cost 724:developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting space weather

COST 724:Developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting Space Weather COST 724:Developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting Space Weather

COST 724:Developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting Space Weather


What was pre-existing ?

A strong organization in the US: NOAA, Militaries, Space Environment Center… A Space weather weekA journal (AGU)



A lot of national initiatives:

IPS in Autralia, SIDC in Belgium, Lund space weather center in Sweden, World radiation center in Switzerland, aso…



Many international programs : The International GNSS Service (IGS), magnetic programs (Intermagnet…), The International Space Environment Service (ISES / URSI) aso…



ESA trying to find its way through in Europe but always at the origin of initiativesThe Space Weather Working Team (M. Hapgood)


COST 724 was an initiative from SWWT

Its goals ?

The main objective of the Action is to develop further within a European framework the science underpinning space weather applications, as well as exploring methods for providing a comprehensive range of space weather services to a variety of users, based on modelling and monitoring of the Sun-Earth system.


www.cost724.eu

Nov. 2003 – Nov. 2007

Total budget: 500 k€ over 4 years


28 countries Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and United Kingdom.

ESA and the COST action 296 were associated with us.


Quantitative achievements:


Solar Event Forecasting via Artificial Neural NetworkSolar Event Forecasting via Artificial Neural Network

Y. Tulunay et al., 2007

typical

event

Outcome and achievements: WG1 Monitoring and predicting solar activity

Performance measure (relative error): 30%


Retrieving the solar EUV flux from 6 linesRetrieving the solar EUV flux from 6 lines

Dudok de Witt et al., 2006

Outcome and achievements: WG1 Monitoring and predicting solar activity

The Solar EUV flux is the main source for the Earth diurnal ionosphereFirst model developped through COST 724 to retrieve it from a set of linesOperational tool for space weather


Human activity can perturb Earth's environment

Outcome and achievements: WG2 The radiation environment of the Earth

-150.00 -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00

31.03 1992

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4-14 M Hz

6.04.1992

The Earth ionosphere undergoes various man-made influences: broadcasting transmitters, power station, power line and heavy industrial. The observed broad band emissions are superposition of natural plasma emissions and man-made noises.Pumping the electromagnetic waves from ground to the ionosphere and penetration of energetic particles from radiation belts can in consequence disturb top-side ionosphere. The scattering of super-thermal electrons on ion-acoustic or Langmuir turbulence is proposed as a mechanism of generation broad-band HF emissions.

Rotkaehl et al., 2005


1

10

100

1000

10 100 1000

h (g/cm2)

Ion.

rat

e (c

m3 s

ec a

tm)-1

Neher, 1971

Rosen et al., 1985

Lowder, 1972

Bern model

Oulu model

Cosmic ray model: 1st intercomparison

Toward a European network of CR modelers

Data base created and now operational for users.



Russia-RSA NASA - USA Europe-ESA

Effective dose

Career limits

M F

1.0 1.0

M F 25y 0.7 0.4 35y 1.0 0.6 45y 1.5 0.9 55y 2.9 1.6

M F

1.0 1.0

BFO (5 cm depth)

Single acute 30 days 1 year

0.15 0.25 0.5

- 0.25 0.50

- 0.25 0.5

Ocular lens (0.3 cm depth)

Single acute 30 days 1 year Career limit

- 0.5 1.0 2.0

- 1.0 2.0 4.0

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Skin (0.01 cm depth)

Single acute 30 days 1 year Career limit

- 1.5 3.0 6.0

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- 1.5 3.0 -

First Exposure limits in Space and/or on the Earth studyFirst Exposure limits in Space and/or on the Earth study

Study of the distribution of earth radiation environment Global map of effective dose obtainedFirst exhaustive study of spacecraft failures

Spurny and Dachev, 2007. McKenna-Lawlor, 2007, Desorgher et al., 2007



SOLPENCO (SOLar Particle ENgineering COde)

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most severe hazards of the solar induced space weather phenomena. SEP events are highly random in nature and can lead to large radiation doses Example of an MHD simulation of an IP shock (CM SEP event)

Outcome and achievements: WG3 solar wind disturbances / Earth

Sun

CMShock

CM

Sanahuja et al., 2007


Geomagnetically Induced Currents – GIC

GIC is a potentially damaging effect of bad space weather on technological systems. Modeling and forecasting GIC is an application of space weather research. Three GIC servers were developed during the lifetime of COST 724 and are now in operation. They provide real-time information on geomagnetic activity and nowcast resp. forecast estimates of GIC in power systems (SE, UK) and in a pipeline (FI).


