control charts as an environmental monitoring tool for
TRANSCRIPT
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Control charts as an environmental monitoring tool for decision making
EIANZ Annual ConferenceAaron Gove, Jess Oates and
Robert Archibald29 October 2015
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Why monitor?
o Natural systems are dynamic
o Difficult to predict all impacts prior to development
o Some impacts need to be recognised and managed as they arise
o Basis of adaptive management
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Adaptive management
Evaluate
Adjust
How? What?
When?
Assess risk
Monitor
Implement
Design
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Monitoring challenges
o What to monitor
o Defining ‘normal’ in naturally variable systems
o Agreeing upon definition of impact
o Identifying when management should intervene
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Control charts
o Visual plot of indicator over time
o Focus on environmental outcomes
o Forces the selection of monitoring variables
o Account for natural variability in a system
o Provide clear, robust and transparent thresholds (“control limits”)
o Flexible approach
o An example…
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An example
Year
% ofsurveys
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An example
Year
2sd3sd
% ofsurveys
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An example
Year
2sd3sd
% ofsurveys Trigger criteria
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An example
% ofsurveys
Year
2sd3sd
Threshold criteria
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Multivariate control chartsIs a species assemblage changing?
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Multivariate control chartsIs a species assemblage changing?
Bird assemblage
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Multivariate control chartsIs a species assemblage changing?
Bird assemblage
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Challenges: No baseline period
Development begins
Bu
rro
w d
ensi
ty
Potential impact site
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Include control sitesB
urr
ow
den
sity Development
begins
Potential impact site Control site
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Include control sitesB
urr
ow
den
sity Development
begins
Potential impact site Control site
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Biological control limits
Critical leaf water potential derived from observed limitations to tree condition
Leaf
wat
er p
ote
nti
al
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Remote sensing
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
15
01
60
17
01
80
19
02
00
Co
nd
itio
n in
dic
ato
rV
eget
atio
n c
on
dit
ion
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Summary
• Control charts are numerically robust and transparent
• Focussed on environmental outcomes
• Facilitate decisions on what to monitor and when to intervene
• Technology such as remote sensing is increasing datasets and applications
• How to intervene is still up to managers and understanding recovery of natural systems is still important
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References• Anderson, M. J., & Thompson, A. A. (2004). Multivariate control charts
for ecological and environmental monitoring. Ecological Applications, 14(6), 1921-1935
• Gove, A. D., Sadler, R., Matsuki, M., Archibald, R., Pearse, S., & Garkaklis, M. (2013). Control charts for improved decisions in environmental management: a case study of catchment water supply in south‐west Western Australia. Ecological Management & Restoration, 14(2), 127-134.
• Morrison, L. W. (2008). The use of control charts to interpret environmental monitoring data. Natural Areas Journal, 28(1), 66-73.