construction cost trends central texas conference – november 13, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
CONSTRUCTION COST TRENDSCentral Texas Conference – November 13, 2009
Construction Cost Trends
1. The Last 18 Months2. Current Economic Factors3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking5. What Lies Ahead
1. The Last 18 Months
Producer price index (PPI) for construction vs. consumer price index, 2003-09
PPI for inputs to construction industries: 33%
Consumer price index: 17%
Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) and The Associated General Contractors of America
1. The Last 18 Months
Source: Gerdau Ameristeel
1. The Last 18 Months
Tail end of an overheated market Soaring demand and pricing Collapse of the housing market Financial market implosion Government Intervention Dust begins to settle Chasing the market
1. The Last 18 Months
$
Time
Historical Inflation %
Budgets
Cost
Chasing the Market
1. The Last 18 Months
$/SF
PPI for inputs to construction industries: 33%
Elementary School Case Study
Consumer price index: 17%
2. Current Economic Factors
Foreign demand Petroleum price Texas employment School enrollments Single family housing market Commercial construction market Availability of financing P&P bonding availability Political environment
3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect
Federal program Status of funds Results
3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect
Economic stimulus packageTotal : $787 billion in spending increases, tax
cuts $308 billion in appropriated spending $267 billion in direct spending (refundable
portion of tax credits, unemployment benefits, Medicaid reimbursement to states, etc.)
$212 billion in tax cuts
Source: The Associated General Contractors of America
3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect
Local Project Costs and Inflation History As maintained by the local CEFPI organization
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
General Informationo District Nameo Grade Levelo Bldg Square Footageo Student Capacityo Square Footage per
Studento Bid Dateo Completion Dateo Project Delivery Method
Cost Informationo Site work/Site Athletics o Building Cost
Other Costso Offsite
Roads/Utilities/Lando Design & Testing
Differentiating Featureso Site conditions , etc.
Project Information Sheet contains Basic Information
o Furniture
o Movable Equipmento Library Shelvingo Computerso Security Systemso Telephone Systemso Playground Equipment
o P.A. Systemo Computer Softwareo Textbookso Projector Screenso Landscapingo Televisionso Computer Hardwareo Library Books
Items Budgeted/ Furnished Separately by the Owner
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
Project Information Sheet contains Basic Information
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
Sample of Project Information Sheet
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
Inflation History
Revised 10/27/2009 Capacity
Grade Level
Square Footage
Construction Costs
Cost / SF
Cost / Student
SF / Student
Bid Date or Final GMP Approval Date
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.03 0.01 0.005 0.02 0.005 0.015 0.05 0.1 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.12 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
projected projected projected projected projected projected projected
RRISD Blackland Prairie Elem. 800 PK - 5 94535 $ 10,617,030
$ 112.31
$ 13,271
118.17 Apr-00 $ 10,617,030
$ 10,670,115
$ 10,830,167
$ 11,371,675
$ 12,508,843
