Cosmos & Contact

Evidence of DesignEvidence of Design

in the Universein the Universe

Robert C. NewmanRobert C. Newman

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Carl Sagan's Opening Statement in his PBS Series Cosmos

The cosmos is all that is,

or ever was,

or ever will be.

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Carl Sagan on Extra-Terrestrial Life

Sagan doubts that God exists.Sagan doubts that God exists. Yet he believes life exists elsewhere in the Yet he believes life exists elsewhere in the

universe, in spite of lifeuniverse, in spite of life''s enormous complexity.s enormous complexity. He believes that (in some places) this life must He believes that (in some places) this life must

include very advanced life forms.include very advanced life forms. He believes such advanced life is common enough He believes such advanced life is common enough

to be worth searching for.to be worth searching for.

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The Search for ET Intelligence

Many besides Sagan have Many besides Sagan have such dreams.such dreams.

Perhaps (they think) we Perhaps (they think) we can contact such life.can contact such life.

Perhaps these beings have Perhaps these beings have solved the difficult and solved the difficult and dangerous problems we dangerous problems we face today.face today.

The most likely way to The most likely way to contact an advanced contact an advanced civilization would be civilization would be through its radio signals.through its radio signals.

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The Plot of Contact

Ellie Arroway, Ellie Arroway, astrophysicist, devotes her astrophysicist, devotes her professional career to professional career to searching for ETI.searching for ETI.

Despite many setbacks, the Despite many setbacks, the long-awaited message long-awaited message finally comes, a strong finally comes, a strong signal from Vega.signal from Vega.

The signal is seen to be The signal is seen to be more than radio noise by the more than radio noise by the presence of prime numbers, presence of prime numbers, indicating an intelligent indicating an intelligent source.source.

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The Plot of Contact

Eventually, a more complex message is Eventually, a more complex message is found in the signal, instructions to build a found in the signal, instructions to build a device to transport a human to Vega.device to transport a human to Vega.

After several twists in the plot, Ellie winds After several twists in the plot, Ellie winds up going to Vega on the transporter.up going to Vega on the transporter.

Our clip picks up as she arrives … Our clip picks up as she arrives …

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Sagan on Recognizing an ET Message Strong signal.Strong signal.

Detectible by multiple radiotelescopes.Detectible by multiple radiotelescopes. Decisive against chance origin.Decisive against chance origin.

A few dozen prime numbers sufficient.A few dozen prime numbers sufficient. The whole message to build the transport The whole message to build the transport

machine is about fifty thousand pages.machine is about fifty thousand pages.

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How the Book Ends

Ellie discovers a message in the digits of pi.Ellie discovers a message in the digits of pi. Found in base 11 arithmeticFound in base 11 arithmetic A square picture made up of 0s and 1sA square picture made up of 0s and 1s The picture: a circle of 1s in a field of 0sThe picture: a circle of 1s in a field of 0s

Simple message, but high statistical Simple message, but high statistical significancesignificance

The universe was made on purpose, the The universe was made on purpose, the circle said.circle said.

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How the Book Ends

359X21086652790X4312567089243

00000000000111111100000000000

00000001100000000000110000000

00000100000000000000000100000

00001000000000000000000010000

00001000000000000000000010000

00000100000000000000000100000

00000001100000000000110000000

00000000000111111100000000000

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The film doesn't end this way…

No message from God in the film!No message from God in the film! Why not?Why not?

Did Hollywood veto this ending?Did Hollywood veto this ending? Did Sagan back away from Did Sagan back away from ""the precipice of the precipice of

theismtheism"" in his last years? in his last years? DonDon''t knowt know

SaganSagan''s novel s novel ContactContact is more open to theism is more open to theism than his last book than his last book Demon Haunted WorldDemon Haunted World is. is.

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Could God Do Something Like This? Could God put a message in the digits of pi?Could God put a message in the digits of pi? Seems doubtful God could put a message Seems doubtful God could put a message

there:there: Pi is built into the structure of logic and Pi is built into the structure of logic and

so not variable.so not variable. God cannot do what is contradictory.God cannot do what is contradictory.

Could God send us some other message?Could God send us some other message? Why not?Why not?

