considerations rel/rl for redd+ - unfcccunfccc.int/files/land_use.../pdf/fao_unredd_rl_rel... ·...
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Considerations on REL/RL for REDD+
Danilo Mollicone, FAOUNFCCC Expert Meeting, Bonn 2011
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1990 2000 2005
Historical data: the most common situation for non‐Annex I Parties
Is it feasible to build a REL following an accuracy oriented approach?
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1990 2000 2005 2010
Historical data: the most common situation for non‐Annex I Partiesreference period up to 2010
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HISTORICAL DATA: efforts to fill the gaps
Improved global and regional land use change in forest area
� Landsat 30m samples� consistent 1990‐2000‐2005� both gains and losses to get net change in forest land‐use� detailed review by over 100 national experts
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Methods can be intensified
248 sites @0.5°
10 x 10 km validated20 x 20 km processed
>3 % sample
Field data at each site
Zambia national level
HISTORICAL DATA: efforts to fill the gaps
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Firstly, �the best starting point for creating REL/RLs is the use of historical data. Adjustments could then be made for national circumstances if justified. Deforestation is highly complex ‐ drivers vary significantly by region and are subject to a range of unpredictable variables. Degradation is even more complex. Therefore it is extremely difficult to accurately predict long‐term future deforestation and degradation rates.� *
Secondly, to establish REL/RLs assumptions are necessary, taking into consideration the need for conservative approaches.
* From USA 2011 SBSTA submission
ELEMENTS FOR REL/RLs CONSTRUCTION:
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THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON AS A TIME MACHINE: THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF THE DIFFERENT REL/RLs OPTIONS
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BAU GOVERNANCE
THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON AS A TIME MACHINE: THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF THE DIFFERENT REL/RLs OPTIONS
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2010Estimated emission reduction**
(M tCO2e)
= 825
= 337
= 37
BAU*
Amazon Fund
IPCC***
* Soares‐Filho et al, Nature 2006 ** with a default EF = 367 tCO2/ha *** difference between two annual GHGs inventories
THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON AS A TIME MACHINE: THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF THE DIFFERENT REL/RLs OPTIONS
REDD+ start