corrupack conclave 2013 hydrabad-india presentation carl bohm

7/29/2019 CorruPack Conclave 2013 Hydrabad-India Presentation Carl Bohm

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o a erspec veo a erspec ve

Conclave 2013Conclave 2013

Carl Bohm

President

International Corrugated Case Association (ICCA)

1


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International Corrugated Case Association Overview

Formed in 1961 by leading industry executives,

corrugated industry on a global basis

,

corrugated packaging and addresses industry-

wide issues best suited for a global association

ICCA serves the global corrugated industry by:

Collecting and publishing global statistics

Publishing an annual, five year forecast Holding a bi-annual Global Summit (Paris, Montreal,

Tokyo, Sydney, Costa Rica)

July 2013

Next Global Summit will be in Asia in 2015 (Taipei or

China)


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Opening Comments: A Global Perspective

Economic difficulties continue to present

challenges to our industry US economic recovery continues slowly and steadily

Other developed economies slow or flat

China and Indias economies slowing esp te econom c c a enges, customers st nee

corrugated packaging

Protects oods in transi

Graphics can vary from basic brown boxes to highly complex,retail-oriented boxes with multiple colors and product photos

July 2013


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Opening Comments: A Global Perspective

Corru ated acka in remains the acka in of

choice world-wide Great value for the money

s reusa e, recyc a e, renewa e an sus a na e

It has competitive advantages over plastic containers

The corrugated packaging industry has a strong value propositionfor clients

July 2013


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o a verv ewo a verv ew

July 2013


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Asia is the Largest Region for Corrugated Box Production

Asia led by China is by far the largest corrugatedre ion with size and hi h- rowth

India, South Korea and S.E Asia are also high growth areas J apan has large corrugated volume but little growth

Europe including Eastern Europe is half the size ofAsia with slow overall growth Eastern Europe growing rapidly Western Europe has low to negative growth

North America is now only 40% the size of Asia with

a grow U.S. has slow, steady growth Mexico has good growth and a bright future

July 2013

ana a as nega ve grow


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Overall Global Volumes Grew 3.6% in 2012

Region Profiles (Production/Shipment Volumes by Millions of Square Meters)

RegionRegion 20122012 % Growth Rate% Growth Rate

Asia 100,326 +6.9%

Europe 48,506 -0.1%

North America incl. Mexico 39,617 +0.7%

+ , .

Oceania (Australia & NZ) 2,679 +3.4%

Africa 2,251 +2.4%

or orruga e o umes , + .

Source: International Corrugated Case Association 2012 Global Corrugated Statistics

July 2013


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Large Volume Countries Affect Global Growth

Country Profiles (Production/Shipment Volumes by Millions of Square Meters)

CountryCountry 20122012 % Growth Rate% Growth RateChina 55,988 +11.2%

. . , .

Japan 13,140 +1.0%

Germany 9,158 0.0%

Large Country Volumes 54% or 111,748 +3.6%

China leads in size and total rowth--si nificant

Source: International Corrugated Case Association 2011 Global Corrugated Forecast, PRISM

contributor to worlds corrugated growth

54% of all global corrugated volume linked to four

July 2013


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High Growth Countries Affecting Global Growth

China dominates the high-growth countries in sizeand double-digit growth rates C nas s ze s greater t en rest o t e arge-vo ume countres

combined Chinas 2012 growth represents 80% of total 2012 global

corru ated rowth

India in particular has the potential to become one

and economic growth Southeast Asia also growing rapidly (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand)

India has opportunity to increase per capita production of

corrugated

July 2013


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Developed Countries Have Combined Negative Growth

Eight developed countries represent 35% of globalcorru ated volume but combined rowth is

negative

Economies are slow, flat or struggling

High sovereign debt in all countries---some struggling to pay. ., U.S. and J apan experiencing low economic growth High unemployment levels in many countries

July 2013


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Developed Countries Have Combined Negative Growth

Developed Country Profiles (Production/Shipment Volumes by Millions Square Meters)

oun ryoun ry row a erow a e

U.S. 33,462 +0.3%

Japan 13,268 +1.0%

Germany 9,158 0.0%

France 5,274 -4.5%

-, .