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Where Might God Put Such a Message? He could put it in something He has created.He could put it in something He has created. Do we have any candidates for such a Do we have any candidates for such a

medium and such a message?medium and such a message? Yes, several. Here we consider three:Yes, several. Here we consider three:

The universe itselfThe universe itself Our place in the universeOur place in the universe Living thingsLiving things

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A Message in the Universe

Seen in its Seen in its ""fine-tuningfine-tuning"" Some bibliography:Some bibliography:

L.J. Henderson, L.J. Henderson, The Fitness of the EnvironmentThe Fitness of the Environment Paul Davies, Paul Davies, The Accidental UniverseThe Accidental Universe John Barrow & Frank Tipler, John Barrow & Frank Tipler, The Anthropic The Anthropic

Cosmological PrincipleCosmological Principle Hugh Ross, Hugh Ross, The Creator & the CosmosThe Creator & the Cosmos Michael Denton, Michael Denton, NatureNature''s Destinys Destiny

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Fine-Tuning the Basic Forces Strong Force Strong Force

short range, strength 1short range, strength 1 Electromagnetism Electromagnetism

long range, strength 1/100long range, strength 1/100 Weak Force Weak Force

very short, strength 1/100,000very short, strength 1/100,000 Gravity Gravity

long range, strength 1/10long range, strength 1/103939

As divergent in strength as these forces are, very As divergent in strength as these forces are, very slight changes in any would be disastrous.slight changes in any would be disastrous.

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The Strong Force

Holds nucleus together.Holds nucleus together. 50% weaker, no stable elements but H50% weaker, no stable elements but H 5% weaker, no deuterium, stars won’t burn5% weaker, no deuterium, stars won’t burn 5% stronger, diproton stable, stars explode5% stronger, diproton stable, stars explode The strong force is tuned to The strong force is tuned to ±5% on the ±5% on the

basis of these considerations alone.basis of these considerations alone.

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The Weak Force

Holds neutron together.Holds neutron together. Neutron decay: half-life 13 minutesNeutron decay: half-life 13 minutes Neutron Neutron Proton + Electron + Antineutrino Proton + Electron + Antineutrino

Few % weaker, then few n, little He, few heavy Few % weaker, then few n, little He, few heavy elements; even these stay trapped in stars.elements; even these stay trapped in stars.

Few % stronger, then many n, too much He, too Few % stronger, then many n, too much He, too many heavy elements; but these, too, stay trapped many heavy elements; but these, too, stay trapped in stars.in stars.

The weak force is tuned to a few percent.The weak force is tuned to a few percent.

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Electromagnetism

Holds atom together, also molecules.Holds atom together, also molecules. Both repulsive & attractive, due to existence of positive & Both repulsive & attractive, due to existence of positive &

negative charges.negative charges. + and – charges must be almost exactly equal in number, + and – charges must be almost exactly equal in number,

to better than one part in 10to better than one part in 104040.. Yet protons (+) and electrons (-) drastically different in Yet protons (+) and electrons (-) drastically different in

mass, and froze out at quite different times in the early mass, and froze out at quite different times in the early universe.universe.

If not for this equality, e-m would dominate gravity, so no If not for this equality, e-m would dominate gravity, so no galaxies, no stars, no planets.galaxies, no stars, no planets.

E-m is tuned to one part in 10E-m is tuned to one part in 104040..

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Gravity

Dominant force on astronomical size scale. Dominant force on astronomical size scale. Need very close balance of gravity and cosmic Need very close balance of gravity and cosmic

expansion for stable universe.expansion for stable universe. If gravity weaker by 1 in 10If gravity weaker by 1 in 106060, universe expands , universe expands

too quickly, no galaxies or stars formed.too quickly, no galaxies or stars formed. If gravity stronger by 1 in 10If gravity stronger by 1 in 106060, universe , universe

collapses without forming galaxies or stars.collapses without forming galaxies or stars. Gravity is fine-tuned to 1 part in 10Gravity is fine-tuned to 1 part in 1060.60.

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Summary on Fine-Tuning

Combining these cases gives fine-tuning of better Combining these cases gives fine-tuning of better than one part in 10than one part in 10100100..

How big is 10How big is 10100100?? 1 with 100 zeroes after it.1 with 100 zeroes after it. There are estimated to be some 10There are estimated to be some 108080 elementary elementary

particles in our universe.particles in our universe. So we need to 10So we need to 102020 universes to get 10 universes to get 10100100

particles!particles! Imagine the chances of randomly picking one Imagine the chances of randomly picking one

marked particle from all these universes!marked particle from all these universes!

