *

Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *

Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*

Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*

Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *

Fenlands of National Importance

Flora Protection Area

Forest Biological Reserve

Forest Reserve

Horticultural Monument

Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*

Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*

Landscape Park

Landscape Protection Area

Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*

Mire Landscapes of National Importance

National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve

Natural Monument

Natural Monument or Site

Other Protected Natural Regional Areas

Particular protection

Protected Area

Protected Forest

Protected Habitat

Protected Landscape Section

Protected Natural Objects of local importance

Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*

Rest Area

Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*

Specialy Protected Area

regional protected areas

special conservation areas

townscape protected area

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

Particular Protection

DESIGN_ENG

Biosphere Park

Biosphere reserves

Biotope Protection Order

Dry Grasslands

Ecological Important Area

Emerald Sites

Federal Hunting Reserves

Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*

Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *

Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *

Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*

Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*

Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *

Fenlands of National Importance

Flora Protection Area

Forest Biological Reserve

Forest Reserve

Horticultural Monument

Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*

Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*

Landscape Park

Landscape Protection Area

Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*

Mire Landscapes of National Importance

National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve

Natural Monument

Natural Monument or Site

Other Protected Natural Regional Areas

Particular protection

Protected Area

Protected Forest

Protected Habitat

Protected Landscape Section

Protected Natural Objects of local importance

Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*

Rest Area

Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*

Specialy Protected Area

regional protected areas

special conservation areas

townscape protected area

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Natura 2000

Legend

Natura 2000

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Natura 2000

UNESCO Protection

Legend

UNESCO WH + BR

iucn_prote

UNESCO Biosphere Reserve

UNESCO World Heritage

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

UNESCO Protection

IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Ia – Strict Nature Reserve

Ib – Wilderness Area

II – National Park

III – Natural Monument or Feature

IV – Habitat/Species Management Area

V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable

Use of Natural Resources

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

19

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Ia – Strict Nature Reserve

Ib – Wilderness Area

II – National Park

III – Natural Monument or Feature

IV – Habitat/Species Management Area

V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable

Use of Natural Resources

Legend

National Protection Designation

IUCN Categories

Ia

Ib

II

III

IV

VI

V

UA

NA

Alps Convention

EU27

Legend

UNESCO WH + BR

iucn_prote

UNESCO Biosphere Reserve

UNESCO World Heritage

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

Legend

Natura 2000

Alps Convention

EU27

Croatia

IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature

Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World

Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC.

20

Harmonized Protected Areas

Scenario 1 –

General protection

level

Legend

Prot_scenarios_class

Sc1_medium

0

30

50

100

Production restrictions

High protection

Medium protection

Low protection

Solar & Wind

Solar Wind

Source: Garegnani et al. Evaluation of wind, solar and hydro energy potential using GRASS, FOSS4G-Europe 2015, July 14th - 17th 2015, Como.

Theoretical Potential

Solar potential Wind potential

Theoretical Potential by

Catchment

Existing Hydropower

Station

Source: Carma

Own calculation

Remaining Potential (1)

Remaining Potential (1)

Reduced Potential (2)

Reduced Potential (2)

Reduced Potential Breakdown

Marginal protection cost

30

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Ab

atm

ent

cost

ch

ang

e

Protection level

JECAMI

http://www.jecami.eu/

31

• Forests provide a number of essential ecosystem services

and the full range of implication of changes in management

needs to be considered.

• The pros and cons of RE production have to be weighted

against each other in an integrated and systematic manner

while considering trade-offs with ecosystem services (e.g.,

carbon sequestration or biodiversity).

Summary and Outlook

Thank you!

More information on IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at

More on BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere

Contact Sylvain Leduc, leduc@iiasa.ac.at

33