$ 13,384,462
$ 14,187,529
$ 14,896,906
$ 16,684,535
$ 16,851,380
$ 17,862,463
$ 18,934,211
$ 20,070,263
$ 21,274,479
$ 22,550,948
$ 23,904,005
$ 112.31
$ 113
114.56
120.29
132.32
141.58
150.08
157.58
176.49
178.26
188.95
200.29
212.31
225.04
238.55
252.86
RRISD Cactus Ranch Elem. 800 PK - 5 94535 $ 11,214,619
$ 118.63
$ 14,018
118.17 Aug-00 $ 11,214,619
$ 11,270,692
$ 11,439,752
$ 12,011,740
$ 13,212,914
$ 14,137,818
$ 14,986,087
$ 15,735,392
$ 17,623,639
$ 17,799,875
$ 18,867,867
$ 19,999,939
$ 21,199,936
$ 22,471,932
$ 23,820,248
$ 25,249,463
$ 118.63
$ 119
121.01
127.06
139.77
149.55
158.52
166.45
186.42
188.29
199.59
211.56
224.25
237.71
251.97
267.09
RRISD Union Hill Elem. 900 PK - 5 106764 $ 14,120,000
$ 132.25
$ 15,689
118.63 Jun-01 $ 14,120,000
$ 14,331,800
$ 15,048,390
$ 16,553,229
$ 17,711,955
$ 18,774,672
$ 19,713,406
$ 22,079,015
$ 22,299,805
$ 23,637,793
$ 25,056,061
$ 26,559,424
$ 28,152,990
$ 29,842,169
$ 31,632,699
$ 132.25
134.24
140.95
155.05
165.90
175.85
184.64
206.80
208.87
221.40
234.69
248.77
263.69
279.52
296.29
HCISD New Elementary (Negley ES)
880 1 - 5 92222 $ 10,514,000
$ 114.01
$ 11,948
104.80 Feb-05 $ 10,514,000
$ 11,144,840
$ 11,702,082
$ 13,106,332
$ 13,237,395
$ 14,031,639
$ 14,873,537
$ 15,765,949
$ 16,711,906
$ 17,714,621
$ 18,777,498
114.01
120.85
126.89
142.12
143.54
152.15
161.28
170.96
181.21
192.09
203.61
HCISD New Elementary (Science Hall)
800 1 - 5 86884 $ 10,443,649
$ 120.20
$ 13,055
108.61 Mar-05 $ 10,443,649
$ 11,070,268
$ 11,623,781
$ 13,018,635
$ 13,148,821
$ 13,937,751
$ 14,774,016
$ 15,660,457
$ 16,600,084
$ 17,596,089
$ 18,651,855
120.20
127.41
133.79
149.84
151.34
160.42
170.04
180.25
191.06
202.52
214.68
LISD New Elementary No. 16 877 PK - 5 100472 $ 13,477,555
$ 134.14
$ 15,368
114.56 May-05 13,477,555
$ 14,286,208
15,000,519
16,800,581
16,968,587
17,986,702
19,065,904
20,209,858
21,422,450
22,707,797
24,070,265
134.14
142.19
149.30
167.22
168.89
179.02
189.76
201.15
213.22
226.01
239.57
LISD New Elementary No. 17 877 PK - 5 100472 $ 14,019,581
$ 139.54
$ 15,986
114.56 May-05 14,019,581
$ 14,860,756
15,603,794
17,476,249
17,651,011
18,710,072
19,832,676
21,022,637
22,283,995
23,621,035
25,038,297
139.54
147.91
155.30
173.94
175.68
186.22
197.40
209.24
221.79
235.10
249.21
SMISD New Elementary (Bowie) 700 K-5 80888 $ 10,026,911
$ 123.96
$ 14,324
115.55 May-05 10,026,911
10,628,526
11,159,952
12,499,146
12,624,138
13,381,586
14,184,481
15,035,550
15,937,683
16,893,944
17,907,581
123.96
131.40
137.97
154.52
156.07
165.43
175.36
185.88
197.03
208.86
221.39
Project Information SpreadsheetOverall
Revised 10/27/2009 Capacity Grade Level
Square Footage
Construction Costs
Cost / SF Cost / Student
SF / Student
Bid Date or Final GMP Approval Date
RRISD Blackland Prairie Elem. 800 PK - 5 94535 $ 10,617,030 $ 112.31 $ 13,271 118.17 Apr-00
RRISD Cactus Ranch Elem. 800 PK - 5 94535 $ 11,214,619 $ 118.63 $ 14,018 118.17 Aug-00
RRISD Union Hill Elem. 900 PK - 5 106764 $ 14,120,000 $ 132.25 $ 15,689 118.63 Jun-01
HCISD New Elementary (Negley ES) 880 1 - 5 92222 $ 10,514,000 $ 114.01 $ 11,948 104.80 Feb-05
HCISD New Elementary (Science Hall) 800 1 - 5 86884 $ 10,443,649 $ 120.20 $ 13,055 108.61 Mar-05
LISD New Elementary No. 16 877 PK - 5 100472 $ 13,477,555 $ 134.14 $ 15,368 114.56 May-05
LISD New Elementary No. 17 877 PK - 5 100472 $ 14,019,581 $ 139.54 $ 15,986 114.56 May-05
SMISD New Elementary (Bowie) 700 K-5 80888 $ 10,026,911 $ 123.96 $ 14,324 115.55 May-05
4. CEFPI Project Cost TrackingProject Information SpreadsheetProject Information
