cosmo-sreps priority project
DESCRIPTION
COSMO-SREPS Priority Project. C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS. aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty. boundary conditions. initial conditions. LAM ensemble. model (LM): schemes, parameters, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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COSMO-SREPS Priority Project
C. Marsigli
ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
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model (LM): schemes, parameters,
surface forcings
COSMO-SREPS
i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model
LM perturbations
aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty
LAM ensemble
boundary conditions
initial conditions
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people involved in the PP
Involved COSMO people:
• Marsigli, Montani, Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM)
+ collaborations:
• S. Theis (DWD) – discussion on the methodologies and sharing of perturbation techniques
• U. Schaettler (DWD) – new version of LM developed to move from the code to a namelist a number of tuneable parameters
• WG2 and WG3 people has provided a parameter list
Non-COSMO:
• INM (Spain): J. Garcia-Moya, J. Simarro, …
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Task Suggested scientists(optional)
% FTE per year
start milestones date
0: Preliminary actions for the system set-up
people external to the project
0 September 2005 - LM code to LM by December 2005- INM initial and boundary conditions at ECMWF by June 2006
June 2006
1: Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories
external collaboration of S. Theis
30% January 2006 - model parameters to be perturbed by December 2006
December 2006
2: Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial condition
40% October 2006 - ETKF implemented by the end of 2007
June 2008
3: System set-up external collaborations of INM and U. Schaettler
5% May 2006 - data transfer by INM for the first tests- 1-month test set-up by October 2006 - set-up of e-suite in 2007
June 2007
4: Test on case studies
50% June 2006 - analysis of the impact of the different perturbations
December 2006
5: Test on a regular basis
40% January 2007 December 2007
6: Verification 20% January 2007 October 2008
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ic and bc: multi-model approach a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is operational at INM (Spain): 4 different limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM) are nested on 5 different global models (IFS, GME, AVN, UM, LM) => 20 members ensemble (25 km horizontal resolution)
LM has been added in May 2006
IFS LM 25km
GME LM 25km
AVN LM 25 km
Courtesy of INM
UM LM 25 km
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COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble
Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days)
16 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
Sp
ain LM at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
LM at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
LM at 25 km on NCEP
AVN – NCEP global
P1: conv. scheme (KF)
P2: turb. parameter 1
P3: time filter
P4: turb. parameter 2
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Parameter listparameter name parameter description range default value usedPHYSICS
crsminminimal stomata resistance (part of 'terra'; sensible for much vegetation and not too dry soil [50,200] s/m 150 50, 200
c_soilsurface area index of the evaporating soil (part of 'terra'; sensible for less vegetation and not too dry soil ]0,c:lnd[ 0, clnd (=2)
plcovplant cover (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran'; controls transpiration) [0,1]
laileave area index (part of 'terra' and 'turbtran', controls transpiration) [0,10]
rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,50] 0.1, 50
c_difffactor for turbulent diffusion of TKE (may influence mixing at an inversion top) [0,2] 1 0, 2
pat_lenlength scale of thermal surface patterns (influences mixing in the stable stratified atmosphere) [0,10000] m 500 0, 10000
tur_lenmaximal turbulent length scale (influences mainly stratospheric mixing) [100,1000] m 1000
rat_canscaling parameter for the diagnosed canopy height (rather big influence on Td2m, but will be obsolete shortly) [0,10]
z0m_diaroughness length at a synop station (rather big influence on V10m, will very likely be obsolete in future) [0.05,0.5] m
NUMERICSl2tls 2-time-level scheme T or F false trueepsass Asselin filter coefficient [0.05,0.2] 0.15 0.05
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13 15 UTC
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47N
44N
6W 9W
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13 18 UTC
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47N
45N
7W
10W
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14 00 UTC
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46.5N
45N
10.5W 13W
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14 06 UTC
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13 May 12-18 UTC
COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24 24-30 h
COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h
> 10mm/6h
> 10mm/6h
10
30
60
90
100
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COSMO-SREPS fc. range 24-30
14 May 0-6 UTC
ecmwf
gme
avn
ukmo
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ensemble spread
12/05
12UTC
13/05
00UTC
13/05
12UTC
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member behaviour (“father”)
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intra-group distance
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Task 0. Preliminary actions for the system set-up
Formal agreement between COSMO and INM:
• use of LM by INM: support has been given to INM -> done
• provision of the forecasts to COSMO: SREPS output available
From May 2006 3-hourly initial and boundary conditions for COSMO-SREPS are provided daily at ECMWF on ECFS: 4 LM runs at 25 km on an Euro-Atlantic area, nested on 4 different global models (IFS,GME,AVN,UKMO) interpolated with int2lm at 10 km over the COSMO-LEPS area
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Task 1. Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories
• Schemes (physics and numerics): Some schemes have been selected to be perturbed: Tiedtke, Tiedtke with cape closure, Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta
• Parameters:
• a first selection of the parameters has been done (analysis of few case studies)
• the new tuneable parameters will be tested (provided by external collaborations of WG3 people + Susanne Theis)
• Surface forcings: LM surface fields -> interest of Luca Bonaventura to test a technique for the perturbation of surface parameters -> to be developed
Task 2. Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial conditions: it will start in October with a visit to Bologna of Neill Bowler from UKMO.
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Task 3. System set-up:• Data transfer between INM and ECMWF: done
• Adaptation of source code to give the possibility to use tuneable or random parameters: the new model version model will include a new namelist file in which many physical parameters can be set (Uli Schaettler, WG6) -> done
• Extracting LM frames and nesting of LM on LM frames (WG6): to be discussed
• Discussion on computer resources: during 2006 SP SPITLAEF is being used. A new Special Project submitted to ECMWF for the developing phase for 2007 (SPITFEAR). Collection of COSMO units to be discussed.
• Establish the link SIR-COSMO SREPS: this meeting
• Possibility to have a COSMO originating centre in the GRIB coding: to be discussed (possible link with TIGGE)
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Task 4. Test on case studies
Test of SREPS prototype on real-time case studies and comparison with COSMO-LEPS and “model perturbed COSMO-LEPS”:
• run of COSMO-SREPS for 1 case study to test that the chain from INM to COSMO-SREPS is working -> done
• run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations only for 1 month of Autumn 2006:
• statistical analysis of the system
• provide b.c. for EELMK tests
• comparison with COSMO-LEPS and PEPS
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Plans for 2006-2007Task 5. Test on a regular basis
• Task 5.1 selection of the methodology to generate the perturbations :
• parameters: based on the analysis of the results of the 1-month test period
• development of the i.c. perturbations technique
• Task 5.2 selection of the testing period:
• possible link with MAP D-PHASE (summer-autumn 2007)
• availability of observations (-> WG5)
• Task 5.3 investigation on computer resources:
• COSMO units available?
• Task 5.4 INM data availability
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Plans for 2006-2008
Task 6. Verification
• Task 6.1 selection of the verification methodologies (with WG5)
• Task 6.2 selection of the reference data-set: COSMO observations, VERA analyses (MAP D-PHASE),…
• Task 6.3 computation of the score: comparison with COSMO-LEPS (and/or perturbed COSMO-LEPS?) and PEPS
+ EELMK and SIR links