A.Viljanen, A. Thomson, H. Lundstedt, R. Pirjola


Model Parameter Lead time Physics

SEC-STORM foF2 0 hours -

RWC-Sweden RMS dB/dt 30 minSolar wind

advection L1-Earth

GIFINT AE 1 hourSolar wind

advection L1-Earth

RWC-Swe, GIFINT, LASP

Dst 1–2 hours L1 + ring current

RWC-Swe, SEC, UPOS

Kp 0–6 hoursL1 + mag.sph. +

statistics

RWC-Canada Pseudo K 24 hours Statistics

STIF foF2 24 hours Statistics

LASP>2 MeV el.

flux2 days Radial diffusion of el.

GIFS, SEC Ap 3 days Statistics

SEC>2 MeV el.

flux3-8 days

3d: Radial difff. + statistics?

8d: + solar wind model

SEC Ap 27 days Solar rotation + static

models for predicting geomagnetic indices and parameters

Boldface: models developed by COST 724 members


C. Cid, E. Amata, E. Saiz, G. Pallocchia, Y. Cerrato, G. Consolini


The annual European Space Weather Week with ESAA space weather school (UNESCO – NSF - ICTP)Publications (+ 2 special issues of Annales Geoph., 1 Acta Geoph, 1 Sp. Sc. Rev., 2 books), more than 350 review papersSpace weather web portal : www.spaceweather.eu with strong collaboration with ESA and BISA

Outcome and achievements: WG4 Space Weather Observations and Services


Enlarging the community

Contacts with industries: electricity power plans, airplane companies (Virgin), spacecrafts (Alcatel), …Contacts with meteorology (EMS, UK Royal society of Meteorology …)At the origin (or strong participation) to all space weather FP7 projects:

The SOlar – TERestrial Investigation and Archives (SOTERIA) project The SOlar – TERestrial Investigation and Archives (SOTERIA) project (Giovanni Lapenta)(Giovanni Lapenta)

The The real-time database of neutron monitor observationsreal-time database of neutron monitor observations project (R. project (R. Vainio)Vainio)

Space Weather and Europe --- an Education Tool with the Sun (SWEETS) Space Weather and Europe --- an Education Tool with the Sun (SWEETS) is funded since last year and currently active (F. Jansen)is funded since last year and currently active (F. Jansen)

EuroplanetEuroplanet



Lots of outreach activities

Multi-lingual portal!Planeterrella: rebuilding of aurorasClassroom in Turkey, Finland, France …



BulgariaFrance

Israel

Slovenia

Spain


Let me also mention that in the course of the action, 1 company was created and 2 were supported, chaired by our action members.


A strong example : a definition of space weather as a contribution of the COST 724 action to the space weather community


Space weather is the physical and phenomenological state of natural space

environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and

modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect

them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible impacts on biological and

technological systems


In Greek

Διαστημικός καιρός είναι η φυσική και φαινομενολογική κατάσταση του διαστημικού περιβάλλοντος των πλανητών. Το γνωστικό

αντικείμενο που σχετίζεται με τον διαστημικό καιρό έχει σκοπό, μέσα από παρατηρήσεις, επιστημονικές αναλύσεις και μοντελοποιήσεις, την κατανόηση και

πρόγνωση της κατάστασης του ήλιου, του διαπλανητικού περιβάλλοντος και του περιβάλλοντος

των πλανητών, καθώς και των διαταραχών που καθοδηγούνται από τον ήλιο αλλά και από άλλες πηγές

στο διάστημα. Τέλος σκοπός του γνωστικού αντικειμένου είναι η παρακολούθηση και πρόγνωση

των πιθανών επιδράσεων των διαταραχών του διαστημικού καιρού σε βιολογικά και τεχνολογικά

συστήματα.


In Finnish Avaruussäällä tarkoitetaan ympäröivän

avaruuden fysikaalista tilaa. Siihen liittyvä tutkimus ja havainnointi pyrkii

mittausaineistojen analyysin ja teoreettisen mallinnuksen avulla ymmärtämään ja

ennustamaan auringon, planeettojen välisen avaruuden ja planeettaympäristöjen

käyttäytymistä ja tilaa sekä niihin vaikuttavia häiriöitä. Päämääränä on myös selvittää,

havainnoida ja ennustaa avaruussään vaikutuksia teknisille järjestelmille avaruudessa

ja maan pinnalla sekä mahdollisia biologisia vaikutuksia.