Spain 4,184 -1.1%

U.K. 3,796 -0.2%

ana a , - .Total 78,107 -0.3%

July 2013


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Top 15 Countries Represent 80% of the Worlds Corrugated

Production

Top 15 Country Profiles (Production/Shipment Volumes by Millions Square Meters)(Millions of square meters)

CountryCountry 20122012

VolumeVolume

% of% of

WorldWorld

CountryCountry 20122012

VolumeVolume

% of% of

WorldWorld

China 55,988 27.3% France 5,274 2.6%

US 33,462 16.2% Indonesia 4,625 2.3%

Japan 13,268 6.5% Spain 4,184 2.0%

Germany 9,158 4.5% U.K. 3,796 1.9%

India #5 6,326 3.1% Poland 3,408 1.7%

Brazil 6,311 3.1% Mexico 3,378 1.6%

Italy 6,188 3.0% Turkey 3,346 1.7%

, .

Sub-total 164,293 80%

July 2013

Total205,475 100%

Source: International Corrugated Case Association 2012 Global Statistics


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Global Outlook for CorrugatedGlobal Outlook for Corrugated

July 2013


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Global Manufacturing Shifting to Emerging Markets

Global manufacturing and corrugated demand wil lcontinue to ex erience a lon -term shift awa fromdeveloped countries to emerging markets

The long-term shifts in global manufacturing willrepresen su s an a c a enges or or mer caand western European economies

-,industrial production growth in developed regionsof North America, Europe and Japan

In emerging regions of the world, industrialproduction growth and corrugated growth arehighly correlated except India where corrugated

July 2013

grow s e y o ou pace n us r a pro uc on


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Industrial Demand Forecast By Region

Industrial Production Forecast % Change from Prior Year

RegionRegion 20112011 20122012 2013 Forecast2013 Forecast

North America +4.0% 3.7% 3.0%

Europe +3.1% -1.4% 1.0%

Pacific Rim +1.7% 2.2% 3.5%

China +13.8% 10.3% 12.0%

. . .

C & S America +2.0% 1.6% 3.4%

Total +4.1% 2.1% 3.3%

Source: ICCA 2012 Global Corrugated Study with forecasts from EIU, Federal Reserve Bank and PRISM

July 2013


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Global Corrugated Growth Follows Mfg and Industrial

Developed Regions: Market maturity, economicpressures an env ronmen a ssues epress ng

corrugated demand growth

slowing, these markets will benefit from higher

industrial production growth positively impactingrun

The good news: Corrugated packaging is forecast

to continue to grow globally in all major corrugatedregions

July 2013


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Corrugated Trends and Forecast By Region

Global Corrugated Growth Trends & Forecasts by Area

% Chan e from Prior Yea

RegionRegion 20122012

ActualActual

20132013

ForecastForecast

20142014

ForecastForecast

North America 0.7% 1.3% 1.7%

Europe -0.1% 1.7%* 1.0%

. . .

Rest of Asia 1.9% 4.3% 4.5%

C & S America 2.1% 3.0% 3.5%

er eg on . . .Total 3.6% 3.3% 3.8%

Source: ICCA 2012 Global Corrugated Study and PRISM

July 2013

* Europes 2013 forecast appears optimistic based on YTD statistics


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Top 15 Countries Represent Majority of Global Incremental

Top 15 countries produce 90% of incrementalg o a corruga e grow e ween an

Emerging markets in Asia are led by China and

industrial production growth

Develo ed countries have low corru ated rowthrates where there is a lower correlation withindustrial production

ver me emerg ng mar e s w ncrease e r global market share of corrugated packaging

July 2013


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Top 15 Countries Will Generate the Vast Majority of Corrugated Growt

Top 15 Countries Ranked by Incremental Corrugated

Output from 2011 to 2016- (Volumes by Millions Square Meters)

CountryCountry IncrementalIncrementalMSMMSM

% Share of% Share ofGrowthGrowth

% Annual% AnnualGrowthGrowth

China 18,298 48.3% 6.4%

India 3,291 8.7% 8.8%US 2,406 6.4% 1.3%

Indonesia 1,351 6.2% 8.7%

Brazil 1,208 3.2% 3.3%

South Korea 976 2.6% 3.2%

Turkey 973 2.6% 5.2%

July 2013

Source: ICCA 2012 Global Corrugated Forecast and PRISM


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Corrugated Trends and Forecast For Top 15 Countries-continued

Top 15 Countries Ranked by Incremental Corrugated

Output from 2011 to 2016 (Volumes by Millions Square Meters)

CountryCountry IncrementalIncrementalMSMMSM

ForecastForecast

% Share of% Share ofGrowthGrowth % Annual% AnnualGrowthGrowth

ForecastForecast

Mexico 811 2.1% 3.9%

Vietnam 718 1.9% 8.9%

. .