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Summary on Fine-Tuning

Fine-tuning of universe is about 1 part in 10Fine-tuning of universe is about 1 part in 10100100 for for the cases we have examined.the cases we have examined.

Hugh Ross, in Hugh Ross, in The Creator & the CosmosThe Creator & the Cosmos, lists 22 , lists 22 more items besides these four.more items besides these four.

Do we really have any evidence for even 10Do we really have any evidence for even 10100100 universes to make this likely merely by chance?universes to make this likely merely by chance?

The universe looks designed.The universe looks designed. It seems to be sending us a message to this effect.It seems to be sending us a message to this effect.

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Sir Fred Hoyle on Fine-Tuning

"… a superintellect has monkeyed with physics, as well as with chemistry and

biology."

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Our Place in the Universe

Besides fine-tuning of basic forces, our Besides fine-tuning of basic forces, our particular location in the universe is quite particular location in the universe is quite special, a matter of many features being just special, a matter of many features being just right.right.

In his 1995 edition, Ross lists over 33 of In his 1995 edition, Ross lists over 33 of these drawn from the scientific literature.these drawn from the scientific literature.

Let’s look at a few of these in this Let’s look at a few of these in this presentation.presentation.

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The Right Planet: Temperature Varies from place to place Varies from place to place

on Earth, but:on Earth, but: Few above boilingFew above boiling Some below freezingSome below freezing

Contrast Venus, about 900 Contrast Venus, about 900 ooF (500 F (500 ooC).C).

Contrast Mars, barely gets Contrast Mars, barely gets above freezing in above freezing in midsummer at the equator.midsummer at the equator.

Earth is warm enough for Earth is warm enough for water to be liquid, cool water to be liquid, cool enough not to destroy enough not to destroy biomolecules.biomolecules.

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The Right Planet: Water

Much water is needed to Much water is needed to support life, though a few support life, though a few organisms have organisms have techniques to conserve it techniques to conserve it and can live in arid and can live in arid regions.regions.

Water on Venus and Mars Water on Venus and Mars is infinitesimal by is infinitesimal by comparison.comparison.

EarthEarth''s water is also s water is also concentrated at the concentrated at the surface.surface.

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The Right Planet: Atmosphere

Balance of oxygen and Balance of oxygen and ""inertinert"" gases: gases: Few % less oxygen and Few % less oxygen and

animals can’t breatheanimals can’t breathe Few % more oxygen Few % more oxygen

and plants burn upand plants burn up Mars and Venus have Mars and Venus have

virtually no free oxygen.virtually no free oxygen.

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The Right Planet: Mass

If Earth were ¼ as If Earth were ¼ as massive, atmospheric massive, atmospheric pressure would be too pressure would be too low for life.low for life.

If Earth were twice as If Earth were twice as massive, atmospheric massive, atmospheric pressure would be too pressure would be too high, producing a high, producing a greenhouse effect and greenhouse effect and killing all life.killing all life.

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The Right Moon: Size & Distance Our Moon is unique in the Our Moon is unique in the

Solar System, by far the Solar System, by far the largest compared with its largest compared with its planet.planet.

If it were smaller (or If it were smaller (or further away), Earth’s further away), Earth’s climate would be unstable, climate would be unstable, tides too small for mixing.tides too small for mixing.

If it were larger (or closer), If it were larger (or closer), tidal effects on Earth’s tidal effects on Earth’s rotation, ocean & rotation, ocean & atmosphere too large.atmosphere too large.

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The Right Moon & Earth's Crust

If EarthIf Earth''s crust thicker, it s crust thicker, it would eat up the would eat up the atmospheric oxygen.atmospheric oxygen.

If EarthIf Earth''s crust thinner, too s crust thinner, too much volcanism and plate much volcanism and plate movement.movement.

The Moon apparently The Moon apparently formed from the Earthformed from the Earth''s s crust, when we were crust, when we were struck by a Mars-sized struck by a Mars-sized planet, a very fluky event!planet, a very fluky event!