In German:Weltraumwetter bezeichnet den

physikalischen und phänomenologischen Zustand des natürlichen Umfeldes im

Weltraum. Durch Beobachtung, Überwachung, Analyse und Modellierung soll der Zustand der Sonne verstanden

bzw. vorhergesagt werden, die planetare/interplanetare Umgebung sowie Störungen auf, diese die solaren und nicht

solaren Ursprungs sind, beschrieben werden; ebenso die Vorhersage und den

möglichen Einfluss auf biologische Systeme.


In German - Austrian:Das Weltraumwetter ist ein physikalischer

und phenomänologischer Zustand der Umwelt in Weltall. Es wird studiert zum besseren Verständnis und Vorhersagen des Sonnenzustands, der interplanetaren und

planetaren Umwelt und untersucht wie von der Sonne und nicht von der Sonne

hervorgerufene Störungen die auf die Umwelt wirken. Auch Vorhersagen und Wissen über den möglichen Einfluss auf

biologische und technologische Systeme sind Teil der Untersuchung.


in Dutch:Ruimteweer is de fysische en

fenomenologische toestand van natuurlijke ruimte-omgevingen. De geassocieerde

discipline heeft als doel, door observatie, metingen, analyse en modellering, de

toestand van de zon, de interplanetaire en planetaire omgevingen, en de solair en

niet-solair aangedreven verstoringen die hierop invloed hebben beter te begrijpen en voorspellen; en ook op korte en lange

termijn de mogelijke impact op biologische en technologische systemen te

voorspellen.


In Bulgarian:Космическо време е физическото и феноменологичното състояние на естествената космическа среда.

Съответната дисциплина цели, чрез наблюдения, анализ и моделиране, да разбере и предскаже състоянието на Слънцето, междупланетната среда и

околопланетните пространства, и смущенията от слънчев и не–слънчев

характер, влияещи върху тях; а също и да установи и предскаже възможните

ефекти върху биологичните и технилогичните системи


In Hungarian: Az űridőjárás a természetes

űrkörnyezetek fizikai és fenomenológiai állapota. A hozzá kapcsolódó diszciplina

célja – megfigyelések, analízis és modellezés segítségével - a Nap, az

interplanetáris és bolygókörnyezetek, valamint az őket befolyásoló szoláris és

nem-szoláris eredetű perturbációk állapotának megértése és előrejelzése,

illetve a biológiai és technológiai rendszerekre való lehetséges hatásuk rövid és hosszabb távú prognózisa.


In Ukrainian

КОСМІЧНА ПОГОДА визначається як фізичний та феноменологічний стан природного

космічного оточення. Метою цього напряму є розуміння та передбачення стану Сонця, міжпланетного простору та планетного оточення, збурень цього середовища, викликаних впливом Сонця або інших джерел, за допомогою спостережень,

моніторингу, аналізу та моделювання, а також визначення фактичного стану і прогнозування можливого впливу на

біологічні та технічні системи.


In Norwegian:

Romvær er den fysiske og fenomenologiske tilstanden av naturlige rommiljøer. Relaterte

emner har, gjennom observasjon, overvåking, analyse og modellering, som mål å forstå og

forutse tilstanden på solen, interplanetariske og planetariske miljøer, og sol- og ikke-soldrevet

pertubasjoner som kan påvirke dem. Man ønsker også å varsle på lang og kort sikt de

mulige konsekvensene for biologiske og teknologiske systemer.


In Turkish: Uzay Havası’nın Tanımı:

Uzay havası, doğal uzay çevrelerinin fiziksel ve görüngüsel (phenomenological)

durumudur. Buna ilişkin dalın amaçları, gözlemleme, izleme, çözümleme ve

benzekleme (modeling) yoluyla, güneşin, gezegenlerarası ve gezegen ortamlarının

durumlarının ve bu ortamları etkileyen güneş ve güneş dışı etkilerle sürülen bozucuların anlaşılmaları ve kestirilmeleri; ayrıca, uzay

havasının, biyoloji ve teknoloji dizgeleri üzerindeki etkilerinin ileriye ve o ana dönük

kestirimlerinin yapılmasıdır.


In Hebrew :המזג אוויר החלל הו המצב הפיזי ופנומנולוגיה של

.הסביבה הטבעי של חלל לידו של קדור הארץהמטרות של הנושא הזה הם בקבלת הבנה ותחזית

את מצב הפעילות השמש, מצב הסביבה של כוכבי-לכת ובין כוכבי לכת, וגם הפרעות של סביבות האלה מפעילות השמש וממקורות של פעילות אחר, שמשפיעים על סביבה. התוצאות האלה מקבלים

גם כן ;ע''י תצפית, ניטור, אנליזה, ובניית המודליםבמטרותו יש תחזית וזיהוי בזמן האמטי את השפעות

"שליליות אפשרויות על מארכות טכנולוגי וביולוגי


In Slovak:Kozmické počasie je fyzikálny

a fenomenologický stav prirodzeného kozmického prostredia. Príslušná vedná disciplína má za cieľ prostredníctvom pozorovaní, monitorovania, analýzy a

modelovania pochopiť a predvídať stav Slnka, medziplanetárneho priestoru

a prostredia v okolí planét, ako aj poruchy, ktoré buď sú alebo nie sú hnané Slnkom,

ktoré tieto prostredia ovplyvňujú. Zaoberá sa tiež predpovedaním a skúmaním

možných dopadov na biologické a technologické systémy.