Project Information SpreadsheetBid Date by Year and Actual Inflation Rate
Inflation History
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.03 0.01 0.005 0.02 0.005 0.015 0.05 0.1 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.12 0.01
projected
$ 10,617,030
$ 10,670,115
$ 10,830,167
$ 11,371,675
$ 12,508,843
$ 13,384,462
$ 14,187,529
$ 14,896,906
$ 16,684,535
$ 16,851,380
$ 112.31
$ 113
114.56
120.29
132.32
141.58
150.08
157.58
176.49
178.26
$ 11,214,619
$ 11,270,692
$ 11,439,752
$ 12,011,740
$ 13,212,914
$ 14,137,818
$ 14,986,087
$ 15,735,392
$ 17,623,639
$ 17,799,875
$ 118.63
$ 119
121.01
127.06
139.77
149.55
158.52
166.45
186.42
188.29
$ 14,120,000
$ 14,331,800
$ 15,048,390
$ 16,553,229
$ 17,711,955
$ 18,774,672
$ 19,713,406
$ 22,079,015
$ 22,299,805
$ 132.25
134.24
140.95
155.05
165.90
175.85
184.64
206.80
208.87
$ 10,514,000
$ 11,144,840
$ 11,702,082
$ 13,106,332
$ 13,237,395
114.01
120.85
126.89
142.12
143.54
$ 10,443,649
$ 11,070,268
$ 11,623,781
$ 13,018,635
$ 13,148,821
120.20
127.41
133.79
149.84
151.34
13,477,555
$ 14,286,208
15,000,519
16,800,581
16,968,587
134.14
142.19
149.30
167.22
168.89
14,019,581
$ 14,860,756
15,603,794
17,476,249
17,651,011
139.54
147.91
155.30
173.94
175.68
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0.01 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06projected projected projected projected projected projected
$ 16,851,380
$ 18,934,211
$ 20,070,263
$ 21,274,479
$ 22,550,948
$ 23,904,005
178.26
200.29
212.31
225.04
238.55
252.86
$ 17,799,875
$ 19,999,939
$ 21,199,936
$ 22,471,932
$ 23,820,248
$ 25,249,463
188.29
211.56
224.25
237.71
251.97
267.09
$ 22,299,805
$ 25,056,061
$ 26,559,424
$ 28,152,990
$ 29,842,169
$ 31,632,699
208.87
234.69
248.77
263.69
279.52
296.29
$ 13,237,395
$ 14,873,537
$ 15,765,949
$ 16,711,906
$ 17,714,621
$ 18,777,498
143.54
161.28
170.96
181.21
192.09
203.61
$ 13,148,821
$ 14,774,016
$ 15,660,457
$ 16,600,084
$ 17,596,089
$ 18,651,855
151.34
170.04
180.25
191.06
202.52
214.68
16,968,587
19,065,904
20,209,858
21,422,450
22,707,797
24,070,265
168.89
189.76
201.15
213.22
226.01
239.57
17,651,011
19,832,676
21,022,637
22,283,995
23,621,035
25,038,297
175.68
197.40
209.24
221.79
235.10
249.21
Project Information SpreadsheetInflation Rate Projected
5. What Lies Ahead
Short Term Long Term
5. What Lies Ahead
Aluminum
Copper
West Texas Crude Oil
Price HistoryNovember 1999 thru October 2009
5. What Lies Ahead
Industry depends on specific materials that: Are in demand worldwide Have erratic supply growth Are heavy, bulky or hard to transport
Construction requires physical delivery Thus, industry is subject to price spurts,
transport bottlenecks, fuel price swings Expect 6 to 8% PPI increases, higher
spikes
Outlook for materials (beyond ‘09)
Source: The Associated General Contractors of America
5. What Lies Ahead
Nonres spending: 0 to -5% (more stimulus put in place, maybe gains in retail, higher ed, hospitals)
Res: +5 to +10% (SF up, MF down all year)
Total construction spending: -4% to +2% Materials costs: 0% to +8% Labor costs: +3% or less
Summary for 2010
Source: The Associated General Contractors of America
5. What Lies Ahead
Presented by:
Jimmy Disler, Leander ISD [email protected]
Ed Sevcik, Round Rock ISD [email protected]
Marty Burger, American Constructors [email protected]
Steve McCleskey, Bartlett Cocke [email protected]
CEFPI School Construction Cost Summary http://media.cefpi.org/southern/texasnorth/CTConstructionCostReport102709.xls
Construction Cost Trends