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The Right Sun: Character Mass in right range:Mass in right range:

Heavier – luminosity Heavier – luminosity changes too quicklychanges too quickly

Lighter – life zone too Lighter – life zone too narrow, tides too largenarrow, tides too large

Temperature (color) in right Temperature (color) in right range:range: Redder – insufficient Redder – insufficient

photosynthesisphotosynthesis Bluer – dittoBluer – ditto

The SunThe Sun''s radiation is right s radiation is right where our atmosphere is where our atmosphere is transparent.transparent.

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The Right Sun: Location Distance from center of Distance from center of

galaxy:galaxy: Closer – gravity, Closer – gravity,

radiation disruptiveradiation disruptive Further – too few heavy Further – too few heavy

elementselements Right for supernovae:Right for supernovae:

More or closer – More or closer – exterminate lifeexterminate life

Less or further – too few Less or further – too few heavy elementsheavy elements

Right number of stars in Right number of stars in system, namely one!system, namely one!

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The Right Galaxy

Our galaxy is a spiral, Our galaxy is a spiral, which produces stars over which produces stars over much of its history.much of its history.

Not an elliptical, where Not an elliptical, where star formation ends before star formation ends before there are many heavy there are many heavy elements.elements.

Not an irregular, where Not an irregular, where radiation events would radiation events would have destroyed life.have destroyed life.

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Our Place in the Universe

Right Planet:Right Planet: Temperature, Water, Atmosphere, MassTemperature, Water, Atmosphere, Mass

Right Moon:Right Moon: Size, Distance, EarthSize, Distance, Earth''s Crusts Crust

Right Sun:Right Sun: Character, LocationCharacter, Location

Right GalaxyRight Galaxy

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Our Place in the Universe

Ross calculates the probability of accidentally getting Ross calculates the probability of accidentally getting his 33 items in the right range as 1 chance in 10his 33 items in the right range as 1 chance in 105353..

What does this mean for the chances of finding an What does this mean for the chances of finding an earth-like planet in our universe?earth-like planet in our universe? Surely not more than 10 planets per star.Surely not more than 10 planets per star. If so, only 10If so, only 102424 planets in the Hubble volume. planets in the Hubble volume. Thus only 1 chance in 10Thus only 1 chance in 102929 of getting even one of getting even one

such planet in our universe!such planet in our universe! Our place in the universe appears to be telling us Our place in the universe appears to be telling us

something!something!

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Living Things

Living things are by far the most complex Living things are by far the most complex objects we have yet found in our universe.objects we have yet found in our universe.

Sagan says of the Sagan says of the E. coliE. coli bacterium: bacterium: Information content = 10Information content = 101212 bits. bits. Equivalent to 100 million pages of the Equivalent to 100 million pages of the

Encyclopaedia Britannica.Encyclopaedia Britannica. Humans have trillions of cells, each more Humans have trillions of cells, each more

complex than those of complex than those of E. coli.E. coli.

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Fred Hoyle on Living Things

"The chance that higher life forms might have emerged [accidentally] is comparable with the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junk-yard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein."

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Sagan on Recognizing an ET Message

Strong signal.Strong signal. Detected by several radiotelescopes.Detected by several radiotelescopes.

Decisive against chance.Decisive against chance. A few dozen prime numbers sufficient. A few dozen prime numbers sufficient.

The whole message to build the transport The whole message to build the transport machine is about fifty thousand pages.machine is about fifty thousand pages.

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Recognizing the Life Message

Strong signal.Strong signal. Seen in the DNA of all living things.Seen in the DNA of all living things.

Decisive against chance. Decisive against chance. The information content is beyond the The information content is beyond the

probabilistic resources of the universe.probabilistic resources of the universe. The whole message to build an The whole message to build an E. coli E. coli

bacterium is about 100 million pages.bacterium is about 100 million pages.

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Adjusting One’s Worldview

If Sagan was really open If Sagan was really open to the universe;to the universe;

If he was really willing to If he was really willing to consider the supernatural;consider the supernatural;

Why didn’t he respond to Why didn’t he respond to this sort of evidence?this sort of evidence?

Why did he draw back Why did he draw back from from ""the precipice of the precipice of theismtheism""??

Do you need to adjust Do you need to adjust your worldview?your worldview?

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The End

What about you?What about you?

This could be just the beginning!This could be just the beginning!

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