coping with crisis and complexity. a complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
1/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity
B fnmpdlxity sfilafl-ia`nrmle bpprnbfc tn frisis mbabglmlat
Duelsfclr$ Bderif @!
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
2/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Bkstrbft
Bkstrbft
Ucl fnmpdlx systlm bpprnbfc$ wcifc iavndvls slliag iatlrfnaalftinas bae rldbtinascips$
pdbys ba iafrlbsiag rndl ia mnst sfilati`if eisfipdials bae cbs rlpdbfle tcl prlvinus
prlsfriptivl$ mlfcbaistif bpprnbfc n` elfnastruftiag b systlm iatn its fnmpnalats tnuaelrstbae tcl wcndl! Cnwlvlr$ n`tla frisis mbabglmlat systlms ia nrgbaisbtinas brl ant
kuidt ia bffnrebafl witc tclsl priafipdls bae prnviel tcl iddusina n` fnatrnd n` fnmpdlx
situbtinas tcrnugc eltbidle iastruftinas! Ucis tclsis `irst ielati`ils frisis-rldlvbat priafipdls
`rnm fnmpdlxity sfilafl bae elsfrikls tclir impdifbtinas `nr frisis mbabglmlat tlbms!
Kbsle na tclsl priafipdls$ altwnrjs bae altwnrj klcbvinurs uaelr frisis brl usle bs b
mneld `nr sufflss`ud frisis mbabglmlat: tcl jly fcbrbftlristifs n` sufc altwnrjs brl
elsfrikle bae tclir bppdifbtina `nr nrgbaisbtinabd frisis mbabglmlat is nutdiale! Ky lxpdnriag
tcrll tclnrltifbd mnelds `nr fnpiag witc fnmpdlxity$ tcl tclsis tcla prnflles tn n``lr bsimpdl$ ylt prbftifbd$ mneld labkdiag nrgbaisbtinas tn batifipbtl pnssikdl impbft$ bksnrk tcl
fnmpdlxity n` tcl lavirnamlat tcrnugc belqubtl mneudbtina n` its nwa fnmpdlxity$ bae bebpt
tn tcl `bst-fcbagiag situbtina tcrnugc iatlddiglat sigabd eltlftina bae iatlrprltbtina!
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
3/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Jly tlrms
Jly tlrms
bscky spbfl
knuaele rbtinabdity
fnmpdlx bebptivl systlms
fnmpdlxity
fnmpdlxity sfilafl
frlbtivl ldlmlats
frisis
frisis fudturl
frisis mbabglmlat
legl n` fcbns
lmlrglafl
cluristifs
altwnrj tnpndngy
altwnrjs
ana-dialbrity
risj iatlddiglafl
sfbdlbkidity
sld`-nrgbaisbtina
sld`-nrgbaisle fritifbdity
uaflrtbiaty
uaprleiftbkidity
wlbj diajs
wlbj sigabds
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
4/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Ubkdl n` Fnatlats
5
UBKDL N@ FNAULAUV
Iatrneuftina !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2Issuls bae furrlat stbtl n` janwdlegl !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2[ldlvbafl bae iaanvbtivl fcbrbftlr n` tcis tclsis !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;Nkhlftivls `nr tcis tclsis !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6Mltcnendngy bae strufturl n` tcl tclsis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
5/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity Ubkdl n` Fnatlats
Wcbt ei``lrlatibtls tcl fnmpdlx `rnm tcl fnmpdifbtle ia its rnnts brl ant hust nkslrvbkdl
fcbrbftlristifs dijl lmlrglafl bae ana-dialbrity #wcifc widd kl lxpdnrle ia tcl `nddnwiag
fcbptlrs): tcl mbia strufturbd ei``lrlafl dils ia tcl impnrtbafl n` tcl fnaalftinas bae tcl
rldbtinas kltwlla tcl iatlrbftiag$ bae iatlrelplaelat bglats n` tcl systlm! Fnmpdlx systlms
brl udd n` iatlrelplaelafils!06
2!6!2! Fnmpdlx Bebptivl Vystlms
Hnca Cnddbae$ b pinallr ia tcl `ilde n` fnmpdlxity rlfngaisle lbrdy tcbt8
Ucl mlfcbaisms tcbt mleibtl tclsl systlms brl mufc mnrl bdijl tcba sur`bflnkslrvbtinas wnude sugglst! Uclsl mlfcbaisms bae tcl ellplr simidbritils brl impnrtbatlanugc tcbt tcl systlms brl anw grnuple uaelr b fnmmna abml