Thailand 664 1.8% 4.6%

Russia 596 1.6% 4.0%

apan . .Germany 418 1.1% 0.9%

Philippines 254 0.7% 4.0%

July 2013

Top 15 Countries 33,084 90% 4.3%

Source: ICCA 2012 Global Corrugated Study and PRISM


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Corrugated Outlook for AsiaCorrugated Outlook for Asia

July 2013


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Despite Growth in Overall Volume Developed Regions Forecast

to Lose Global Market Share of Corru ated Production

Corrugated Trends(Production Volumes by Millions of Square Meters)

DevelopedDevelopedRegionsRegions 20112011MSMMSM %% MrktMrktShareShare 20162016MSMMSM %% MrktMrktShareShare DifferenceDifference

N. America 39 347 19.8% 46 277 19.2%

Europe 48,557 24.5% 52,954 22%

Japan 13,140 6.6% 13,569 5.6%, . , .

Sub-total 103,635 52.1% 115,508 47.9% -4.2%

WorldCorrugated

Volumes

198,380 241,257

July 2013

Source: International Corrugated Case Association 2012 Global Corrugated Forecast


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Emerging Regions Forecast to Gain Global Market Share ofCorrugated Production

Corrugated Trends(Production Volumes by Millions of Square Meters)

merg ngmerg ng

RegionsRegions MSMMSM

rr

ShareShare MSMMSM

rr

ShareShare DifferenceDifferencePacific Rim

7,652 3.9% 8,679 3.6%.

China 50,340 25.4% 68,639 28.5%

Rest of 18,357 9.3% 26,133 10.8%

C & S Amer 11,843 6.0% 14,395 6.0%

Other 6,553 3.3% 7,903 3.3%

Sub-total 94,745 47.9% 125,749 52.1% +4.2%World

Corrugated 198,380 100% 241,257 100%

July 2013

Volumes



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High Growth Countries Affecting Global Growth

Asian Corrugated Production Forecast 2011-2016(Production/Shipment Volumes by Millions Square Meters)

ountryountry 20122012 20112011--16 rowth16 rowth

Rate% P.A.Rate% P.A.China 55,988 +6.4%

India 6,326 +8.8%

Indonesia 4,625 +8.7%

Malaysia 1,242 1.8%

Pakistan 361 +9.1%

Philippines 1,359 +4.0%

.

Thailand 3,362 +3.9%

Vietnam 3,362 8.9%

July 2013

Total 74,870 +6.6%

Source: International Corrugated Case Association 2011 Global Corrugated Statistics


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Significant Opportunity Appears to Exist for India to Increase

Corru ated Production er Ca itaCorrugated Trends Per Capita Estimates 2011-2016

(Production Volumes by Millions of Square Meters)

CountryCountry 20112011PopulationPopulation

20112011CorrCorr

PerPerCapitaCapita

(MSM)(MSM)

20162016PopulationPopulation

20162016CorrCorr

PerPerCapitaCapita

China 1,348 50341 37 1382 68639 50

,

Indonesia 240 4525 19 255 6876 27

Thailand 64 3146 49 66 3810 58

Total Asia 3254 68791 21 3423 94772 28


July 2013


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Closing Messages -- The Good News

Asias economies and corrugated growth, volume andmarket share, will continue increasing faster than rest

China will remain worlds largest corrugated region

Indias corrugated production growth rate forecasthigher than Chinas 2011 to 2016

gn can oppor un y ex s s o ncrease per cap a

volume of corrugated production in India

all major regions albeit at a slower rate in the near term

July 2013

continue to be the packaging of choice


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Thank You

I appreciate the opportunity to present to

you and welcome questions and

comments

International Corrugated Case Association

(ICCA)

July 2013

corrupack conclave 2013 hydrabad-india presentation carl bohm

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