In Italian:

Il tempo meteorologico spaziale è lo stato fisico e fenomenologico degli ambienti spaziali naturali. Scopo della disciplina

associata, tramite l'osservazione, il monitoraggio, l'analisi e la

modellizzazione, e' quello di comprendere e predire lo stato del sole e degli ambienti

interplanetari e planetari, e le perturbazioni di origine solare e non

solare che influiscono su di essi, come anche di prevedere a breve e lungo termine i possibili impatti sui sistemi

biologici e tecnologici.


In french :Le climat de l’espace désigne l’état physique et phénoménologique des environnements

spatiaux naturels. La discipline associée, la « météorologie de l’espace », vise, à travers l'observation, la surveillance, l'analyse et la

modélisation, à plusieurs objectifs: d'une part, comprendre et prévoir l'état du soleil, des

environnements interplanétaire et planétaires, et des perturbations qui les

affectent, qu’elles soient d’origine solaire ou pas. D'autre part, analyser en temps réel ou prévoir d'éventuels impacts sur les systèmes

biologiques et technologiques.


In Slovenian:Definicija vesoljskega vremena:

Vesoljsko vreme je fizično in pojavno stanje naravnega okolja v vesolju.

Pridružena disciplina skuša z opazovanjem, sledenjem, analizo in modeliranjem razumeti

in napovedati stanje Sonca, interplanetarnega in planetarnega okolja ter

vpliv motenj, do katerih prihaja zaradi procesov na Soncu ali drugih dejavnikov. Prav tako je cilj discipline napovedati in

ugotavljati morebitne vplive na biološke in tehnološke sisteme.


In Gaelic:

Is í aimsir spáis ná staid fhisiciúil agus fheiniméaneolaíoch de thimpeallachtaí

nádúrtha spáis. Tá sé d’aidhm ag an disciplín ghaolmhar staid na gréine, timpeallachtaí

pláinéadacha agus idirphláinéadacha agus na corraíola grianda agus neamhghrianda a

chuireann as dóibh a thuiscint agus a thuar le breathnú, monatóireacht, anailís agus

samhaltú. Tá sé d’aidhm freisin réamhaisnéis agus faisnéis leathlae a thabhairt ar na

hiombhuailtí a d’fhéadfadh a bheith i gceist do chórais bhitheolaíochta agus

theicneolaíochta.


In Czech

Kosmické počasí je fyzikální a fenomenologický stav meziplanetárního prostoru. Výzkum

kosmického počasí usiluje pomocí pozorování, monitorování, analýz a modelování o

pochopení a předpovídání stavu Slunce, meziplanetárního prostoru a vnějších obalů

planet i náhlých změn tohoto stavu vyvolaných sluneční činností a dalšími zdroji; a také o

předpovědi možných dopadů na biologické a technologické systémy.


In Swedish

Rymdväder är den fysiskaliska och fenomenmässiga beskrivningen av tillståndet hos den naturliga rymdmiljön. Det relaterade ämnesområdet syftar, genom observation,

övervakning, analys och modellbyggande, till att förstå och förutsäga tillståndet hos solen, den interplanetära och planetära miljön, samt sol och icke-soldrivna störningar som påverkar dem; samt dessutom att förutsäga och beskriva

de möjliga effekterna på biologiska och teknologiska system.


In Danish

Rumvejr er den fysiske tilstand og de aktive processer i det naturlige miljø i rummet.

De tilknyttede forskningsområder forsøger gennem observationer, overvågning, analyser

og modellering at forstå og forudsige tilstanden på solen, de interplanetare og planetare forhold

samt de soldrevne og ikke-soldrevne forandringer, som påvirker dem, og søger

desuden at forudsige og melde mulige virkninger på biologiske og teknologiske

systemer.


In my personnal point of view, maybe the most important outcome of our action is

The making of a structured European scientific community

And this is what is post-existing.

cost 724:developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting space weather

Documents

space weather cost

space weather slide

space weather week

scientific basis

space weather human

lund space weather center

wg1 monitoring

cost action