corn update 2015
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Corn Update
April 27, 2015
Crop Progress | Corn Supply and Demand | Historical Information
2015 Corn Planting Progress
Source: USDA, 4/20/15; these 18 states planted 92% of the corn acreage in 2014.
32% 7%20%59%
2%
17%
56%
10%31%
14%3%
4%38%
5%
16%
16%
9%
3% As of April 26 …
Nationwide 19%
This time, last year 17%
Five-year average 25%
Planting Progress
9%
19%5%
13%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 25-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul
2015 5-YR AVG
2015 Planting Intentions27
0
530 10
90
305
1170
0
5800
1360
0
4050
1480
450
510
2450
8500
570
3300
9300
1120
870
2700 35
00
330 14
70
290
5200
840
2300
500
4100
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
AL AR CO GA IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO NE NY NC ND OH OK PA SC SD TN TX VA WI
Acres, in Thousands, for NCGA-Affiliated States
Source: USDA, 3/31/15
2015 Planting Intentions90
98
95
87
98 98 99 100
97
113
102
96
104
112
94
100
98
104
96 95
103
101
98
90 91
102
100 10
3
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
AL AR CO GA IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO NE NY NC ND OH OK PA SC SD TN TX VA WI
2015 Acres as a Percentage of 2014 Acres Planted
Source: USDA, 3/31/15
How Does March Report Compare to Final?
1,925
366 308
3,073
-32
-1,496
606
-242
1,291
-1,916
1,094
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in acres planted for corn, from March’s Prospective Plantings report
to final report of acres planted
Thousand Acres
Grain Stocks
3861
1863
462
7087
4380
3148
1989
770
41243365
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015
In Millions of Bushels
On Farm Off Farm
Source: USDA, 3/31/15
Last YearThis Year
CORN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Comparing Last Two YearsCrop Marketing Year 2013-14 2014-15
Supp
ly
Area Planted 95.4 mil acres 90.6 mil acres
Area Harvested 87.7 mil acres 83.1 mil acres
Corn Produced 13.9 bill bushels 14.2 bill bushels
Beginning Stocks 821 mil bushels 1.2 bil bushels
Total Corn Supply 14.8 bil bushels 15.5 bil bushels
Average Corn Yield 158.8 bu/A 171.0 bu/A
Dem
and
Feed and Residual 5.2 bil bushels 5.3 bil bushels
Ethanol & Co-Products 5.0 bil bushels 5.2 bil bushels
Other Domestic Uses 1.4 bil bushels 1.4 bil bushels
Export Demand 1.9 bil bushels 1.8 bil bushels
Ending Stocks (Surplus) 1.2 bil bushels 1.8 bil bushels
Source: USDA, 3/10/15
Current U.S. Corn Demand
34%
6%27%
9%
12%
12%
Feed/Residual (5.3)Distillers Grains (1.0)Ethanol Only (4.2)Other Uses (1.4)Export (1.8)Ending Stocks (1.8)
2014 Corn Supply:15.5 Billion Bushels
Source: USDA, PRX, 3/11/15
Corn Supply Comparison
Acreage97
.2
95.4
90.6
87.4
87.7
83.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014
Planted Harvested
Production
10.8
13.9
14.2
11.9
14.8
15.5
02468
10121416
2012 2013 2014
Harvest Total Supply
Million Acres Billion Bushels
Source: USDA
Corn Demand Comparison4.
5
4.7
1.4
0.7
0.85.2
5.0
1.4
1.9
1.2
5.3
5.2
1.4
1.8
1.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Feed and Residual Ethanol andCoproducts
Other Domestic Uses Exports, Mostly asFeed
Ending Stocks(Surplus)
2012 2013 2014
Distillers Grains: The corn equivalent of 1-1.2 billion bushels each year goes from ethanol production into livestock feed
Source: USDA, PRX; * Total domestic feed, including distillers grains
5.6*
6.2*
6.3*
Billion bushels
HISTORICAL INFORMATION
History: Acres and Production
1.8 2.22.8
3.9 4.2
6.67.9
9.9
12.4104
8983 81
67
8474
8088
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Production Planted AcresBillion Bushels
Source: USDA
Million Acres
History: Average Corn Yield
20.528.9
38.254.7
72.491
118.5136.9
152.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bushels Per Acre
Source: USDA
1,967
1,304
1,624 1,673 1,708
1,128 989
821
1,232
1,777
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Bushels
Carry-Out / Ending Stocks / Surplus
Source: USDA
Annual Average Farm Price per Bushel
$2.00
$3.04
$4.20 $4.06 $3.55
$5.18
$6.22 $6.89
$4.46
$3.70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: USDA
How Field Corn Uses Have Changed
5.3
6
5.7
4.2
1 4.2
1.6
0.6
1.4
1.4
1.9
0.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2014
2005
2000
1980
Feed Distillers Grains Ethanol Other Domestic Exported
Source: USDA/PRX. 2013 is projected use as of 8/13. DG amount is the corn equivalence of distillers grain used as livestock feed, a coproduct of ethanol production.
Billion Bushels
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