corn stover economic considerations

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Stover Economic Considerations Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa November 29, 2012 Chad Hart and William Edwards Department of Economics Iowa State University

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Corn Stover Economic Considerations. Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa November 29, 2012 Chad Hart and William Edwards Department of Economics Iowa State University. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). Source: NREL. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Stover Economic ConsiderationsIntegrated Crop Management Conference

Ames, IowaNovember 29, 2012

Chad Hart and William EdwardsDepartment of Economics

Iowa State University

Page 2: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

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2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

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Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic BiofuelsBiodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels

Page 3: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NREL

Page 4: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cellulosic Biofuel is a New Market As a new market, there is uncertainty

about many aspects of production and trade

What are the revenues/costs of biofuel and feedstock production?

How will these revenues/costs flow through the supply chain?

Page 5: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Contract Legally binding agreement to exchange

goods or services for a payment

Outlines the risk-return tradeoff between buyers and sellers

Often addresses the major benefits/challenges of the trade

Page 6: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Essential Elements for Producer Participation in Biomass Markets

Darren H. Jarboe, Bobby J. Martens, M. Mainul Hoque, and Georgeanne M. Artz

Iowa State University

Survey conducted in 2011 Sent to 2,250 Iowa crop producers farming

50 acres or more

Page 7: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Biofuels Knowledge

Source: Jarboe, et al. 2011

Page 8: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Interest in Supplying Biomass

Source: Jarboe, et al. 2011

Page 9: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soil and Residue Management

Source: Jarboe, et al. 2011

Page 10: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Producer ChallengesChallenge Average RatingNutrient loss 5.55Distance to markets 5.52Long-term biomass market viability 5.44Biomass price volatility 5.26Soil erosion issues 5.19Percent of biomass removed 5.13In-field transport and compaction 5.00Contract opt-out clauses 4.99Contract terms of storage 4.93Residue management 4.92

Source: Jarboe, et al. 2011

Page 11: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Brief Outline of 2012 DCE Contract

Harvest 2 dry tons per acre$7.50 per bale$1.50 per acre if not harvestedBales moved to field edge within a weekBales moved from field edge by March 2013

DCE covers harvest, transportation, and storage costs

Page 12: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pricing Corn StoverAdded costs to seller (minimum price to accept)•Harvesting and transporting (unless buyer does this)•Nutrient replacement•Reduced tillage? (cost saved)•Yield effect?

Value to buyer (maximum price to pay)•Tied to price of gas and oil (ethanol use)•Tied to prices of alternative feedstuffs (feed use)

For trade to occur, the price must be between these values.

Page 13: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ag Decision Maker file A1-70,”Estimating a Value for Corn Stover”

Page 14: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Added Costs to Seller

• Harvesting costs (custom rates, $/acre)– Chopping stalks $11.05– Raking $ 6.20– Baling ($11.50 / bale x 4 bales/ac) $46.00– Transport (20 mi.@$.25/mi/bale x4) $20.00– Total $83.25

Page 15: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Nutrient removal per ton of dry matter – 5.9 lb. P @ $.53 $ 3.13– 25.0 lb. K @ $.55 $13.75 $16.88 / dry ton X 80% dry matter $13.50 /wet ton x .6 wet tons/bale x 4 bales/ac = $32.40/acre+ harvesting costs $83.25/acre Total cost per acre $115.62 Cost per wet ton (80% d.m.) $ 48.19 /ton

Page 16: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Maximum Price to Offer(value of feedstuffs replaced)

• 1.16 tons grass/legume hay per ton of stover @$125 $145.00

• minus .22 tons of distillers grains @$260 $ 57.20

$ 87.80/t. stover

Price range = $48.19 to $87.80

Page 17: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Price for Ethanol Feedstock

• Maximum price depends on value of crude oil, other feedstocks, gasoline, etc.

• If processor does the harvesting, producer needs to cover added fertility costs, only.

• Example: $13.40 per wet ton $32.40 per acre

Page 18: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Relevant Trading Range

• Buyer and seller can bargain between the maximum and minimum

• If the minimum price > maximum price, it is not economical to use the stover

Page 19: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Some Guidance on Pricing

Page 20: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cleanliness of stover

Yield impacts of stover removal?

Less tillage needed?

Compaction?

Time needed for fall tillage and fertilizer?

Source: Darr, et al. 2012

Other Items to Consider

Page 21: Corn Stover Economic Considerations

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/