05
bae fniale tcl tlrm Fnmpdlx Bebptivl Vystlm #FBV)! Cnddbae summbrisls tcl eistiaft jly
`lbturls n` FBV bae eltlrmiale tcbt8
Uclsl systlms fcbagl bae rlnrgbaisl tclir fnmpnalat pbrts tn bebpt tclmsldvls tn tclprnkdlms pnsle ky tclir surrnuaeiags! Ucis is tcl mbia rlbsna tcl systlms brl ei``ifudt tnuaelrstbae bae fnatrnd8 tcly fnastitutl b mnviag tbrglt!0
-
7/29/2019 Coping With Crisis and Complexity. A complexity science-informed approach to crisis management
26/111
Fnpiag witc Frisis bae Fnmpdlxity 2 Nrgbaisbtinas$ Frisis$ bae Fnmpdlxity
_bgl | ;2
Mnrl tcba `nrty ylbrs dbtlr$ Mlrbdi lt bd! el`ial FBV bs8
Vystlms tcbt bebpt bae lvndvl ia tcl prnflss n` iatlrbftiag witc eyabmif lavirnamlats!Bebptbtina bt tcl mbfrn dlvld #tcl 'wcndl' systlm) is fcbrbftlrisle ky lmlrglafl bae sld`-nrgbaisbtina kbsle na tcl dnfbd bebptivl klcbvinur n` tcl systlm's fnastitulats!00
Fnmpdlx systlms cbvl rlflivle iafrlbsle bttlatina `rnm eisfipdials nvlr tcl pbst tcrll
elfbels pbrtifudbrdy siafl Cnddbaes rlslbrfc bae bfbelmif ditlrbturl ia tcl `ilde n`
fnmpdlxity sfilafl ielati`ils tcl `nddnwiag bpprnbfcls$ abmle b`tlr tclir glngrbpcifbd
lmlrglafl8
Ucl Lurnplba Vfcnnd n` fnmpdlxity erbws `rnm pcysifbd sfilafls witc b `nfus na sld`-
nrgbaisbtina$ bevnfbtiag tcl fnaflpts n` 'nrelr nut n` fcbns' bae 'nrelr tcrnugc `duftubtinas !
\siag mbtclmbtifbd mnelds$ tcl Lurnplba Vfcnnd `nfusls na cnw +uanrgbaisle latitils ia b
givla systlm sllmiagdy nrgbaisl tclmsldvls iatn fnnreiabtle strufturls tcbt sustbia nrrlprneufl tclmsldvls wcla sukhlftle tn ba lxtlrabd `dnw n` lalrgy!+07
Ia fnatrbst$ tcl Anrtc Bmlrifba Vfcnnderbws `rnm tcl di`l sfilafls bae mbjls lxtlasivl usl n`
fnmputbtinabd bpprnbfcls! Ucl `nfus dils na bglat-kbsle mnelds tn simudbtl tcl lmlrglafl n`
nrelr bs wldd bs cilrbrfcifbd strufturls! Nal n` tcl jly tclnrils lxpdbias tcbt8
+Vufc b systlm n` bglats lvndvl spnatbalnusdy tn b stbtl n` 'sld`-nrgbaisle fritifbdity #Kbj$2990) bt wcifc tcl sizl bae `rlqulafy n` rlstrufturiag lvlats bmnag bglats is rldbtle ky baiavlrsl pnwlr dbw!+03
Bddla elsfrikls fnmpdlx systlms mnrl tlfcaifbddy8
B fnmpdlx systlm is b 'wcndl' mbel up n` b dbrgl aumklr n` iatlrbftiag 'pbrts' nr 'bglats'$wcifc brl lbfc gnvlrale ky snml rudls n` `nrfl wcifc rldbtls tclir klcbvinur ia b givla timlplrine fnatiaglatdy tn tcl stbtls n` tcl pbst! Z!!!] Bs iaeivieubd pbrts rlspnae tn tclir nwasplfi`if dnfbd fnatlxts ia pbrbddld witc ntclr pbrts$ qubditbtivldy eistiaft lmlrglat pbttlras$prnplrtils bae pclanmlab fba brisl bt tcl dlvld n` tcl systlm elspitl tcl bkslafl n`lxpdifit iatlr-pbrt fnnreiabtina! Nutfnmls n` tcis prnflss n` upwbre fbusbdity brl vlry ei``ifudttn prleift `rnm janwdlegl n` tcl pbrts bae rudls cnwlvlr!
09
@rnm tcis stbtlmlat bdnal$ fnasistlat eistiaguisciag `lbturls fba kl lxtrbftle tcbt brl
sigai`ifbat `nr frisis mbabglmlat bae brl ldbknrbtle upna ia tcl `nddnwiag fcbptlr!
0
Cnw wlddlmkleele isfrisismbabglmlat iaynurnrgbaisbtina>
Cnw n`tla enlsynurnrgbaisbtinatrbia its frisismbabglmlattlbm>
Cnw impnrtbatbrl ynuria`nrmbdfnaalftinas iambabgiag bfrisis>
Cbs ynur frisismbabglmlatsystlm kllabftivbtle ia tclpbst ; ylbrs>
Wcifc typl n`frisis cbvl ynulxplrilafle mnst`rlqulatdy>
Eie ynu `iaeynur frisismbabglmlatsystlml``lftivl>
Wcifc tcrlbt ismnst dijldy tneisrupt ynurkusialss ia tclalxt 2; mnatcs>
;0
;?26-?2-;2228638?7*?5?? Yls
@nrmbdmbabglmlatfnatrndprnflsslsimpdlmlatle Ylbrdy nr dlss Midedy impnrtbat
Mnrl tcba